1. The role of
biomass in
climate change
mitigation
Assessing the long-term
dynamics of bioenergy and
biochemicals in the land
and energy systems
Vassilis Daioglou
May 26th 2016

2. Introduction
Research questions
Method
Thesis outline
Sythesis and outcomes
Reccomendations
2
Contents

3. Energy and climate change
 Anthropogenic climate change is primarily driven by emissions from the energy
and land-use systems
3
Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
(IPCC,2014)

4. Climate change mitigation
 Current trends: global mean temperatures increase by at least 3°C
by 2100
 Paris agreement adopted at the 2015 United Nations Climate
Change Conference aims to limit...
“...global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-
industrial levels and to persue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5°C”
Strategies
 Changing behaviours and attitudes
– Consumption, diets
– Preservation of ecosystem services
 Decarbonise the energy system
– Increase efficiency
– Solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, etc.
4
Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

5. Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
5
(Chum et al., 2011)

6. Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
6
(Chum et al., 2011)

7. Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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(Chum et al., 2011)

8. 1. What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy
crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
2. What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a
dynamic energy system model?
3. What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and
biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system
into account?
4. What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate
change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-system in an
integrated manner?
8
Research Questions
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

9. The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE)
 Describes interactions within and between the human and earth systems
– Agricultural economy, energy supply & demand
– Land cover and land use, emissions, atmospheric composition and climate
Model Adaptations
 Supply - Residues
 Demand - Non-energy (chemicals)
Scenario Analysis
 Storylines which allow for a broad set of potential long term and global outcomes
 Explore uncertainties and highlight the requirements, ranges, sensitivities, conflicts
and synergies of biomass strategies
9
Method
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

10. Chapter 1: Introduction, problem definition, research questions and outline fo the
IMAGE model
Chapter 2: Cost-supply curves of agricultural and forestry residues
Chapter 3: Emission-supply curves of advanced biofuels
Chapter 4: Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy (chemicals) sector
Chapter 5: Competing uses of biomass and implications for CO2 mitigation potential
Chapter 6: Comparison of two IAM model concerning biomass supply, demand and
climate change mitigation strategies
Chapter 7: Synthesis of insights from previous chapters in order to answer the research
questions
10
Thesis outline
SupplyDemandIntegration
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

11. Synthesis - outline
Investigate role of biomass in
baseline and mitigation scenarios
(O’Neilletal.,2014)
Scenarios
• SSP1: Optimistic world (low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
• SSP2: Middle of the road
• SSP3: Pessimistic world (high challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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12. Theoretical Potential:
Driven by increased demand of
agriculture & forestry products
Ecological Potential:
Follows similar trend, but less
pronounced
Available Potential:
Opposite trend, very small
differences
Explanation: competing uses grow significantly from SSP1 to SSP3. Different drivers
across scenarios cancel eachother out.
RQ1: Supply
Residues
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and
energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially
explicit manner?
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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13. SSP1: Lots of natural lands are protected
High abandonement of productive lands
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and
energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially
explicit manner?
RQ1: Supply
Energy crops
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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14. SSP3: Expansion of land for food
Low protection of natural lands
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and
energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially
explicit manner?
RQ1: Supply
Energy crops
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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15. What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and
energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially
explicit manner?
Residue supply-curves consistent
Availability of high quality lands in
SSP1 leads to extremely high and
low cost availability of biomass
RQ1: Supply
Curves
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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2100

