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Rabl Presentation - NATO, Antalya, Turkey

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Rabl Presentation - NATO, Antalya, Turkey

  1. 1. DR. VERONIKA RABL Principal, Vision & Results Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee Washington, DC NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security October 4-11, 2015 Antalya, Turkey
  2. 2. DR. VERONIKA RABL Principal, Vision & Results Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee Washington, DC NATO Advanced Study Institute on Energy Security October 4-11, 2015 Antalya, Turkey
  3. 3. 3 http://www.ieeeusa.org/POLICY/positions/IEEE-USA-NEPR-2014.pdf
  4. 4. 4 Summary  Restructured power sector  most utilities are now distribution companies (LSE)  generation & transmission spun off  the term “utility” lost its meaning  Distributed decision-making  Continuing substitution of natural gas & renewables for coal generation – profound changes in grid operational requirements  Fragmented regulatory structure - an obstacle to progress
  5. 5. 5 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  6. 6. 6 U.S. Economy in Perspective Source: Perry, M., “Putting the ridiculously large $18 trillion US economy into perspective by comparing state GDPs to entire countries,” American Enterprise Institute, June 2015
  7. 7. 7 Separated by Common Language?  billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe (?)  1012 = trillion  Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu  MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu  MMBtu is 1 million Btu  Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!  Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV  Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as 18% for H2 fuel cell)
  8. 8. 8 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  9. 9. 9 2014 U.S. Energy Flow Chart Source: LLNL; https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/
  10. 10. 10 All Eyes on Electricity Industry  Electricity use accounts for about a third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
  11. 11. 11 Regulatory Pressures  Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and existing plants  Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash disposal)?  Cross-State Air Pollution Rule  Performance standards for GHG emissions Virtually every coal plant must RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER
  12. 12. 12 Natural Gas Replacing Coal  Good News, Bad News  Less expensive than just about any other form of generation  EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between now and 2035  May slow momentum or displace renewables  May substitute for storage  Not coordinated with electricity markets  Competition with residential heating
  13. 13. 13 Coal down, Gas up → CO2 down Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review September 2013 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 MillionMetricTonsofCO2 PETROLEUM COAL NATURAL GAS
  14. 14. 14 Some Bad News Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531
  15. 15. 15 From Net Imports to Net Exports Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA, July 8, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21972
  16. 16. 16 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  17. 17. 17 U.S. Generating Capacity
  18. 18. 18 Greening the Power Supply  IEEE-USA RECOMMENDATIONS  Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric Generation  Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power Plants  Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation
  19. 19. 19 NET GENERATION/RENEWABLES Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012
  20. 20. 20 Renewables Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review, September 2015 About 13% of electricity was generated from renewables in 2014 (Billion kilowatthours) (Quadrillion Btu)
  21. 21. 21 68 GW of Installed Wind Capacity Source: “US Wind Industry Second Quarter 2015 Market Report,” AWEA, July 2015; http://www.awea.org/2q2015
  22. 22. 22 The Future of Tax Credits? Source: PTC Fact Sheet, AWEA; retrieved Oct. 2015 from http://www.awea.org/Advocacy/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=797 The Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) expired at the end of 2014
