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The Cloud Generation - IT Brand Pulse presentation at Zadara Summit 2015

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From electricity to storage - utility models throughout history and the new cloud generation.

Frank Berry is founder, CEO and senior analyst at IT Brand Pulse, a trusted source of testing, research and analysis covering data center infrastructure.

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie
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The Cloud Generation - IT Brand Pulse presentation at Zadara Summit 2015

  1. 1. The Cloud Generation Frank Berry Founder & Analyst 1
  2. 2. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 2 Cloud Counter Culture
  3. 3. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 3 Proposing a Cloud Project
  4. 4. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 4 "I wanna hear the Glenn Miller Orchestra and I wanna see cops beating up cloud providers!“ – Joe Tucci
  5. 5. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 5 Cloud Establishment
  6. 6. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 6 The Man
  7. 7. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 7 The Journey Ahead
  8. 8. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 8 The Evolution of Utility Grids
  9. 9. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Evolutionary Phases Before Grid Private Grid Utility Grid
  10. 10. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Brush Arc generator Arc lighting station Nearby arc lights Before Grid
  11. 11. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Tesla AC generator Niagara Falls power station Fluorescent lights & street cars in Buffalo Private Grid Before Jeff Bezos
  12. 12. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Itaipu power plant Powering 25% of Brazil and 75% of Paraguay Turbines Utility Grid
  13. 13. wwww.itbrandpulse.com National Electrical Grid 120VAC available anywhere in the U.S.…
  14. 14. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Grid Infrastructure Power plants, dams, power lines…
  15. 15. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Electricity as a Service Usage is metered. Customers pay for what they use.
  16. 16. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Private Infrastructure Customer-specific infrastructure owned or leased
  17. 17. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 1920 “Electrify Your Home” Campaign Your House is Not Electrically Modern Without the Following: Electric name and house number plate Porch lights Doorbell Automatic door-opener and latch Burglar alarm Electric oven Electric dishwasher Electric water heater Electric waffle iron Electric shaving mug Electric curling iron Electric hair dryer Electric massager Electric bed warmer Electric toaster Electric percolator Sewing machine Vacuum cleaner Washing machine
  18. 18. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 1921 Article About New Technology “…the owner reads all the meters and sells that current back to the tenants. If the owner chooses not to handle this responsibility, he or she can hire a meter company to come in and read meters, bill tenants, adjust disputes, and maintain the house meter equipment — all for a fixed rate…” The authors find this arrangement “very satisfactory because it frees up the owner from the drudgery of bookkeeping and electrical maintenance, and metering company specialists soon become experts in this work.”
  19. 19. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Scalability Before Grid (DC generators) Corporate Grid (AC generators) Utility Grid (Electrical Grid) 70,000 Bulbs 1881 37M Access in U.S. 1930 320M Access in U.S. 2015
  20. 20. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Crank telephone Shared telephone lines Manual switching Before Grid
  21. 21. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Dedicated telephone lines Rotary telephone Manual directory assistance Private Grid
  22. 22. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Mobile telephone Wireless networks Automated telephony for everyone, anywhere in global telephone grid Utility Grid
  23. 23. wwww.itbrandpulse.com National Telephone Grid 300 geographically dispersed Area Codes…
  24. 24. wwww.itbrandpulse.com National Wireless Cell Grids 46.5% of adults are cell-only…
  25. 25. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Wired & Wireless Grid Infrastructure Switching, Base Stations, Cell Towers…
  26. 26. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Telephone as a Service Services and fees tailored to each customer…
  27. 27. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Private Infrastructure IP-based Wired & Wireless Systems…
