Calculating the environmental impacts of public action -- Nils Axel Braathen,...
dimiz_research_expertise_2015
1. 2015
Public enterprise for
electricity generation in
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Zinaida Dimitrijevic
RESEARCH INTERESTS AND[
EXPERTISE]
Short insight-Policy making for environmental protection in electricity generation by using CBA and
MCDA (which means using avoided damages (i.e. calculation of external costs) compared with
investments costs
2. 2010 Finished master study named
Environment protection and safety
Master thesis is done with professor of economy (Dr Kasim Tatic)
The field of research was methodology ExternE and software EcoSense
The external costs were calculated, explained, and compared with EU's average
external costs for the first time for Bosnia and Herzegovina's thermal power plants.
So I became familiar with methodology ExternE and usage of software EcoSense
Web.
2011
The paper named „External costs from coal-fired thermal plants and sulphur dioxide
emission limit values for new plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH)“ has been
published. In this research the external costs calculated for the four scenarios and
then avoided external costs (i.e. benefits) compared with investments and operating
and maintenance (OM) costs i.e. environmental cost-benefit analyse is applied for
BH conditions. Considering the principle of sustainable development (impact on
economy and society) it is recommended that emission limit value of SO2 for new
thermal plants should be 400mg/m3
instead the 200mg/m3
because social costs are
the same for both values only the structure of costs is different.
2012
The paper named “The economically acceptable scenarios for investments in
desulphurization and denitrification on existing coal-fired units in Bosnia and
Herzegovina” is published. This research deals with air emission decreasing from
existing thermal plants. In this paper market instruments for emission decreasing in
poor country like BH is suggested because costs for abatement equipment are lower
and in the first step emission decreasing is rather high. This research is some kind of
national emission reduction plan for electricity sector. The research is done by using
real data on emissions into the air from existing power plants in BH and by
calculation of OM costs according EU methodology. This research stressed needs for
economically emission decreasing in developing country by using markets
instruments rather than command and control measures. Once again it is stressed
that according the sustainable development the influent on economy and society
has to be taken into account because high increment of electricity price could cause
economy shock and group of poor people push under the general line of poverty.
2012
The paper named “Sustainability assessment of increasing renewable energy
sources penetration - JP Elektroprivreda B&H case study” has been published.
Using sustainability indicators and once again using avoided damages (which
means that calculation of external costs is done) and cost benefit analyse the
optimal scenario for increasing renewable scenario penetration in public electricity
enterprise is given. Final results are given by using multi criteria decision analyses
with compering two scenarios: one named “as usually” and the second one named
“BH”. Circumstances in developing countries (like low GDP, unemployment,
sharply increment of electricity price have to be taken into account.
3. 2015
Doctoral thesis is done according these three published papers and model for
policy making regarding emission decrement into the air due to electricity
generation is given.
Abstract of doctoral thesis is as follows:
When adopting different policies one has to keep in mind that sustainable
development should become the main objective of all sectors and policies,
including policies in preserving clean air and climate change mitigation due to
electricity generation from fossil fuels combustion. For the adoption of such
policies a common method for decision making is conducting an environmental
cost - benefit analysis as well as multi criteria analyse using the methodology for
quantifying external costs. Therefore, the paper presents a model for evaluating
policies to reduce emissions of pollutants into the air during the production of
electricity at cost-effective manner by using a cost - benefit analysis and multi
criteria analysis, with results customized methodology for quantification external
costs and adequate software, recognizing the existence of cogeneration in thermal
power plants, which further reduces the external cost. However, not all countries
have carried out the evaluation of uncertainty in order to obtain the value of a
statistical life and the value of life. The statistical value of a life (VSL) and the value
of life year (VOLY) cannot be taken with the same value as in the country that are
members of the EU. BH has very low GDP, high unemployment rate (the ratio
between employed and unemployed population is 1.27) and a high rate of poor
people (about 20 %).