  23. 23. 23 29 states and DC have RPS policies 8 more have non-binding goals Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/ www.dsireusa.org / June 2015 WA: 15% x 2020* OR: 25%x 2025* (large utilities) CA: 33% x 2020 MT: 15% x 2015 NV: 25% x 2025* UT: 20% x 2025*† AZ: 15% x 2025* ND:10% x 2015 NM: 20%x 2020 (IOUs) HI: 100% x 2045 CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) *† OK: 15% x 2015 MN:26.5% x 2025 (IOUs) 31.5% x 2020 (Xcel) MI: 10% x 2015*†WI: 10% 2015 MO:15% x 2021 IA: 105 MW IN: 10% x 2025† IL: 25% x 2026 OH: 12.5% x 2026 NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) VA: 15% x 2025† KS: 20% x 2020 ME: 40% x 2017 29 States + Washington DC + 3 territories have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (8 states and 1 territories have renewable portfolio goals) Renewable portfolio standard Renewableportfolio goal Includes non-renewable alternative resources* Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables † U.S. Territories DC TX: 5,880 MW x 2015* SD:10% x 2015 SC:2% 2021 NMI: 20% x 2016 PR: 20% x 2035 Guam:25% x 2035 USVI: 30% x 2025 NH: 24.8 x 2025 VT: 75% x 2032 MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 6.03% x 2016 (existing resources) RI: 14.5% x 2019 CT: 27% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015 PA: 18% x 2021† NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020 + 4.1% solar by 2027 DE: 25% x 2026* MD: 20% x 2022 DC: 20% x 2020
  24. 24. 24 44 States + DC have MANDATORY net metering requirements Source: DSIRE; http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/ State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities No uniform or statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering www.dsireusa.org / March 2015 * State policy applies to certain utility types only (e.g., investor-owned utilities) Note:Numbers indicate individual system capacity limitin kW. Percentages refer to customer demand.Some limits vary by customer type, technology and/or application.Other limits mightalso apply.This map generally does notaddress statutory changes until administrative rules have been adopted to implementsuch changes. WA: 100 OR: 25/2,000* CA: 1,000* MT: 50* NV: 1,000* UT: 25/2,000* AZ: 125% ND: 100* NM: 80,000* WY: 25* HI: 100* CO: 120%* OK: 100* MN: 40 AR: 25/300 MI: 150* WI: 20* MO: 100 IA: 500* IN: 1,000* IL: 40* FL: 2,000* KY: 30* OH: no limit* GA: 10/100 NC: 1,000* VA: 20/1,000* NE: 25 KS: 15/100/150* ME: 660* AK: 25* State: kW limit residential/ kW limit nonresidential U.S. Territories: AmericanSamoa: 30 Guam: 25/100 PuertoRico: 25/1,000/5,000 Virgin Islands: 20/100/500 LA: 25/300 44 States + DC, AS, Guam, USVI, & PR have mandatory net metering rules DC WV: 25/50/500/2,000 VT: 20/250/2,200 NH: 1,000 MA: 60/1,000/2,000/10,000* RI: 5,000* CT: 2,000/3,000* NY: 10/25/500/1,000/2,000* PA: 50/3,000/5,000* NJ: no limit* DE:25/100/2,000* MD: 2,000 DC: 1,000/5,000/120% SC: 20/1,000*
  25. 25. 25 State Incentives Accounted for Over ½ of Capacity Added 2010-2013 Source: State RPS Policies and Solar Energy Impacts, Experiences, Challenges, and Lessons Learned , LBL Nov. 2013; http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/seia-webinar-nov-2013.pdf
  26. 26. 26 Aging Power Generation Fleet About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity was 30 years or older at the end of 2010
  27. 27. 27 Decline in Coal Generation Source: EIA and http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/eia-forecast-fossil-fuels-remain-dominant-through-2040/ Natural gas Renewables Nuclear COAL Petroleum
  28. 28. 28 Coal Retirements Continue in 2015 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, March 2015 Note: Other renewables include hydroelectric, biomass/wood, and geothermal
  29. 29. 29 CCGT Competes with Baseload Coal Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
  30. 30. 30 How Long Before Prices Go Up? Source: FERC Market Snapshot, August 2015; http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview/ngas-ovr-lng-wld-pr-est.pdf Units: $/ MMBtu
  31. 31. 31 Gas shortage at home?! Source: “Today in Energy,” EIA January 12, 2015; http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19531
  32. 32. 32 Nuclear  Traditionally the lowest cost electricity  Clean generation option BUT  Post-Fukushima public acceptance issues  High initial cost a significant barrier  Aging fleet; last reactor started up in 1996
  33. 33. 33 Nuclear Fleet Aging Too http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21  The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is about 32 years  The oldest entered commercial service in 1969  The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996  Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site addition planned to begin operation in 2013 2015  U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
  34. 34. 34 Two Plants Licensed Early 2012 another in 2015 …More to Come? Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, July 2015; http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html
  35. 35. 35 Major Recommendations/ Nuclear  Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management program that would close the fuel cycle and develop a disposal facility as mandated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982  Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce the volume and lifetime of wastes
  36. 36. 36 Where will electricity come from?  Coal in decline for the foreseeable future  High risk (carbon regulation)  CCUS?  Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions  Renewables may grow even in absence of federal carbon policy  And the rest? Nuclear?
