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A PROJECT REPORT ON
BANKING PERIOD DURING PRE AND POST PERIOD
SUBMITTED
TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI
AS A PARTIAL REQUIREMENT FOR COMPLETING POST
GRADUATION OF
M.COM (BANKING AND FINANCE) SEMESTER 2
SUBMITTED BY:
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
2
SIES COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMICS,
PLOT NO. 71/72, SION MATUNGA ESTATE
T.V. CHIDAMBARAM MARG,
SION (EAST), MUMBAI – 400022.
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Miss
of M.Com (Banking and Finance) Semester II (academic year
2014-2015) has successfully completed the project on
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND COVERAGE under the
Guidance of Mrs Neelima Diwakar
_________________ ___________________
(Project Guide) (Course Co-ordinator)
___________________ ___________________
(External Examiner) (Principal)
Place: _____________
Date: ___________
DECLARATION
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I Student M.Com (Banking and Finance) Semester II (academic year
2013-2014) hereby declare that, I have completed the project on
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND COVERAGE.
The information presented in this project is true and original
to the best of my knowledge.
Place: _____________
Date:_____________
___________________
Name:
Roll No.:
4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank the University of Mumbai, for introducing
M.Com (Banking and Finance) course, thereby giving its students a
platform to be abreast with changing business scenario, with the
help of theory as a base and practical as a solution.
I am indebted to the reviewer of the project Dr. Minu Thomas
my project guide who is also our principal, for her support and
guidance. I would sincerely like to thank her for all her efforts.
Last but not the least; I would like to thank my parents for
giving the best education and for their support and contribution
without which this project would not have been possible.
______________________
Name :SONAM JAIN
Roll no:46
5
SR NO. CONTENT PG NO.
1. MEANING 6
2. Foreign Exchange Risk 10
3. Types Of Exposure 13
4. Risk Coverage 19
5. CONCLUSION 23
6. BIBLOGRAPHY 25
6
MEANING
Foreign exchange trading is essentially the trading of the currency from two
countries against each other. The pairs are predetermined by brokers, who may or
may not offer a match for the currency pair that you want to trade.For example,
a popular pair that is widely traded is the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD is the
European Dollar, also known as the EURO, and the USD, which is the US Dollar.
When the Euro becomes worth more money in dollars, the pair goes up, when it
becomes worth less money in dollars, the pair drops in value.
If you were to speculate that the USD was going to drop in value compared to the
Euro, you would buy the EUR/USD and wait for it to start rising. This is called
going long. If you thought the
Dollar would gain in value compared to the Euro, you would go short on the
EUR/USD pair. All of this trading is done through forex brokers. A forex
brokerage is an intermediary that takes on your trade and puts it on theopen
market. Foreign exchange trading is not done through any centralized market, so
all forex broker rates may not be exactly the same at the same time. Forex brokers
deal with networks of banks and the trading is carried out electronically within
fractions of a second when orders are placed.
The whole purpose of trading forex online, for most people, is to make money.
Corporations sometimes use it to offset a contract or future purchase that they plan
to make.
One thing that really adds to the fun is that forex brokers offer forex leverage to
help you in your trading. Trading with leverage is basically the forex
broker allowing you to trade more on the market than what you actually have in
your account. This is an advantage for them because they collect fees based on the
size of the trades that you make. The larger the trade, the larger the fee. Every time
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you make a trade with a forex broker they collect what they call the spread, which
is a tiny piece of your trade.
Trading with leverage seems like it would be a really great advantage, and it can
be, but it can hurt you just as much as it can help you. Many new traders start out
using as much leverage as possible and that typically leads to quick losses and an
account blow up. This is a good reason for new traders to take them time learning
to trade forex and start out using as little leverage as possible when trading.
When it comes down to it, trading is simple. You look for
currencies that will appreciate versus other currencies. Wait for a good time to buy,
and then be patient. This simple forex trading system can make you into a forex
winner with ease, but it's harder to achieve than you might think. Most people
jump into forex trading with the expectation that it's an easy way to get rich. This
causes them to make mistakes because of their expectations, and fail. Once they've
failed, you'll hear various excuses such as the market is rigged and fraudulent. The
truth is that stocks and other markets are traded in very similar ways, the difference
is theeffect of using leverage. Forex trading is a good way to make money, but it's
just like other forms of investment. It takes some education and patience. If you
keep your head together, you can make some money.
Forex is a hybrid word that represents Foreign Exchange. It's most commonly used
to describe foreign exchange trading.
Forex is changing one currency for another. In forex trading, the pairs are preset
pairs that are paired up by brokers that allow account holders to make exchanges.
The object of making the exchange is to hold the exchange until the value increase
and then exchange the currency back.
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This will sound more complicated in explanation than it actually is in
process. Forex brokers offer currency pairs, such asEUR/USD, which is European
Dollar vs. the US Dollar. If you were to "go long" on this pair, you would be
buying Euros specifically against the US Dollar. If the Euro increased in value
against the US Dollar, you make a profit. You have to close or end your trade in
order to lock in your profit.
By "going short" on the same pair, you could trade it in reverse. That is, you would
make money if the Euro decreased in value against the US Dollar. This one of the
things about forex that is great, you can trade in either direction with no real
restrictions. The only thing is that you can only trade one way on acurrency pair at
a time, per account. However, there is no rule saying you can have only one
account, so really, you can trade the way that you want.
This sounds pretty simple and straight forward, however, there are some things that
make this a bit more of an adventure than it sounds.
Forex brokers offer leverage to forex traders so they can make trades that are larger
than their balance. Leverage can range from 200:1 to 50:1 on average. In the U.S.,
brokers are limited to offering 50:1. What this means, is that for every $1 you
deposit into your account, you can trade $50 on the foreign exchange market. In
forex, you typically trade withminimum lot sizes depending on your forex account
type.
This is all forex is in a nutshell. You can open an account with a forex broker, fund
it, and trade. It's that simple. At least, mechanically, it's that simple, there's more to
know. One thing that trading with leverage introduces is fear and greed. What I
mean by this is leverage enables you to trade for large gains in comparison with
your actual balance. It's possible to make some fast money putting big trades on the
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market. Sometimes, it even seems like you can't lose. This works fine while you're
winning, this is the greed side.
The other side of this coin is the fear side. Often, traders without a
plan are the ones that feel the fear. You know that this is happening to you if you
feel very anxious while putting on a trade, and you tend to close your trades after
they've earned only a tiny bit. This tends to happen after a large loss, or even
starting over.
