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Dr Jeremy Woods, Imperial College

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Dr Jeremy Woods, Imperial College

  1. 1. LAND USE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: THE ROLE OF BIOENERGY IN THE UK #UKADBiogas @adbioresources CHAIR: PHILIPP LUKAS, FUTURE BIOGAS KEYNOTES: GUY SMITH, NFU DR JEREMY WOODS, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON
  2. 2. Developing a new Bioenergy Strategy (for the UK) Jeremy Woods ADBA Conference, NEC, Birmingham 2nd July 2015
  3. 3. What is sustainable bioenergy and what to measure? Climate Change Global / Regional Energy Security Economic Development Local / Consumer Usability / reliability Environment / health [inc air & water quality] Food Security Cost
  4. 4. Is land constrained at the Global level? Conflicts surrounding bioenergy are nearly always to do with land use / availability: - Revisions to the EU Renewable Energy Directive: the ‘food cap’ - Revisions to the US RFS - UK vacillation on biofuels and bioelectricity policy Food security & development are critical dimensions e.g. Wilson & Conway (2012). ONE BILLION HUNGRY: CAN WE FEED THE WORLD? ‘Global population over the past fifty years has increased 110% while global cropland has only increased by 10%, indicating a lack of available new land’ • Are we really running out of land globally? For farmers it has been less costly to increase yields rather than expand into ‘new’ land…
  5. 5. Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently / effectivelyeffectivelyeffectivelyeffectively • Contrary to latest Cambridge report we are not running out of land but don’t have clear perspective on how best to use it • What is the UK’s comparative advantage? • How to achieve ‘sustainable intensification’? CISL, 2014. The best use of agricultural land. http://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/natcap
  6. 6. SCOPE-FAPESP-BE-BASIC Reporting a global assessment of Bioenergy & Sustainability 137 experts from 24 countries Bioenergy now Bioenergy expansion Energy security Food security Environmental and climate security Sustainable development and Innovation The much needed science Developed and developing regions Numbers, cases, issues, solutions 779-page Ebook Download at http://bioenfapesp.org
  7. 7. Recommendations Invest in agriculture modernization and use of degraded land for energy crops Adapt technologies for use is poor communities Develop good governance and supporting policies both at local, national and global scales Findings Conclusions Global scale food and energy production is sufficient to meet future anticipated needs Hunger and malnutrition are primarily problems of distribution/access, poverty, not land scarcity There is enough land Future food and part of energy demands can be satisfied Bioenergy can bring social development in rural areas Depends on careful planning of land use, governance and integrated practices Food Security: conclusions - Osseweijer et al. Chapter 4
  8. 8. Land and bioenergy (Woods et al, Chp 9. SCOPE 72) 2010 Pasture Agriculture Forests Other 2050 Pasture: • 40% of world’s pasture may have no livestock on it • 26% of world’s land currently provides <5% calories and <3% dietary protein • x9 scope for improved livestock yields with improved pastures and genetics Sheehan. Madrid Livestock and Climate Change Workshop, 2014 A renewed focus on pasture intensification and agriculture livestock integration is emerging with major implications for management of manure, nutrients, wastes and water Much of the world’s pasture land is extremely unproductive not because of fundamental biophysical constraints but due to socio-economic and developmental reasons
  9. 9. Pasture (3.4 billion ha) Cropland (1.5 billion ha) Agricultural Land (Ha) 0 %Dietaryprotein 20 40 60 80 100 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Land Use for Food Production %HarvestedCrops 20 40 60 80 100 Land needed to produce 138 EJ modern bioenergy (biofuel, heat, electricity) 1.5 billion ha marginal & very marginal A fraction could conceivably grow some energy crops (e.g. agave) Added land needed for very large bioenergy contribution, 2050: 19% prime & good land not now planted in row crops after deducting for land expected to be needed for food. 140 EJ (20 to 25% primary energy): 200 Mha Additional for increased protected land + forest plantations: 180 Mha Additional for food, 2050: 70 Mha 1.4 billion ha prime & good Suitability for some energy crops (e.g. grass) likely > food crops
