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Personal	
  Finance
Financial	
  DropTalk	
  Series	
  
Part	
  I	
  
April	
  23,	
  2014	
  
Presented	
  by	
  Adam	
  Nash
Part	
  I:	
  Personal	
  Finances	
  	
  
Part	
  II:	
  401k	
  Facts	
  
Part	
  III:	
  Equity	
  Overview
Team	
  Finance	
  Presents…
This	
  presentation	
  is	
  not	
  intended	
  
as	
  an	
  alternative	
  to	
  financial	
  
advice	
  from	
  an	
  appropriately	
  
qualified	
  professional.	
  	
  If	
  you	
  
have	
  any	
  specific	
  questions	
  
regarding	
  any	
  financial	
  matter	
  
you	
  should	
  consult	
  a	
  professional	
  
financial	
  advisor.
Disclaimer
PERSONAL FINANCE
wealthfront.com
Adam Nash @adamnash
April 23, 2014
FOR EVERYONE
wealthfront.com |
Caveats & Preface
• I am not a financial planner
• This presentation is not financial advice
• You would be extremely foolish to make investment
decisions based solely on the content of this
presentation or discussion
• The opinions in this deck are intended purely to provoke
discussion & further education
5
wealthfront.com |
Why Personal Finance?
• Poorly covered in traditional education, even
top tier universities
• Not technically difficult, but signal:noise ratio
is terrible
• Massive impact on your life
- Money is one of the top 3 reasons 

for marital problems
6
wealthfront.com |
Fast Five Finance Basics
1. Behavioral Finance Basics
2. Liquidity is Undervalued
3. Cash Flow Matters
4. The Magic of Compounding
5. Good Investing is Boring
7
How many of you think
you are rational with
your money?
(show of hands)
You are NOT rational
ANCHORING MENTAL ACCOUNTING CONFIRMATION &
HINDSIGHT BIAS
GAMBLER’S FALLACY
OVERCONFIDENCEHERD BEHAVIOR OVERREACTION &

AVAILABILITY BIAS
LOSS AVERSION
(PROSPECT THEORY)
wealthfront.com |
Anchoring
• People estimate answers to new /
novel problems with a bias towards
reference points
• Example: 1974 Study
• Most common examples:
• Price you bought a stock at
• High point for a stock
10
wealthfront.com |
Mental Accounting
• Money is fungible, but people put it
in separate “mental accounts”
• Lost movie tickets example
• “Found Money” problem
• Vacation fund & credit card debt
11
wealthfront.com |
Confirmation & Hindsight Bias
• We selectively seek information
that support pre-existing
theories, and ignore / dispute
information that disproves
them.
• We overestimate our ability to
predict the future based on the
“obviousness” of the past.
(example: real estate)
12
wealthfront.com |
Gambler’s Fallacy
• We see patterns in independent,
random chains of events
• We believe that, based on series of
previous events, an outcome is
more likely than odds actually
suggest
• Coin flip example
• It’s because with human behavior,
there are no “independent” events
13
wealthfront.com |
Herd Behavior
• We have a tendency to mimic the
actions of the larger group
• Crowd psychology is a major
contributor to bubbles (believed)
• Easier to be “wrong with everyone”
than “right and alone”
• No one gets fired for buying IBM?
14
wealthfront.com |
Overconfidence
• In one study, 74% of investment
managers believe they deliver
above average returns.
• Positively correlated with High
IQ...
• Learn humility early
15
wealthfront.com |
Overreaction & Availability Bias
• Overreact to recent events
• Overweight recent trends
• Studies demonstrate that checking
stock prices daily leads to more
trading and worse results on
average
• Worse in high tech, because we are
immersed in “game changers”
16
Choice B:

You have a 100% chance of gaining
$500.
You have $1,000 and
you must pick one of
the following choices:
Choice A: 

You have a 50% chance of gaining
$1,000, and a 50% chance of gaining $0.
Choice B:

You have a 100% chance of
losing $500.
Now, you have $2,000
and you must pick one
of the following choices:
Choice A: 

You have a 50% chance of losing
$1,000, and a 50% chance of losing $0.
wealthfront.com |
Loss Aversion
(aka Prospect Theory)
• We hate losses more than we love
winning
• Average loss aversion is 3:1 (!)
• Affects views on wide range of
situations, including taxes, holding
on to losing stocks, “sunk cost”
mistakes
19
It’s OK to not be rational.
wealthfront.com |
It’s OK to Not Be Rational
• The key is that humans are predictably irrational
• Know your own flaws, and you can set up systems to
account for them
• Self-awareness is key