This emotional side to trading forex is what causes so many
people to lose their money and quit trading. To avoid becoming part of that
statistic, you need to practice, plan, keep a forex journal, and don't get carried
away. It seems more simple than it actually is. Many traders will blame their
failures on broker games, stop hunting, and other conspiracy theories. The truth is
that your trading success falls on your shoulders. If you find a decent broker, and
trade with care, you will survive, and if you are really careful, you might actually
make some money. Just avoid approaching it like a game and take it seriously. It
seems very easy to make money making clicks on a screen, but it still takes
planning and some strategy.
Exchange rates allow you to determine how much of one
currency you can exchange for another. For example, the dollar's exchange
rate tells you how much a dollar is worth in a foreign currency, and vice versa.
You will definitely need to understand exchange rates when you travel to another
country. For example, if you traveled to Canada on September 30, 2013, you'd find
a dollar was worth
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Foreign exchange risk
Foreign exchange risk (also known as FX risk, exchange rate
risk or currency risk) is a financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is
denominated in a currency other than that of the base currency of the company.
Foreign exchange risk also exists when the foreign subsidiary of a firm maintains
financial statements in a currency other than the reporting currency of the
consolidated entity. The risk is that there may be an adverse movement in
the exchange rate of the denomination currency in relation to the base currency
before the date when the transaction is completed.[1][2] Investors and businesses
exporting or importing goods and services or making foreign investments have an
exchange rate risk which can have severe financial consequences; but steps can be
taken to manage (i.e., reduce) the risk.
Many businesses were unconcerned with and did not manage foreign exchange risk
under the Bretton Woods system of international monetary order. It wasn't until the
switch to floating exchange rates following the collapse of the Bretton Woods
system that firms became exposed to an increasing risk from exchange rate
fluctuations and began trading an increasing volume of financial derivatives in an
effort to hedge their exposure.[8][9] The currency crises of the 1990s and early
2000s, such as the Mexican peso crisis, Asian currency crisis, 1998 Russian
financial crisis, and the Argentine peso crisis, led to substantial losses from foreign
exchange and led firms to pay closer attention to their foreign exchange risk.
The risk of an investment's value changing due to changes in currency exchange
rates. The risk that an investor will have to close out a long or short position in a
foreign currency at a loss due to an adverse movement in exchange rates.Also
known as "currency risk" or "exchange-rate risk".
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This risk usually affects businesses that export and/or import, but it can also affect
investors making international investments. For example, if money must be
converted to another currency to make a certain investment, then any changes in
the currency exchange rate will cause that investment's value to either decrease or
increase when the investment is sold and converted back into the original currency.
For Canadian companies that sell their goods and services internationally and get
paid in a foreign currency, foreign exchange risk is the likelihood that a change in
exchange rates will result in the company receiving a lower amount of Canadian
dollars than originally anticipated. For Canadian companies that import and pay
foreign suppliers in foreign currency, it is the likelihood that a change in exchange
rates will mean the company has to pay more than planned.
This form of foreign exchange exposure, which impacts the cash flow of the
company, is commonly referred to as transaction exposure.
When exports are invoiced in domestic currency, the (short-
term) exchange rate risk is borne by the importer rather than by the exporter. This
paper draws on the literature to consider under which conditions such a shifting of
the risk is possible and optimal for the exporting firm and then assesses the actual
use of euro invoicing by euro-area exporters, based on data collected by the ECB.
Exchange rate risk can also be neutralised ("hedged") through financial
instruments, such as exchange rate derivatives or foreign currency debt (financial
hedges), as well as through the operational setup of the exporting firm (operational
hedges). Financial derivatives have today become standard tools for hedging risks
related to exchange rates, interest rates or commodities prices. This paper discusses
hedging instruments and hedge design and surveys the literature on the use of
hedging. For the US, the use of hedging strategies and instruments is empirically
well documented. Other studies have covered firms in individual European
12
countries, but to the author's knowledge, none has so far taken a euro-area
perspective. This paper contributes to closing that gap through a survey of self-
reported hedging strategies and instruments of euro-area blue chip companies.
It is clear that importing firms also face exchange rate risk.
Transaction risk arises from foreign-currency denominated imports in the same
way as from foreign-currency denominated exports. The economic risk to which an
importing firm is subject concerns the variation of its costs induced by exchange
rate fluctuations. As in practice most multinational firms are at the same time
importers and exporters, their exposure to exchange rate risk is limited to net cash
flows in a particular currency. Finally, translation risk arises from the holding of
foreign assets irrespective of the net direction of trade flows. A gauge of the actual
relevance of exchange rate risk for firms can be found in the literature. Muller and
Verschoor (2006) use a sample of 817 multinational firms that are exchange-listed
and have their headquarters in the euro area to estimate their exposure to exchange
rate variations. They follow a widespread empirical approach by estimating the
impact of exchange rate variations on the firm's stock market returns, controlling
for the returns of the entire market. Over the entire period 1988-2002, 22% of
firms had significant exposure4 to the GBP exchange rate, 14% to the USD and
13% to the JPY.
13
Types of Exposure
Transaction exposure
A firm has transaction exposure whenever it has contractual cash flows
(receivables and payables) whose values are subject to unanticipated changes in
exchange rates due to a contract being denominated in a foreign currency. To
realize the domestic value of its foreign-denominated cash flows, the firm must
exchange foreign currency for domestic currency. As firms negotiate contracts
with set prices and delivery dates in the face of a volatile foreign exchange market
with exchange rates constantly fluctuating, the firms face a risk of changes in the
exchange rate between the foreign and domestic currency. It refers to the risk
associated with the change in the exchange rate between the time an enterprise
initiates a transaction and settles it.
Applying public accounting rules causes firms with transactional exposures to be
impacted by a process known as "remeasurement". The current value of contractual
cash flows areremeasured at each balance sheet date. If the value of the currency of
payment or receivable changes in relation to the firm's base or reporting currency
from one balance sheet date to the next, the expected value of these cash flows will
change. U.S. accounting rules for this process are specified in ASC 830, originally
known as FAS 52. Under ASC 830, changes in the value of these contractual cash
flows due to currency valuation changes will impact current income.
Economic exposure
A firm has economic exposure (also known as forecast risk) to the degree that its
market value is influenced by unexpected exchange rate fluctuations. Such
exchange rate adjustments can severely affect the firm's market share position with
14
regards to its competitors, the firm's future cash flows, and ultimately the firm's
value. Economic exposure can affect the present value of future cash flows. Any
transaction that exposes the firm to foreign exchange risk also exposes the firm
economically, but economic exposure can be caused by other business activities
and investments which may not be mere international transactions, such as future
cash flows from fixed assets. A shift in exchange rates that influences the demand
for a good in some country would also be an economic exposure for a firm that
sells that good.