  28. 28. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Scalability Before Grid Corporate Grid 800K Telephones in service in 1900 30M Telephones in service in 1948 Utility Grid 204M Smartphones in US in 2015
  29. 29. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 29 Cloud Computing: The 5th Utility
  30. 30. wwww.itbrandpulse.com ManualProprietary Discrete Before Grid
  31. 31. wwww.itbrandpulse.com AutomatedIndustry Standards Before Grid Private Grid Virtualized
  32. 32. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Open Source Cloud Automation Strategy Benefit Make deployments automated Without automation impossible Expose well designed APIs to users Offloads presentation complexity to clients Remove state for mid tier services Allows easy elastic scale out Push temporal state to client and caching tier Leverage clients, avoids data tier overload Use partitioned data storage Data design and storage scales with HA Utility Grid
  33. 33. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Global Cloud Grid Dispersed for availability and performance
  34. 34. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Cloud Grid Infrastructure Open source SW, white box HW & open interfaces
  35. 35. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Servers, storage, networking, apps, management… Everything-as-a-Service
  36. 36. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Market for Private Infrastructure Commercial Versions of Open Source SW and White Box HW Traditional Switch White Box Switch Brite Box Switch Cisco OS Cisco ASIC Cumulus OS Broadcom ASIC Cumulus OS Broadcom ASIC $300-$400 per port $50-$125 per port $150-$300 per port
  37. 37. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Scalability At the 2014 AWS re:Invent, Amazon VP James Hamilton said AWS deploys in one day the infrastructure needed to support Amazon’s ecommerce business when it was at $7B of revenue per year. And they did it 365 times last year.
  38. 38. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 38 Why it took so long
  39. 39. wwww.itbrandpulse.com The Cloud Services Void Slow Rate of Change Proprietary Technology Expensive Hardware, Software & Service
  40. 40. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Think Differently, Act Differently 40 Core Business IT 100% 0% Spending No motivation for disruption because the impact of IT savings on overall P&L is small. And when IT has a big impact on core business continuity, organizations take the safest, lowest risk approach. Industry IT Spending as a % of Revenue Software Publishing & Internet Services 6.7% Banking & Financial Services 6.3% Media & Entertainment 5.0% Education 4.7% Professional Services 4.2% Healthcare Providers 4.2% Telecommunications 3.8% Insurance 3.2% Pharmaceuticals, Life Sciences & Medical Products 3.2% Utilities 2.8% Transportation 2.6% Industrial Electronics and Electrical Equipment 2.5% Consumer Products 1.9% Industrial Manufacturing 1.7% Retail & Wholesale 1.5% Chemicals 1.3% Food & Beverage Processing 1.3% Energy 1.1% Construction, Materials and Natural Resources 1.0%
  41. 41. wwww.itbrandpulse.com The Big Bang Hyperscale
  42. 42. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 1Gbs 10Gbs 100Gbs 1Tbs 10Tbs 100Tbs 100Mbs 10Mbs “I Felt a Great Disturbance in the Force” 1Pbs 25Gbs 50Gbs Ethernet Speed Trajectory
  43. 43. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Disruptive Innovation Driven by Hyperscales 43 Performance that customers can utilize or absorb Disruptive Innovations Sustaining Innovations 10G 40G 25G 50G 100G
  44. 44. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Putting the hyper in hyperscale required new technologies, products and practices 44 Million Server Club Servers >2M >1M >1M Source: IT Brand Pulse Source: WSJ
  45. 45. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Disruptive innovation was not an option for hyperscale profitability 45 Amazon operating income in Q1’14 was $146M. A 40% savings in IaaS spending due to use of open-source technology = $400M or $1.6B/yr. Facebook revenue was $10.8B and net income was $1.07B in 3 years 2010-2012. During that period they reported savings of $1.2B by doing their own designs “Thanks to OCP and related efficiency work, we announced that we’ve saved $2 billion in infrastructure costs over the course of the last three years.” - Facebook, March, 2015 Other IT (Core Business) 100% 0% Spending
  46. 46. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 46 Enterprise IT Hyperscale for the masses
  47. 47. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Open Interfaces Unchained the Software Defined Universe 47 Nova Neutron Cinder Swift RESTful Horizon AWS