(yes, my Mom is a psychologist...)
21
wealthfront.com |
Liquidity
• Almost universally undervalued
• Strictly defined - it’s the
quantification of how much money
you can get, and how fast.
• Liquidity is the power to take
advantage of great investment
opportunities
• Liquidity is also, in the end, the
only thing that matters when you
need to pay for something.
22
wealthfront.com |
Liquidity & Returns
• In almost all cases, liquidity is inversely
correlated with returns
• Examples:
- Cash = very liquid
- Private equity = very illiquid
• Common mistake: Safety != Liquidity
23
wealthfront.com |
Practical Outcome:
Emergency Funds
• Standard recommendation is that you
have 3-6 months of living expenses in
cash / cash-equivalents.
• That number increases if you are in
highly volatile industry / career.
• Worth considering length of time for
potential job search.
24
wealthfront.com |
Cash Flow
• The ultimate secret to personal finance is
quite simple:
- Spend less than you make

(on an ongoing basis)
• Very easy to measure, but few people do.
Annual budget is a great idea.
• Don’t forget to model in annual expenses
& “personal spending”
25
wealthfront.com |
Savings Targets
• What’s the right number? 3%? 6%?10%? 20%?
- There is no question - the more you save, the
more secure you are. Income comes & goes, but
expenses / lifestyle are sticky!
• A lot of models assume working 40 years, and
producing savings to generate 80% of working
income.
- These models don’t actually match anyone’s real
world experience.
- There are a lot of models out there, and rules of
thumb, but it’s important to run the numbers
yourself.
26
wealthfront.com |
The Magic of Compounding
• Not convinced that Albert Einstein said it was the
greatest force in the universe.
• It’s the key to almost all long term financial planning.
• Exponentials are bad in algorithmic cost, good in
savings returns.
27
wealthfront.com |
Simple Model
• Rule of 72
• In Excel, for each year, just use 

=POWER(1+rate, year)
• 4% over 20 years is 2.19x
• 8% over 20 years is 4.66x
• Careful: it works on debt just as well as savings...
in reverse!
28
wealthfront.com |
The Benefits of An Early
Start
• Compounding really takes off over long time periods
Years Return at 8%
10 2.16x
20 4.66x
30 10.06x
40 21.72x
50 46.9x
In most retirement
planning models, money
saved between ages 25 -
35 produces more money
than all savings between
35 - 65!
29
wealthfront.com |
The Dangers of Debt
• Bankruptcy is literally when you can’t pay your debts.
You can’t go bankrupt if you don’t have debt.
• You will never find an investment that pays 8%
guaranteed, let alone 20%+
• You will find *tons* of credit offers out there that will
charge you that.
• “Bad” debt is toxic, your best return is to pay it off. But
emergency fund takes precedence.
30
wealthfront.com |
Good Investing is Boring
• No one wants to be average, but with investing, average
is actually well above average.
• You will beat most mutual funds, and a large majority of
your peers with simple, low-cost index funds.
• Asset allocation explains ~90% of the variance between
fund performance
31
wealthfront.com |
Basic Asset Allocation
• Different types of assets (stocks, bonds, etc) have
different volatility & return characteristics
• There is an efficient frontier of combinations that
can maximize return for a given volatility
• Complication: historical performance does not
predict future performance
32
wealthfront.com |
Simple Operating Model
• 2 hours of work per year.
• Pick an asset allocation that is appropriate for your
emotional character & time frame & goals.
• For each asset class, pick the cheapest index fund with
the lowest drift and best liquidity.
• Rebalance every year.
33
wealthfront.com |
Recommended Books
• WSJ Guide to Understanding Money & Investing
• The Millionaire Next Door
• A Random Walk Down Wall Street
• The Essays of Warren Buffett
• Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits
• The Intelligent Investor
• Devil Take the Hindmost
• When Genius Failed
• Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
• http://blog.adamnash.com/2007/02/14/personal-finance-
education-series-2-recommended-books/
34
wealthfront.com |
Disclosure
35
Text
Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a
solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any
security. Financial advisory services are only provided to
investors who become Wealthfront clients pursuant to a
written agreement, which investors are urged to read and
carefully consider in determining whether such agreement is
suitable for their individual facts and circumstances. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, and any
hypothetical returns, expected returns, or probability
projections may not reflect actual future performance. 
Investors should review Wealthfront’s website for additional
information about advisory services.   
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Personal Finance for Everyone (Dropbox 2014)

