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Adobe Digital Economy Project -- July 2017

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In the U.S., topline inflation is down across DPI categories for the fourth month in a row (-0.3% in the all-items index and -0.8% in the all-items less grocery index). This is the first month of deflation in the DPI following four straight months of inflation. Prices remain down year-over-year in the all-items index (-0.7%) and down for the all-items less grocery index (-2.0%). The Adobe DPI for July now includes jewelry, a category which includes men’s and women’s rings, necklaces, watches, and other accessories. The category is up 0.4% in July, consistent with seasonal price changes for this category in the past. Year-over-year, prices are down -1.9% from July 2016. Inflation in July in the U.S. affected travelers purchasing hotels domestically, where inflation is 0.6% month over month. Other categories showing inflation include auto parts (0.7%) and groceries (0.4%). In July, deflation was concentrated in domestic flights (-5.4% MoM) and tablets (-3.2% MoM), and apparel (-1.5%). The sharp decline in flight prices is consistent with the monthly seasonality of the summer travel season as domestic flight prices tend to drop in July. In grocery, inflation in July was driven by staples: in July MoM inflation was highest in dairy products other than cheese and milk (1.5%), breakfast cereals (0.9%), and cheese and related products (0.8%). Across the pond, consumers in the U.K. are facing continued price rises in grocery prices., where food prices are up 0.2% MoM in July and up 2.5% year-over-year for the twelve months ending in July. Twenty states in the U.S. show inflation in July, while 31 states and D.C. show deflation. Price declines for flights across states drove deflation for states that showed overall price declines, while price increases for hotels drove inflation for those states that showed price increases.

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Adobe Digital Economy Project -- July 2017

  1. 1. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT JUNE 2017 UPDATE
  2. 2. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Main Takeaways: July 2  In the U.S., topline inflation is down across DPI categories for the fourth month in a row (-0.3% in the all-items index and -0.8% in the all-items less grocery index). This is the fourth month of deflation in the DPI following four straight months of inflation. Prices remain down year-over-year in the all-items index (-0.7%) and down for the all-items less grocery index (-2.0%)  The Adobe DPI for July now includes jewelry, a category which includes men’s and women’s rings, necklaces, watches, and other accessories. The category is up 0.4% in July, consistent with seasonal price changes for this category in the past. Year-over-year, prices are down -1.9% from July 2016.  Inflation in July in the U.S. affected travelers purchasing hotels domestically, where inflation is 0.6% month over month. Other categories showing inflation include auto parts (0.7%) and groceries (0.4%).  In July, deflation was concentrated in domestic flights (-5.4% MoM) and tablets (-3.2% MoM), and apparel (-1.5%). The sharp decline in flight prices is consistent with the monthly seasonality of the summer travel season as domestic flight prices tend to drop in July.  In grocery, inflation in July was driven by staples: in July MoM inflation was highest in dairy products other than cheese and milk (1.5%), breakfast cereals (0.9%), and cheese and related products (0.8%).  Across the pond, consumers in the U.K. are facing continued price rises in grocery prices., where food prices are up 0.2% MoM in July and up 2.5% year-over- year for the twelve months ending in July.  Twenty states in the U.S. show inflation in July, while 31 states and D.C. show deflation. Price declines for flights across states drove deflation for states that showed overall price declines, while price increases for hotels drove inflation for those states that showed price increases.