Translation exposure
A firm's translation exposure is the extent to which its financial reporting is
affected by exchange rate movements. As all firms generally must prepare
consolidated financial statements for reporting purposes, the consolidation process
for multinationals entails translating foreign assets and liabilities or the financial
statements of foreign subsidiary|subsidiaries from foreign to domestic
currency.While translation exposure may not affect a firm's cash flows, it could
have a significant impact on a firm's reported earnings and therefore its stock
price.Translation exposure is distinguished from transaction risk as a result of
income and losses from various types of risk having different accounting
treatments.
Contingent exposure
A firm has contingent exposure when bidding for foreign projects or negotiating
other contracts or foreign direct investments. Such an exposure arises from the
potential for a firm to suddenly face a transactional or economic foreign exchange
risk, contingent on the outcome of some contract or negotiation. For example, a
firm could be waiting for a project bid to be accepted by a foreign business or
government that if accepted would result in an immediate receivable. While
15
waiting, the firm faces a contingent exposure from the uncertainty as to whether or
not that receivable will happen. If the bid is accepted and a receivable is paid the
firm then faces a transaction exposure, so a firm may prefer to manage contingent
exposures.
Measurement
If foreign exchange markets are efficient such that purchasing power
parity, interest rate parity, and the international Fisher effect hold true, a firm or
investor needn't protect against foreign exchange risk due to an indifference toward
international investment decisions. A deviation from one or more of the three
international parity conditions generally needs to occur for an exposure to foreign
exchange risk.
Financial risk is most commonly measured in terms of the variance or standard
deviation of a variable such as percentage returns or rates of change. In foreign
exchange, a relevant factor would be the rate of change of the spot exchange rate
between currencies. Variance represents exchange rate risk by the spread of
exchange rates, whereas standard deviation represents exchange rate risk by the
amount exchange rates deviate, on average, from the mean exchange rate in
aprobability distribution. A higher standard deviation would signal a greater
currency risk. Economists have criticized the accuracy of standard deviation as a
risk indicator for its uniform treatment of deviations, be they positive or negative,
and for automatically squaring deviation values. Alternatives such as average
absolute deviation and semivariance have been advanced for measuring financial
risk.
Value at Risk
Practitioners have advanced and regulators have accepted a financial risk
management technique called value at risk (VaR), which examines the tail end of a
16
distribution of returns for changes in exchange rates to highlight the outcomes with
the worst returns. Banks in Europe have been authorized by the Bank for
International Settlements to employ VaR models of their own design in
establishing capital requirements for given levels of market risk. Using the VaR
model helps risk managers determine the amount that could be lost on an
investment portfolio over a certain period of time with a given probability of
changes in exchange rates. VaR typically is the risk measure of choice for FX
managers and risk departments because it expresses a portfolio’s risks in a
coherent and logical manner. It is expressed in real profit-andloss terms and can
directly tell a risk manager the potential risks inherent in a portfolio based on
varying degrees of statistical confidence. VaR traditionally is measured in the
following three ways: 1. historical simulation 2. variance/covariance (parametric)
3. Monte Carlo simulation Each method produces a statistical measurement of VaR
that is calculated using an historical data assumption to give a level of confidence
that is determined from the historical price action. Each method differs in
complexity and has advantages and disadvantages. Historical simulation assumes
that the past is a good predictor of the future and that the volatility of the analyzed
currencies will remain stable, within the parameters observed in the past. It uses
real historical data and therefore importantly does not assume that the returns are
normally distributed. It is, however, computationally intensive and completely
dependent on historical price movements, and therefore it can seriously
underestimate “tail risk.” (Tail risk is a measurement of the probability of an event
occurring at the extremes of a given distribution, the reasons for this will be
explained later in this article.) Historical simulation is also dependent on the
quality and depth of the input data, which can be problematic for emerging market
currencies. Variance/covariance, sometimes known as parametric VaR, is
computationally easier because historical data is used to calculate the standard
17
deviation of the changes of risk factors and the correlations between them. It is
heavily disadvantaged by an assumption of the linearity of risk (the assumption
that risk vs. reward is linear in nature, which is not the case with more-complex
financial instruments such as options), that correlations are stable over time, and
that returns are distributed normally. Products such as options introduce nonlinear
risk parameters, correlations can quickly and dramatically uncouple, and as we
have seen in.
Management
Firms with exposure to foreign exchange risk may use a number of foreign
exchange hedging strategies to reduce the exchange rate risk. Transaction exposure
can be reduced either with the use of the money markets, foreign exchange
derivatives such as forward contracts, futures contracts, options, and swaps, or with
operational techniques such as currency invoicing, leading and lagging of receipts
and payments, and exposure netting.
Firms may adopt alternative strategies to financial hedging for managing their
economic or operating exposure, by carefully selecting production sites with a
mind for lowering costs, using a policy of flexible sourcing in its supply chain
management, diversifying its export market across a greater number of countries,
or by implementing strong research and development activities and differentiating
its products in pursuit of greater inelasticity and less foreign exchange risk
exposure.
Translation exposure is largely dependent on the accounting standards of the home
country and the translation methods required by those standards. For example, the
United States Federal Accounting Standards Board specifies when and where to
use certain methods such as the temporal method and current rate method. Firms
can manage translation exposure by performing a balance sheet hedge. Since
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translation exposure arises from discrepancies between net assets and net liabilities
on a balance sheet solely from exchange rate differences. Following this logic, a
firm could acquire an appropriate amount of exposed assets or liabilities to balance
any outstanding discrepancy. Foreign exchange derivatives may also be used to
hedge against translation exposure
Transaction risk refers to the impact of exchange rate changes on
the value of committed cash flows (cash flows that lie in the future, but the
nominal value of which is known). These are mostly receivables (payables) from
export (import) contracts and repatriation of dividends. Usually, the time frame for
committed transactions (the time between contracting and payment) is relatively
short. However, it can in some cases reach several years, where deliveries are
committed a long time in advance (e.g. US dollar-denominated forward sales of
planes or building contracts). Economic risk refers to the impact of exchange rate
movements on the present value of uncertain future cash flows. It comprises the
impact of exchange rate variation on future revenues and expenses through both
variations in price and volume. Translation risk refers to the impact of exchange
rate changes on the valuation of foreign assets (mainly foreign subsidiaries) and
liabilities on a multinational company's consolidated balance sheet. Usually,
translation risk is measured in net terms, i.e. net foreign assets minus net foreign
liabilities.