16. Total global gross non-energy demand
No-biomass With Biomass
RQ2: Demand
Chemicals
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a
dynamic energy system model?
Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood
and modelled in long-term models
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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17. Total global gross non-energy demand
No-biomass With Biomass
RQ2: Demand
Chemicals
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a
dynamic energy system model?
Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood
and modelled in long-term models
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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18. RQ2: Demand
System
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a
dynamic energy system model?
SSP2
Base Mitig
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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19. RQ2: Demand
System
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a
dynamic energy system model?
Baseline Scenarios
- Liquid bioenergy very important, especially in SSP1
- Also some solids and chemicals, especially in SSP3
Mitigation Scenarios
- Increased (but not exclusive) use of BECCS. H2 in SSP1 → increased technological development
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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20. RQ3: Emissions
Supply Curves
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy
and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the
energy system into account?
EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)
Increasing supply of biofuels
leads to higher emission
factors and GHG payback
periods.
Lowest GHG effect from
abandoned agricultural lands
and temperate regions
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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21. RQ3: Emissions
Supply Curves
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy
and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the
energy system into account?
EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)
Increasing supply of biofuels
leads to higher emission
factors and GHG payback
periods.
Lowest GHG effect from
abandoned agricultural lands
and temperate regions
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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22. 22
RQ3: Emissions
Energy System
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for
bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use
and the energy system into account?
Biomass
competes
everywhere
Biomass
limited
to specific
sectors
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

23. Total emission reduction for each end-use sector:
 At taxes > 200$/tC, limiting bioenergy to power production is more effective than
having it compete freely
23
RQ3: Emissions
Energy System
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for
bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use
and the energy system into account?
Biomass
competes
everywhere
Biomass
limited
to specific
sectors
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

24. RQ3: Emissions
Integrated
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for
bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use
and the energy system into account?
SSP2
Base Mitig
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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25. RQ3: Emissions
Integrated
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for
bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use
and the energy system into account?
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig
Availability of high quality lands for biomass and protection of carbon stocks in SSP1 leads to
high biomass deploymend and land based mitigation!
In SSP2, about 10% of mitigation is due to biomass use, largest contribution from BECCS
- Higher in SSP1 (lower LUC, better bioenergy technologies)
- Lower in SSP3
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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26. RQ4: The role of biomass
Strategies
What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate
change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in
an integrated manner?
Biomass has an important role
- Residues: low cost source, similar across scenarios
- Energy crops (lignocellulosic), important at higher demand levels
Conditions for its effective use
- Land use scenarios and Protection of carbon stocks
High biomass production with mitigation
vs.
Low biomass production in high LUC
- Multiple energy and non-energy uses
- Highest mitigation: transport and power
- Advanced technologies a must: 2nd gen. Biofuels, BECCS
- Competing uses: Improve efficiency and alternate technologies
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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27. RQ4: The role of biomass
Strategies
What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate
change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in
an integrated manner?
- Supply Regions:
- Residues:
- Asia
- OECD
- ...
- Energy crops:
- Latin America
- OECD
- Asia
- Africa
- ...
Mitigation scenarios
SSP1 2.6 SSP2 2.6 SSP3 3.4
2100
Primary Production (EJPrim/yr)
Residues 74 75 76
Energy Crops 192 144 119
Total 266 220 197
Land Use(MHa)
451 359 302
Secondary Bioenergy (EJSec/yr)
w/o CCS 94 90 80
w CCS 61 33 29
% Total Final Consumption
35% 25% 21%
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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28. Land & feedstock strategies
• MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Economic equilibrium, perfect foresight
– Competition between Agriculture – Forestry – Biomass
– Biomass from energy crops and forestry
• IMAGE: Biophysical
– Food-first, biomass grown on abandoned and unprotected natural lands
– Energy crops and residues
Energy strategies
• Importance of 2nd generation biofuels
• BECCS important in both models
• Timing differences due to foresight and different mitigation options
RQ4: The role of biomass
Comparison
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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29. Recomendations
Research
• Further investigate model uncertainty
• IAM representation of advanced agricultural and conversion systems
• Better understand tradeoffs
– Land based mitigation vs. Biomass production; ecological and competing uses; inputs for
increased crop yields; further impacts
• Feasibility of IAM projections
Policy
• Develop markets for residues and 2nd generation feedstocks
• Intensification of agriculture and protection of carbon stocks (global!)
• Further develop and roll-out 2nd gen. biofuels and BECCS technologies
• Long-term policies, short sighted policies may be counter-productive
• Increased trade: international standards, markets, certification schemes,
etc.
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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30. vassilis.daioglou@pbl.nl

31. Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 1
AdaptedfromStehfestetal.(2014)
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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32. Industry
Transport
Buildings
Chemicals
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Bioenergy
Electricity
Heat
H2
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Hydropower
Adapted from Bowman et al. 2006
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 1
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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33. Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 2
Context
• By-products from agriculture and forestry
• Thought to be cheap, plentiful and have very low direct & indirect land use change
• Large uncertainty of availability and assessments do not capture important dynamics
– Simple methodologies → Poor understanding of drivers, constraints
– Limited exploration of sensitivities, costs, regional differences
Aim & Method
• Develop and apply a method to assess the potential, costs, drivers and constraints of
residues
• Availability and costs related to production and intensity of agriculture and forestry in
IMAGE
• Different potential types: Theoretical → Ecological → Available
• Different scenarios: Medium - Optimistic - Pessimistic
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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34. 2100
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 2
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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35. Theoretical Potential (GJ/km2)
Ecological Potential (GJ/km2)
Supply Costs ($/GJPrim)
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 2
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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36. Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 2
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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37. Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 3
Context
• Studies have evaluated the emissions of biomass/biofuel production
– Emission Factors (EF) or GHG Payback Period (PBP)
– Sutdies usually site and feedstock specific
• Little understanding on:
– How EF/PBPs vary across locations
– Importance of counterfactual land uses (i.e. Development of natural vegetation)
– Biomass/biofuel supply at specific EF/PBP levels
– The effect of policies adopting EF/PBPs as sustainability criteria on supply potential
Aim & Method
• Determine spatially specific EFs/PBP for different biofuels
• Use consistent crop growth and carbon cycle models
• Draw emission-supply curves: Biofuel availability at different EF/PBP
• Investigate importance of different accounting periods (20yr vs. 85 yr)
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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38. Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 3
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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39. Context
• Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood
and modelled in long-term models
• Future potential of biomass is this sector and its potential for emission mitigation is
unclear
– Replacing fossil fuels as feedstocks
– Recycling and cascading uses
Aim & Method
• Assess non-energy sector and develop a long-term demand model
• Determine future demand of fossil fuels and biomass for this sector
• Determine future emissions and how biomass can contribute to their mitigation
• Evaluate different post-consumer waste strategies such as recycling and incineration
with power production
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 4
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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40. Total global gross gross non-energy demand
No-biomass With Biomass
Carbon flows for NoBio and Bio Cases Implications for cascading
Carbon content (CC) accumulated
in chemicals and plastics is
emitted if incinerated (for power
production)
Unless CC is much lower than
fossil fuels and incineration plants
have high efficiency, cascading
may have limited emission
reductions
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 4
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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41. Context
• Biomass can displace fossil fuels in a number of end-uses
– Buildings, Industry, Transport, Chemcials, Converted to electricity, etc.
• Mitigation potential of biomass depends on a number of elements:
– Potential and competitivness of biomass per sector
– What (fossil) fuel is displaced and potential leakage
– Possibility of advanced technologies
– Effect of different competing uses
Aim & Method
• Use the TIMER (dynamic energy-system model) to investigate different biomass
uses
– Conduct experiments with different biomass use constraints
– Compare emission reduction potential of each experiment (with respect to a no-biomass
counterfactual)
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 5
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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42. 170EJ/yr
22EJ/yr
Secondary energy demand per sector Emissions per sector
Cumulative emission reductions (due to biomass use) per sector
GtCO2 reduction GtCO2 reduction
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 5
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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43. Context
• Different IAMs represent the energy and land systems differently
• Yet there is broad agreement on the importance of biomass in order to meet the
2°C goal
• The reasons behind this “agreement” and the individual strategies each model
adopts are unclear
Aim & Method
• Compare the representation of the land and energy systems in two IAMs
– MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
– IMAGE
• Compare (bio)energy demand in harmonised baseline and mitigation scenarios
– How much biomass is used?
– Where is it directed
– What are the overall emission mitigation strategies
Supplementary Slides:
Chapter 1
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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44. BaselineMitigationSupplementary Slides:
Chapter 1
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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