Gold's image as a haven asset has taken a battering with the metal heading for its third-straight annual loss amid the sale of gold-backed funds by investors. Bullion for immediate delivery
rose 0.2 per cent to $1,063.22 an ounce at 3:32 pm. in Singapore after declining 0.7 per cent on Wednesday,
5. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ PRECIOUS METAL
China expects its energy consumption to grow in 2016, the official Xinhua news agency of
the world's largest energy consumer said on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom, the world's top crude exporter,
does not limit its output and has the capacity to meet additional demand, the Wall Street
Journal reported on Wednesday.
U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week on a bigger-than-expected build in distillate
and gasoline inventories and higher imports, data from the Energy Information
Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels in the
last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 2.5 million barrels.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 892,000 barrels to a record,
EIA said. Gasoline stocks rose by 925,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in
a Reuters poll for a 896,000-barrel gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and
heating oil, rose by 1.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.0 million-barrel
increase, the EIA data showed.
✍ Gold
Gold's image as a haven asset has taken a battering with the metal heading for its third-straight
annual loss amid the sale of gold-backed funds by investors. Bullion for immediate delivery
rose 0.2 per cent to $1,063.22 an ounce at 3:32 pm. in Singapore after declining 0.7 per cent on
Wednesday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.It's down 10 per cent this year following a
1.4 per cent drop in 2014 and a 28 per cent loss in 2013. Gold is in the longest slump since
2000 as the dollar surged on the back of monetary policy tightening in the US, joining a
collapse in prices of commodities from iron ore to oil. Holdings in gold exchange-traded
products have declined 10 times in the last 13 sessions to 1,466.45 metric tons, near the lowest
in more than six years. "Gold is suffering from the general exodus out of commodity
investments," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said
by e-mail. Being one of the most-traded commodities through ETF's, the selling pressure from
paper investors has been felt particularly hard and gold's safe-haven status has suffered." Gold
will face a tough challenge at the start of 2016 and prices may drop toward the $1,000 level
before recovering toward $1,200 by the end of the year as the dollar and bond yields retreat,
Hansen said. The first interest rate increase since 2006 took place this month and traders are
now looking to the pace at which the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs in 2016. While
HSBC Holdings Plc predicts just two rate increases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among
banks that see four. Bullion will drop to $950 by the end of next year, according to Barnabas
Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., who's the top ranked precious metals
6. forecaster.Spot silver is also headed for a third year of declines after dropping 11 per cent in
2015. Palladium slumped 31 per cent, the most since 2008, while platinum lost 28 per cent. The
two metals, used in catalytic converters that curb car and truck emissions, fell this year partly
because of the Volkswagen AG emissions scandal, which hurt prospects for demand.
Gold fell on Wednesday, as the combination of a firm dollar and weak oil prices left the metal
on track for its third consecutive annual loss. Bullion has lost 10 percent of its value this year,
largely on concerns that higher U.S. interest rates would hurt demand for the non-yielding
asset. With little market-moving data due this week, bullion traders will rely on cues from the
currency and oil markets, analysts said. Following the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to raise
interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade this month and indications that the central
bank would resort to gradual increases in 2016, the outlook for gold does not look bullish. Gold
typically follows oil as the metal is often seen as a hedge against oilled inflation. Brent crude
oil retreated towards 11-year lows on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's oil minister made it clear
the kingdom had no plans to scale back its output. Investor interest in gold remained absent,
with assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, still near a seven-
year low. Speculative short positions on COMEX gold contracts are close to an all-time high.
Gold prices fell over nine per cent in 2015, recording its third consecutive year of decline, after
investors sought refuge in other asset classes, primarily equities and currencies, for higher
returns. Starting the year at $1,184.86 an oz (ounce) gold remained highly volatile throughout
2015 before closing at $1,067 an oz in London. Over five per cent depreciation in the rupee
against the dollar, however, cushioned domestic prices that fell 5.7 per cent to Rs 25,450 per 10
grams The pressure on gold was due to the intermittent recovery in the US economy led by a
frequent drawdown in its unemployment. US Fed Chair Janet Yellen finally announced a 0.25
per cent hike in interest rate in December 2015 after deferring it for a few times during the
year. But, a dovish outlook on US interest rate helped gold from falling sharply. "More than the
0.25 per cent of interest rate hike, Yellen's language on the US economy was important in terms
of future rate hikes. Ideally, gold should have fallen after the interest rate hike, but, it moved in
a close range which indicates that nothing can be said firmly on the US economic growth for
future," said Jayant Manglik, president (retail distribution), Religare Equities. Silver followed
suit due to lack of investment demand and global economic slowdown led by China. The white
precious metal hit its five-year low in July 2015 following the rout in other industrial
commodities. It fell 11.8 per cent to $13.86 an oz from $15.71 an oz on December 31, 2014. A
strengthening US dollar added further pressure on precious metals. "Events that supported
gold's fall in 2015 look to continue in 2016 with many developed economies (China, Japan and
European countries) getting a booster of quantitative easing to protect them from falling," said
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research. Quantitative easing may further
strengthen the US dollar. Since the dollar is inversely correlated with gold and silver may
remain under pressure in 2016.
