A product development usually starts out with making educated guesses and assumptions of what you think the customer segment wants. However, you are not the customer. It is vital you test the hypotheses in the market. Only validation will ensure a robust foundation of the NPD before going into the design and build phase.

1. New Product Development
Hypothesis Validation Toolkit
CX-TK-105

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Problem:
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Solution:
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Unique
Value
proposition:
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Company
Strengths:
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Customer
segments:
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Key
Partners:
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Key
Resources /
Activities:
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Channels:
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Cost Structure:
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Key
Metrics:
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Revenue Streams:
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The Concept Capture and Customer Experience Definition phases
are particularly critical in determining product success.
Customer
Experience
Build Launch
Concept
Capture
Design Test AssessInnovation
Therefore validation of
hypothesis is essential

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Purpose
1. Validate the assumptions made in the Concept Capture and CE definition phases
2. Describe the hypothesis we want to test
3. Determine how we will test it
4. Establish what we will be measuring and whether we have met a target threshold
5. Record the results
How to use this toolkit
A product development usually starts out with making educated guesses and assumptions of what you think the
customer segment wants. However, you are not the customer. It is vital you test the hypotheses in the market. Only
validation will ensure a robust foundation of the NPD before going into the design and build phase.
Interaction with potential customers should take place throughout the NPD process. However especially in the first
few phases of the development this is of vital importance. Mistakes made in these phases can send a development
in a completely wrong direction. Furthermore, changes made to the product later in the development are often
more costly as it might require a significant amount of rework. Therefore, it is essential that assumptions made
during the early NPD phases are validated thoroughly.
This toolkit focusses on two main validation activities. One at Concept Capture phase and one during the Customer
Experience Definition phase. The validation goal in these phases is to answer: Will we create something my
customers will truly value? Keep in mind: do not sell the proposition but to listen to what the customers and the
market is telling you.
Based on the answers you improve the proposition or continue to the next phase of the NPD in which more
validation with the customers will take place.
This toolkit shows how to validate in the CC & CE phases
WWW.CXNPD.COM

4. Concept Capture phase validation CE definition phase validation
Customer Experience Definition
 A Problem / Solution fit (for the complete CX wheel)
 An understanding of the sales process and channels
to the customer
 Knowledge how to reach the customer with
marketing messages
 Customer input on getting, setting-up and using the
product
 Customer feedback on the billing methods and the
customer care process proposed
 Feedback from key internal and external partners in
the provision of the proposition
 Notional allocation of key resources and/or securing
of key activities
 Realistic estimation of cost and revenue streams
 Assurance that the key metrics can actually be
measured and reported on
 Proof that a compelling unique value proposition can
be delivered
What should be validated and evidenced?
Concept Capture
 Is there a problem to be solved?
 Would the proposed solution solve the problem?
 Is the customer interested in having this problem
solved by a new solution?
 Do you understand the customer’s needs, wants,
jobs, pains, gains....
 Does the customer show a willingness to pay or
use this product?
 Can you create a compelling differentiated value
proposition?
 Are there any show stoppers in the other boxes of
the concept canvas?

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How to validate? Types of customer research
Testing is often categorised as quantitative or qualitative customer research.
Both methods will be used in a new product development process but at the start of an NPD qualitative research will be
leading the way. This because in the initial development phases you want to create deep insights into the customers.
A word of caution on Big Data; Big Data will provide reams of quantitative data but this is all based on past actions. This
data is useful to discover trends in behaviour of existing customers and improve an existing product. However, it is of
limited use for creating new products for new customer segments. For these you have to use qualitative research.
* Adapted from sources: www.bl.uk & snapsurveys.com
Quantitative research
Is a more logical and data-led approach which
provides a measure of what people think from a
statistical and numerical point of view. It aims to
objectively measure. It seeks to explain.*
Uses larger population samples;
Often focused on past behaviour or actions;
Mostly examines what, where and when it
happened;
Generalises the results to create statistics.
Qualitative Research
Is primarily exploratory research. It is used to gain an
understanding of underlying reasons, opinions and
motivations. It seeks to understand why and how. *
Uses just enough as sample size;
Focused on how people feel, what they
think and why they make certain choices;
Dives deep into a specific problem or area.

