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Apps vs Browser

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Apps vs Browser

  1. 1. Take 2
  2. 2. Jon, would you like to present with me at Cannes on mobile this year? That would be awesome! Thanks Simon…
  3. 3. Great…in the first hour I am going to cover everything known to man about mobile …
  4. 4. … what would you like to do in the 2 nd hour?
  5. 5. … and btw can you make it interactive as well please with no wireless or 3G?
  6. 8. For me, Wired Magazine and a gadget… Source: Wired, July 2010 How awesome is this picture? How awesome is this gadget?
  7. 9. Does the rise of the App spell the end for the Browser?
  8. 12. +44 762 480 6527 Text: APPS Text: BROWSER Or Text: NOTSURE
  9. 14. I will present the counter argument too…just in case When you see the angry lady – duck!
  10. 15. So let us begin
  11. 16. Since the beginning of the internet…
  12. 17. + Most of us have experienced the internet in an entirely browser-centric way, interacting with websites
  13. 18. It looked a bit like this to begin with…
  14. 19. Then it looked like this…
  15. 20. Now, increasingly it looks like this
  16. 21. But the building block of the mobile web isn’t the website…
  17. 22. It’s the app…
  18. 23. Using Twitter? There’s an 81.43% chance you are using an app Source: Twitstat
  19. 24. Established web-friendly firms are finding that consumers prefer engaging with them on apps… … but it’s not just pure plays. High street banks and supermarkets are seeing it too.
  20. 25. “ Apps on mobile devices may soon overtake the web itself as the main platform for consumer software…” Source: Wired, July 2010 Tim O’Reilly’s chin…of Web2.0 fame
  21. 26. So certain are you Mr O’Reilly?
  22. 27. Estimated Global Install Base, 2013 PCs Smartphone & browser equipped phones Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond: A New Balance 1.82bn 1.78bn
  23. 29. We’re addicted to them… … they’re not called Crackberries for nothing!
  24. 31. But why the app and not the browser?
  25. 32. Hardware specific apps are more tightly integrated into the device than a browser
  26. 34. “ But a browser can do some / all of those things”
  27. 36. So hardware integration can be achieved in a browser – but its rare.
  28. 37. <ul><li>Mobile web usability [generally] sucks: </li></ul><ul><li>Small screens </li></ul><ul><li>Awkward input </li></ul><ul><li>Download delays </li></ul><ul><li>Poor site design </li></ul>So says Jakob Nielsen…and he knows a thing or two about usability!!! Apps mitigate a lot of these issues
  29. 38. But if the sites are properly designed for the mobile “touch web” then they can be used in browsers
  30. 39. Taptu provide mobile touch web search functions This data seems to suggest that the mobile “touch” web is going to outpace the development of apps… but is it really?
  31. 40. Data hungry functions are better suited to an app environment. If e-mail could be adequately handled in the browser, why do Blackberries exist (and command such share)?
  32. 41. Ummm…
  33. 42. Apps are less connection dependent
  34. 43. Instapaper Jamie Oliver Wired
  35. 44. Ever lost these? Search is stupid – you know what you want, you just don’t know where to find it The browser is predicated on the idea of seeking what you want on the web.
  36. 45. But we are moving from a search-based web to a web that delivers what we want based on our expressed and implied preferences
  37. 46. Pulse News Reader is an example of the next generation of apps delivering info to us rather than us having to go and find it
  38. 47. <ul><li>Siri in the US is an app that you can speak to ask it to do things – like a PA </li></ul><ul><li>“ What’s a good sushi restaurant near here?” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Book me a table please Siri” </li></ul>
  39. 48. But you can do that stuff in the browser too
  40. 49. Yes, of course. But these apps are just not being developed for the mobile web. Why is that?
  41. 50. Supply-side factors
  42. 52. An almost limitless supply of ad inventory pushes advertising CPMs through the floor and makes it difficult to make money from content online
  43. 53. Mr Murdoch has long struggled to make money from internet content – so now he’s locked his away behind a paywall
  44. 54. Content = Free Why?
  45. 55. Why should publishers produce content for [almost] free?
  46. 56. … and the end of free But now Apple have created the ultimate paywall…
  47. 57. … and so publishers celebrate and embrace apps for their ability to monetise content
  48. 58. To date: 10,000 iPad apps 225,000 apps in Apple’s App Store 5bn downloads + 50,000 Google Android apps
  49. 59. And that’s without advertising revenue…which is coming And that’s before this lot get in on the act…which they already are
  50. 60. And the big boys are gearing up to take their advertising dollars off them too…
  51. 61. $10 CPM AND $2 CPC Minimum investment $1m Source: Wall Street Journal
  52. 62. 60% is going back to the app developer!
  53. 63. Which isn’t going to help the mobile web development market place much <insert mournful eerie wind sound here>
  54. 64. Hang on – I saw a Google logo back there. Their whole business model is predicated on the searchable web
  55. 65. Yup, Google have got a substantial vested interest in continuing to perpetuate a searchable browser-based web
  56. 66. But they can afford to bet on all the horses in this race. Wouldn’t you if you were Google?
  57. 67. The stock market also give us some insight into the way this is going to go?
  58. 68. Markets factor future profit expectations into stock prices and market capitalisations
  59. 69. “ Nom nom nom”
  60. 70. But it is down to the product…
  61. 71. Or? 5bn+ downloads
  62. 72. It’s both, but undoubtedly the App Store is helping Apple’s market capitalisation “ The global market for mobile applications is expected to more than triple from just under $10 billion at the end of 2009 to $32 billion in 2015” “ In April 2009, Apple had 35% of the download market but only 1% of the mobile device install base”
  63. 73. An Apple dictatorship cannot be good for the Web
  64. 74. I’m a fanboy but couldn’t agree more…
  65. 75. But it’s not just Apple 100,000 activations per day 50,000 apps in the Android store Another big Google bet
  66. 76. Google TV will leverage the Android Marketplace Another bigger bet still
  67. 77. And hardware manufacturers are jumping aboard too Samsung’s new range of 3D TVs come with their own app store
  68. 78. And there are a lot of TVs in the world
  69. 79. So, that’s the argument from both sides…
  70. 80. Conclusion
  71. 81. Volume Price Demand Supply Ultimately the laws of consumer demand and content supply will determine which is the preferred method for accessing internet content
  72. 82. My prediction
  73. 85. The results
  74. 87. A parting thought
  75. 88. What is the browser if not an app?
  76. 89. Enjoy Cannes Jon Wade – Digital Strategy Director, UK [email_address] Twitter: @oo0x0oo

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  • Since the beginning of the internet