How demography and costal media penetrations are changing - comparing Africa and rest of the world. What are other basic trends which will influence elections and the political process? What are challenges for African countries and political leaders?

1. AFRICAN ELECTIONS:
ON THE VERGE OF CHANGE
4th Africa Political Summit
Addis Ababa
September 09-12, 2019
Valentin Bianki

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§ Bianki and Partners is an independent political consulting company.
§ We specialize in politics and elections: consulting, research, development,
and implementation of operations, projects, and campaigns.
§ Since 1999 we have worked in 15 countries (Asia, Africa, Western and Eastern
Europe) and we are based in Saint Petersburg (Russia).
§ We have conducted over 450 in-depth studies and over 30 campaigns and
projects.
About us

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§ I personally have worked in 15 countries. I was a consultant for
7 presidential and parliamentary campaigns in 5 countries.
§ I have a PhD in political psychology. I taught Political Marketing and Political
Psychology at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia for 12 years.
§ I am a board member of Russian Association of Political Consultants (RAPC).
§ I am a member of European Association of Political Consultants (EAPC),
International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP), Russian Public Relations
Association (RPRA).
About us
Valentin Bianki
CEO and founder

4. Contents
A.POPULATION: WORLD AND AFRICA STATISTICS
B.AFRICAN STATE LEADERS IN SOCIAL MEDIA
C.PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
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5. A.POPULATION:
WORLD AND AFRICA STATISTICS
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A1. World population, 1990-2030
Africa:
- second most populated world region;
- one of the two regions with population still
rapidly growing;
- the only region where population will rapidly
grow for at least 20 years.
According to Economic perspectives (GDP
forecast), poverty is likely to increase in most
African countries.
Data source: http://unctad.org/
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFRICA ASIA
EUROPE LAT. AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
Africa
Asia

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A2. Population age structure, 2018
40%
24%
15%
24%
18%
23%
10%
8%
5%
8%
6%
7%
17%
16%
11%
17%
14%
15%
33%
53%
68%
51%
61%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AFRICA
ASIA
EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN
NORTHERN AMERICA
OCEANIA
Data source:
http://unctad.org/
"15-19” - those who enter the voting age in 2016-2020
"20-29” - social media generation, already reached the
voting age
§ Africa has the largest share of population in all 3
young age groups (under 30).
§ Median age in Africa is 19.4 years.
§ In 2021 voters of social media generation will
constitute 33% of African population.
§ In two years over 40% of the voters are likely to be
of social media generation, in five years that figure
is projected to increase to over 50%.
under 15 15-19 20-29 over 29

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A3. Urban population share, 1990-2030
§ Africa is the least urbanized world region.
§ Africa is one of the two regions where
urbanization is rapidly increasing.
§ The share of African urban residents is
projected to grow from 42 percent in 2019
to almost 50 percent by 2030.
Data source: http://unctad.org/
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFRICA ASIA
EUROPE LAT. AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
Africa
Asia

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A4. Internet penetration, 2017-2019
§ Africa has the lowest internet
penetration rate among world regions.
§ In the past two years internet
penetration rate in Africa has increased
for 25% - more than in other regions.
§ In the next 5-7 years internet
penetration in Africa is projected to
overreach 50%. Today several African
countries are developing mobile
networks to cover rural areas. Increase
of the internet penetration is sure to
follow.
Data source: http://datareportal.com

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A5. Social media penetration, 2017-2019
Data source: http://datareportal.com
§ Africa has the lowest social media
penetration rate among world regions.
§ Dynamics of the social media penetration
in Africa are much lower than can be
expected.
§ We predict that in a maximum of 10
years social media penetration will
increase dramatically – up to 40%.

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A6. Active social media users share by country, 2019
Data source: http://datareportal.com
§ And we can see that Africa is much
diverse in terms of social media
penetration.

12. B. AFRICAN STATE LEADERS
IN SOCIAL MEDIA
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B1. Leaders’ presence in social media
Data: Bianki and Partners. We looked for personal and official accounts of head of states in the three most popular social
networks. We excluded Sudan, Algeria and Libya from the analyses because of the transition period in these countries.
none
6%
1
network
18%
2
networks
49%
3
networks
27%
In how many networks do the
leaders have accounts?
§ Formal presence of African state leaders in
social media is at a high level.
§ Only 6% of leaders don’t have accounts
and only 18% are using only one social
network.

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B2. Leaders’ presence in social media
Data: Bianki and Partners. We looked for personal and official accounts of head of states in the three most popular social
networks. We excluded Sudan, Algeria and Libya from the analyses because of the transition period in these countries.
official acc. 45% of leaders
personal acc. 67% of leaders
official acc. 4% of leaders
personal acc. 33% of leaders
official acc. 51% of leaders
personal acc. 69% of leaders
How many leaders have accounts
in the three main networks?
§ Most leaders prefer to have personal
accounts, not official – or they have both.
§ Twitter and Facebook usage is at the same
level.
§ Instagram is mostly used for personal
accounts.

