1. State of adaptive capacity in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya. By Charles W. Recha Chuka University College, Kenya Department of Arts and Humanities

2. Introduction Study area Methods Results and discussion Conclusion Outline

3. 1.1 Background Climate variability affects livelihoods, especially those dependent on rainfall Impact of CV- sparked initiatives: research, institutions and policy. Gaps still exist in aligning development programs with climate change and variability 1.0 INTRODUCTION

4. To evolve evidence based policy, there is need to assess current adaptation practices and role of socio-economic factorsin adaptation to cc &v Useful in local level non-climatic determinants in adaptation Knowledge of these should close existing gap in climate risk management 1.0 Introduction cont’d

5. Present study seeks to: Determine the perceived impact of climate variability on livelihood Assess the availability and use of attributes of adaptive capacity Findings should help in mainstreaming current & future vulnerabilities in Development 1.0 Introduction cont’d

6. 2.0 STUDY AREA Is found on the Eastern part of Kenya (and Mt. Kenya) Is semi-arid and arid Droughts are common Traversed by 8 permanent rivers Has four main agro-ecological zones Has two rain seasons: MAM & OND

7. Rainfall MAM: LM4(503mm), LM4-5( 409), IL5(408mm) OND: LM4(606mm), LM4-5(527), IL5(386mm) Rain-fed agriculture (LM4, LM4-5) and pastoralism (IL5 & IL6)are the main livelihood activities. Crops: millet, green grams, sorghum, cowpeas maize and beans Main livestock are cattle and goats. 2.0 Study area Cont’d

8. Data: Household survey and interviews Was in four AEZ sites: LM4, LM4-5, IL5, IL6 Interviews: 326 households and 25 practitioners Households respondents were proportional to the population in each site. 3.0 METHODS

9. Analysis: Household survey: Intervention strategies investigated were flexibility, access to and quality of resources and information. X2 test used to test the independence of variables Factor analysis used to detect any underlying structure in the perceived impacts of climate variability. 3.0 METHODS cont’d

10. Livelihood support strategies: Sale of livestock (60%), crops (27%), forest products (17%) and non-wood forest products (10%) Engagement in livelihood support activities was mainly between June and November The main livelihoods are dependant on rainfall. District has high densities of gum arabic and tamarind fruit trees that remain unexploited. Need to develop a market for these products 4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION4.1 Livelihood activities

13. Frequency distribution results show that crop failure (90%), increase in food prices (90%), low pasture productivity(73%), water scarcity (73%)and unexpected sale of livestock (70%) are the most affected in times of extreme variability Factor analysis (PC) results: Variables classified into 4 broad factors: explained 65.5% of the variance with an eigen value of 16.4: Higher loading were recorded on: Livestock impacts-25% (F1) agriculture-17.0% (F2): pest and diseases, loss of soil fertility, reduction in credit sources, reduced yield, increase in food prices Water related impacts-12.1% (F3): reduction in water availability for irrigation and infestation of water by pathogens income-7.4% (F4): unexpected sale of household assets and access to market Most livelihoods are perceived to be affected by rainfall variability. This awareness presents an opportunity to reduce vulnerability 4.2 Impact of rainfall variability on livelihood

14. This would include: Promotion and diversification of livelihoods that are adaptive to the climatology of the district. E.g use of vegetative resources Development of market can encourage adaptation to cc & v appropriate use of early warning information 4.2 Impact of rainfall variability on livelihood

15. 4.3 Attributes and indicators of adaptive capacity Cropping diversity: At least 2 crops per household. Crops mostly drought tolerant: sorghum, millet, green grams and pigeon peas. Two growing seasons: March-May and October-December More dependency on OND rainfall as illustrated by acreage and number of cultivars Opportunity constraint by: a highly variable rainfall Low yields which serve to discourage farmers

16. Land Land tenure is mainly through inheritance Land size: District average- 3.55acres per household. Soil quality: perceived to be good (46%) and fair (35%). Thus agriculture is least affected by land size and soil quality. However, land adjudication has: Sparked conflict along district boundaries Reduced pasture flexibility enjoyed under customary laws These have lowered community adaptive capacity to prevalent climate shocks Resource base

17. Resource base cont’d Human resource: Literacy level in Tharaka district is low (64%-primary level; 13%-sec; 16%-no formal education; 6%-tertiary education). Is a limitation to diffusion of adaptation technology Water resources: Stream/rivers are the main source of water for domestic and livestock. Other sources are boreholes, springs and well. Distance to water point increase from < 2km during the rainy season to about 7km during the dry period as most sources dry up. Sinking of more boreholes and investment in rainwater harvesting would better the situation.

19. Proximity to market and administrative centers: 70% of respondents are within a distance of 5km to a trading centre Nearly half (49%) of respondents thought large markets and (district) administrative centres were far off from their homes 80% were not satisfied with accessibility to market centers Proximity to market centres offer residents an opportunity to access information and engage in development programs and diversify livelihoods in the wake of unreliable outcomes from rain-fed agriculture Markets also important in accessing farm inputs Infrastructure and social amenities

20. Roads: No tarmac road in Tharaka, and the existing all weather roads become impassable during the rainy season. Most have no bridge Respondents not satisfied with infrastructure & social amenities. X2 test results (p<0.01) found the rating of satisfaction level to social amenities significant. These are water, roads, schools, health facilities, administrative centres We therefore need to address these problems as part of the initiative to address the bigger problem of cc & v Infrastructure and social amenities

22. Access to climate forecast: 80% receive forecast but only 13% receive SCF yet it’s the most useful Access to forecast mainly through radio (62%). Extension officers not mentioned. Absence of extension officer in the dissemination pathway is a concern since they offer a better opportunity of interpreting forecasts. Due to prioritization of other projects (rainwater harvesting and NjaaMarufuku Kenya Projects) Forecast considered somewhat accurate by 71% an indication of improved confidence. Improved perception underscore an evolution towards the understanding the nature of forecasts by farmers. The positive attitude has however not translated into decision-making Access to technology & support programs

23. Useful forecast information needed: Rainfall reliability (47%), date of onset (32%) and alternative decisions (21%) Welfare and support programs: Are carried out by government departments, NGOS (Plan International), Church, CBOs Include: relief food (52%), seed distribution (28%), installation of irrigation equipment and boreholes. Reliance on relief food & seed distribution was attributed to frequent drought. Food relief is not sustainable and distribution is political. Limited interaction between research-policy in Tharaka. This has caused a disconnect Access to technology & support programs

24. The main livelihoods in Tharaka is agro-pastoralism. There is un harnessed potential in vegetation resources such as gum arabic and tamarind and Farmers are aware of the impact of rainfall variability on livelihoods. This presents an opportunity to reduce vulnerability. Where as there are institutional and local level adaptation strategies, household adaptive capacity is weakened by institutional political and economic system. This is illustrated by poor roads, low literacy level and limited use of forecast information. It is therefore important for private and public actors to address the underlying causes of vulnerability to rainfall variability in Tharaka such as infrastructure, literacy level and under-utilized water resources as away of strengthening adaptive capacity 5.0 Conclusion

25. The author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the International SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) Secretariat under the program African Climate Change Fellowship Program (2009/2010) for a doctoral study fellowship award and field work Acknowledgment

26. THANK YOU ALL