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RISK COVERAGE
Whether dealing in U.S. dollars or in a foreign currency, every
international transaction has inherent risks such as country risk, risk of non
payment from foreign buyers, risk of non-delivery from foreign suppliers, and,
when a foreign currency is involved, foreign exchange risk. Santander Bank, N.A.
(“Santander”) is prepared to assist your company in mitigating these risks.
Country Risk
Country Risk is the risk of investing in a foreign country. It includes all
the risks that are specific for the country and that will affect the local companies’
transactions with foreign investors. It includes political risk, economic risk, or
transfer risk, which is the risk of the government or central bank not allowing
capital to move out of the country. There are insurance policies from the Export-
Import Bank of the United States Ex-Im Bank and some private insurers that can
protect an exporter against the occurrence of these events.
Payment and Delivery Risk
Payment risk is the risk of not getting paid or getting paid late by your
buyer. Delivery risk is the risk of your foreign supplier not being able to fulfill its
side of the sales agreement.
Ideally, your company would diminish these risks by selling under
cash in advance terms or buying on open account. However, when these are not
possible, you can also reduce the risks of non-payment and non-delivery of a
certain transaction by using a different payment method such as Documentary
Collections and Letters of Credit.
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Foreign Exchange Risk
Currency or Foreign Exchange (“FX”) risk occurs when a US
company buys or sells in a currency different than US dollars, and is generated by
the volatility of the price of one currency against the other. Santander Bank offers
you a wide range of FX products to mitigate currency risk for your international
transactions.
Spot Contract
A spottransaction is a contract to buy or sell a fixed amount of
foreign currency at a fixed price for a settlement that is typically two business
days.
Forward Contract
A forward contract is a contract to exchange two currencies at a
specific time in the future greater than two business days (settlement date) at a rate
fixed in advance (forward rate).
Currency Option Contracts
Currency options give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or
sell a fixed amount of foreign currency at a specified exchange rate (strike rate) on
or within a specified time period (maturity).
Risk Hedging
Santander offers the most effective management of exchange rate risk
to maximizing your profits. The solution we propose is the simplest, fastest and
most convenient way to manage your exchange rate risk, enabling you to reduce
potential fluctuations in the exchange rates of the various currencies. Santander can
21
provide all the instruments you need to set exchange rates at a future date; for more
information click any of the following options.
This refers to the organizational structure through which national
currencies are bought and sold. The principal operators are banks or financial
intermediaries, the central banks of the respective countries, brokers and
companies.
The concept of currency any means of payment (cheque, bank transfer,
etc.) denominated in a currency other than the domestic currency. The concept of
currency also encompasses foreign bank notes.
Currency fluctuations
Currencies are in constant flux owing to a series of factors such as:
 Import and export operations
 The socio-political situation
 Economic indicators (rates of interest, inflation etc.)
 Events in the money markets
 Central bank interventions
 Market liquidity
Basic divisions of the currency market
There are two basic segments of the foreign exchange market,
depending on the time which elapses between the making and the settling of
contracts; they comprise two specific groups of operations and two distinct prices
or exchange rates:
 The spot market In this type of transaction, foreign exchange is bought and sold
against the domestic currency, and settlement is carried out up to two business
days after the contract has been made.
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 The forward market or foreign exchange insurance This refers to the buying
and selling of foreign exchange against the domestic currency, the rate of exchange
being set on the day the contract is entered into, with settlement made at some
future date starting from the third business day after the transaction is agreed.
 Euro area non-financial blue chip companies systematically use financial
derivatives to hedge transaction risk. As suggested by the literature on
optimal hedging, hedge ratios seem to be close to 100% for firmly
committed cash flows and lower for estimated or expected flows. Short
maturities up to two years are most widespread for exchange rate forwards
and options, while it is not unusual to see cross-currency swaps with
maturities of a decade or more.
 The management of translation risk is not completely documented and
seems to vary a lot across firms.
 In their approach to longer-term economic risk, some firms rely on rolling
over of shortterm derivative hedges. Many reduce their exposure to
economic risk by matching of costs and revenues, either through financial
instruments or through the geographical structure of sourcing, production
and sales. This is in line with part of the empirical literature that suggests
that operational and financial hedges are complements. None of the
companies surveyed explicitly refers to the option value of operational
flexibility discussed in the literature on operational hedges.
23
CONCLUSION
The empirical literature and the survey of non-financial companies in
the EuroStoxx50 index indicate that exposure to exchange rate variations is a
major issue for euro-area firms. This contrasts somewhat with the literature on US
corporations. It is plausible that the euro area as a more open entity is more
exposed to exchange rate variations than the US.
Euro invoicing effectively shifts transaction risk to the foreign
importers. Close to 50% of euro-area exports to countries outside the EU are
invoiced in euro, and the share of the euro is higher in exports to other EU
countries. As suggested by the literature on the optimal choice of invoicing
currency, domestic-currency invoicing of euro-area exports increased with the
introduction of the euro. At the same time, invoicing in US dollar continues to play
a much larger role than the share of euro-area exports to the US would suggest.
This paper finds hedging with exchange rate derivatives such as forwards and
options to be very widespread, in line with the literature that suggests it is effective
in reducing exposure to exchange rate risk, at least over the shorter run.
However, neither domestic-currency invoicing nor derivative
hedging easily lend themselves to managing the broader economic risk (i.e. the risk
of loss of competitiveness as a result of exchange rate fluctuations). This paper
discusses non-derivative financial hedges as well as operational hedges that
address also economic risk. The survey of large euro-area companies shows that
many make use of these instruments, in particular matching foreign currency
revenues (assets) with expenditure (liabilities) in the same currency and the
international diversification of sourcing, production and sales. Overall, this paper
suggests that euro-area exporters have instruments at hand to protect themselves
against euro appreciation and that they make ample use of them. This has probably
24
contributed to the simultaneous strength of euro-area exports and corporate profits
in the face of the euro appreciation over the past years. However, the scope for
managing medium-term economic risk is more limited than that for managing
short-term variations of the exchange rate.
Operational hedging and hedging through foreign currency loans is
almost by definition the domain of large multinational companies that have the
capacity to relocate, to tap international financial markets and dispose of
internationally accepted collateral. Real and financial globalisation is increasing
these hedging possibilities with more widespread relocation of production and
increased depth of local financial markets. What is more, the use of financial
hedges is also positively related to firm size, probably due to fix costs for setting
up a hedging function.
The EuroStoxx50 companies surveyed here are not representative for
the larger group of euroarea exporters. Smaller, less diversified exporting firms
may find it harder to manage their exchange rate risk than large multinationals.
However, recent financial market developments and technological advances (IT,
risk management techniques) have made the use of derivatives for hedging less
costly and their design easier, and the use of financial hedges by smaller firms
seems to be increasing.
