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SYNERGIES AMONG ADAPTATION, MITIGATION, AND PROFITABILITY Elizabeth Bryan, Claudia Ringler, Barrack Okoba, Jawoo Koo, Mario Herrero, and Silvia Silvestri Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-11 March 2011
Agricultural scenes - Land degradation, reducing livestock,
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low High Food Security Prospects Mitigation Potential Source: Adapted from FAO (2009) Synergies and Tradeoffs between Mitigation and Food Security Biofuels Conservation tillage/ residue management Integrated soil fertility management Improved seed Irrigation (low energy using..) Conservation tillage/residue management Improved fallow Overgrazing Soil nutrient mining Bare fallow GW pumping Mechanized farming Low High
SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS Adaptation Mitigation Profitability
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Linkage between Palmer Drought Severity Index and GDP Growth IFPRI (2006)
SYNERGIES: WHAT THE LITERATURE SUGGESTS Management practices Productivity Variability Adaptation Mitigation potential short term long term       Improved crop varieties and/or types   ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ Depends on variety/type Changing planting dates     ↓ +++   Improved crop/fallow ↓ ↑   ++ High, particularly for rotation with legumes rotation/rotation with legumes Use of cover crops ↑ ↑   ++ High Appropriate fertilizer/manure use ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High, particularly when underutilized as in SSA Incorporation of crop residues ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High Reduced/zero tillage ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Agroforestry ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Irrigation/water harvesting ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ when well designed and maintained Low to high depending on whether irrigation is energy intensive or not Bunds, terraces, ridge and furrow, diversion ditches  ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Low, minus soil carbon losses due to construction  Grass strips ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Positive mitigation benefits Sources: FAO 2009, Smith et al. 2008
PROJECT OBJECTIVES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
STUDY SITES & DESIGN Project District Agroecological zone Freq. ALRMP and Control* Garissa Arid 134 ALRMP Mbeere South Semi Arid 97 Control Njoro Semi Arid 104 SMS, Ltd. Mukurweini Temperate 95 Control Othaya Temperate 88 Vi Agroforestry Gem Humid 96 Control Siaya Humid 96 Total 710 *The survey covered households in Garissa that participated in ALRMP (66) as well as those that did not (68).
METHODS TO ASSESS SYNERGIES/TRADEOFFS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND?
WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND  Land management practice Arid Semi-Arid Temperate Humid Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Soil bunds 0 0 34 20 14 10 23 20 Bench terrace 0 0 2 1 14 29 1 2 Residues 5 12 13 12 4 5 25 15 Grass strips 0 0 17 17 12 9 10 11 Crop rotation/ fallowing 3 - 14 - 9 - 14 - Ridge and furrow 43 12 2 43 10 25 11 60 Inorganic fertilizer 3 0 29 0 76 15 40 0 Manure 43 28 24 20 63 12 37 5
Land management practices and resource use
Land management practices and resource use
Land management practices and resource use
ADAPTATION
WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES HAVE FARMERS ADOPTED?
WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES WOULD FARMERS LIKE TO ADOPT?
