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UNIT 1 FINANCIAL CREDIT RISK ANALYTICS (1).pptx

asst. professor um GOVT.POLYTECHNIC NIRSA
23. Mar 2023
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UNIT 1 FINANCIAL CREDIT RISK ANALYTICS (1).pptx

  1. UNIT-1 CREDIT ANALYSIS Presented by VIKASH BARNWAL Assistant Professor KIT, Varanasi
  2. CREDIT ANALYSIS  Credit analysis is the method by which one calculates the creditworthiness of a business or organization. In other words, It is the evaluation of the ability of a company to honor its financial obligations. The audited financial statements of a large company might be analyzed when it issues or has issued bonds. Or, a bank may analyze the financial statements of a small business before making or renewing a commercial loan. The term refers to either case, whether the business is large or small. A credit analyst is the finance professional undertaking this role.
  3.  Credit analysis is a type of financial analysis that an investor or bond portfolio manager performs on companies, governments, municipalities, or any other debt-issuing entities to measure the issuer's ability to meet its debt obligations. Credit analysis seeks to identify the appropriate level of default risk associated with investing in that particular entity's debt instruments.
  4.  Credit analysis is the method by which one calculates the creditworthiness of a business or organization.  The objective of credit analysis is to look at both the borrower and the lending facility being proposed and to assign a risk rating.  The risk rating is derived by estimating the probability of default by the borrower at a given confidence level over the life of the facility, and by estimating the amount of loss that the lender would suffer in the event of default.  Credit analysis involves a wide variety of financial analysis techniques, including ratio and trend analysis as well as the creation of projections and a detailed analysis of cash flows.
  5. IMPORTANCE OF CREDIT ANALYSIS- 1. Credit is an integral part of the modern economy and the global financial system. The expansion of credit has been a major contributing factor to global economic development and is often described as the lifeblood of the economy. 2. Access to credit has facilitated GDP expansion through an increase in consumption and the allocation of resources to productive purposes. 3. It has also helped to improve the efficiency and profitability of the business by enabling access to funding for things like expansion, capital expenditures, research and development, and staffing. 4. In this environment, investors are inevitably faced with tremendous amounts of potential bond offerings from companies seeking funds to perform various activities. 5. Before purchasing corporate bonds, savvy investors typically undertake credit analysis to determine whether the company has the financial ability to meet its obligations.
  6. 7C OF CREDITWORTHINESS IS Capacity, Character, Capital, Cash, Control Collateral Conditions,
  7. 7`C  Creditworthiness measures how deserving a loan applicant is to get a loan sanctioned in his favor. In other words, it is an assessment of the likelihood that a borrower will default on their debt obligations. It is based upon factors, such as their history of repayment and their credit score.  Lending Institutions also consider the availability of assets and extent of liabilities to determine the probability of default. The 7’Cs of creditworthiness indicates the characteristics or features of creditworthiness.
  8. CHARACTER  Responsibility, truthfulness, serious purpose, and serious intention to repay all monies owed make up what is called character.  The loan officer must be convinced that the customer has a well-defined purpose for requesting credit and a serious intention to repay. The loan officer must determine if the purpose is consistent with the bank’s loan policy.  Even with a good purpose. However, the loan officer must determine that the borrower has a responsible attitude toward using borrowed funds, is truthful in answering questions, and will make every effort to repay what is owed.
  9. CAPACITY  The loan officer must be sure that the customer has the authority to request a loan and the legal standing to sign a binding loan agreement; this customer characteristic is known as the capacity to borrow money.  For example, in most areas, a minor cannot legally be held responsible for a credit agreement; thus, the lender would have difficulty collecting on such a loan.  Similarly, the loan officer must be sure that the representative from a corporation asking for credit has proper authority from the company’s board of directors to negotiate a loan and sign a credit agreement binding the company.
  10. CASH  This feature of any loan application centers on the question.  Does the borrower have the ability to generate enough cash to repay the loan in the form of flow? In an accounting sense, cash flow is defined as:  Cash flow = Net profits + Noncash expenses.  This is often called traditional cash flow and can be further broken down into Cash flow = Sales revenues – Cost of goods sold – Selling, general, and administrative expenses- Taxes paid in cash + Noncash expenses.  The lender must determine if this volume of the annual cash flow will be sufficient to comfortably cover repayment of the loan and deal with any unexpected expenses.  Loan officers should look at five areas carefully when lending money to business firms or other institutions. These are:  The level of and recent trends in sales revenue.  The level of and recent changes in the cost of goods sold.  The level of and recent trends in selling, general, and administrative expenses.  Any tax payments made in cash.  The level of and recent trends in noncash expenses.
