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Small Data: Why Big Data
Needs A Paradigm Shift,
And Ashley Madison Leak
Reveals If Bigger Is Better
When it comes to data...
PART I
Small Data: Why Big Data
Needs A Paradigm Shift
Why I’m here today
• Building data-driven products & acquiring users at
Gilt.com, Moda Operandi, LivingSocial & Groupon
• ...
Why YOU are here today
The REAL reason why you’re here today
https://twitter.com/danariely/status/287952257926971392
Big data myths
1. Big data requires an expensive
enterprise platform
2. Big data needs a lot of data (duh)
3. Big data is ...
Technology for technology sake
http://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/neo-at-ogilvy/
The Big Data-Industrial Complex
“No one ever got fired for buying IBM*”
* Or promoted
Not enough data just enough data
“Companies brag about the
size of their datasets the way
fishermen brag about the
size of their fish. They claim
access to...
“Today’s companies have
an insatiable appetite for
data, mistakenly believing
that more data always
creates more value. Bu...
We need a paradigm shift: 4Vs to 4Ps
1. Volume
2. Variety
3. Velocity
4. Veracity
5. (Value)
1. Platform
2. Processes
3. P...
“We’ve let ourselves become
enchanted by big data only
because we exoticize
technology. We’re impressed
with small feats a...
“There will be a shortage of talent necessary for
organizations to take advantage of big data. By 2018,
the United States ...
http://andrewchen.co/2012/04/27/how-to-be-a-growth-hacker-an-airbnbcraigslist-case-study/
“The new job title of “Growth
Ha...
PART II
Case Study: Ashley Madison
Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
When it comes to data that
is...
Giving data scientists a huge boner
Q1: Are Sagittarius men
more likely to cheat?
Are Sagittarius men more likely to cheat?
http://www.linda-goodman.com/ubb/Forum24/HTML/214289.html
http://nakedtruthastro...
“Sagittarius
people LOVE
to cheat”
http://www.irinatee.com/2015/05/15/how-each-zodiac-sign-cheats-in-relationships
2,889,795
2,165,282
1,465,211
14,651,394
1,385,661
1,395,485
1,424,279
14,694
662,248
1,273,765
1,376,697
1,260,117
1,378,...
“Two-thirds of men and women claimed their birthdays fell
in January. This is a standard sign of people picking the first
...
662,248
1,260,117
1,273,765
1,376,697
1,378,801
1,385,661
1,395,485
1,424,279
1,465,211
2,165,282
2,889,795
Pisces
Taurus
...
Not Rocket Science
Not Rocket Science
Q2: What are the most
popular sexual kinks?
1: "Threesome" 31: "Curious - Submission"
3: "Being Dominant/Master" 32: "Dressing Up/Lingerie"
4: "Being Submissive/Slave...
“Conventional & Oral Sex”
8,851
26,231
159,374
366,256
378,410
400,060
425,900
477,548
596,051
612,137
642,139
662,161
691...
“Kissing & Talking”
26
1,457
18,498
97,424
100,982
125,059
125,476
126,945
133,346
136,345
148,360
157,839
164,174
196,044...
Q3: Do sexual kinks
change over time?
Sexual preferences by birth year
Q4: What’s the LTV and
Churn Rate of AM users?
Why investors don’t fund dating
•Built-in churn
•Dating has a shelf-life
•Paid acquisition channels are expensive
•City-by...
1*(1-0.8)*(1-0.0015)^11 = 20% annual retention
= 80% annual churn
y = -0.0015x + 0.0738
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1st
...
~$400 USD LTV (annual)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun...
Not Rocket Science (again)
A few parting words
• People >>> Platforms,
Processes & Politics
• Small is beautiful
• Get your hands dirty
(SQL min, pyt...
Recommended reading
Stay in touch!
• sheji@acommerce.asia
• Twitter: @sheji_acommerce
• https://th.linkedin.com/in/shejiho
WE ARE HIRING!
EMAI...
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better
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Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better

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aCommerce Chief Marketing Officer, Sheji Ho, debunks big data myths and why small companies shouldn't fear it. Case study using Ashley Madison leaked data to explain why 'bigger' doesn't always mean better.

“Today’s companies have an insatiable appetite for data, mistakenly believing that more data always creates more value. But big data is often dumb data,” says Peter Thiel.

Veröffentlicht in: Daten & Analysen
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Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better