  3. 3. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Digital Insights Background Based on analysis ofaggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Experience Cloud: • Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services Thousands of brands worldwide including two thirds of Fortune 50 companies rely on Adobe Experience Cloud: • $7.50ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Experience Cloud ** • Adobe Experience Cloud powers: • 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers • 9 of10largest hotel groups • 7of10largest airlines **Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015 3 Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services
  4. 4. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Economist Advisors 4 Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago  Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business  Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers  Served as the youngest member of President Obama’s cabinet Pete Klenow, Stanford University  Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University  Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others
  5. 5. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 5 Digital Price Index (DPI) Job Seeking Index (JSI) Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  6. 6. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 6 Digital Price Index Methodology (DPI)
  7. 7. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.K. 7 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • $6 of every $10 spent online with top 100 European retailers go through Adobe Experience Cloud ** • Based on analysis 1 billion website visits and 100k products sold online ONS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No Yes Products/quantities updated Annually Daily Number of Products 180,000 100k (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes No Long history Yes No All categories of spending Yes No ** Latest IR U.K. Top 500 Report 2015
  8. 8. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.S. 8 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** • $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Experience Cloud ** • Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million products sold online BLS: Consumer Price Index BEA: Personal Consumption Expenditures Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No No Yes Products/quantities updated Every 2 years Monthly Daily Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 83 thousand (all categories) 2.5 million (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes Yes No Long history Yes Yes No All categories of spending Yes Yes No Index Type Laspeyeres Fisher Ideal Fisher Ideal ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
  9. 9. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Big data in DPI decreases uncertainty 9 DPI CPI Appliances 0.15% 0.46% Airfare 0.08% 0.51% Computers 0.28% 0.49% Furniture and bedding 0.07% 0.31% Grocery 0.10% 0.12% Hotels: domestic 0.04% 2.30% Medical equipment and supplies 0.20% 0.39% Nonprescription Drugs 0.18% 0.47% Sporting Goods 0.12% 0.31% Televisions 0.24% 0.60% Toys 0.25% 0.59%
  10. 10. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges 10 • Televisions have seen higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items in 2015 • For computers, mid-range models priced between $700 and $1,200 showed the highest deflation last year *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  11. 11. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. The Importance of detail: Black Friday discount comparisons 11 • DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it measures quantities and does so in real-time • Prices online for Televisions dropped later in November 2016 than in 2015, with more discounts during the Black Friday week (Monday 11/21 through Cyber Monday), which accounted for more than half of all Televisions units purchased between November and December • Television prices then increased more in December 2016 than they did in December 2015, a sign that retailers were able to capitalize on later shopping
  12. 12. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences 12 • Electronics see an average of 77% of online spend on new* products** • 17% of monthly online spend for groceries on new products * Products that have been available for 1 year or less ** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU)
  13. 13. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. State-by-state inflation: examples of sources of variance 13 1. Different baskets across states • Consumers in western states buy more on organic fruits and vegetables than other regions • Consumers in southern states buy more meats, poultry and fish than other regions 2. Different shopping attitudes, preferences across states • Consumers in states with lower median incomes tend to shop more on heavy-promotion days 3. Different prices for same products across states • Price-only variances across states tend to be bigger in groceries and smaller in consumer electronics
  14. 14. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 14 Digital Price Index Findings, U.K. (DPI)
  15. 15. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. U.K. Food Prices Up Nearly Two Percent Year-Over-Year 15 • U.K. grocery prices show inflation again in July, the third month in a row after a one-month reprieve from rising food prices in April. Adobe DPI for the U.K. shows cumulative inflation for groceries of 2.5% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017). Prices are up 0.2% MoM. Prices have been on the rise since September 2016 • U.K. computers and televisions show YoY deflation through June 2017; prices have been declining in both categories since February. • Computers in the U.K. saw a -10% deflation in July and as a result the category is showing a -0.3% deflation YoY. • Televisions continue to deflate in July, TVs in the U.K. saw a -0.8% deflation in July, bringing the category to -16.9% YoY.