  11. CAPITAL  Capital represents the potential borrower’s general financial position, emphasizing tangible net worth and profitability, which indicates the ability to continuously generate funds over time.  The net worth figure in the business enterprise is the key factor that governs the amount of credit made available to the borrower.
  12. COLLATERAL  In assessing the collateral aspect of a loan request, the loan officer must ask, Does the borrower possess adequate net worth or own enough quality assets to provide adequate support for the loan.  The loan officer is particularly sensitive to such features as the borrower’s assets’ age, condition, and degree of specialization.  Technology plays an important role here as well. If the borrower’s assets are technologically obsolete, they will have limited value as collateral because of the difficulty finding a buyer for those assets should the borrower’s income falter.
  13. CONDITIONS  The loan officer and credit analyst must be aware of recent trends in the borrower’s work or industry and how changing economic conditions might affect the loan.  A loan looks very good on paper, only to have its value eroded by declining sales or income in a recession or by high-interest rates occasioned by inflation.
  14. CONTROL  The last factor in assessing a borrower’s creditworthiness status is control.  This factor centers on such questions as to whether changes in law and regulation could adversely affect the borrower and whether the loan request meets the lender’s and the regulatory authorities’ standards for loan quality.
  15. PROCESS OF CREDIT ANALYSIS Credit analysis covers the area of analyzing the character of the borrowers, capacity to use the loan amount, condition of capital, objectives of taking a loan, planning for uses, probable repayment schedule & so on. Credit proposals are needed to be analyzed by following Process.: 1. Collecting loan information of the applicant, 2. Collecting business information for which loan is sought, 3. Collecting the risk related information, 4. Assembling all credit information together, 5. Analyzing sensitive risky credit information, 6. Analyzing refined & very essential risk information, 7. Making a decision on the basis of loan analysis, 8. Design the appropriate loan structure according to a positive
  16.  (1) Collecting loan information of the applicant: It requires a collection of information from the past and present financial statements of the business provided by the applicant. Analysis of the personal characteristics, that is, whether he is involved in any forbidden activities such as gambling, drinking habit or any other unethical affair’s is also focused on this step.  (2) Collecting business information for which loan is sought:  The bank should know the purpose of the loan, the amount of the loan and whether it is possible to implement the project by that amount. It is essential to collect the information about the sources from which repay the loan. The information of past loan of the borrower should also be collected by the loan officer.
  17. (3) Collecting the primary risk related information:  Assessing the overall political and economic risks.  Identification and give explanations to the positive and negative factors in conducting the business.  Evaluation of the positive sides of cash inflow and its possible stability in the light of the historical demand of the business.  Consideration of the future consequences and need for investment in light of the applied loan proposal and repayment assurance of the loan.  Evaluation of the impact on the balance sheet of the borrowers after using the loan.  Assessing the possibility and the extent to which change is occurred in the risk level previously measured.
  18. (4) Assembling all credit information together:  Collection of detailed descriptions about the proposed loan  Collection of detailed information about the loan applicant  A detailed description of the general financial objectives and plans of the business. (5) Analyzing sensitive risky credit information:  Inspection of the proposed business location,  Collection of detailed information regarding profit earnings from the existing bank-clients and other parties related to the business,  Inspection of the internal working environment of the business,  Analysis of the Information regarding trading (selling/purchasing) and the availability of getting credit opportunity from the suppliers (Trade Credit) and the relationship with the suppliers.
  19. (6) Analyzing refined and very essential risk information: Analysis of the honesty, integrity sincerity in individual and overall sense towards the proposed business on the part of the owners, employees, staffs and laborers of the company.  Analysis of the possible political and economic risk.  Evaluation of the operational possibility in consideration of the proposed loan.  Identification of the sources and uses of future cash inflow and outflow of the proposed loan project.  Assessment of the secondary safety of the collateral and surety. (7) Making a decision on the basis of loan analysis:  Determination of the explicit or implicit risk level of the proposed loan.  If the level of risk is beyond acceptable, then loan proposal should be closed with a negative comment.
  20. 8) Design the appropriate loan structure according to the positive decision:  Determination of the types of loan, duration of loan and amount of interest in light of risks associated with the loan.  Loan analysis process should be here if the terms and conditions for applied loan are not acceptable.  Get approvals from the appropriate loan sanctioning authority.  Sit for discussion with the borrowers about the acceptable conditions of the loan Preparation & Maintenance of necessary documents of the permitted loan.
