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Hutton gail

  1. 1. THE APPLICATIONS OF ICE THROW MODELLING TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING IN COLD CLIMATES DR GAIL HUTTON CSTAT CSCI SENIOR STATISTICAL ANALYST, RES GROUP 13 FEBRUARY 2013 1
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION • If ice is released when turbine blades are in motion then ice is thrown • For purposes of risk assessment RES has been developing a physical/statistical model of ice throw trajectories • This takes into account – a physical model of the trajectory of an ice fragment – Stochastic/statistical models of wind characteristics on-site – Turbine characteristics – Hub height • Used to produce a risk density map • This could have implications for – Public safety – Planning/Layout – Infrastructure 1. Why/How? 2
  3. 3. APPLICATIONS TO RES SITES – SO FAR • Site 1 – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to a public road – Assessment of the engineering requirements of the roof of a viewing tower located on-site close to a small turbine • Site 2 – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to overhead power lines • Site 3 - Havsnäs – Assessment of the risk of ice strike on snowmobile tracks 1. Why/How? 3
  4. 4. SITE 1– ICE STRIKE ON A PUBLIC ROAD N 15 % 10 % 5% W E Pr(Ice strikes road|Ice is thrown) = 3.74E-4 S 1.5(D+H)=292.5 m Max. throw from simulation  220 m Expected strikes on road per year  2 Expected # strikes on transport/year = 4.2E-4 1 strike on a passing vehicle per 2,400 years 2. Examples 4
  5. 5. SITE 3 – ICE STRIKE ON SNOWMOBILE TRACKS HAVSNAS - RESULTS 1.5(D+H)=277.5 m Max. throw from simulation  230 m Areas of overlap of the risk contours with the snowmobile tracks are small Expected # ice fragments on snowmobile tracks/yr = 6 Expect 1 ice strike on a snowmobile once every 880 years 5
  6. 6. VALIDATION OF ICE THROW MODEL • Observations of ice throw and locations of impact made at two turbines on a Swedish site in December 2012/January 2013 – Does the ice land in the positions predicted by the model? – How does observed maximum throw distance compare to modelled throw distance? 3. Validation 6
  7. 7. DAY 1 – 27TH DECEMBER 2012 3. Validation 7
  8. 8. DAY 2 – 8TH JANUARY 2013 3. Validation 8
  9. 9. CONCLUSIONS • Development of the ice throw simulation model allows us to quantify risk – And address public safety/infrastructure/planning issues with more confidence • Estimates of public safety risk are very small • By comparison with the 1.5(D+H) rule of thumb for planning the RES ice throw model gives shorter throw distances • Model validation by on-site observation gives promising results – Will continue to monitor ice throw this Winter 4. Conclusions 9
  10. 10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Thanks to Alan Derrick, Magnus Hopstadius, Lars Persson, Christer Norlén, Victor Donnet and Lenton McLendon at RES & the Swedish Energy Agency (who part-funded this project) ANY QUESTIONS? 4. Conclusions 10
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