25
BIBLOGRAPHY
 http://forextrading.about.com/od/forexbasics/a/forex.htm
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_risk
 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/foreignexchangerisk.asp
 https://en.santandertrade.com/bank-with-us/global/international-trade-
guide-risk-coverage
 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication11475_en.
 http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67l.
 http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2015/031715.htm
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Foreign exchange risk and coverage

  • 1. 1 A PROJECT REPORT ON BANKING PERIOD DURING PRE AND POST PERIOD SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI AS A PARTIAL REQUIREMENT FOR COMPLETING POST GRADUATION OF M.COM (BANKING AND FINANCE) SEMESTER 2 SUBMITTED BY: UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
  • 2. 2 SIES COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMICS, PLOT NO. 71/72, SION MATUNGA ESTATE T.V. CHIDAMBARAM MARG, SION (EAST), MUMBAI – 400022. CERTIFICATE This is to certify that Miss of M.Com (Banking and Finance) Semester II (academic year 2014-2015) has successfully completed the project on FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND COVERAGE under the Guidance of Mrs Neelima Diwakar _________________ ___________________ (Project Guide) (Course Co-ordinator) ___________________ ___________________ (External Examiner) (Principal) Place: _____________ Date: ___________ DECLARATION
  • 3. 3 I Student M.Com (Banking and Finance) Semester II (academic year 2013-2014) hereby declare that, I have completed the project on FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND COVERAGE. The information presented in this project is true and original to the best of my knowledge. Place: _____________ Date:_____________ ___________________ Name: Roll No.:
  • 4. 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to thank the University of Mumbai, for introducing M.Com (Banking and Finance) course, thereby giving its students a platform to be abreast with changing business scenario, with the help of theory as a base and practical as a solution. I am indebted to the reviewer of the project Dr. Minu Thomas my project guide who is also our principal, for her support and guidance. I would sincerely like to thank her for all her efforts. Last but not the least; I would like to thank my parents for giving the best education and for their support and contribution without which this project would not have been possible. ______________________ Name :SONAM JAIN Roll no:46
  • 5. 5 SR NO. CONTENT PG NO. 1. MEANING 6 2. Foreign Exchange Risk 10 3. Types Of Exposure 13 4. Risk Coverage 19 5. CONCLUSION 23 6. BIBLOGRAPHY 25
  • 6. 6 MEANING Foreign exchange trading is essentially the trading of the currency from two countries against each other. The pairs are predetermined by brokers, who may or may not offer a match for the currency pair that you want to trade.For example, a popular pair that is widely traded is the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD is the European Dollar, also known as the EURO, and the USD, which is the US Dollar. When the Euro becomes worth more money in dollars, the pair goes up, when it becomes worth less money in dollars, the pair drops in value. If you were to speculate that the USD was going to drop in value compared to the Euro, you would buy the EUR/USD and wait for it to start rising. This is called going long. If you thought the Dollar would gain in value compared to the Euro, you would go short on the EUR/USD pair. All of this trading is done through forex brokers. A forex brokerage is an intermediary that takes on your trade and puts it on theopen market. Foreign exchange trading is not done through any centralized market, so all forex broker rates may not be exactly the same at the same time. Forex brokers deal with networks of banks and the trading is carried out electronically within fractions of a second when orders are placed. The whole purpose of trading forex online, for most people, is to make money. Corporations sometimes use it to offset a contract or future purchase that they plan to make. One thing that really adds to the fun is that forex brokers offer forex leverage to help you in your trading. Trading with leverage is basically the forex broker allowing you to trade more on the market than what you actually have in your account. This is an advantage for them because they collect fees based on the size of the trades that you make. The larger the trade, the larger the fee. Every time
  • 7. 7 you make a trade with a forex broker they collect what they call the spread, which is a tiny piece of your trade. Trading with leverage seems like it would be a really great advantage, and it can be, but it can hurt you just as much as it can help you. Many new traders start out using as much leverage as possible and that typically leads to quick losses and an account blow up. This is a good reason for new traders to take them time learning to trade forex and start out using as little leverage as possible when trading. When it comes down to it, trading is simple. You look for currencies that will appreciate versus other currencies. Wait for a good time to buy, and then be patient. This simple forex trading system can make you into a forex winner with ease, but it's harder to achieve than you might think. Most people jump into forex trading with the expectation that it's an easy way to get rich. This causes them to make mistakes because of their expectations, and fail. Once they've failed, you'll hear various excuses such as the market is rigged and fraudulent. The truth is that stocks and other markets are traded in very similar ways, the difference is theeffect of using leverage. Forex trading is a good way to make money, but it's just like other forms of investment. It takes some education and patience. If you keep your head together, you can make some money. Forex is a hybrid word that represents Foreign Exchange. It's most commonly used to describe foreign exchange trading. Forex is changing one currency for another. In forex trading, the pairs are preset pairs that are paired up by brokers that allow account holders to make exchanges. The object of making the exchange is to hold the exchange until the value increase and then exchange the currency back.