  21. CREDIT PROCESS  The process of assessing whether or not to lend to a particular entity is known as the credit process.  It involves evaluating the mindset of the potential borrower, underwriting of the risk, the pricing of the instrument and the fit with the lender's portfolio.  It encompasses setting objectives and guidelines based on the lender's credit culture, gathering necessary information of the applicant, analyzing the information include cash flows and financial statements and presenting and documenting information in such a manner so that a credit decision may be made.
  22. YOUR COMMERCIAL BANKING OFFICER WILL REVIEW YOUR BUSINESS LOAN PACKAGE BASED ON CRITERIA KNOWN AS THE "FIVE C'S OF CREDIT"  Character : It involves a review of your personal honesty, integrity, trustworthiness and management skills A banking officer also makes a judgment of character based on your business plan, credit history and the quality of your presentation.  Capitalization : The capital structure of your company is important to Bank of Ann Arbor because it helps determine the level of risk associated your loan request. An analysis of capitalization includes a review of equity, total debt, the value of assets and permanent working capital.  Cash Flow. This is the cash your business has to pay the debt. A cash flow analysis helps us determine if you have the ability to repay the loan.  Collateral: This provides a secondary source of repayment, thereby minimizing the risk for Bank of Ann Arbor. The amount and type of collateral require depends on the type and purpose of the loan.
  23.  Conditions : This refers to outside conditions that may affect the ability of your business to repay the loan. Factors such as general economic conditions or a large concentration of sales to a single customer are evaluated during our review of your loan application.
  24. CREDIT FACILITY  A credit facility is a type of loan made in a business or corporate finance context. It allows the borrowing business to take out money over an extended period of time rather than reapplying for a loan each time it needs money. In effect, a credit facility lets a company take out an umbrella loan for generating capital over an extended period of time.
  25.  Credit Facility is an agreement with bank that enables a person or organization to be taken credit or borrow money when it is needed.  All types of credit facilities may broadly be classified into two groups on the basis of Funding 1. Fund Base Credit 2. Non Fund Base Credit
  26. FUND BASE CREDIT It is the any credit facility which involves direct outflow of Bank’s fund to the borrower. Various types of it are as follows :- (i) Loan: (ii) Cash Credit (iii) Over Draft: (iv) Packing Credit (v) Some other fund based credit facilities
  27. (i) Loan: – It refers to credit facility that is repayable in a definite period. (e.g. Term Loan , Demand Loan) (ii) Cash Credit: – It refers to credit facility in which borrower can borrow any time with in the agreed limit for certain period for their working capital need. It secured by way of Hypothecation of Stock(goods) and Debtors and all other current Assets of the business generated during the course of business. Cash credit can also be secured by way of mortgage of immovable properties (as collateral security) (iii) Over Draft: – An overdraft allows a current account holder to withdraw in excess of their credit balance up to a sanctioned limit. It secured by way of Mortgage of immovable properties and pledge of F.D., Bonds, Shares securities , Gold & silver and any physical asset and Hypothecation of Stock and Debtors and all other current Assets of the business generated during the course of business.
  28. (iv) Packing Credit: – It is a credit facility which sanctioned to an exporter in the Pre-Shipment stage. Such credit facilitates the exporter to purchase raw materials at competitive rates and manufacture or produce goods according to the requirement of the buyer and organize to have it packed for onward export. It secured by way of Hypothecation of Stock of goods and Debtors and all other current Assets of the business generated during the course of business. (v) Some other fund based credit facilities are Bill Discounted , Bill Purchased , Advance against hypothecation of Vehicles ( Transport Loan) , House Building Loan , Consumer Loan , Agriculture Loan -Farming -Non Farming , Consortium Loan , Lease Financing , Hire Purchase , Import Financing – Loan Against Imported Merchandise (LIM) – Payment Against Document (PAD) .
  29. (2) NON FUND BASE CREDIT  Non Fund Base credit is a credit facility where there is no involvement of direct outflow of Bank’s fund on account of borrower rather the outflow of Bank’s fund on account of Third party on behalf of borrower. Types of it are as follow:  (i) Letter Of Credit:  (ii) Bank Guarantee:  (iv) Suppliers Credit  (iii) Buyer Credit:
  30.  (i) Letter Of Credit: – When a buyer or importer wants to purchase goods from an unknown seller or exporter. He can take assistance of bank in such buying or importing transactions. Bank issues a LETTER OF CREDIT in addressed to the supplier or exporter after it, supplier or exporter will supply the goods to such unknown buyer or importer. A signed Invoice with Letter Of Credit is presented to the bank of buyer/importer and the payment is made to the seller/exporter DIRECTLY by the bank.  (ii) Bank Guarantee: – It is a guarantee issued by a banker that, in case of an occurrence or non-occurrence of a particular event, the bank guarantees to fulfilled the loss of money as stipulated in the contact. It may of various types like Financial Guarantees, Performance Guarantees and Deferred Payment Guarantee.