MITIGATION
ARE FARMERS AWARE THAT AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES THAT REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE (%)
ABOVE GROUND CARBON STOCK BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-SAND)
YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-CLAY)
TOP MITIGATION PRACTICES (DSSAT)
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES THAT INCREASE SOC (DSSAT MODELING) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES THAT INCREASE SOC (DSSAT MODELING) ,[object Object],[object Object]
ARID ZONE SUMMARY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SEMI-ARID AND TEMPERATE ZONES SUMMARY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HUMID ZONE SUMMARY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PROFITABILITY/ PRODUCTIVITY
40-year average annual revenues from SOC* and yield** (USD/ha)     Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4     RES RES, FERT & MNR RES, FERT, MNR, SWC & ROT FRT, MNR, RES, SWC, ROT, & IRG AEZ Soil Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD/ha) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Arid Clay 1.09 6.14 8.60 150.49 14.76 355.77 23.67 1651.23 Arid Sand 0.69 17.98 1.72 94.12 9.99 536.63 8.20 1391.67 Semi-arid Loam 2.28 149.54 22.22 1180.96 21.66 1363.79 21.10 1522.40 Semi-arid Sand 2.27 71.19 7.59 501.97 5.92 600.27 5.13 661.50 Semi-arid Clay 1.73 256.01 19.41 1921.28 19.19 2235.86 17.31 2337.26 Temperate Loam 1.83 -3.26 23.89 1086.86 23.05 1201.02 21.95 1235.59 Humid Loam 0.31 71.10 12.51 1702.27 12.14 1803.95 11.31 1560.72
WIN-WIN-WIN  STRATEGIES
WIN-WIN-WIN STRATEGIES
POLICY IMPLICATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
POLICY IMPLICATIONS  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
POLICY IMPLICATIONS  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
POLICY IMPLICATIONS  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],THANK YOU

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Barrack Okoba: Agricultural land management: capturing synergies between climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and agricultural productivity

  • 1. SYNERGIES AMONG ADAPTATION, MITIGATION, AND PROFITABILITY Elizabeth Bryan, Claudia Ringler, Barrack Okoba, Jawoo Koo, Mario Herrero, and Silvia Silvestri Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-11 March 2011
  • 2. Agricultural scenes - Land degradation, reducing livestock,
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Low High Food Security Prospects Mitigation Potential Source: Adapted from FAO (2009) Synergies and Tradeoffs between Mitigation and Food Security Biofuels Conservation tillage/ residue management Integrated soil fertility management Improved seed Irrigation (low energy using..) Conservation tillage/residue management Improved fallow Overgrazing Soil nutrient mining Bare fallow GW pumping Mechanized farming Low High
  • 6. SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS Adaptation Mitigation Profitability
  • 7. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Linkage between Palmer Drought Severity Index and GDP Growth IFPRI (2006)
  • 8. SYNERGIES: WHAT THE LITERATURE SUGGESTS Management practices Productivity Variability Adaptation Mitigation potential short term long term       Improved crop varieties and/or types ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ Depends on variety/type Changing planting dates     ↓ +++   Improved crop/fallow ↓ ↑   ++ High, particularly for rotation with legumes rotation/rotation with legumes Use of cover crops ↑ ↑   ++ High Appropriate fertilizer/manure use ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High, particularly when underutilized as in SSA Incorporation of crop residues ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ High Reduced/zero tillage ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Agroforestry ↓ ↑ ↓ + High Irrigation/water harvesting ↑ ↑ ↓ +++ when well designed and maintained Low to high depending on whether irrigation is energy intensive or not Bunds, terraces, ridge and furrow, diversion ditches ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Low, minus soil carbon losses due to construction Grass strips ↓ ↑ ↓ +++ Positive mitigation benefits Sources: FAO 2009, Smith et al. 2008
  • 9.
  • 10. STUDY SITES & DESIGN Project District Agroecological zone Freq. ALRMP and Control* Garissa Arid 134 ALRMP Mbeere South Semi Arid 97 Control Njoro Semi Arid 104 SMS, Ltd. Mukurweini Temperate 95 Control Othaya Temperate 88 Vi Agroforestry Gem Humid 96 Control Siaya Humid 96 Total 710 *The survey covered households in Garissa that participated in ALRMP (66) as well as those that did not (68).
  • 11.
  • 12. WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND?
