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Adobe Digital Economy Project - September 2016

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In the wake of this summer’s Brexit vote, the U.K. appears to be an attractive destination for travelers. International flights to London Heathrow and London Gatwick are down 8.6% and 8.5% month over month, in contrast to 2.3% decrease in overall prices for all international flights. U.K. residents may soon be seeing prices increase, however: deflation is slowing across the U.K. in select DPI categories, revealing the first signs of inflationary pressures post-Brexit. In the U.S., Labor Day sales contributed to continued deflation for appliances, TVs, and tablets. Appliance prices are down 1.5% between August and September, while TV prices are down 1.0% and tablets 1.3%. TVs, computers, tablets, and electronics have seen double-digit YoY deflation.

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Adobe Digital Economy Project - September 2016

  1. 1. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT SEPTEMBER 2016 UPDATE
  2. 2. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Main takeaways: September 2 § In the wake of this summer’s Brexit vote, the U.K. appears to be an attractive destination for travelers. International flights to London Heathrow and London Gatwick are down 8.6% and 8.5% month over month, in contrast to 2.3%decrease in overall prices for all international flights. Hotels in the UK saw a MoM increase of 3.1% though they are down 18.3%YoY compared to September of 2015 § Deflation is slowing across the U.K. in select DPI categories, revealing the first signs of inflationary pressures post-Brexit § Lower prices for flights to the U.K.as well as MoM declines in prices of flights to Madrid (-5.1%) and Paris (-4.3%) are making flights to Europe cheaper MoM (- 5.5%) than international flights,which saw MoM deflation of only 2.3% § Labor Day sales in the U.S. contributed to continued deflation for appliances, TVs, and tablets. Appliance prices are down 1.5% between August and September, while TV prices are down 1.0% and tablets 1.3%. TVs, computers, tablets, and electronics have seen double-digit YoY deflation § Significant MoM inflation occurred in domestic flights (up 2.4%) where airlines are facing higher fuel prices and employment costs and for computers (1.4%), though both categories are stilldown YoY (7.0% and 10.3%). Other categories including international hotels, grocery, medical equipment, and non prescription drugs saw prices rise MoM § U.S. results signal continued economic stability and low inflation: § In the U.S. DPI domestic airfare prices are up from August 2.4% but still down 7.9% from last September, YoY § Our U.S. Job Seeking Index shows that online job searches have decreased, reflecting fewer job seekers in the labor market § Our U.S. Digital Housing Index shows the largest YoY increase since April in online searches for home purchases and rentals, revealing a strengthening housing market moving into the fall
  3. 3. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Digital Insights Background Based on analysisofaggregated and anonymous datafrom Adobe Marketing Cloud: • AdobeAnalytics and Adobe Mobile Services Thousands ofbrands worldwide including two thirds of Fortune 50 companiesrely on Adobe Marketing Cloud: • $7.50ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Adobe Marketing Cloud powers: • 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers • 9 of10largest hotel groups • 7of10largest airlines **LatestIR Top 500 Report 2015 3 Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services
  4. 4. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Economist Advisors 4 Austan Goolsbee,UniversityofChicago § Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business § Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers § The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama Pete Klenow, Stanford University § Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University § Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco § Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others
  5. 5. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 5 Digital Price Index (DPI) Job Seeking Index (JSI) Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  6. 6. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 6 Digital Price Index (DPI)
  7. 7. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.K. 7 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • $6 of every $10 spent online with top 100 European retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Based on analysis 1 billion website visits and 100k products sold online ONS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: DigitalPrice Index Quantities Sold No Yes Products/quantities updated Annually Daily Number of Products 180,000 100k (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes No Long history Yes No All categories of spending Yes No ** Latest IR U.K. Top 500 Report 2015
  8. 8. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe DPI in the United Kingdom 8 • Our Digital Price Index in the U.K. for groceries shows that grocery prices have deflated by 2.9% YoY in September. Prices dropped 0.52% between August and September, continuing the trend of lowering food prices while the UK still enjoys pre-Brexit terms of trade with the EU • For computers, we see YoY deflation of 13.7%. Deflation in this category appears to be slowing, as deflation slowed MoM from -1.0% in July to - 0.7% in August to 0.3% in September. • Similarly TV prices in the UK continue to fall; the DPI shows YoY deflation of 24.6% between September 2015 to September 2016. Deflation appears to be slowing in this category as well as deflation MoM was 1.3% between August and September, down from 2.9% between July and August.