  16. 16. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 16 Digital Price Index Findings, U.S. (DPI)
  17. 17. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Slower inflation and deflation in June 17 • Price changes lean towards deflation in July: 31 out of 50 states plus D.C. are showing price declines, while only 20 states are showing price increases
  18. 18. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotel Prices Driving Inflation, Flights Driving Deflation 18 Highest inflation by state Lowest inflation by state State July MoM Inflation Major Inflation Drivers Wyoming 1.1% Hotels**, Alcohol Maine 0.6% Hotels**, Medical Equipment and Supplies Vermont 0.6% Alcohol, Computers Montana 0.5% Hotels**, Grocery New York 0.4% Hotels**, Auto Parts State July MoM Deflation Major Deflation Drivers Colorado -0.4% Flights*, Computers Mississippi -0.4% Flights*, Computers Illinois -0.6% Flights*, Computers South Carolina -0.6% Computers, Flights* Alaska -0.8% Hotels***, Alcohol * Flight prices are determined by the state of flight origin ** Hotel prices reflect hotel properties in a given state *** New categories introduced in this month’s Adobe DPI
  19. 19. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. June 2017 U.S. Recap 19 MoM: April to June MoM: April to June Difference (percentage) Same Sign? YoY: Cumulative June 2016-2017 YoY: Cumulative June 2016-2017 Difference (percentage) Same Sign? DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI Alcohol -0.2% -0.4% 0.2% Yes -1.6% 0.1% -0.3% No Appliances -1.6% -1.1% -0.5% Yes -4.1% -3.4% -0.7% Yes Apparel -1.8% -1.5% -0.3% Yes -4.1% -0.6% -3.4% Yes Auto Parts 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% Yes -0.4% -0.2% -0.1% Yes Computers 0.3% 0.5% -0.2% Yes -2.0% -4.3% 2.3% Yes Flights -0.6% -1.4% 0.8% Yes 3.6% -4.4% 8.0% No Furniture and bedding -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% No -4.3% -0.8% -3.5% Yes Grocery 0.3% -0.3% 0.6% No 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% No Hotels 0.9% 1.1% -0.2% Yes 5.0% -0.5% 5.6% No Jewelry*** -0.8% -2.0% 1.2% Yes -4.1% 1.4% -5.5% No Medical equipment and supplies 0.9% -0.3% 1.2% No -0.4% -0.1% -0.3% Yes Nonprescription drugs 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% No 1.0% 1.3% -0.3% Yes Personal care products 0.0% 0.3% -0.3% Yes -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% Yes Pet Products 0.0% -0.3% 0.3% Yes 0.5% -0.8% 1.3% No Sporting goods -0.4% -0.1% -0.3% Yes -5.6% -2.0% -3.6% Yes Televisions -0.2% 2.7% -2.9% No -13.2% -11.4% -1.8% Yes Tools & Home Improvement -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% Yes -1.0% -0.3% -0.7% Yes Toys -0.1% -1.1% 1.0% Yes -6.1% -9.0% 3.0% Yes Weighted Average Inflation* -0.2% -0.4% 0.2% Yes -0.9% -0.7% -0.2% Yes Weighted Aggregate Inflation, Less Grocery** -0.6% -0.6% 0.0% Yes -1.9% -1.2% -0.7% Yes * Weighted average inflation is calculated using CPI-U relative component weights (2014-2015) across the shared categories in the DPI and the CPI, less apparel ** Grocery is a large component of the current CPI weights, so changes in grocery prices drive the majority of weighted average inflation. As we add more categories (like housing, auto etc.), these aggregate numbers will change *** New category addition to DEP this month *** New categories introduced in this month’s Adobe DPI
  20. 20. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. July 2017 U.S. Summary 20 • Main MoM inflation in July: • Auto parts, domestic hotels, groceries, and jewelry • Main MoM deflation in July: • Int’l flights, domestic flights, tablets YoY MoM Alcohol -1.4% 0.0% Apparel -4.4% -1.5% Appliances -2.6% -0.9% Auto Parts 0.2% 0.7% Computers -2.2% -1.4% Electronics -6.8% -0.9% Flights 2.9% -4.2% Domestic Flights 2.4% -5.4% Intl Flights 5.7% 0.0% Furniture and bedding -5.1% -1.0% Grocery 1.0% 0.4% Domestic Hotels 3.2% 0.6% Intl Hotels 4.7% 0.1% Jewelry*** -1.9% 0.4% Medical Equipment and Supplies -1.4% -0.5% Nonprescription Drugs 1.0% 0.3% Personal Care Products -0.3% 0.2% Pet Products 1.2% -0.1% Sporting Goods -5.0% 0.1% Tablet -17.0% -3.2% Televisions -13.0% -2.0% Tools & Home Improvement -1.4% 0.2% Toys -5.6% -0.8% Weighted Average Inflation* -0.7% -0.3% Weighted Aggregate Inflation, Less Grocery** -2.0% -0.8% * Weighted average inflation is calculated using CPI-U relative component weights (2014-2015) across the shared categories in the DPI and the CPI, less apparel ** Grocery is a large component of the current CPI weights, so changes in grocery prices drive the majority of weighted average inflation. As we add more categories (like housing, auto etc.), these aggregate numbers will change *** New product category added to the DEP this month
  21. 21. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Alcohol 21 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.4% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Prices for Beer show cumulative inflation of 2.8% YoY • Prices for Spirits show cumulative inflation of 4.2% YoY • Prices for Wine show cumulative deflation of -4.3% YoY • For July 2017, prices increased 0.0% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used reflect transactions for ~120 K products
  22. 22. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Apparel 22 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -4.4% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • For July 2017, prices decreased -1.5% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1.5 m products • Products include clothes for women’s, men’s, boys, girls, infants, and footwear
  23. 23. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Appliances 23 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -2.6% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Appliances priced between $200 and $400 • For July 2017, prices decreased -0.9% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~110 K products • Products include large appliances such as fridges, ovens, washers, dryers as well as smaller appliances such as vacuums, mixers, blenders etc