  48. 48. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Free to Implement Software Defined Data Centers 48 Predominant Architecture in 10 Years Software Defined Data Center Server Hypervisors Storage & Networking Apps Servers Predominant Architecture Today Servers Networking Storage Any Hypervisor Any Server Vendor-Specific SW Vendor-Specific HW Vendor-Specific SW Vendor-Specific HW
  49. 49. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Free to Innovate with Software-based Services 49 Cloud Provider Develop, Deploy, PublishService-Centric Innovation Cycle Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Standards Organizations Equipment Vendors Storage Demand Drive Develop Implement Sell Deploy Hardware- Centric Innovation Cycle Services over bare metal networks speed deployment of new technology.
  50. 50. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Storage and Networking Become Apps App Server Clusters Emai l DB VD I Software Defined Storage Clusters NFV App Clusters Cloud Operating System Clusters 50
  51. 51. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Software Defined Servers in 10 Years (Actual) 51 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 New Workloads Virtualized New Workloads Not Virtualized Source: Gartner
  52. 52. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Software Defined Networking in 10 Years (Forecast) 52 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Enterprise SDN Traditional Enterprise Networking Hyperscale SDS Private Cloud Public Cloud Source: Wikibon & IT Brand Pulse SDN Orchestration NFV Apps Open Networking Switches Commercial versions of open source based SDN Orchestration and NFV Apps, Open Networking Switches
  53. 53. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Software Define Storage in 10 Years (Forecast) 53 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Enterprise SDS Traditional Enterprise Storage Hyperscale SDS SDS Apps Storage-as-a-Service White Box Servers Private Cloud Public Cloud Source: Wikibon and IT Brand Pulse Commercial versions of Enterprise SDS
  54. 54. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Enterprise Infrastructure Leader Trajectory 54 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cisco 40.0 43.2 46.1 48.6 47.1 Dell 52.9 61.5 62.1 56.9 EMC 17.0 20.0 21.7 23.2 24.4 HP 126.0 127.2 120.4 112.3 111.5 IBM 99.9 106.9 104.5 99.8 92.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Billions Private Traditional Enterprise IT Leader Revenue Trend
  55. 55. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Cost of 250TB Growing at 25% per year 55 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 EMC VNXe 3200 $192,922 $213,468 $242,108 $308,338 $380,010 NetApp E2700 $60,206 $87,838 $144,718 $196,890 $261,622 NEC M110 $83,017 $103,285 $130,975 $178,055 $225,203 Dot Hill Ultra56 $55,979 $64,493 $87,555 $104,713 $123,774 SUSE Enterprise Storage $70,100 $76,579 $84,825 $96,238 $108,607 $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Source: IT Brand Pulse
  56. 56. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 10 more years of steep cloud price reductions 56 15 years 2011-2026
  57. 57. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 57 Traditional Enterprise IT Market
  58. 58. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 58 Traditional Enterprise IT Market IT as a Service Market
  59. 59. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Green Field Blue Sky Market for IaaS 59 Telecom Services IaaSIT Services Other Enterprise Software Data Center Systems 2015 Global IT Spending ($3.8 Trillion) $16.6B $143B
  60. 60. wwww.itbrandpulse.com Vendor Switch Past: Enterprise HW Defined Ecosystem Switch OS Appliances Router Firewall Load Balancer Etc. Vendor NOS Orchestration Monitoring Vendor Storage Software Failover DeDup Compression Etc. Hypervisor Vendor or Merchant Switch ASIC Vendor Storage System Vendor Server Cisco & Dwarves EMC & Dwarves HP, IBM, Dell, Lenovo Merchant Server OS Merchant Server Processor Block, File, Object Merchant Server Processor
  61. 61. wwww.itbrandpulse.com White Box Server Cloud Platform Future: Enterprise SW Defined Ecosystem NFV Router Firewall Load Balancer Etc. SDN Orchestration Controller Switches Monitoring Software Defined Storage Block File Object Failover, Dedup, Compression Hypervisor Merchant Server OS Bare Metal Server Merchant Server Processor White Box Switch Merchant Switch OS Bare Metal Switch Merchant Programmable Switch ASIC
  62. 62. wwww.itbrandpulse.com You are leading IT organizations across the Chasm 62
  63. 63. wwww.itbrandpulse.com 63 The Cloud Generation
  64. 64. 64 Thank You frank.berry@itbrandpulse.com

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