  • 1. Personal  Finance Financial  DropTalk  Series   Part  I   April  23,  2014   Presented  by  Adam  Nash
  • 2. Part  I:  Personal  Finances     Part  II:  401k  Facts   Part  III:  Equity  Overview Team  Finance  Presents…
  • 3. This  presentation  is  not  intended   as  an  alternative  to  financial   advice  from  an  appropriately   qualified  professional.    If  you   have  any  specific  questions   regarding  any  financial  matter   you  should  consult  a  professional   financial  advisor. Disclaimer
  • 4. PERSONAL FINANCE wealthfront.com Adam Nash @adamnash April 23, 2014 FOR EVERYONE
  • 5. wealthfront.com | Caveats & Preface • I am not a financial planner • This presentation is not financial advice • You would be extremely foolish to make investment decisions based solely on the content of this presentation or discussion • The opinions in this deck are intended purely to provoke discussion & further education 5
  • 6. wealthfront.com | Why Personal Finance? • Poorly covered in traditional education, even top tier universities • Not technically difficult, but signal:noise ratio is terrible • Massive impact on your life - Money is one of the top 3 reasons 
 for marital problems 6
  • 7. wealthfront.com | Fast Five Finance Basics 1. Behavioral Finance Basics 2. Liquidity is Undervalued 3. Cash Flow Matters 4. The Magic of Compounding 5. Good Investing is Boring 7
  • 8. How many of you think you are rational with your money? (show of hands)
  • 9. You are NOT rational ANCHORING MENTAL ACCOUNTING CONFIRMATION & HINDSIGHT BIAS GAMBLER’S FALLACY OVERCONFIDENCEHERD BEHAVIOR OVERREACTION &
 AVAILABILITY BIAS LOSS AVERSION (PROSPECT THEORY)
  • 10. wealthfront.com | Anchoring • People estimate answers to new / novel problems with a bias towards reference points • Example: 1974 Study • Most common examples: • Price you bought a stock at • High point for a stock 10
  • 11. wealthfront.com | Mental Accounting • Money is fungible, but people put it in separate “mental accounts” • Lost movie tickets example • “Found Money” problem • Vacation fund & credit card debt 11
  • 12. wealthfront.com | Confirmation & Hindsight Bias • We selectively seek information that support pre-existing theories, and ignore / dispute information that disproves them. • We overestimate our ability to predict the future based on the “obviousness” of the past. (example: real estate) 12
  • 13. wealthfront.com | Gambler’s Fallacy • We see patterns in independent, random chains of events • We believe that, based on series of previous events, an outcome is more likely than odds actually suggest • Coin flip example • It’s because with human behavior, there are no “independent” events 13
  • 14. wealthfront.com | Herd Behavior • We have a tendency to mimic the actions of the larger group • Crowd psychology is a major contributor to bubbles (believed) • Easier to be “wrong with everyone” than “right and alone” • No one gets fired for buying IBM? 14
  • 15. wealthfront.com | Overconfidence • In one study, 74% of investment managers believe they deliver above average returns. • Positively correlated with High IQ... • Learn humility early 15
  • 16. wealthfront.com | Overreaction & Availability Bias • Overreact to recent events • Overweight recent trends • Studies demonstrate that checking stock prices daily leads to more trading and worse results on average • Worse in high tech, because we are immersed in “game changers” 16
  • 17. Choice B:
 You have a 100% chance of gaining $500. You have $1,000 and you must pick one of the following choices: Choice A: 
 You have a 50% chance of gaining $1,000, and a 50% chance of gaining $0.
  • 18. Choice B:
 You have a 100% chance of losing $500. Now, you have $2,000 and you must pick one of the following choices: Choice A: 
 You have a 50% chance of losing $1,000, and a 50% chance of losing $0.
  • 19. wealthfront.com | Loss Aversion (aka Prospect Theory) • We hate losses more than we love winning • Average loss aversion is 3:1 (!) • Affects views on wide range of situations, including taxes, holding on to losing stocks, “sunk cost” mistakes 19
  • 20. It’s OK to not be rational.
  • 21. wealthfront.com | It’s OK to Not Be Rational • The key is that humans are predictably irrational • Know your own flaws, and you can set up systems to account for them • Self-awareness is key
 (yes, my Mom is a psychologist...) 21
  • 22. wealthfront.com | Liquidity • Almost universally undervalued • Strictly defined - it’s the quantification of how much money you can get, and how fast. • Liquidity is the power to take advantage of great investment opportunities • Liquidity is also, in the end, the only thing that matters when you need to pay for something. 22