  • 8. 8 This will sound more complicated in explanation than it actually is in process. Forex brokers offer currency pairs, such asEUR/USD, which is European Dollar vs. the US Dollar. If you were to "go long" on this pair, you would be buying Euros specifically against the US Dollar. If the Euro increased in value against the US Dollar, you make a profit. You have to close or end your trade in order to lock in your profit. By "going short" on the same pair, you could trade it in reverse. That is, you would make money if the Euro decreased in value against the US Dollar. This one of the things about forex that is great, you can trade in either direction with no real restrictions. The only thing is that you can only trade one way on acurrency pair at a time, per account. However, there is no rule saying you can have only one account, so really, you can trade the way that you want. This sounds pretty simple and straight forward, however, there are some things that make this a bit more of an adventure than it sounds. Forex brokers offer leverage to forex traders so they can make trades that are larger than their balance. Leverage can range from 200:1 to 50:1 on average. In the U.S., brokers are limited to offering 50:1. What this means, is that for every $1 you deposit into your account, you can trade $50 on the foreign exchange market. In forex, you typically trade withminimum lot sizes depending on your forex account type. This is all forex is in a nutshell. You can open an account with a forex broker, fund it, and trade. It's that simple. At least, mechanically, it's that simple, there's more to know. One thing that trading with leverage introduces is fear and greed. What I mean by this is leverage enables you to trade for large gains in comparison with your actual balance. It's possible to make some fast money putting big trades on the
  • 9. 9 market. Sometimes, it even seems like you can't lose. This works fine while you're winning, this is the greed side. The other side of this coin is the fear side. Often, traders without a plan are the ones that feel the fear. You know that this is happening to you if you feel very anxious while putting on a trade, and you tend to close your trades after they've earned only a tiny bit. This tends to happen after a large loss, or even starting over. This emotional side to trading forex is what causes so many people to lose their money and quit trading. To avoid becoming part of that statistic, you need to practice, plan, keep a forex journal, and don't get carried away. It seems more simple than it actually is. Many traders will blame their failures on broker games, stop hunting, and other conspiracy theories. The truth is that your trading success falls on your shoulders. If you find a decent broker, and trade with care, you will survive, and if you are really careful, you might actually make some money. Just avoid approaching it like a game and take it seriously. It seems very easy to make money making clicks on a screen, but it still takes planning and some strategy. Exchange rates allow you to determine how much of one currency you can exchange for another. For example, the dollar's exchange rate tells you how much a dollar is worth in a foreign currency, and vice versa. You will definitely need to understand exchange rates when you travel to another country. For example, if you traveled to Canada on September 30, 2013, you'd find a dollar was worth
  • 10. 10 Foreign exchange risk Foreign exchange risk (also known as FX risk, exchange rate risk or currency risk) is a financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is denominated in a currency other than that of the base currency of the company. Foreign exchange risk also exists when the foreign subsidiary of a firm maintains financial statements in a currency other than the reporting currency of the consolidated entity. The risk is that there may be an adverse movement in the exchange rate of the denomination currency in relation to the base currency before the date when the transaction is completed.[1][2] Investors and businesses exporting or importing goods and services or making foreign investments have an exchange rate risk which can have severe financial consequences; but steps can be taken to manage (i.e., reduce) the risk. Many businesses were unconcerned with and did not manage foreign exchange risk under the Bretton Woods system of international monetary order. It wasn't until the switch to floating exchange rates following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system that firms became exposed to an increasing risk from exchange rate fluctuations and began trading an increasing volume of financial derivatives in an effort to hedge their exposure.[8][9] The currency crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, such as the Mexican peso crisis, Asian currency crisis, 1998 Russian financial crisis, and the Argentine peso crisis, led to substantial losses from foreign exchange and led firms to pay closer attention to their foreign exchange risk. The risk of an investment's value changing due to changes in currency exchange rates. The risk that an investor will have to close out a long or short position in a foreign currency at a loss due to an adverse movement in exchange rates.Also known as "currency risk" or "exchange-rate risk".
  • 11. 11 This risk usually affects businesses that export and/or import, but it can also affect investors making international investments. For example, if money must be converted to another currency to make a certain investment, then any changes in the currency exchange rate will cause that investment's value to either decrease or increase when the investment is sold and converted back into the original currency. For Canadian companies that sell their goods and services internationally and get paid in a foreign currency, foreign exchange risk is the likelihood that a change in exchange rates will result in the company receiving a lower amount of Canadian dollars than originally anticipated. For Canadian companies that import and pay foreign suppliers in foreign currency, it is the likelihood that a change in exchange rates will mean the company has to pay more than planned. This form of foreign exchange exposure, which impacts the cash flow of the company, is commonly referred to as transaction exposure. When exports are invoiced in domestic currency, the (short- term) exchange rate risk is borne by the importer rather than by the exporter. This paper draws on the literature to consider under which conditions such a shifting of the risk is possible and optimal for the exporting firm and then assesses the actual use of euro invoicing by euro-area exporters, based on data collected by the ECB. Exchange rate risk can also be neutralised ("hedged") through financial instruments, such as exchange rate derivatives or foreign currency debt (financial hedges), as well as through the operational setup of the exporting firm (operational hedges). Financial derivatives have today become standard tools for hedging risks related to exchange rates, interest rates or commodities prices. This paper discusses hedging instruments and hedge design and surveys the literature on the use of hedging. For the US, the use of hedging strategies and instruments is empirically well documented. Other studies have covered firms in individual European
  • 12. 12 countries, but to the author's knowledge, none has so far taken a euro-area perspective. This paper contributes to closing that gap through a survey of self- reported hedging strategies and instruments of euro-area blue chip companies. It is clear that importing firms also face exchange rate risk. Transaction risk arises from foreign-currency denominated imports in the same way as from foreign-currency denominated exports. The economic risk to which an importing firm is subject concerns the variation of its costs induced by exchange rate fluctuations. As in practice most multinational firms are at the same time importers and exporters, their exposure to exchange rate risk is limited to net cash flows in a particular currency. Finally, translation risk arises from the holding of foreign assets irrespective of the net direction of trade flows. A gauge of the actual relevance of exchange rate risk for firms can be found in the literature. Muller and Verschoor (2006) use a sample of 817 multinational firms that are exchange-listed and have their headquarters in the euro area to estimate their exposure to exchange rate variations. They follow a widespread empirical approach by estimating the impact of exchange rate variations on the firm's stock market returns, controlling for the returns of the entire market. Over the entire period 1988-2002, 22% of firms had significant exposure4 to the GBP exchange rate, 14% to the USD and 13% to the JPY.