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The starting point for validation is qualitative research. Here are some of the more common techniques:
Qualitative research is difficult as it requires good interviewing and observational skills. The interviewer should be
fully focussed on what the customer says and does. Analysing the results and drawing conclusions from qualitative
research is hard since most of the data is unstructured. Ideally the interviewer has no stake in the product
development so that personal bias can be minimised.
This initial research could lead to quantitative research and Customer Participative Design further down in the NPD.
Validation using Qualitative Research
Types of qualitative research
 Customer conversation - unstructured
 1 on 1 interviews – structured or semi structured
 Customer diary accounts
 Customer observation / participation in task
 Customer shadowing
 Document analysis (e.g. social media)
 Focus groups
 Contextual inquiry (as part of User Centred Design)
Artifacts used:
 Story Boards
 Product sketches & Wireframes
 Mock-up & Prototypes
Many techniques but the main message is:

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▪ Start by getting input to your
hypothesis and work your way
around the circle
▪ Validation with qualitative
research is an iterative process
▪ Expect the original assumption
and hypothesis to change
▪ Expect several rounds before a
hypothesis can be validated
▪ You are not the customer! Talk to
real potential customers
▪ Only validation will ensure a
robust foundation of the NPD
The validation process...
Capture learning
for NPD process
Execute
&
Collect Data
Analyse
Data
Select
Research
Method
Validate or
Update
Hypothesis
Create
Hypothesis
Get data,
Interview,
Assume...

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▪ In the NPD process, a hypothesis is an educated guess how the customer would like something to function in the
product or proposition. It is a testable prediction of something the customer would like or value.
▪ The purpose of a hypothesis is to actually test if the guess is true.
▪ Unfortunately many Marketing Requirement Documents are full of untested hypotheses. This is a key driver in many
product failures.
To create a good hypothesis keep in mind:
 The hypothesis is a statement or a prediction, not a question
 The hypothesis should be written in clear and simple language
 The hypothesis makes it clear what specific variable is being tested
 The hypothesis is testable, that is the expected impact is specific enough to be measured and tested
How to write a good NPD hypothesis?
Adapted from sources:
www.sciencebuddies.org/blog/2010/02/a-strong-hypothesis.php
www.producttalk.org/2014/11/the-5-components-of-a-good-hypothesis
A good NPD hypothesis syntax is
If .............(we develop/ build/ design) this..............................then................
............(this)................will happen (expected impact in a given time frame)

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▪ Concept validation will entail several hypotheses going through several rounds of research. Therefore, it is important to
track the learning points
▪ This can be captured in a simple spreadsheet or through the use of specific test & learning cards*
You need to track the validation to:
 Keep this validation research process on track – there will be many moving parts and much data generated
 Serve as starting point for UX design – this research is either the start of UX design or will be a valuable resource
 Provide input for further product releases – a good product is delivered in multiple releases, so this data is important
Capturing the validation learnings for the NPD process
* Source for Test & Learning cards see Strategyzer.com
Validation Learning
Learning points from validation:
I. What was the Hypothesis tested? Use the exact
hypothesis statement
II. What data did you gather?
III. What was the conclusion from the analysis? What are
the main learning points?
IV. Does this conclusion prove the hypothesis?
If yes, what will be the next step
If no, will you update the hypothesis / create a new
one or stop this line of enquiry?
Capture:
1. What is the hypothesis? List the exact hypothesis
statement
2. How will you test the hypothesis – What research
method have you selected?
3. How are you measuring the results?
4. How and when will you analyse the data?
5. What are the criteria to prove or reject the
hypothesis?

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▪ Early in the NPD process many assumptions are made. These assumptions are based on educated guesses and a gut
feel of what you think the customer segment wants. However, you are not the customer!
▪ Unfortunately, many product development hypotheses are not validated. The assumptions are turned into a
Marketing Requirement Document on which the development is based. This is a sure way to product failure.
▪ It is vital you test the hypotheses in the market. Only validation will ensure a robust foundation of the NPD. Gather
the facts and before continuing the NPD ensure you can answer the following question with a resounding YES:
Increase your chances of NPD success by validating. This CX NPD toolkit showed you:
 What needs to be validated early in the NPD process
 Why qualitative research is the leading method in this part of the NPD
 What the common methods of qualitative research are
 What process can be used for validation
 How to write a good hypothesis
 How to capture the validation learnings to keep the research on track
▪ For more information contact us on enquiries@cxnp.com or visit our website on www.cxnpd.com
Summary of Validation
Will we create something my customers will truly value?

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Think
Build
Launch
Improve Customer
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If you have any questions or would like
additional information please contact:
enquiries@cxnpd.com
www.cxnpd.com
Copyright: Customer Experience New Product Development Ltd. 2016
Customer Experience New Product Development Ltd.
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