This document summarizes projections of future Arctic climate from the research of Zachary Labe. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of 0.8 million km2 per decade as Arctic temperatures rise more than twice as fast as the global average. This warming amplifies in the Arctic (Arctic amplification) and is influencing weather patterns in northern mid-latitudes. Research indicates that continued sea ice loss will cause significant warming over the Arctic Ocean and a shift in the jet stream, with impacts on weather extremes. Understanding Arctic climate variability is important for assessing future local and remote responses to changes in the region.
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1. Projections of a future
Arctic climate
@ZLabe
Zachary Labe
University of California, Irvine
14 May 2019
Irvine Valley College
2. Zack Labe
Pioneer Coal Mine Blue Whale of Catoosa Centralia Underground Fire Roadside America Greenland Sea (81°N)
Linglestown, PA Cornell â Ithaca, New York 4th Year, PhD â EarthSS
Study: Arctic â midlatitude climate variability
Enjoy: roadside oddities and diners
Hobbies: gardening, #scicomm, hiking,
collecting/traveling to lighthouses
Dream: study in isolated Ny-Ă lesund, Svalbard
19. ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION
WHY
Sea ice extent is dropping at a
rate of nearly
0.8 million km2/decade
Temperatures rising >2x as
fast as the globally averaged
mean
23. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)
24. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)
25. [ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)
[ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
55. Changing
Sea Ice Thickness
MELIA ET AL., 2016
âSea ice Decline and 21st
century trans-Arctic
shipping routesâ
PIZZOLATO ET AL.,
2016âThe influence of declining sea
ice on shipping activity in the
Canadian Arcticâ
POST ET AL., 2013
âEcological consequences
of sea-ice declineâ
LABE ET AL., 2018
âContributions of ice thickness
to the atmospheric response
from projected arctic sea ice
lossâ
63. WHY
How does Arctic amplification
influence extreme weather
events?
Has it?
Will it?
Can it?
Necessary to understand
mechanisms of Arctic climate
variability before assessing
future local/remote responses
Barnes and
Screen [2015]
65. Future Arctic
What happens to the weather
from a loss of projected sea ice
area and sea ice thickness?
Significant warming over the
Arctic Ocean
Shift of the jet stream
LABE ET AL. 2018, GR
66. Future Arctic
What happens to the weather
from a loss of projected sea ice
area and sea ice thickness?
Significant warming over the
Arctic Ocean
Shift of the jet stream
LABE ET AL. 2018, GR
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