  31.  (iii) Buyer Credit: – It is the credit availed by an Importer from overseas lenders (i.e. Banks & Financial Institutions) for payment against his imports. The overseas bank usually lends the Importer based on letter of credit, bank guarantee issued by the importer bank.  (iv) Suppliers Credit: – Under such credit facility an exporter extends credit to a foreign importer to finance his purchase. Usually the importer pays a portion of the contact value in cash and issues a Promissory note as evidence of his obligation to pay the balance over a period of time. The exporter thus accepts a deferred payment from the importer and may be able to obtain cash payment by discounting or selling such promissory note created with his bank.
  32. (iii) Buyer Credit: – It is the credit availed by an Importer from overseas lenders (i.e. Banks & Financial Institutions) for payment against his imports. The overseas bank usually lends the Importer based on letter of credit, bank guarantee issued by the importer bank. (iv) Suppliers Credit: – Under such credit facility an exporter extends credit to a foreign importer to finance his purchase. Usually the importer pays a portion of the contact value in cash and issues a Promissory note as evidence of his obligation to pay the balance over a period of time. The exporter thus accepts a deferred payment from the importer and may be able to obtain cash payment by discounting or selling such promissory note created with his bank.
  33. CREDIT PROCESS  Process of assessing whether or not to lend to a particular entity is known as the credit process.  It involves evaluating the mindset of the potential borrower, underwriting of the risk, the pricing of the instrument and the fit with the encompasses lender's setting portfolio.  objectives It and guidelines based on the lender's credit culture, gathering necessary information of the applicant, analyzing information including cash flows and financial statements and presenting and documenting information in such manner so that a credit decision may be made
  34.  Your commercial banking officer will review your business loan package based on criteria known as the "Five C's of Credit.“  Character: It involves a review of your personal honesty, integrity, trustworthiness and management skills. A banking officer also makes judgment of character based on your business plan, credit history and the quality of your presentation.  Capitalization: The capital structure of your company is important to Bank of Ann Arbor because it helps determine the level of risk associated with your loan request. An capitalization includes analysis a review of of equity, total debt, the value of assets and permanent working capital.
  35.  Cash Flow: This is the cash your business has to pay the debt. A cash flow analysis helps us determine if you have the ability to repay the loan.  Collateral: This provides a secondary source of repayment, thereby minimizing the risk for Bank of Ann Arbor. The amount and type of collateral required depends on the type and purpose of the loan.  Conditions: This refers to outside conditions that may affect the ability of your business Factors such conditions or as to repay the loan. general economic a large concentration of sales to a single customer are evaluated during our application. review of your loan
  36.  To put things into perspective, let’s consider the example of one Sanjay Sallaya, who is credited to being one of the biggest defaulters in recent history, along with being one of the biggest businessmen in the world. He owns multiple companies, some sports franchises, and few bungalows in all major cities.  Who is the client? Ex. Sanjay Sallaya, a reputed industrialist, owning majority share in XYZ ltd., and some others.  Quantum of credit they need and when? Ex. Starting a new airline division, which would cater to the high-end segment of society. Credit demand is $25 mil, needed over the next 6 months.  The specific purpose the credit will be employed for? Ex. Acquiring new aircraft and capital for day to day operations like fuel costs, staff emoluments, airport parking charges, etc.
  37.  Ways and means to service the debt obligations (which include application and processing fees, interest, principal, and other statutory charges) Ex. Revenue generated from flight operations, freight delivery, and freight delivery.  What protection (collateral) can the client provide in the event of default? Ex. Multiple bungalows in prime locations are offered as collateral, along with the personal guarantee of Sanjay Sallaya, one of the most reputed businessmen in the world.  What are the key areas of the business, and how are they operated and monitored? Ex. Detailed reports would be provided on all key metrics related to the business.  Answers to these questions help the credit analyst to understand the broad risks associated with the proposed loan. These questions provide the basic information about the client and help the analyst to get deeper into the business and understand any intrinsic risks associated with it.
  38. CREDIT ANALYST – OBTAINING QUANTITATIVE DATA FROM THE CLIENTS  Other than the above questions, the analyst also needs to obtain quantitative data specific to the client:  Borrower’s history – A brief background of the company, its capital structure, its founders, stages of development, plans for growth, list of customers, suppliers, service providers, management structure, products, and all such information are exhaustively collected to form a fair and just opinion about the company.  Market Data – The specific industry trends, size of the market, market share, assessment of competition, competitive advantages , marketing, public relations, and relevant future trends are studied to create a holistic expectation of future movements and needs.