  37. 37. 37 Maybe it doesn’t matter?! Alarming headlines:  All that waste of energy! The lack of basic understanding of energy needs, supplies, and processes is astounding! … but it influences our energy policy and misleads energy users.
  38. 38. 38 Wasted Energy: The numbers will astound you Source: “Wasted energy: The numbers will astound you,” Fierce Energy, Oct 2, 2015; http://www.fierceenergy.com  A whopping 54 percent of the total energy used to generate electricity in the United Kingdom is wasted before it even gets to homes and businesses, according to a report released on end of September 2015.  The total economic value of the energy wasted by Britain's electric grid is estimated to be about $14 billion (£9.5) billion (109 ?) annually.  To put this in perspective, this is equivalent to more than half the average home's annual electricity bill in the UK. The environmental impact of the prodigious energy waste is arguably even more mind numbingly huge. The annual carbon emissions attributed to the energy wasted in the UK is equivalent to that created by every car in the UK.  "If half of current centralized thermal generation was instead directly connected at the distribution level near demand, the avoided transmission losses would save energy users £135 million annually," said the report.
  39. 39. 39 What’s Wrong with this Picture? Source: “Less Waste, More Growth,” September 2015; http://www.theade.co.uk/less-waste-more-growth--boosting-energy-productivity-_3479.html
  40. 40. 40 What’s Wrong with this Picture? Source: Paraphrased from comment by Tom Schneider, member of IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee; http://www.fierceenergy.com  Electricity is used to provide light and mechanical work as well as computation, communications and control. These services cannot be provided by water at ~80 deg F.  With a heat pump even a generator with “losses” of 2/3 delivers more useful "heat" than combined heat and power. Very little electricity is used to generate heat through resistors.  The “lost” energy is not the rejected heat at ambient to water and air but the high temperature which might be used in a topping cycle. Today’s natural gas combined cycle systems are close to the practical limits of efficiency given our current materials and the available flame temperature. LEARN THE LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS AND SAVE ENERGY!
  41. 41. 41 CHP Efficiency What’s Wrong with this Picture? Source: EPA; retrieved Oct. 2, 2015 from http://www3.epa.gov/chp/basic/methods.html (now with some explanations)
  42. 42. 42 Biomass  LCA is difficult because of the importance of temporal dimension and indirect impacts, e.g., arable land and water.  EPA still working on the subject, but some states provide incentives WE HAVE THE ETHANOL EROI PROBLEM NOW WE ARE ABOUT TO TOP IT!
  43. 43. 43 Europe’s climate policies… Source: Washington Post, June 15, 2015 …led to more trees being cut down in the U.S. “Every morning, logging crews go to work in densely wooded bottomlands along the Roanoke River, clearing out every tree and shrub down to the bare dirt. Each day, dozens of trucks haul freshly cut oaks and poplars to a nearby factory where the wood is converted into small pellets, to be used as fuel in European power plants. Soaring demand for woody fuel has led to the construction of more than two dozen pellet factories in the Southeast in the past decade, along with special port facilities in Virginia and Georgia where mountains of pellets are loaded onto Europe-bound freighters. European officials promote the trade as part of the fight against climate change. Burning “biomass” from trees instead of coal, they say, means fewer greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”. “can increase carbon emissions relative to coal for many decades — anywhere from 35 to 100 years”
  44. 44. 44 Wood Pellets – Big Business Source: Wood Pellets Are Big Business (And For Some, a Big Worry”’ Forbes, February 2015
  45. 45. 45 Where will electricity come from?  Coal in decline for the foreseeable future  High risk (carbon regulation)  CCUS?  Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions  Renewables may grow even in absence of federal carbon policy  And the rest? Nuclear?