  24. 24. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Auto Parts 24 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.2% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Auto Parts priced between $0 and $70 • Main YoY price increases for Auto Parts priced between $140 and $200 • For July 2017, prices increased 0.7% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used reflect transactions for ~300 K products
  25. 25. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare 25 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 2.9% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • For July 2017, prices decreased -4.2% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  26. 26. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: domestic 26 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 2.4% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Largest monthly deflation for flights to and from Illinois (-10.7%), Colorado (-10.3%), and California (-7.1%) • For July 2017, prices decreased -5.4% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  27. 27. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: international 27 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 5.7% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Largest price increases for airfare were to Africa, with inflation of 22.9% YoY • For July 2017, prices increased 0.0% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  28. 28. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics 28 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.8% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Electronics priced greater than $1500 • For July 2017, prices decreased -0.9% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  29. 29. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: computers 29 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -2.2% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Computers priced between $1200 and $1600 • Main YoY price increases for Computers priced between $0 and $300 • For July 2017, prices decreased -1.4% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~63 K products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  30. 30. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: televisions 30 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -13.0% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Televisions priced greater than $2000 • Main YoY price increases for Televisions priced between $0 and $300 • For July 2017, prices decreased -2.0% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~33 K products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  31. 31. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: tablets 31 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -17.0% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Tablets priced between $550 and $900 • For July 2017, prices decreased -3.2% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~13 K products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  32. 32. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Furniture and Bedding 32 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.1% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Furniture and bedding priced between $250 and $750 • For July 2017, prices decreased -1.0% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~173 K products • Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products
  33. 33. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Groceries 33 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.0% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • For July 2017, prices increased 0.4% vs June 2017 MoM • Main MoM inflation in other dairy products (1.5%), breakfast cereals (0.7%), and cheese and related products (0.6%) METHODOLOGY: • Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of all online grocery purchases. It contains transactions for ~195k products • The mix of grocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category for online shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while for offline shopping it is meat
  34. 34. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: domestic 34 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 3.2% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Largest inflation in July to Maine (7.7%), Nevada (6.0%), Wyoming (3.7%) • Largest deflation in July to Nebraska (-5.8%), D.C. (- 5.1%), and Alaska (-4.2%) • For July 2017, prices increased 0.6% vs June 2017 MoM
  35. 35. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: international 35 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 4.7% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Largest price increases were for hotels in Africa (1.6% inflation MoM) • Largest price decreases were for hotels in South America (-0.7% deflation YoY) • For July 2017, prices increased 0.1% vs June 2017 MoM
  36. 36. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Jewelry 36 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.9% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • For July 2017, prices increased 0.4% vs June 2017 MoM
  37. 37. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Medical Equipment and Supplies 37 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.4% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Medical equipment and supplies priced between $45 and $135 • For July 2017, prices decreased -0.5% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~6,000 products • Includes supportive and convalescent equipment, dressings and first aid kits, and medical equipment for general use
  38. 38. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Nonprescription drugs 38 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.0% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Nonprescription Drugs priced greater than $40 • Main YoY price increases for Nonprescription Drugs priced between $0 and $10 • For July 2017, prices increased 0.3% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~16 K products • Includes all non-prescription medicines taken by swallowing, applying on your skin (such as topicals), inhaling, as suppositories, or enemas.