  39.  Financial Information – Financial statements (Best case/ expected case/ worst case), Tax returns, company valuations and appraisal of assets, current balance sheet, credit references, and all similar documents which can provide an insight into the financial health of the company are scrutinized in great detail.  Schedules and exhibits – Certain key documents, such as agreements with vendors and customers, insurance policies, lease agreements, picture of the products or sites, should be appended as exhibits to the loan proposal as proofs of the specifics as judged by the above-mentioned indicators.
  40. DOCUMENTATION  Credit administration and documentation are two of the critical components in managing credit and supporting the credit process. Following proper credit administrative and documentation process allow credit analysts to monitor accounts and identify ways to reduce default risk.  Credit Document means Agreement, the Notes, if any of this any, the Collateral Documents, any documents or certificates executed by Company in favour of Issuing Bank relating Letters of Credit, documents, instruments and ог all to other agreements executed and delivered by a Credit Party for the benefit of any Agent, Issuing Bank or any Lender in connection herewith.
  41. LOAN PRICING  The process of determining the interest rate for granting a loan, typically as an interest spread (margin) over the base rate, conducted by the book runners in loan syndication  Loan pricing is the process of determining the interest rate for granting a loan, typically as an interest spread (margin) over the base rate, conducted by the book runners. The pricing of syndicated loans requires arrangers to evaluate the credit risk inherent in the loans and to gauge lender appetite for that risk.
  42.  For market-based loan pricing, banks incorporate credit default spreads as a measure of borrowers’ credit risks. It is standard procedure in loan pricing to benchmark a loan against recent comparable transactions (“comps”) and select the base rate on which the financing costs are pegged. A comparable deal is one with a borrower in the same industry, country and of the same size with the same credit rating, for which a certain market rate of return is required.
  43.  A bank’s credit rating has a direct impact on its cost of funding and, thus, the pricing of its loans. Banks with a high credit rating generally have access to lower cost funds in debt markets and low counterparty margins in swap and foreign exchange markets. The lower cost of funds can be passed on to borrowers in the form of lower loan pricing.
  44. LOAN PRICING OBJECTIVES  Explain debt as a funding source, its pros, and its cons  Identify loan types and their relative degree of profitability  Define risk-adjusted return, and risk-adjusted return on capital  Calculate and interpret an example risk rating  Recommend pricing structures based on risk rating and loan type
  45.  It is a binding short-term financial instrument that mandates one party to pay a specific sum of money to another at a predetermined date or on-demand. Also known as a bill of exchange, it essentially denotes, in writing, that one person (debtor) owes money to another (creditor).  Businesses predominantly use bill finance during international trade, since the degree of uncertainty concerning the payment is considerable in that regard. However, there’s no set law as such, and companies can use a bill of exchange for intra-border trade as well.  Usually, bill finance does not involve any interest payment. But, a creditor might charge a penalty fee or interest if it does not receive the due amount by a predetermined date. In that case, the issuer must mention these details in such a document.
  46. BILL FINANCE WORK The practice of bill of exchange issuance involves three parties primarily –  Drawee – This is the person or entity on which a bill of exchange is issued, also referred to as the debtor. A drawee needs to accept the bill, which legally binds it to pay a specific sum.  Drawer – This person issues a bill of exchange, usually before undertaking credit sales. A drawee is obliged to pay the due amount to a drawer. This entity must sign a bill of exchange during issuance.  Payee – The payment ultimately goes to a payee. In most cases, a drawer, and payee are the same entity. However, in some cases, a drawer can transfer bill finance to a third-party, in which case that person becomes the payee.
  47. Types Explanation Demand bill Also known as sight draft, this type of bill finance comes with an on-demand payment stipulation. Usance bill Bills of exchange that feature the clause of payment by a specific date and time. These are also known as time draft. Documentary bill A type of bill of exchange that requires the presentation of supporting documents attesting to the legitimacy of a transaction(s). Clean bill It involves no supporting documents, and therefore, the interest that one needs to pay, if any, is much higher. Inland bill This is issued for transactions within national borders. Foreign bill As opposed to the inland bill, a foreign bill of exchange is issued to debtors beyond national borders. Trade draft Bill finance issued by an individual is called a trade draft. The following table discusses the various types of bill finance that are mostly used.
  48. Bank draft When a bank issues a bill of exchange, it’s called a bank draft. In this case, a bank enforces bill payment as per terms. Accommodation bill It refers to the unconditional bill finances.
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