  10. 10. The Global CalculatorA positive vision of the future This report uses evidence from the Global Calculator to show that: 1. The world could eat well, travel more and live in more comfortable homes and prevent dangerous climate change 2. But to do so, we need to transform the technologies and fuels we use 3. We also need to make smarter use of our limited land resources and expand forests by around 5-15% by 2050 What is the UK’s role? Should it include agriculture in its climate change policy?
  11. 11. 0 50 100 150 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Diet Land Use Renewable Energy GlobalEmissions(GtCO2e) 0% -100% +100% +200%135 (+152%) 5.8°C 75 (+40%) 4.0°C 41 (-24%) 2.8°C 26 (-52%) 2.3°C 85 (+58%) 4.4°C 71 (+31%) 3.8°C 54 (0%) 3.2°C 33 (-38%) 2.5°C 63 (+18%) 3.5°C 50 (-7%) 3.1°C 38 (-30%) 2.7°C 38 (-30%) 2.6°C PercentChange 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 TemperatureIncrease(°C) = average temperature increase = global emissions IEA 4DS = 53.7 3.2°C to year 2100 Scenario Levels: 1 — minimal abatement 2 — ambitious 3 — very ambitious 4 — extremely ambitious Source: http://tool.globalcalculator.org (compiled by Mark Laser, Dartmouth College, USA Global Calculator: Comparing Diet, Land and Renewable Energy Options for Climate Mitigation
  12. 12. How could bioenergy systems be deployed to close the N-cycle (AD is a key enabler) Alongi Skenhall, S., Berndes, G., and Woods, J. (2013), Integration of bioenergy systems into UK agriculture - new options for management of nitrogen flows. Biomass and Bioenergy 54:219-226. Doi: j.biombioe.2013.04.002 See also: Malaj et al. 2014. Organic chemicals jeopardize the health of freshwater ecosystems on the continental scale. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1321082111
  13. 13. Key issuesKey issuesKey issuesKey issues • Opportunity for policy to drive sustainable bioenergy through a new / emerging integrated land management prospectus covering: – Food security: investment urgently needed in energy service provision into agriculture – bioenergy as an enabler for food security (Lynd & Woods, A new hope for Africa. Nature; 2011) • ‘Sustainable Intensification’ = agricultural landscape integration providing opportunities for innovative farming and new markets. – Energy security: bioenergy will be a major consumer of biomass and user of land globally potentially providing a significant share (c. 10 to 20%) of global energy by 2050 – Climate security: without significant shares of modern bioenergy the 2ºC or even 4ºC targets look almost impossible to meet – http://globalcalculator.org • From this view, bioenergy is not a competitor to food security but an enabler for more resilient & productive landscapes • UK bioenergy policy is simply not addressing these issues and is virtually non-existent beyond 2020 • UK is missing a major opportunity to enhance UK agricultural competitiveness, resilience and climate mitigation potential by viewing land competition as the dominant outcome from expanding bioenergy policy (as per CISL, 2014 report)
  14. 14. Thank YouThank YouThank YouThank You Jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/icept http://bioenfapesp.org/scopebioenergy/index.phphttp://bioenfapesp.org/scopebioenergy/index.php http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/climate-calculator/
  15. 15. Ecosystem Complexity Multi-scalar Patch Landscape Region Multi-Region Global Erica Smithwick, smithwick@psu.edu Armen Kemanian, Ethan Davis, The Pennsylvania State University
  16. 16. LAND USE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: THE ROLE OF BIOENERGY IN THE UK #UKADBiogas @adbioresources CHAIR: PHILIPP LUKAS, FUTURE BIOGAS KEYNOTES: GUY SMITH, NFU DR JEREMY WOODS, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

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