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B3. Social media popularity
Active social media users, % of populationData source: datareportal.com. Chart: plot.ly
Calculations: Bianki and Partners.
Low penetration (<15%) Average penetration (15-45%) High penetration (15-45%)

16. # Country
Active social media
users share
Leader
Leader’s followers as a
% of active social
media users
1 Gabon 35% Ali Bongo Ondimba 33%
2 Rwanda 5% Paul Kagame 23%
3 Ghana 19% Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo 11%
4 Djibouti 21% Ismaïl Omar Guelleh 11%
5 Egypt 30% Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil El-Sisi 11%
6 Tunisia 64% Mohamed Ennaceur 10%
7 Senegal 21% Macky Sall 9%
8 Liberia 11% George Manneh Oppong Weah 9%
9 Namibia 26% Hage Gottfried Geingob 9%
10 Seychelles 76% Danny Faure 8%
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B4. Top 10 leaders (by share of followers)

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B5. Top 10 leaders in main social networks (by absolute figures)
# Country Official Personal
1 Egypt 2.6 mln
2 Nigeria 1.5 mln 2.3 mln
3 Rwanda 348 k 1.5 mln
4 South Africa 1.2 mln 676 k
5 Uganda 1.1 mln
6 Ghana 58 k 1.1 mln
7 Senegal 214 k 978 k
8 Somalia 514 k 244 k
9 Côte d’Ivoire 385 k 513 k
10 Cameroon 467 k
# Country Personal
1 Egypt 1.2 mln
2 Morocco 1.0 mln
3 Ghana 651 k
4 Côte d’Ivoire 624 k
5 Rwanda 380 k
6 Nigeria 314 k
7 Tanzania 211 k
8 Kenya 115 k
9 Senegal 44 k
10 Zimbabwe 38 k
# Country Official Personal
1 Egypt 437 k 7.4 mln
2 Ghana 1.7 mln
3 Tunisia 1.1 mln 32 k
4 Rwanda 999 k
5 Cameroon 868 k
6 Nigeria 828 k
7 Guinea 784 k
8 Uganda 544 k
9 Zambia 675 k
10 Côte d’Ivoire 624 k

18. C. PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
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C1. Trends
1.Population is rapidly growing and getting younger.
2.Urbanization increases.
3.Increase of internet and social media penetration.
4.Age gap between leaders and population (medians are 62 and 19).
5.Poor economic prospects (and high unemployment rate).
6.Competition between external powers in Africa.
7.Digitalization of governance and its risks and opportunities.

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C2. Effects: how trends affect the way of life
1. Young urbanites are breaking from the traditional patron-client
relationship system.
2. In case of poor economic situation, trends #1-2 will lead to a large
share of population becoming marginalized and poor.
3. People are influenced by social media “viruses”, many of which are
global, not national.
4. Information spreads rapidly, front page headlines reach far rural areas
through WhatsApp in hours.
5. The rise of governance control through IT services.
TRENDS
CHALLENGES

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C3. Challenge #1: voters are changing
Rapid growth of the number of registered voters is expected.
Age matters. Political participation of younger generation will
rapidly increase in many countries. And they are thinking and
communicating in totally different way.
We will see more and more elections where voters choose a
candidate just because he is younger.
number
of voters
voters
age

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C4. Challenge #2: legal procedures will be changed
Registration procedure could even be eliminated.
If everyone has the valid ID, you don’t need registration.
If the country has valid citizen registration electronic
system, you can vote anywhere – not like travelling to your
native village in the election day.
And if everyone has e-ID, you possibly can vote through
internet.

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C5. Challenge #3: new players changing the scene
The “new populism” wave (irrational slogans and
projects designed to attract people). Anti-elite, far-
right (like blaming foreigners in RSA) and far-left
ideological positioning is likely expected.
Quick rise of ”third powers“ (parties or candidates) in
de facto two-party systems and long ruling parties
losing their leading positions is very likely.

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First generation of African politicians of independent period
have almost gone (like Mugabe few days ago).
Second generation of leaders (60-75) will leave the scene soon.
Second generation will be replaced not by third (aged 45-60),
but even by fourth generation (aged 30-45)!
Social media influencers are the new opinion leaders,
although only a few of them are interested in politics. More
and more of them will be involved in politics. Boby Wine in
Uganda was only on of the first.
C6. Challenge #4: new leaders will replace current ones
Images sources: wikipedia.org; facebook.com

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C7. Challenge #5: changes in mobilization practice
Local traditional leaders will keep losing their
influence over mobilization and voting. Negotiating
within the elite will decrease its role in the election
process.
Databases of supporters with allow to reach them
directly from the state party headquarters using IT
services. It will decrease the role of all the mid-level
leaders trying to “sell” themselves to the state level
parties leaders.
…………
…………

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C8. Challenge #6: role of the interpretation will dominate
Interpretation of the election results will become as important as the results
themselves. The foreign community will play a key role in the interpretation
process. That gives numerous possibilities for international lobbyism and will
increase the role of the African Union.
The image of the campaign influences the campaign itself, and it determines the
campaign result. What is this campaign about? Why this persons is leading?
Answers to these questions should be given.

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C9. Challenge #7: geographical/social splits
Division of votes and political polarization:
capital/rural, majority/minority.
Social media allow people to leave in their own “world
of ideas and positions”, choosing their social
surrounding. So it makes people think in a way “not a
single person voted for the person who has won”.
Although, “minority” may be quite big – like Ndebele in
Zimbabwe, South states in Nigeria, race- and ethnic-
specific provinces West Cape and KwaZulu-Natal in RSA.
Images source: wikipedia.org
Zimbabwe-2018
South Africa
2019
Nigeria-2019

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Do not waste time preparing to fight the last war!
We will be glad to help you
getting ready to all the changes!