  1. 1. Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift, And Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better When it comes to data that is...
  2. 2. PART I Small Data: Why Big Data Needs A Paradigm Shift
  3. 3. Why I’m here today • Building data-driven products & acquiring users at Gilt.com, Moda Operandi, LivingSocial & Groupon • Took a data science class during my MBA (python) • Undergrad in Industrial Engineering (math, stats, operations research) • Crappy coding skills… but master at Googling and “Stackoverflowing”
  4. 4. Why YOU are here today
  5. 5. The REAL reason why you’re here today https://twitter.com/danariely/status/287952257926971392
  6. 6. Big data myths 1. Big data requires an expensive enterprise platform 2. Big data needs a lot of data (duh) 3. Big data is the domain for data scientists
  7. 7. Technology for technology sake http://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/neo-at-ogilvy/
  8. 8. The Big Data-Industrial Complex
  9. 9. “No one ever got fired for buying IBM*” * Or promoted
  10. 10. Not enough data just enough data
  11. 11. “Companies brag about the size of their datasets the way fishermen brag about the size of their fish. They claim access to endless terabytes of information. The advantages seem obvious: the more you know, the better.” http://techcrunch.com/2015/09/10/big-data-doesnt-exist
  12. 12. “Today’s companies have an insatiable appetite for data, mistakenly believing that more data always creates more value. But big data is often dumb data.”
  13. 13. We need a paradigm shift: 4Vs to 4Ps 1. Volume 2. Variety 3. Velocity 4. Veracity 5. (Value) 1. Platform 2. Processes 3. People 4. Politics 5. (Python) Tech-focused People-focused
  14. 14. “We’ve let ourselves become enchanted by big data only because we exoticize technology. We’re impressed with small feats accomplished by computers alone but we ignore big achievements from complementarity because the human contribution makes them less uncanny.”
  15. 15. “There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of big data. By 2018, the United States alone could face a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions.” “One of the complaints about the data scientists trained in computer science departments is that they’re “just technical”, understanding algorithms well, but lacking important skills in problem formulation, evaluation, and analysis generally. On the other hand, those trained in business schools tend to have underdeveloped technical skills.” http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation http://jattenberg.github.io/PDS-Fall-2013/
  16. 16. http://andrewchen.co/2012/04/27/how-to-be-a-growth-hacker-an-airbnbcraigslist-case-study/ “The new job title of “Growth Hacker” is integrating itself into Silicon Valley’s culture, emphasizing that coding and technical chops are now an essential part of being a great marketer… The role of the VP of Marketing, long thought to be a non-technical role, is rapidly fading and in its place, a new breed of marketer/coder hybrids have emerged.”
  17. 17. PART II Case Study: Ashley Madison Leak Reveals If Bigger Is Better When it comes to data that is...
  18. 18. Giving data scientists a huge boner
  19. 19. Q1: Are Sagittarius men more likely to cheat?
  20. 20. Are Sagittarius men more likely to cheat? http://www.linda-goodman.com/ubb/Forum24/HTML/214289.html http://nakedtruthastrology.com/tag/sagittarius
  21. 21. “Sagittarius people LOVE to cheat” http://www.irinatee.com/2015/05/15/how-each-zodiac-sign-cheats-in-relationships
  22. 22. 2,889,795 2,165,282 1,465,211 14,651,394 1,385,661 1,395,485 1,424,279 14,694 662,248 1,273,765 1,376,697 1,260,117 1,378,801 Aquarius Aries Cancer Capricorn Gemini Leo Libra NULL Pisces Sagittarius Scorpio Taurus Virgo Male Ashley Madison users by zodiac sign
  23. 23. “Two-thirds of men and women claimed their birthdays fell in January. This is a standard sign of people picking the first month that pops up in the drop-down menu.” http://gizmodo.com/almost-none-of-the-women-in-the-ashley-madison-database-1725558944
  24. 24. 662,248 1,260,117 1,273,765 1,376,697 1,378,801 1,385,661 1,395,485 1,424,279 1,465,211 2,165,282 2,889,795 Pisces Taurus Sagittarius Scorpio Virgo Gemini Leo Libra Cancer Aries Aquarius Male Ashley Madison users by zodiac sign (removed outlier)
  25. 25. Not Rocket Science
  26. 26. Not Rocket Science
  27. 27. Q2: What are the most popular sexual kinks?