  39. 39. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Personal care products 39 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -0.3% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Personal care products priced between $10 and $30 • Main YoY price increases for Personal care products priced greater than $150 • For July 2017, prices increased 0.2% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~110 K products • Includes cosmetics, lotion, hair (shampoo, conditioner) and nail care
  40. 40. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Pet products 40 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.2% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Pet Products priced greater than $80 • Main YoY price increases for Pet Products priced between $0 and $10 • For July 2017, prices decreased -0.1% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~70 K products • Includes pet food & treats, kitty litter and accessories (leashes, pet beds)
  41. 41. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Sporting Goods 41 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.0% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Sporting Goods priced between $200 and $350 • For July 2017, prices increased 0.1% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~300 K products • Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc.
  42. 42. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Tools & Home Improvement 42 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.4% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Tools & Home Improvement priced greater than $600 • For July 2017, prices increased 0.2% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~225 K products
  43. 43. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Toys 43 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.6% YoY (July 2016 to July 2017) • Main YoY price decreases for Toys priced between $0 and $30 • For July 2017, prices decreased -0.8% vs June 2017 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~249 K products • Products include toys, games as well as playground equipment
  44. 44. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 44 Job Seeking Index (JSI)
  45. 45. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online job seeking continues YoY declines 45 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employer career pages • Adobe Experience Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers** U.S. online job seeking is down -17.4% YoY in July
  46. 46. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 46 Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  47. 47. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online housing search grows YoY 47 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites Online search for purchases and rentals is up 10.8% YoY in July
  48. 48. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Appendix 48
  49. 49. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. DPI Coverage of U.S. CPI Categories 49 DPI Category February 2017 DPI Weights All-Items All-Items Minus Groceries Grocery 54.00% N/A Furniture and bedding 5.16% 11.22% Hotels 4.99% 10.85% Personal care products 4.79% 10.40% Tools & Home Improvement 4.61% 10.03% Flights 4.27% 9.27% Pet Products 4.01% 8.72% Alcohol 3.99% 8.68% Sporting goods 2.95% 6.40% Auto Parts 2.62% 5.71% Nonprescription drugs 2.45% 5.33% Toys 2.00% 4.35% Computers 1.87% 4.07% Appliances 1.21% 2.63% Televisions 0.66% 1.44% Medical equipment and supplies 0.41% 0.89% Shelter Food Away From Home Vehicles Apparel Electricity, gas etc. Grocery Furniture Lodging Personal Care Np. Drugs To be added to DPI Professional services Hospital services Current DPI Unlikely
  50. 50. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (tablets) 50 • Tablets have seen higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items • The greatest price decrease and increase in November and December were for tablets priced between $350 and $600 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  51. 51. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (televisions) 51 • The highest priced televisions have have seen faster deflation than lower priced items • The greatest price decrease in November and increase in December were for TVs priced between $600 and $1,000 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  52. 52. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (televisions) 52 • Mid-range computers have seen faster deflation than lower and higher priced models • The greatest price decrease in November were for mid range computers between $700 and $1,200 while the greatest price increase in December were for lower priced models between $300 and $700 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  53. 53. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∗ ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 • The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchased on the current period (month) and a previous period (previous month) to determine actual consumer’s preferences. Instead of assuming that consumers preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact that they are constantly changing what they buy. 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 =
  54. 54. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche
  55. 55. © 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.

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