  • 13. 13 Types of Exposure Transaction exposure A firm has transaction exposure whenever it has contractual cash flows (receivables and payables) whose values are subject to unanticipated changes in exchange rates due to a contract being denominated in a foreign currency. To realize the domestic value of its foreign-denominated cash flows, the firm must exchange foreign currency for domestic currency. As firms negotiate contracts with set prices and delivery dates in the face of a volatile foreign exchange market with exchange rates constantly fluctuating, the firms face a risk of changes in the exchange rate between the foreign and domestic currency. It refers to the risk associated with the change in the exchange rate between the time an enterprise initiates a transaction and settles it. Applying public accounting rules causes firms with transactional exposures to be impacted by a process known as "remeasurement". The current value of contractual cash flows areremeasured at each balance sheet date. If the value of the currency of payment or receivable changes in relation to the firm's base or reporting currency from one balance sheet date to the next, the expected value of these cash flows will change. U.S. accounting rules for this process are specified in ASC 830, originally known as FAS 52. Under ASC 830, changes in the value of these contractual cash flows due to currency valuation changes will impact current income. Economic exposure A firm has economic exposure (also known as forecast risk) to the degree that its market value is influenced by unexpected exchange rate fluctuations. Such exchange rate adjustments can severely affect the firm's market share position with
  • 14. 14 regards to its competitors, the firm's future cash flows, and ultimately the firm's value. Economic exposure can affect the present value of future cash flows. Any transaction that exposes the firm to foreign exchange risk also exposes the firm economically, but economic exposure can be caused by other business activities and investments which may not be mere international transactions, such as future cash flows from fixed assets. A shift in exchange rates that influences the demand for a good in some country would also be an economic exposure for a firm that sells that good. Translation exposure A firm's translation exposure is the extent to which its financial reporting is affected by exchange rate movements. As all firms generally must prepare consolidated financial statements for reporting purposes, the consolidation process for multinationals entails translating foreign assets and liabilities or the financial statements of foreign subsidiary|subsidiaries from foreign to domestic currency.While translation exposure may not affect a firm's cash flows, it could have a significant impact on a firm's reported earnings and therefore its stock price.Translation exposure is distinguished from transaction risk as a result of income and losses from various types of risk having different accounting treatments. Contingent exposure A firm has contingent exposure when bidding for foreign projects or negotiating other contracts or foreign direct investments. Such an exposure arises from the potential for a firm to suddenly face a transactional or economic foreign exchange risk, contingent on the outcome of some contract or negotiation. For example, a firm could be waiting for a project bid to be accepted by a foreign business or government that if accepted would result in an immediate receivable. While
  • 15. 15 waiting, the firm faces a contingent exposure from the uncertainty as to whether or not that receivable will happen. If the bid is accepted and a receivable is paid the firm then faces a transaction exposure, so a firm may prefer to manage contingent exposures. Measurement If foreign exchange markets are efficient such that purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and the international Fisher effect hold true, a firm or investor needn't protect against foreign exchange risk due to an indifference toward international investment decisions. A deviation from one or more of the three international parity conditions generally needs to occur for an exposure to foreign exchange risk. Financial risk is most commonly measured in terms of the variance or standard deviation of a variable such as percentage returns or rates of change. In foreign exchange, a relevant factor would be the rate of change of the spot exchange rate between currencies. Variance represents exchange rate risk by the spread of exchange rates, whereas standard deviation represents exchange rate risk by the amount exchange rates deviate, on average, from the mean exchange rate in aprobability distribution. A higher standard deviation would signal a greater currency risk. Economists have criticized the accuracy of standard deviation as a risk indicator for its uniform treatment of deviations, be they positive or negative, and for automatically squaring deviation values. Alternatives such as average absolute deviation and semivariance have been advanced for measuring financial risk. Value at Risk Practitioners have advanced and regulators have accepted a financial risk management technique called value at risk (VaR), which examines the tail end of a
  • 16. 16 distribution of returns for changes in exchange rates to highlight the outcomes with the worst returns. Banks in Europe have been authorized by the Bank for International Settlements to employ VaR models of their own design in establishing capital requirements for given levels of market risk. Using the VaR model helps risk managers determine the amount that could be lost on an investment portfolio over a certain period of time with a given probability of changes in exchange rates. VaR typically is the risk measure of choice for FX managers and risk departments because it expresses a portfolio’s risks in a coherent and logical manner. It is expressed in real profit-andloss terms and can directly tell a risk manager the potential risks inherent in a portfolio based on varying degrees of statistical confidence. VaR traditionally is measured in the following three ways: 1. historical simulation 2. variance/covariance (parametric) 3. Monte Carlo simulation Each method produces a statistical measurement of VaR that is calculated using an historical data assumption to give a level of confidence that is determined from the historical price action. Each method differs in complexity and has advantages and disadvantages. Historical simulation assumes that the past is a good predictor of the future and that the volatility of the analyzed currencies will remain stable, within the parameters observed in the past. It uses real historical data and therefore importantly does not assume that the returns are normally distributed. It is, however, computationally intensive and completely dependent on historical price movements, and therefore it can seriously underestimate “tail risk.” (Tail risk is a measurement of the probability of an event occurring at the extremes of a given distribution, the reasons for this will be explained later in this article.) Historical simulation is also dependent on the quality and depth of the input data, which can be problematic for emerging market currencies. Variance/covariance, sometimes known as parametric VaR, is computationally easier because historical data is used to calculate the standard
  • 17. 17 deviation of the changes of risk factors and the correlations between them. It is heavily disadvantaged by an assumption of the linearity of risk (the assumption that risk vs. reward is linear in nature, which is not the case with more-complex financial instruments such as options), that correlations are stable over time, and that returns are distributed normally. Products such as options introduce nonlinear risk parameters, correlations can quickly and dramatically uncouple, and as we have seen in. Management Firms with exposure to foreign exchange risk may use a number of foreign exchange hedging strategies to reduce the exchange rate risk. Transaction exposure can be reduced either with the use of the money markets, foreign exchange derivatives such as forward contracts, futures contracts, options, and swaps, or with operational techniques such as currency invoicing, leading and lagging of receipts and payments, and exposure netting. Firms may adopt alternative strategies to financial hedging for managing their economic or operating exposure, by carefully selecting production sites with a mind for lowering costs, using a policy of flexible sourcing in its supply chain management, diversifying its export market across a greater number of countries, or by implementing strong research and development activities and differentiating its products in pursuit of greater inelasticity and less foreign exchange risk exposure. Translation exposure is largely dependent on the accounting standards of the home country and the translation methods required by those standards. For example, the United States Federal Accounting Standards Board specifies when and where to use certain methods such as the temporal method and current rate method. Firms can manage translation exposure by performing a balance sheet hedge. Since
  • 18. 18 translation exposure arises from discrepancies between net assets and net liabilities on a balance sheet solely from exchange rate differences. Following this logic, a firm could acquire an appropriate amount of exposed assets or liabilities to balance any outstanding discrepancy. Foreign exchange derivatives may also be used to hedge against translation exposure Transaction risk refers to the impact of exchange rate changes on the value of committed cash flows (cash flows that lie in the future, but the nominal value of which is known). These are mostly receivables (payables) from export (import) contracts and repatriation of dividends. Usually, the time frame for committed transactions (the time between contracting and payment) is relatively short. However, it can in some cases reach several years, where deliveries are committed a long time in advance (e.g. US dollar-denominated forward sales of planes or building contracts). Economic risk refers to the impact of exchange rate movements on the present value of uncertain future cash flows. It comprises the impact of exchange rate variation on future revenues and expenses through both variations in price and volume. Translation risk refers to the impact of exchange rate changes on the valuation of foreign assets (mainly foreign subsidiaries) and liabilities on a multinational company's consolidated balance sheet. Usually, translation risk is measured in net terms, i.e. net foreign assets minus net foreign liabilities.