  46. 46. 46 Electricity – Engine of Progress Developed from EIA data Electrification • Electricity use is increasing in both absolute and RELATIVE terms Increasing energy productivity • It takes less-and-less energy to fuel the economy0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 %primaryenergyusedforelectricity ThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollars Energy Use/$GDP Electricity Fraction
  47. 47. 47 Energy – GDP Relationship Source: Columbia University
  48. 48. 48 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  49. 49. U.S. Electric Grid 49
  50. 50. 50 Network of  10,000 power plants (~1,000 GW, ~4,000 billion kWh)  150,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission lines  Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines  More than 12,000 substations  ~150 million customers U.S. Electric Grid
  51. 51. 51 Complex and Splintered Market and Regulatory Regime Competition Local Regulation Generation Transmission Distribution Federal Regulation SCSC MOMO MEME TOTO SOSO SC - Security Coordinator MO - Market Operator SO - System Operator TO - Transmission Owner SC - Security Coordinator MO - Market Operator SO - System Operator TO - Transmission Owner Retail sales Competition? Competition Local Regulation Generation Transmission Distribution Federal Regulation RC MO BA TO TOP SC - Security Coordinator MO - Market Operator SO - System Operator TO - Transmission Owner RC- MO - Market Operator TOP - - Transmission Owner Retail sales Competition? RC– Reliability Coordinator MO – Market Operator TOP – TransmissionOperator BA – Balancing Authority TO – TransmissionOwner  Many players  Not necessarily conducive to cooperation or optimal system design  Market efficiency vs. system efficiency
  52. 52. 52 NERC Regions & Balancing Authorities Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation
  53. 53. 53 Wholesale Markets & Operations Federal jurisdiction Source: NERC (RTO – Regional Transmission Organization, ISO – Independent System Operator)
  54. 54. 54 Markets vs. Electricity  Is electricity a commodity?  Public goods elements?  Market efficiency or system efficiency?  Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit laws topology  RTO market rules are not uniform
  55. 55. 55 State Jurisdiction  Retail rates for regulated utilities  Construction of transmission, new generation  Implementation of environmental regulations The regulatory structure has built-in conflicts
  56. 56. 56 RTOs Span Several States Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
  57. 57. 57 Physical Infrastructure Transmission Constraints Source: National Electric Congestion Study 2009
  58. 58. 58 Electric Power Markets Source: FERC, http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-electric/overview.asp
  59. 59. 59 Natural Gas Markets Source: FERC, http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview.asp
  60. 60. 60 Incentives for renewables  Renewable portfolio standards  Net metering  Tax incentives  Increasing wind (transmission) and solar (distribution)  Some “interesting” dilemmas for organized markets – priority, negative bids
  61. 61. 61 Operational Impacts Source: Renewable Energy Futures, Vol. 4, NREL Steeper ramps and lower turndown levels require increased flexibility for systems with large amounts of wind
  62. 62. Source: CAISO http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2020_Flexible_Capacity_Needs.pdf Duck Curve
  63. 63. 63 Renewables in Germany
  64. 64. 64 U.S. DOE asked IEEE for insights on a specific set of priority issues IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW  Effects of renewable intermittency on the grid and the potential role of storage  Business case issues related to microgrids and distributed generation (DG), including rooftop photovoltaics  The technical implications for the grid of electric vehicle (EV) integration  The implications and importance of aging infrastructure and the options for addressing these challenges, including asset management  Recommendations for metrics for addressing Smart Grid issues, especially to help policy makers determine the importance and necessity of protocols  Skilled workforce issues  Report cards on the condition and performance of the electric grid IEEE QER Report: http://www.ieee-pes.org/qer
  65. 65. 65 Renewable Intermittency & Storage Grid Level:  Uncertainty of renewable sources can be tolerated at penetration levels around 30% (system studies and real world experience)  Traditional power system planning and operations need to be updated, incl. cooperation among balancing areas  Energy storage, while a useful and flexible system tool, is not essential as other often more cost-effective options are available, such as fast responding generation and demand response IEEE JOINT TASK FORCE ON QUADRENNIAL ENERGY REVIEW
  66. 66. 66 Renewable Intermittency & Storage  Distribution: High penetration of renewable DG creates challenges; solutions include  Low-cost distributed storage systems  Advanced power electronics technologies  Real-time monitoring, control and automation. Before DG After DG Distribution Voltage Profile