  • 13. WHAT LAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE FARMERS USING ON CROPLAND Land management practice Arid Semi-Arid Temperate Humid Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Seasonal crops Perennial crops Soil bunds 0 0 34 20 14 10 23 20 Bench terrace 0 0 2 1 14 29 1 2 Residues 5 12 13 12 4 5 25 15 Grass strips 0 0 17 17 12 9 10 11 Crop rotation/ fallowing 3 - 14 - 9 - 14 - Ridge and furrow 43 12 2 43 10 25 11 60 Inorganic fertilizer 3 0 29 0 76 15 40 0 Manure 43 28 24 20 63 12 37 5
  • 14. Land management practices and resource use
  • 15. Land management practices and resource use
  • 16. Land management practices and resource use
  • 18. WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES HAVE FARMERS ADOPTED?
  • 19. WHAT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES WOULD FARMERS LIKE TO ADOPT?
  • 21.
  • 22. FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES THAT REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE (%)
  • 23. ABOVE GROUND CARBON STOCK BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
  • 24. YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-SAND)
  • 25. YIELD AND SOC UNDER ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (GARISSA-CLAY)
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 33. 40-year average annual revenues from SOC* and yield** (USD/ha)     Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4     RES RES, FERT & MNR RES, FERT, MNR, SWC & ROT FRT, MNR, RES, SWC, ROT, & IRG AEZ Soil Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD/ha) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Revenue from carbon (USD/ha) Revenue from yield (USD) Arid Clay 1.09 6.14 8.60 150.49 14.76 355.77 23.67 1651.23 Arid Sand 0.69 17.98 1.72 94.12 9.99 536.63 8.20 1391.67 Semi-arid Loam 2.28 149.54 22.22 1180.96 21.66 1363.79 21.10 1522.40 Semi-arid Sand 2.27 71.19 7.59 501.97 5.92 600.27 5.13 661.50 Semi-arid Clay 1.73 256.01 19.41 1921.28 19.19 2235.86 17.31 2337.26 Temperate Loam 1.83 -3.26 23.89 1086.86 23.05 1201.02 21.95 1235.59 Humid Loam 0.31 71.10 12.51 1702.27 12.14 1803.95 11.31 1560.72
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.

Editor's Notes

  1. --Given the threat of cc to agricultural production and the livelihoods of poor producers, decision-makers should adopt practices that provide the greatest benefits in terms of adaptation, profitability/productivity, and mitigation --Given the positive correlation between soil carbon and crop yield  Agricultural practices that improve soil fertility and enhance carbon sequestration also improve yield
  2. HH survey covered 7 districts and 13 divisions of Kenya These sites cover a range of AEZs including arid, semi-arid, temperate and humid zones, as well as production systems and policy and institutional environments The survey covered the areas in which two Biocarbon Fund-supported carbon sequestration projects are operating. These projects, Sustainable Management Services (SMS), Ltd. and Vi Agroforestry, are the only two land-based agricultural mitigation projects in Africa.
  3. While the number of farmers that did not adjust their farming practices in response to perceived climate change (19 percent) may seem high, this figure is relatively low compared to similar data collected from Ethiopia and South Africa, where 37 percent and 62 percent, respectively, did not adapt to perceived changes in climate Apart from planting trees, the adaptive responses reported frequently require little investment to implement—e.g. purchasing new varieties or crop types, receiving training or information on soil and water conservation
  4. The main desired adaptations (irrigation and agroforestry) require a more significant initial investment by farmers; and, in the case of irrigation, access to water is also crucial. When discussing constraints to implementing these measures farmers reported lack of money or access to credit (63 percent) and lack of access to water (26 percent), in the case of irrigation; and lack of money/credit (55 percent), lack of access to land (6 percent) and water (20 percent), lack of inputs (10 percent), and lack of information (5 percent), in the case of agroforestry/afforestation, as significant impediments to adoption. Despite the relatively lower cost of implementation, a large number of farmers (32 percent) also responded that they would like to change crop variety. These farmers reported no money/credit (36 percent), lack of access to inputs (26 percent), and lack of information (24 percent) as the most major constraints to adopting new varieties.
  5. --Given the positive correlation between soil carbon and crop yield  Agricultural practices that improve soil fertility and enhance carbon sequestration also improve yield