  • 23. wealthfront.com | Liquidity & Returns • In almost all cases, liquidity is inversely correlated with returns • Examples: - Cash = very liquid - Private equity = very illiquid • Common mistake: Safety != Liquidity 23
  • 24. wealthfront.com | Practical Outcome: Emergency Funds • Standard recommendation is that you have 3-6 months of living expenses in cash / cash-equivalents. • That number increases if you are in highly volatile industry / career. • Worth considering length of time for potential job search. 24
  • 25. wealthfront.com | Cash Flow • The ultimate secret to personal finance is quite simple: - Spend less than you make
 (on an ongoing basis) • Very easy to measure, but few people do. Annual budget is a great idea. • Don’t forget to model in annual expenses & “personal spending” 25
  • 26. wealthfront.com | Savings Targets • What’s the right number? 3%? 6%?10%? 20%? - There is no question - the more you save, the more secure you are. Income comes & goes, but expenses / lifestyle are sticky! • A lot of models assume working 40 years, and producing savings to generate 80% of working income. - These models don’t actually match anyone’s real world experience. - There are a lot of models out there, and rules of thumb, but it’s important to run the numbers yourself. 26
  • 27. wealthfront.com | The Magic of Compounding • Not convinced that Albert Einstein said it was the greatest force in the universe. • It’s the key to almost all long term financial planning. • Exponentials are bad in algorithmic cost, good in savings returns. 27
  • 28. wealthfront.com | Simple Model • Rule of 72 • In Excel, for each year, just use 
 =POWER(1+rate, year) • 4% over 20 years is 2.19x • 8% over 20 years is 4.66x • Careful: it works on debt just as well as savings... in reverse! 28
  • 29. wealthfront.com | The Benefits of An Early Start • Compounding really takes off over long time periods Years Return at 8% 10 2.16x 20 4.66x 30 10.06x 40 21.72x 50 46.9x In most retirement planning models, money saved between ages 25 - 35 produces more money than all savings between 35 - 65! 29
  • 30. wealthfront.com | The Dangers of Debt • Bankruptcy is literally when you can’t pay your debts. You can’t go bankrupt if you don’t have debt. • You will never find an investment that pays 8% guaranteed, let alone 20%+ • You will find *tons* of credit offers out there that will charge you that. • “Bad” debt is toxic, your best return is to pay it off. But emergency fund takes precedence. 30
  • 31. wealthfront.com | Good Investing is Boring • No one wants to be average, but with investing, average is actually well above average. • You will beat most mutual funds, and a large majority of your peers with simple, low-cost index funds. • Asset allocation explains ~90% of the variance between fund performance 31
  • 32. wealthfront.com | Basic Asset Allocation • Different types of assets (stocks, bonds, etc) have different volatility & return characteristics • There is an efficient frontier of combinations that can maximize return for a given volatility • Complication: historical performance does not predict future performance 32
  • 33. wealthfront.com | Simple Operating Model • 2 hours of work per year. • Pick an asset allocation that is appropriate for your emotional character & time frame & goals. • For each asset class, pick the cheapest index fund with the lowest drift and best liquidity. • Rebalance every year. 33
  • 34. wealthfront.com | Recommended Books • WSJ Guide to Understanding Money & Investing • The Millionaire Next Door • A Random Walk Down Wall Street • The Essays of Warren Buffett • Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits • The Intelligent Investor • Devil Take the Hindmost • When Genius Failed • Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk • http://blog.adamnash.com/2007/02/14/personal-finance- education-series-2-recommended-books/ 34
  • 35. wealthfront.com | Disclosure 35 Text Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. Financial advisory services are only provided to investors who become Wealthfront clients pursuant to a written agreement, which investors are urged to read and carefully consider in determining whether such agreement is suitable for their individual facts and circumstances. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and any hypothetical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance.  Investors should review Wealthfront’s website for additional information about advisory services.