  67. 67. Critical Needs  Standards  Interconnection (based on static and dynamic conditions)  Big data handling, stream computing and analytics  Software/Models  Tools/process models for integrated systems analysis and operation  Policy  Address issues associated with devices that operate across institutional, regulatory, and information architectural boundaries 67
  68. 68. 68 Microgrids  Often adversarial relationships
  69. 69. 69 Optimized Hybrid Microgrids  Power grid and micgrogrids must work synergistically to fulfill all the needs, e.g. serving all the load all the time  Policy should support value creation and not unduly favor either incumbent utilities or non-utility MG sponsors  Assessing costs should include efficiency, reliability, safety, optimizing life-cycle costs, and resilience for the grid  Costs and benefits apportioned in a multi- stakeholder microgrid business case  Regulatory policy to reward costs incurred in planning, operational changes, and the optimal integration of assets  New tools and Standards, e.g. IEEE 1547 Series
  70. 70. 70 Old-Fashioned Planning FIXED
  71. 71. 71 Major Infrastructure Issues  Increasingly complex and competitive bulk power market is adding stress to the grid  Grid congestion and higher transmission losses  Higher rates for electricity  Splintered physical and market jurisdictions impede  effective coordination between large-scale and distribution- scale technology options  rational system planning
  72. 72. 72 Building a Stronger and Smarter Electrical Energy Infrastructure  Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid  Expanding the Transmission System  Accommodating New Types of Generation and New Loads  Variable generation  Local generation, PV; microgrids  Plug-in vehicles
  73. 73. 73 Smart Grid Promise Source: Adapted from Massoud Amin, Smart Grid definition, 01-27-1998 Highly Instrumented Advanced Sensors and Computing Interconnected by a Communication Fabric that Reaches Every Node POWER OF INFORMATION  REDUCING COSTS OF ELECTRICITY OR REDUCING RATE OF INCREASE IN COSTS  SUBSTITUTING INTELLIGENCE FOR PHYSICAL ASSETS  ENGAGING CONSUMERS  ENHANCING EFFICIENCY  ENSURING RELIABILITY AND REDUCING OUTAGES AND OUTAGE DURATION  ENABLING RENEWABLES  ENABLING ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION
  74. 74. 74 Reduce outage costs by $50 billion/yr
  75. 75. 75 Creating New Capabilities  Must build the enabling infrastructure  Funding for open standard communications protocols  Removing institutional barriers  Data → Knowledge → Whole new spectrum of applications  From better grid management…  …to new services for consumers
  76. 76. 76 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  77. 77. 77 Transportation  National Security Risk  Vital economic sector  Almost entirely oil  About 70% of entire U.S. petroleum use  Major Source of Pollutants  Urban smog  About 30% of U.S. GHG emissions  Cannot capture dispersed emissions
  78. 78. 78 Transforming Transportation by Diversifying Energy Sources  Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid Electric Vehicles  Developing and Using Alternative Transportation Fuels
  79. 79. 79 Electric and Hybrid Transportation • Heated discussions concerning the impact of these vehicles on energy efficiency and environment, including GHG emissions • Questions are being raised about the costs of various options relative to their benefits • Impact of the new vehicles on T&D and electric load growth
  80. 80. 80 Where the Energy Goes Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012) GASOLINE ENGINE EFFICIENCY Tank -to- Wheels 14 –16%
  81. 81. 81 Well-to-Wheels
  82. 82. 82 Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007  Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel  Well to refinery = .95  Refining to gasoline = .85  Gasoline delivery = .97  Tank to wheels = .14 – .16  Efficiency of 11% to 13%
  83. 83. 83 Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007  Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 11% to 13%  Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Delivered to power plant = .95  Power generation = .35 - .45  Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93  Plug to battery = .80 - .90  Battery to wheels = .80 - .90  Efficiency of 19% to 32%
  84. 84. 84 Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007  Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 11% to 13%  Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 19% to 32%
  85. 85. 85 Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels Source: T. R. Schneider, “Transportation Efficiency through Electric Drive and the Power Grid", IEEE-USA Capitol Hill Forum, July 2007  Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 11% to 13%  Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 19% to 32%  Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 27% to 42%
  86. 86. 86 Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels  Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 11% to 13%  Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 19% to 32%  Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel  Efficiency of 27% to 42% Plug into a coal plant to reduce emissions?!
