1. Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at Vanderbilt University March 17, 2010

2. Housing Stimulus Impact Tax Credit and Higher Loan Limit 2 million 1st-time buyers by end of November Additional 2.4 million buyers (1st time and many repeat buyers) by end of June 2010 About 1 million induced-impact Existing Home Sales gets 15% boost Home Price gets 3% to 5% support Preservation of Middle-Class Wealth

3. Recent Pending Home Sales Recovery pre-dominantly in lower-end and taking longer to close in recent months Source: NAR

4. Bifurcated Recovery $ thousand % change from one year ago Homes priced under $100K Homes priced above $500K Source: NAR

5. Aggregate Months Supply In thousand units Source: NAR

6. National Existing Home Sales Pre-boom sales Source: NAR

7. Vacation Home Sales Nationwide Thousand units Source: NAR

8. First-Time Buyers Used Up or Pent-Up Demand ? In year 2000 (pre-boom) 11 million renters with qualifying income to buy a median priced home In 2009 16 million renters with qualifying income to buy a median priced home Most renters are not qualified and should not be homeowners

9. First-Time Buyers Used Up or Pent-Up Demand ?

10. Household Formation(2-year moving average)

12. No difference from buyer’s perspective

13. Major differences on market impact

14. $8,000 or 4% decline value means $730 billion in housing wealth destruction

15. Consumer wealth effects

17. Housing Wealth to Rise ($4 trillion wealth loss in housing from peak) If additional $8,000 price decline … $700 billion further loss $ billion Source: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate Source: Federal Reserve

18. Metro Median Home Price $ thousand Riverside Indianapolis Source: NAR

19. National Existing Home Price

20. Overcorrection Needs to be Halted(Home Price to Income Ratio) Stay within Budget and all will be OK ! Source: NAR

21. Mortgage Payment to Income(by middle income person buying a median priced home) Stay within Budget and all will be OK ! Source: NAR

22. Latest Home Price Trend % change from one year ago FHFA in Red NAR in blue Case-Shiller in Green

23. Housing Starts: Too Much to Too Little New Units Needed 3 million more people each year … 1 to 1.4 million household formation … need to account for 300,000 demolitions …. need 1.3 to 1.7 new units

25. Fannie-Freddie … future reform without private profit and taxpayer loss

27. Total Payroll Jobs in U.S. Job Changes in U.S. (Monthly Payroll Job Change) In thousands Source: BLS

28. Total Payroll Jobs in U.S. Temp Hire Job Changes in U.S. (monthly payroll job change) In thousands Source: BLS

29. Total Payroll Jobs in Michigan In thousands Source: BLS

30. Total Payroll Jobs in Washington D.C. Metro In thousands Source: BLS; (12-month moving average)

31. Federal Budget Deficit Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections Source: CBO, NAR estimate

32. Federal Housing Policy Tax Favoritism Mortgage interest deduction Capital gains tax exclusion Property tax deduction But who pays taxes? Ownership and Positive Externalities Student test scores, teen pregnancy, juvenile delinquency What is the proper homeownership rate? Any Ownership vs Successful Ownership

33. Economic Outlook Unemployment Rate Peak at 10.5% in few months before going down consistently

34. Housing Outlook

35. Commercial and Residential Property Prices Index = 100 in 1990 Case-Shiller Residential MIT Commercial 2009 data is for Q2

36. Who Is Buying?

37. Credit Crisis 2008: Libor vs. Fed Funds Rate Lehman Brothers belly up Subprime acting up Bear Stearns

38. Credit Crunch Ending? Libor Rates improving Junk Bond yields becoming less wild Banks making profit … but are they getting too big again (75% of assets controlled by 10 banks) Federal Reserve lending at zero (though not to consumers) Not Yet … Need to see Lower rate on jumbo mortgages Lower rate on second home purchases Lower rate on condo purchases Lower rate on commercial real estate loans

39. Office Market Fundamentals

40. Office Rent Growth

41. Commercial Market Outlook 2008 to 2009 Net absorption turns negative Rising Vacancy Rates and Stagnant Rent Markedly Fewer Transactions Property Prices Falling Distress Rising 2010 Economic recovery Local market recovery Commercial recovery with lag time Modestly Positive net absorption Rent struggles to move positive