  • 19. 19 RISK COVERAGE Whether dealing in U.S. dollars or in a foreign currency, every international transaction has inherent risks such as country risk, risk of non payment from foreign buyers, risk of non-delivery from foreign suppliers, and, when a foreign currency is involved, foreign exchange risk. Santander Bank, N.A. (“Santander”) is prepared to assist your company in mitigating these risks. Country Risk Country Risk is the risk of investing in a foreign country. It includes all the risks that are specific for the country and that will affect the local companies’ transactions with foreign investors. It includes political risk, economic risk, or transfer risk, which is the risk of the government or central bank not allowing capital to move out of the country. There are insurance policies from the Export- Import Bank of the United States Ex-Im Bank and some private insurers that can protect an exporter against the occurrence of these events. Payment and Delivery Risk Payment risk is the risk of not getting paid or getting paid late by your buyer. Delivery risk is the risk of your foreign supplier not being able to fulfill its side of the sales agreement. Ideally, your company would diminish these risks by selling under cash in advance terms or buying on open account. However, when these are not possible, you can also reduce the risks of non-payment and non-delivery of a certain transaction by using a different payment method such as Documentary Collections and Letters of Credit.
  • 20. 20 Foreign Exchange Risk Currency or Foreign Exchange (“FX”) risk occurs when a US company buys or sells in a currency different than US dollars, and is generated by the volatility of the price of one currency against the other. Santander Bank offers you a wide range of FX products to mitigate currency risk for your international transactions. Spot Contract A spottransaction is a contract to buy or sell a fixed amount of foreign currency at a fixed price for a settlement that is typically two business days. Forward Contract A forward contract is a contract to exchange two currencies at a specific time in the future greater than two business days (settlement date) at a rate fixed in advance (forward rate). Currency Option Contracts Currency options give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a fixed amount of foreign currency at a specified exchange rate (strike rate) on or within a specified time period (maturity). Risk Hedging Santander offers the most effective management of exchange rate risk to maximizing your profits. The solution we propose is the simplest, fastest and most convenient way to manage your exchange rate risk, enabling you to reduce potential fluctuations in the exchange rates of the various currencies. Santander can
  • 21. 21 provide all the instruments you need to set exchange rates at a future date; for more information click any of the following options. This refers to the organizational structure through which national currencies are bought and sold. The principal operators are banks or financial intermediaries, the central banks of the respective countries, brokers and companies. The concept of currency any means of payment (cheque, bank transfer, etc.) denominated in a currency other than the domestic currency. The concept of currency also encompasses foreign bank notes. Currency fluctuations Currencies are in constant flux owing to a series of factors such as:  Import and export operations  The socio-political situation  Economic indicators (rates of interest, inflation etc.)  Events in the money markets  Central bank interventions  Market liquidity Basic divisions of the currency market There are two basic segments of the foreign exchange market, depending on the time which elapses between the making and the settling of contracts; they comprise two specific groups of operations and two distinct prices or exchange rates:  The spot market In this type of transaction, foreign exchange is bought and sold against the domestic currency, and settlement is carried out up to two business days after the contract has been made.
  • 22. 22  The forward market or foreign exchange insurance This refers to the buying and selling of foreign exchange against the domestic currency, the rate of exchange being set on the day the contract is entered into, with settlement made at some future date starting from the third business day after the transaction is agreed.  Euro area non-financial blue chip companies systematically use financial derivatives to hedge transaction risk. As suggested by the literature on optimal hedging, hedge ratios seem to be close to 100% for firmly committed cash flows and lower for estimated or expected flows. Short maturities up to two years are most widespread for exchange rate forwards and options, while it is not unusual to see cross-currency swaps with maturities of a decade or more.  The management of translation risk is not completely documented and seems to vary a lot across firms.  In their approach to longer-term economic risk, some firms rely on rolling over of shortterm derivative hedges. Many reduce their exposure to economic risk by matching of costs and revenues, either through financial instruments or through the geographical structure of sourcing, production and sales. This is in line with part of the empirical literature that suggests that operational and financial hedges are complements. None of the companies surveyed explicitly refers to the option value of operational flexibility discussed in the literature on operational hedges.
  • 23. 23 CONCLUSION The empirical literature and the survey of non-financial companies in the EuroStoxx50 index indicate that exposure to exchange rate variations is a major issue for euro-area firms. This contrasts somewhat with the literature on US corporations. It is plausible that the euro area as a more open entity is more exposed to exchange rate variations than the US. Euro invoicing effectively shifts transaction risk to the foreign importers. Close to 50% of euro-area exports to countries outside the EU are invoiced in euro, and the share of the euro is higher in exports to other EU countries. As suggested by the literature on the optimal choice of invoicing currency, domestic-currency invoicing of euro-area exports increased with the introduction of the euro. At the same time, invoicing in US dollar continues to play a much larger role than the share of euro-area exports to the US would suggest. This paper finds hedging with exchange rate derivatives such as forwards and options to be very widespread, in line with the literature that suggests it is effective in reducing exposure to exchange rate risk, at least over the shorter run. However, neither domestic-currency invoicing nor derivative hedging easily lend themselves to managing the broader economic risk (i.e. the risk of loss of competitiveness as a result of exchange rate fluctuations). This paper discusses non-derivative financial hedges as well as operational hedges that address also economic risk. The survey of large euro-area companies shows that many make use of these instruments, in particular matching foreign currency revenues (assets) with expenditure (liabilities) in the same currency and the international diversification of sourcing, production and sales. Overall, this paper suggests that euro-area exporters have instruments at hand to protect themselves against euro appreciation and that they make ample use of them. This has probably
  • 24. 24 contributed to the simultaneous strength of euro-area exports and corporate profits in the face of the euro appreciation over the past years. However, the scope for managing medium-term economic risk is more limited than that for managing short-term variations of the exchange rate. Operational hedging and hedging through foreign currency loans is almost by definition the domain of large multinational companies that have the capacity to relocate, to tap international financial markets and dispose of internationally accepted collateral. Real and financial globalisation is increasing these hedging possibilities with more widespread relocation of production and increased depth of local financial markets. What is more, the use of financial hedges is also positively related to firm size, probably due to fix costs for setting up a hedging function. The EuroStoxx50 companies surveyed here are not representative for the larger group of euroarea exporters. Smaller, less diversified exporting firms may find it harder to manage their exchange rate risk than large multinationals. However, recent financial market developments and technological advances (IT, risk management techniques) have made the use of derivatives for hedging less costly and their design easier, and the use of financial hedges by smaller firms seems to be increasing.
  • 25. 25 BIBLOGRAPHY  http://forextrading.about.com/od/forexbasics/a/forex.htm  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_risk  http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/foreignexchangerisk.asp  https://en.santandertrade.com/bank-with-us/global/international-trade- guide-risk-coverage  http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication11475_en.  http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67l.  http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2015/031715.htm
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