  87. 87. 88 Vehicles Responsible for Most Precursors of Smog Source: Our Nation's Air - Status and Trends through 2010, EPA-454/R-12-001, February 2012 (http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2011/) DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL TOTAL EMISSIONS ESTIMATES BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR SPECIFIC POLLUTANTS, 2010
  88. 88. 89 Judge by the Future, Not the Past Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 20212, Early Release U.S. generation mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas
  89. 89. 90 Integrating PEVs Source: “Survey Says: Over 40% of American Drivers Could Use an Electric Vehicle,” Union of Concerned Scientists, December 2013 So why plug in? Electric vehicles are more fun to drive and emit less pollution About 330,000 PEVs on the road  Generation and transmission systems can handle millions of plug-in electric vehicles  Good understanding of technical issues on the distribution system  Potential overloads of distribution transformers and circuits  Changes in equipment cooling patterns  Inability to accommodate high- power charging in older neighborhoods with legacy distribution infrastructure
  90. 90. 91 Does everyone need a fast charger? Source: Bob Bruninga, IEEE Transportation Committee, http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html How long does it take to charge the battery for 32 miles? $300 cord comes with all EVs and outlets exist Level-1 in 8 hours $2,000 installed Level-2 in 2 hours Source:BobBruninga,IEEE TransportationCommittee,http://aprs.org/payin-to-plugin.html BUT Over 40% of cars drive less than 30 miles/day An average PEV • needs only 5 - 10 kWh/day • can charge from a standard electric outlet in 4 - 7 hours DEMAND MANAGEMENT an effective complement to other distribution system measures
  91. 91. 92 Achilles’ Heel? Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884 COST
  92. 92. 93 U.S. DOE EV Everywhere Grand Challenge Source: “EV Everywhere Grand Challenge: DOE's 10-Year Vision for Plug-in Electric Vehicles”; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/ev- everywhere-grand-challenge-does-10-year-vision-plug-electric-vehicles GOAL: PRODUCE PLUG- IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES THAT ARE AS AFFORDABLE BY 2022 AS A 2012 GASOLINE- POWERED VEHICLE
  93. 93. 94 U.S. DOE EV Everywhere Grand Challenge Source: Vehicle Technologies Office: Batteries; http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries  BATTERY GOALS:  Reduce the production cost of an electric vehicle battery to a quarter of its current cost  Halve the size of an electric vehicle battery  Halve the weight of an electric vehicle battery  Achieving these goals would result in:  Lowering battery cost from $500/kWh to $125/kWh  Increasing density from 100 Wh/kg to 250 Wh/kg, 200 Wh/l to 400 Wh/l, and 400 W/kg to 2000 W/kg
  94. 94. 95 THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING… 95
  95. 95. 96 Topics  U.S. energy sector - drivers of change  Electric generation  LCA exercise  Electricity grid  Wholesale markets  Integrating renewables  Smart Grid  End-use – electric transportation  LCA exercise
  96. 96. 97 Energy Situation  ENERGY is fundamental for assuring  Economic prosperity  National security  Environmental protection  ELECTRICITY will continue playing a key role in addressing the challenges  Responding to environmental pressures  Ability to accommodate rapid changes in technology and uncertainties in supplies
  97. 97. 98 Need to take Action NOW With each passing year  Global pressures will continue destabilizing energy markets and prices  Threat to the economy and national security is growing  Global warming impacts  We must invest in technology  Become better energy stewards  Reduce impacts on the environment Electricity is critical in reaching these goals
  98. 98. 99 Recommendations BUILD FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY INTO ALL ELEMENTS OF OUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

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