Also, doctoral thesis is dealing with Value of Statistical Life (i.e. Value Of Life Year-
VOLY) in developed and developing countries as the uncertainties of this value.
EcoSense software has two scenarios of toxicity of pollutant named SIA_D_PPM
and SIA_E_PPM which denotes Different toxicity and Equal toxicity of pollutants.
The VOLY in EcoSense software is 40.000Eur and it cannot be changed. But users
can choose the scenario of toxicity of pollutants. So for the developing countries it
is recommended to use scenario SIA_D_PPM because it gives a lower costs. Why
lower costs? Because the VOLY isn’t so high in developing countries and if
calculation is done with lower VOLY (25.000eur) the difference is the same as
between different and equal toxicity.
2015
Paper accepted for the 5th World Sustainability Forum, 7–9 September 2015, Basel,
Switzerland named Additional External Costs Analysis and Environmental CBA has an
abstract as follow:
Environmental CBA is widely used for dealing with environmental issues. Usually one
has to compare all costs, usually investment costs and all benefits using avoided
damages by taking into account at least two scenarios e.g. scenario business as usual
and scenario with applied measures. For both scenarios external costs have to be
calculated and their difference represents avoided damages. But, reducing one type
of externalities usually generates another, due to problems being shifted from one
area to another. Thus there is one important issue which by author’s opinion have to
be considered in CBA. That issue is magnitude of external costs occurring trough life
cycle of DeSOx or DeNOx technologies i.e. the issue is how to estimate the external
costs which arising as results of LCA of these technologies. External costs generally
have positive levels except they concern trivial problems. Extraction of needed row
4. materials (iron ore or limestone ore), needed transport, production, operating and
decommission of such expensive equipment as DeSOx and DeNOx (range from 5 to
50 million Euros) cannot be considered as trivial problem regarding external cost
calculation. These external costs should be taken into account in CBA on cost side by
adding them to investment cost.
2015
Paper named “Command control measures vs main postulate of sustainable
development in see countries regarding air emission pollutant reducing from large
combustion plants” accepted for the Regional Conference IEEP'15: Industrial Energy
and Environmental Protection in South Eastern European Countries, Zlatibor, Srbija
06/24/2015 has abstract as follow:
The SEE countries and the European Community On October 25, 2005 signed an
Energy Community Treaty and by that act the countries are committed themselves
to adopting and enforcing the EU Directive on large combustion plant or Industrial
Emission Directive by 2017, to be fulfilled by large emitters including power plants.
The countries must implement the LCPD or IED at all of its coal-fired power plants
with all pollutants emission limit values. Due to the Treaty, it is clear that, significant
investments are needed to ensure that coal-fired units comply with EU LCPD or IED
by 2017. Energy Community Contracting parties are developing countries with GDP
range from 2.239 to 13.608 $ and it is more than obvious that those countries have
very scare funds for environment protection. So imposing command control
measures like emission limit values for each power plant isn’t in accordance with
sustainable development of those countries because it would lead for sure to
significant increment of electricity price which might push some part of population
(already poor) under the poverty line. The known fact is that poverty kills –which
means that this scenario, with imposing command control measure in electricity
sector, is not acceptable for those countries. On the example of Bosnia and
Herzegovina the economically acceptable scenarios for investments in
desulphurization and denitrification on existing coal-fired units has been done. So
the aim of this paper is to present economically acceptable scenarios for emission
reduction investments in SEE countries in accordance with main postulate of
sustainable development.
So, the main idea of this paper is suggesting for SEE countries markets instruments
(emissions trading instead imposing rather expensive command and control
measures on each (old) existing units).
The main target of my research is:
Developing countries (in particular countries in transition) have a high level of corruption, which
slows down the development of the country and increases the rate of poverty. My research,
knowledge and with it acquired references help me to fight against corruption. Knowledge of my
research has to come to decision makers (politicians) in order to reduce corruption and nepotism in
my country and region.