7. ✍ Crude Oil
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Iranian diplomats had 48 hours to leave the
kingdom and Iran's supreme leader said Saudi Arabia would face "quick consequences" for
executing the cleric. Fearing further upheaval in the already volatile Middle East, the United
States has urged regional leaders to take measures to soothe tensions. At around 0230 GMT,
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in February was up 48 cents, or 1.30%, at
$37.52 and Brent crude for February was trading 61 cents, or 1.64%, higher at $37.89. "Oil
started the new year on the mend, as Asian markets reacted to fears that geopolitical tensions in
the Middle East may threaten the supply of oil," said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG
Markets in Singapore. Despite the rise, Aw said however that the persistent global crude
oversupply will continue to weigh down on prices over the longer term. "Unless we see a
convincing drop in oil output from these two nations, and the broader oil producing
community, the supply glut issue will persist, which means oil prices would remain under
pressure for a longer period," he said. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last month decided against cutting output levels
despite a plunge in oil prices. Iran is also a key OPEC member.
Crude prices fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday, with Brent sliding toward 11-year lows,
after an unusual build in U.S. stockpiles and signs Saudi Arabia will keep adding to the global
oil glut. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's largest petroleum producer, rose 2.6
million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Analysts polled by
Reuters had expected a draw of 2.5 million barrels. Stockpiles hit record highs at the Cushing,
Oklahoma delivery hub for Crude prices, however, did not lose much after their initial decline
on the EIA data. Some attributed that to thin, holiday-season volumes. WTI's front-month
contract traded just over 240 million barrels on Wednesday, about half of levels seen two
weeks ago, Reuters data showed. Crude prices began falling on Tuesday itself, retracing gains
in postsettlement trade after preliminary inventory data from industry group American
Petroleum Institute showed a build.
Natural gas futures fell 7 percent on Wednesday after
forecasts shifted to warmer weather, cutting short a four-day rally that boosted the price of the
heating fuel by more than 25 percent. Also weighing on the market were expectations that U.S.
gas stockpiles remained above normal for this time of year and not far from record highs
despite a strong draw forecast for last week. In the past four sessions, NYMEX's front-month
contract had risen nearly 50 cents on colder weather across most of the United States after
balmy conditions through much of autumn. Weather forecasts over the past week also indicated
the possibility of colder temperatures in the near term that prompted speculators to bet the key
winter months of January and February may have larger gas drawdowns too. Those expectation
8. ✍ Copper
Global apparent copper demand dropped 1.5%, or 250,000 tons, in the first nine months of
2015, as compared to the corresponding period last year, according to data from the
International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Apparent demand fell 4% and 8% YoY in the
European Union and Japan, respectively, in the first nine months of the year. Apparent demand
in the Americas rose 1.5% over this period.
Copper held steady on Wednesday, but expectations of surplus metal and weak demand in top
consumer China mean prices look likely to come under further pressure over coming sessions.
Copper hit a 6-1/2 year low below $4,450 last month. China accounts for nearly half of global
copper consumption estimated at 23 million tonnes this year.The ICSG provides a consolidated
estimate for the Americas. According to the ICSG, Chinese apparent copper demand rose 0.5%
YoY in the first nine months of the year. With the exclusion of China, global apparent copper
demand fell 3.5% over this period. The ICSG estimated that China’s apparent copper demand
in fiscal 2015 would be similar to last year’s level.
✍ Lead
Tracking a weak trend at domestic spot market on subdued demand, lead fell 0.38% to Rs
118.75 per kg in futures trade today as traders trimmed their holdings. In futures trading at
Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month contracts shed 45 paise or
0.38% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a business turnover of 293 lots. Also, metal for delivery in
January contracts fell 40 paise or 0.34% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a turnover of 103 lots .Analysts
said that subdued demand from battery-makers and other consuming industries at the domestic
spot market, mainly kept pressure on lead futures prices here but firmness in base metal pack at
the London Metal Exchange capped the losses.