  9. 9. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.S. 9 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** • $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million products sold online BLS: Consumer Price Index BEA: Personal Consumption Expenditures Adobe: DigitalPrice Index Quantities Sold No No Yes Products/quantities updated Every 2 years Monthly Daily Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 83 thousand (all categories) 2.2 million (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes Yes No Long history Yes Yes No All categories of spending Yes Yes No Index Type Laspeyeres Fisher Ideal Fisher Ideal ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
  10. 10. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Big data in DPI decreases uncertainty 10 DPI CPI Appliances 0.15% 0.46% Airfare 0.08% 0.51% Computers 0.28% 0.49% Furniture and bedding 0.07% 0.31% Grocery 0.10% 0.12% Hotels: domestic 0.04% 2.30% Medical equipment and supplies 0.20% 0.39% Nonprescription Drugs 0.18% 0.47% Sporting Goods 0.12% 0.31% Televisions 0.24% 0.60% Toys 0.25% 0.59%
  11. 11. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges 11 • Televisions have seen higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items • In computers, models priced above $1,200 showing the least deflation in the category • Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  12. 12. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. The Importance of detail: Black Friday 12 • DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it measures quantities and does so in real-time • Lowest prices for TVs in 2015 were Thanksgiving and Black Friday • Data demonstrates retailers trying to start sales earlier – the Sunday and Monday before Thanksgiving saw low prices
  13. 13. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences 13 • Electronics see an average of 80% of online spend on new* products** • 16% of monthlyonline spendfor groceries on new products * Products that have been available for 1 year or less ** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU)
  14. 14. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. August 2016 Recap 14 MoM: August to Septemer MoM: August to September Difference (percentage) Same Sign? YoY: Cumulative August 2015-2016 YoY: Cumulative August 2015-2016 Difference (percentage) Same Sign? DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI Appliances 1.8% -0.9% 2.7% No -5.7% -2.9% -2.8% Yes Computers -0.4% -0.7% 0.3% Yes -12.2% -6.9% -5.3% Yes Domestic Hotels -2.1% -1.5% -0.6% Yes 2.3% 2.5% -0.2% Yes Flights -3.6% -5.5% 1.9% Yes -3.2% -3.7% 0.4% Yes Furniture and bedding 0.2% -1.2% 1.4% No -3.3% -2.9% -0.5% Yes Grocery 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% No -0.9% -1.9% 1.0% Yes Medical equipmentand supplies -1.0% -0.2% -0.8% Yes -1.3% -0.1% -1.2% Yes Nonprescription Drugs -0.8% 0.2% -1.0% No -0.3% -1.2% 0.9% Yes Sporting Goods -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% Yes -5.7% -1.8% -3.9% Yes Televisions -2.9% -1.9% -1.0% Yes -20.9% -20.5% -0.4% Yes Toys 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% No -5.6% -8.1% 2.5% Yes
  15. 15. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. September 2016 Summary 15 • Main deflation in September: • International flights, appliances, tablets, televisions • Main inflation in September: • Domestic flights, computers YoY MoM Appliances -6.1% -1.5% Computers -10.2% 1.4% Electronics -10.7% -0.5% Flights -3.1% 1.3% Domestic Flights -5.7% 2.4% Intl Flights 0.0% -2.3% Furniture and bedding -3.4% -0.1% Grocery -1.0% 0.2% Domestic Hotels 1.0% -0.3% Intl Hotels -3.7% 0.1% Medical equipment and supplies -0.9% 0.3% Nonprescription Drugs 0.2% 0.1% Sporting Goods -5.5% -0.4% Tablet -20.4% -1.3% Televisions -20.8% -1.0% Toys -6.0% -0.8%
  16. 16. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Appliances 16 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.1% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Appliances pricedbetween $600 and $1000 • For September 2016, prices decreased -1.5% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~110 K products • Products include large appliances such as fridges, ovens, washers, dryers as well as smallerappliances such as vacuums, mixers, blenders etc.
  17. 17. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare 17 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -3.1% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • For September 2016, prices increased 1.3% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  18. 18. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: domestic 18 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.7% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY deflation for flights Oregon, Illinois and Colorado • Main YoY inflation for Hawaii, Florida • For September 2016, prices increased 2.4% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  19. 19. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: international 19 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.0% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY deflation for flights to Europe and Africa • Main YoY inflation for flights to South America • For September 2016, prices decreased -2.3% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  20. 20. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics 20 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -10.7% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Electronics priced between $200 and $500 • For September 2016, prices decreased -0.5% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets,wearables,headphones,video games,printers etc..