  28. 28. 1: "Threesome" 31: "Curious - Submission" 3: "Being Dominant/Master" 32: "Dressing Up/Lingerie" 4: "Being Submissive/Slave" 33: "Erotic Movies" 6: "Bondage" 34: "Erotic Tickling" 7: "Conventional Sex" 36: "Extended Foreplay/Teasing" 11: "Fetishes" 37: "Gentleness" 14: "Nothing Kinky" 38: "Good With Your Hands" 15: "One-Night Stands" 39: "Kissing" 17: "Role Playing" 40: "Light Kinky Fun" 18: "Sex Talk" 41: "Likes to be Watched/Exhibitionism" 19: "Spanking" 42: "Likes to Give Oral Sex" 21: "Experimenting with Tantric Sex" 43: "Likes to Receive Oral Sex" 22: "Transvestitism" 44: "Likes to Go Slow" 23: "Experimenting with Sex Toys" 45: "Lots of Stamina" 23: "Exploring with Sex Toys" 46: "Open to Experimentation" 26: "Aggressiveness" 48: "Sensual Massage" 27: "Blindfolding" 49: "Sharing Fantasies" 28: "Bubble Bath for 2" 50: "Someone I Can Teach" 29: "Cuddling & Hugging" 51: "Someone Who Can Teach Me" 30: "Curious - Domination" 52: "You Like to Cross Dress"
  29. 29. “Conventional & Oral Sex” 8,851 26,231 159,374 366,256 378,410 400,060 425,900 477,548 596,051 612,137 642,139 662,161 691,530 730,698 736,498 772,333 896,542 998,149 1,087,388 1,144,944 1,187,368 1,211,059 1,220,975 1,337,108 1,405,972 1,471,559 1,512,308 1,583,323 1,715,264 1,751,583 1,756,430 1,848,718 1,867,378 2,005,945 2,063,411 2,118,767 2,534,957 2,578,721 2,666,920 22: "Transvestitism" 52: "You Like to Cross Dress" 14: "Nothing Kinky" 4: "Being Submissive/Slave" 6: "Bondage" 31: "Curious - Submission" 30: "Curious - Domination" 41: "Likes to be Watched/Exhibitionism" 3: "Being Dominant/Master" 32: "Dressing Up/Lingerie" 34: "Erotic Tickling" 26: "Aggressiveness" 11: "Fetishes" 19: "Spanking" 21: "Experimenting with Tantric Sex" 27: "Blindfolding" 50: "Someone I Can Teach" 44: "Likes to Go Slow" 51: "Someone Who Can Teach Me" 17: "Role Playing" 45: "Lots of Stamina" 28: "Bubble Bath for 2" 33: "Erotic Movies" 37: "Gentleness" 1: "Threesome" 49: "Sharing Fantasies" 23: "Exploring with Sex Toys" 29: "Cuddling & Hugging" 46: "Open to Experimentation" 40: "Light Kinky Fun" 36: "Extended Foreplay/Teasing" 48: "Sensual Massage" 38: "Good With Your Hands" 15: "One-Night Stands" 18: "Sex Talk" 39: "Kissing" 43: "Likes to Receive Oral Sex" 42: "Likes to Give Oral Sex" 7: "Conventional Sex"
  30. 30. “Kissing & Talking” 26 1,457 18,498 97,424 100,982 125,059 125,476 126,945 133,346 136,345 148,360 157,839 164,174 196,044 219,018 226,286 237,838 244,494 246,792 251,932 253,982 260,325 262,478 279,325 291,200 324,262 324,850 330,030 333,450 367,978 370,054 386,923 395,946 397,165 433,330 446,278 448,078 456,529 491,929 52: "You Like to Cross Dress" 22: "Transvestitism" 14: "Nothing Kinky" 30: "Curious - Domination" 3: "Being Dominant/Master" 11: "Fetishes" 50: "Someone I Can Teach" 6: "Bondage" 34: "Erotic Tickling" 21: "Experimenting with Tantric Sex" 41: "Likes to be Watched/Exhibitionism" 31: "Curious - Submission" 4: "Being Submissive/Slave" 27: "Blindfolding" 26: "Aggressiveness" 33: "Erotic Movies" 15: "One-Night Stands" 1: "Threesome" 19: "Spanking" 17: "Role Playing" 28: "Bubble Bath for 2" 44: "Likes to Go Slow" 45: "Lots of Stamina" 51: "Someone Who Can Teach Me" 32: "Dressing Up/Lingerie" 46: "Open to Experimentation" 36: "Extended Foreplay/Teasing" 37: "Gentleness" 49: "Sharing Fantasies" 40: "Light Kinky Fun" 48: "Sensual Massage" 23: "Exploring with Sex Toys" 38: "Good With Your Hands" 29: "Cuddling & Hugging" 7: "Conventional Sex" 42: "Likes to Give Oral Sex" 43: "Likes to Receive Oral Sex" 18: "Sex Talk" 39: "Kissing"
  31. 31. Q3: Do sexual kinks change over time?
  32. 32. Sexual preferences by birth year
  33. 33. Q4: What’s the LTV and Churn Rate of AM users?
  34. 34. Why investors don’t fund dating •Built-in churn •Dating has a shelf-life •Paid acquisition channels are expensive •City-by-city expansion sucks •Hard to exit •Demographic mismatch with investors http://andrewchen.co/why-investors-dont-fund-dating/
  35. 35. 1*(1-0.8)*(1-0.0015)^11 = 20% annual retention = 80% annual churn y = -0.0015x + 0.0738 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st 22nd 23rd 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st 32nd 33rd 34th 35th 36th 37th 38th 39th 40th 41st 42nd 43rd 44th 45th 46th 47th 48th 49th 50th 51st 52nd 53rd 54th Monthly churn rates by cohort Credits: https://twitter.com/pat_pwt
  36. 36. ~$400 USD LTV (annual) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Projection Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Lifetime Value per Paying Customer Cohort Credits: https://twitter.com/pat_pwt
  37. 37. Not Rocket Science (again)
  38. 38. A few parting words • People >>> Platforms, Processes & Politics • Small is beautiful • Get your hands dirty (SQL min, python pref)
  39. 39. Recommended reading
  40. 40. Stay in touch! • sheji@acommerce.asia • Twitter: @sheji_acommerce • https://th.linkedin.com/in/shejiho WE ARE HIRING! EMAIL: JOHN.THORNTON@ACOMMERCE.ASIA

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