✍Nickel
Supported by a firming trend overseas, nickel prices jumped 0.50% to Rs 577.60 per kg in
futures trading today as participants widened their positions. Besides, rising demand at
domestic spot markets from alloy-makers also gave support. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, nickel for delivery this month rose Rs 2.90, or 0.50%, to Rs 577.60 per kg in a
business turnover of 1,169 lots. The metal for delivery in January also gained Rs 2.40, or
0.41%, to trade at Rs 583.50 per kg in 866 lots. Marketmen said a firming trend in the base
metal pack at the London Metal Exchange (LME) amid speculation that demand conditions in
China may stabilise into next year as some producers start to scale back output to stem losses
and cut costs and pick up in domestic demand, mainly led to the rise in nickel futures here.
9. ✍ Aluminium
Aluminium prices fell by 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in futures trade today after traders reduced
their exposure amid muted domestic demand even as the metal strengthened at the London
Metal Exchange. At Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in current month
eased 30 paise or 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in a business turnover of 99 lots. Also, the metal
for delivery in January 2016 contracts traded lower by 30 paise or 0.29% to Rs 101.85 per kg in
53 lots. Marketmen said the weakness in aluminium in futures trade is mostly due to sluggish
demand from consuming industries at the domestic market but metal's gain overseas limited the
losses.
✍NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ New crop insurance Initiatives
Crop insurance will be more attractive and farmer friendly after a new crop insurance scheme
early next year. Apart from extending scope and coverage in terms of area, crops and risk, the
aim is to ensure premium rates that states and farmers have to pay comes down.The minister
said dependence on digital technology — drones and satellites— would increase to map
farmland. The agriculture ministry has launched a pilot study for mapping farmland using space
technology and geospatial technology that will help improve crop yield estimation and settle
insurance claims faster. Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC) is undertaking
the pilot of the initiative called KISAN+ in four districts in Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya
Pradesh and Maharashtra during kharif 2015 season, and eight districts in the same states
during rabi 2015-16 season. KISAN+ project plans to use multi-parameter modelling for block
level yield estimation. At some sample locations, unmanned aerial vehicle and drones will
collect images.
✍ Jeera
Jeera prices rose 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal in futures trading on turesday as participants
built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in domestic as well as export demand in the spot
market.Besides, tight stocks on restricted supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend.
At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in January 2016 rose
by Rs 135, or 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal with an open interest of 8,613 lots.Similarly, the
spice for delivery in March contracts gained Rs 110, or 0.78% to Rs 14,275 per quintal in 3,399
lots.Rise in jeera futures prices to fresh positions built up by traders amid pick up domestic as
well as export demand in the spot market.
10. Jeera Jan futures opened lower continuing its previous fall on improved sowing activities in
Gujarat. However, negative movement was limited on late covering of positions and closed the
trade at Rs. 14095 per quintal, down by 0.2 % from its previous trade. Jeera Spot prices at
bench mark market of Unjha traded in range of Rs.14700-15055/quintal. Pick up in sowing
activities in Gujarat after weather conditions turning suitable for sowing also weighed on the
market. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at
46700 tonnes lower by almost half of 89772 tonnes exported during same period in 2014. Stock
position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on 28th December is 2628 MT.
✍ Turmeric
Turmeric April futures lower, traded lower initially on weak supply demand factors in the
market. However, negative movement was short lived, as short covering pulled the prices
upward. Hence, turmeric April contract traded and ended the day down at Rs 9974 per quintal,
higher by 0.73% from its previous trade. On spot market front at Erode market the prices were,
for finger variety Rs.9500-9700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 200 and Bulb variety traded steady in
range of Rs. 9400-9600 per quintal. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during
April until September was at 46500 tonnes higher by 2094 tonnes from 44406 tonnes exported
during same period in 2014. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3629
tons as on 28th December 2015.
✍ Mustard seed
Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.77 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on
account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard
Seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,256 per quintal, down by 0.77 per cent,
after opening at Rs. 4,270 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,289. It touched the intra-
day low of Rs. 4,210. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result
of the weak demand for the commodity.
✍ Coriander
Coriander Jan futures reached yet another lower circuit during previous trade on hopes of rapid
pick up in sowing activity in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jan futures traded at Rs. 7942 per quintal,
6% lower from its previous close. Spot market took negative cues from futures market and
traded lower. At Kota spot, Eagle variety traded steady at Rs. 9300 per quintal and Badami
variety traded at Rs. 8700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 300 on negative cues from the spot market.
According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at 22650
tonnes lower by 6% from volume during same period in 2014. As on 28th Dec 2015, 19881
MT of valid stock is available in the NCDEX approved warehouses.
11. ✍ Chana
Chana prices closed lower by 0.04 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with
high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January 2016
contract closed at Rs. 4,805 per quintal, down by 0.04 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,812
against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,807. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,794.
12. LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market
Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained
herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the
intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities
Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be
responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research
expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions
in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to
buy any securities or commodities.
All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical
& fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any
liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product
services of their own choices.
Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done
on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment.
Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing
through website means acceptance of disclaimer.