  21. 21. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: computers 21 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -10.2% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Computers pricedbetween $700 and $1200 • For September 2016, prices increased 1.4% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets,wearables,headphones,video games,printers etc..
  22. 22. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: televisions 22 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -20.8% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Televisions priced greater than $2000 • For September 2016, prices decreased -1.0% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets,wearables,headphones,video games,printers etc..
  23. 23. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: tablets 23 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -20.4% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Tablets priced between $350 and $550 • For September 2016, prices decreased -1.3% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets,wearables,headphones,video games,printers etc..
  24. 24. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Furniture and Bedding 24 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -3.4% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Furniture and bedding priced between $100 and $150 • For September 2016, prices decreased -0.1% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~173 K products • Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products
  25. 25. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Groceries 25 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.0% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • For September 2016, prices increased 0.2% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of all online grocery purchases. It contains transactions for~195k products • The mix of grocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category foronline shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while foroffline shopping it is meat
  26. 26. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: domestic 26 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.0% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY inflation for Nevada, Hawaii, Colorado and Tennessee • Only state showing YoY deflation is New York • For September 2016, prices decreased -0.3% vs August 2016 MoM
  27. 27. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: international 27 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -3.7% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY inflation for Oceania and North America destinations • Main YoY deflation for African and European destinations • For September 2016, prices increased 0.1% vs August 2016 MoM
  28. 28. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Medical Equipment and Supplies 28 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -0.9% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Medical equipment and supplies priced greater than $135 • Main YoY price increases for Medical equipmentand supplies priced between $0 and $10 • For September 2016, prices increased 0.3% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for6,000 products • ” includes supportive and convalescent equipment, dressings and first aid kits, and medical equipment forgeneral use
  29. 29. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Nonprescription drugs 29 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.2% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Nonprescription Drugs priced greater than $40 • Main YoY price increases for Nonprescription Drugs priced between $15 and $25 • For September 2016, prices increased 0.1% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for16 K products • Includes all non-prescription medicines taken by swallowing, applying on yourskin (such as topicals), inhaling, as suppositories, or enemas.
  30. 30. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Sporting Goods 30 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.5% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for SportingGoods priced between $40 and $100 • For September 2016, prices decreased -0.4% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~300 K products • Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc.
  31. 31. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Toys 31 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.0% YoY (September 2015 to September 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Toys priced between $70 and $200 • For September 2016, prices decreased -0.8% vs August 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for~249 K products • Products include toys, games as well as playground equipment
  32. 32. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 32 Job Seeking Index (JSI)
  33. 33. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online job seeking sees steep decline 33 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data frommore than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employercareer pages • Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers** • US online job seeking is down 17.9 % YoY in August • This is indicative of a strong labor market and fewer workers looking for jobs. These data reinforce recent findings from the U.S. Department of Labor stating that U.S. jobless claims are the lowest in decades
  34. 34. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 34 Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  35. 35. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online housing search growth rises 35 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data frommore than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites Online search for purchases and rentals up 17.0% YoY in September, the strongest housing market in the DHI since April 2016, signaling that the housing sector is picking up more steam heading into the fall
  36. 36. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Appendix 36
  37. 37. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index ∑ 𝑃#$ 𝑈#$&' ( #)' ∑ 𝑃#$&' 𝑈#$&' ( #)' ∗ ∑ 𝑃#$ 𝑈#$ ( #)' ∑ 𝑃#$&' 𝑈#$ ( #)' • The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchasedon the current period (month) and a previous period (previous month) to determine actualconsumer’s preferences. Insteadof assuming that consumers preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact that they are constantly changing what they buy. 𝐹𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝜋$ =
  38. 38. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche
  39. 39. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Annual Cumulative Inflation Rates
  40. 40. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics Deflation in Detail • The average price paid for an iPad mini (all models) has decreased by about 40% since the iPad mini 1 was introduced in November 2012. • Although the initial price tag of new models remains constant at around $400, the automatic discount of previous models causes the average price to consistently fall: when the iPad mini 3 was introduced at an average price of $450, the price for the iPad Mini 2 was reduced by 25% to $300. • This data only includes iPad minis sold in retail websites
  41. 41. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM)
  42. 42. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM) – Cont’d
  43. 43. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Job Seeking Online: Traffic Sources • Direct traffic to employment-listing websites is higher than search traffic • Search ranks second
  44. 44. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.

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