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Interpreting trends: making the most of
new developments in the international
market
Dr Neil Kemp
Visiting Fellow
Internat...
Today’s presentation agenda
The trends
The competition
Marketing practice: how are we doing?
The challenges
The future
A few questions?
3
• How might you select a balanced market portfolio?
• How is the international market segmenting?
• Wha...
Some messages
• International student mobility continues to grow – but
it is also evolving
• Competition to attract studen...
International student mobility is strong and set
to continue! Total globally mobile students
(UNESCO)
• Much of the recent...
The main source and destination countries in
2010 (UNESCO-UIS)
The UK and international competition
• US
• Australia
• Canada
• European countries
• Other
• Malaysia
• China
• Middle East
8
International competition for th...
UK international enrolments – recent
trends
9
UK TNE a success story
(Source HESA)
The US and international
enrolments (Open Doors 2011)
Australia
Will there be an
enrolment
resurgence following
changes to visa
regime?
Source: AEI Education Australia
The competitors - Europe
Germany
• Modest recent growth
• Chinese enrolment consistent & about 23,000 – not increasing
• E...
UK and its competitors
• UK has greater diversity of source countries than all main
competitors
• Lower dependence on Chin...
Level of study
Country
Subject of study
International student markets: primary
market segmentation
International student enrolments to UK
universities according to Mission Group
16
Source HESA
International student enrolments to UK
universities (HESA)
17
18
International student enrolments to UK
universities – leading source countries (HESA)
Trends in international student enrolments to
US universities (Open Doors, New York, 2013)
19
Some concerns for the UK:
PGT enrolments, select non-EU countries
Source HESA
First year undergrad enrolments to UK
universities according to lead source countries
(less China)
21
Source HESA
UK PGT – new enrolments by subject
areas
Source HESA
Trends in engineering enrolments
according to lead source countries
Source HESA
UK & international student recruitment:
an overview
• Excellent overall growth to 2011-12 – then slowdown/decline
• Growth...
What are your current concerns in your
international activities?
25
A few possible ones?
• Meeting recruitment targets?
• Unrealistic targets
• How to prioritise markets – agreeing prioritie...
….. A major challenge for international education marketing
professionals concerns how best to balance the priority need t...
In which countries do you plan to invest most
of your efforts in the next three years?
• China
• India
• USA
• Nigeria
• V...
Prioritising markets, improving market
intelligence
29
New paradigm: four new models for
non-EU recruitment markets
The BIMAs (Big Markets)
• 3 countries > 20,000
• 6 countries ...
The non-EU BIMAs (2012-13 data)
Top 3: More than 20,000
China
India
USA
Others (>6,000)
Nigeria
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Saudi A...
3,000 to 6,000 students in UK (HESA)
How might you prioritise? What criteria?
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Norway 4390 4905 542...
SIMAs - some larger with recent good
growth (HESA)
EMAs - some examples with recent growth
(Source HESA)
The NIMAs - niche
• How to define?
• Only likely to be small totals – but you have potentially
large market share
• Subjec...
Marketing & communications
• Understand your priority market segments
• Understand your students – importance of WOM (they...
Internationalisation and HE: the virtuous
circle of benefits
Resources
• What is appropriate?
• How do we know?
39
A few messages:
•Brand matters – ‘Positional Good’
•Don’t set unrealistic targets
•Invest for the long term
•New strate...
Some crystal ball gazing – the next five
years
• China to UK – slow-down or some declines
• South Asian recruitment will g...
Many thanks!
Neil Kemp
neil.kemp@nkeducation.com
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Interpreting trends: making the most of new developments in the international market - Neil Kemp

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Interpreting trends: making the most of new developments in the international market - Neil Kemp

  1. 1. Interpreting trends: making the most of new developments in the international market Dr Neil Kemp Visiting Fellow International higher education forum 2014
  2. 2. Today’s presentation agenda The trends The competition Marketing practice: how are we doing? The challenges The future
  3. 3. A few questions? 3 • How might you select a balanced market portfolio? • How is the international market segmenting? • What Marketing-Communications mix is appropriate for the market segments of interest? • What level of investment is appropriate?
  4. 4. Some messages • International student mobility continues to grow – but it is also evolving • Competition to attract students increases • Some UK universities are doing very well – others are facing declines • Institutions are getting SMARTer • Market is very influenced by immigration policies
  5. 5. International student mobility is strong and set to continue! Total globally mobile students (UNESCO) • Much of the recent increase due to Asia • Europe and North America steady state Two percent of ALL higher education students are globally mobile UNESCO estimate up to 8 million HE students will be studying internationally by 2030
  6. 6. The main source and destination countries in 2010 (UNESCO-UIS)
  7. 7. The UK and international competition
  8. 8. • US • Australia • Canada • European countries • Other • Malaysia • China • Middle East 8 International competition for the UK?
  9. 9. UK international enrolments – recent trends 9
  10. 10. UK TNE a success story (Source HESA)
  11. 11. The US and international enrolments (Open Doors 2011)
  12. 12. Australia Will there be an enrolment resurgence following changes to visa regime? Source: AEI Education Australia
  13. 13. The competitors - Europe Germany • Modest recent growth • Chinese enrolment consistent & about 23,000 – not increasing • Eastern Europe successes seem to be slowing/declining • Successes in engineering and technology The Netherlands • 60% enrolments from Germany • Relatively low recruitment from non-EU countries France • Francophone country domination – North and West Africa • Modest numbers of non-EU, Chinese and Vietnamese
  14. 14. UK and its competitors • UK has greater diversity of source countries than all main competitors • Lower dependence on China relative to US and Australia • Market mix and proportions - limited overlap between UK and competitors (nearest is the US) • Most overlap with competitors is for China: particularly undergraduates and business studies • UK managers see other UK universities as their competitors – not overseas competitors!
  15. 15. Level of study Country Subject of study International student markets: primary market segmentation
  16. 16. International student enrolments to UK universities according to Mission Group 16 Source HESA
  17. 17. International student enrolments to UK universities (HESA) 17
  18. 18. 18 International student enrolments to UK universities – leading source countries (HESA)
  19. 19. Trends in international student enrolments to US universities (Open Doors, New York, 2013) 19
  20. 20. Some concerns for the UK: PGT enrolments, select non-EU countries Source HESA
  21. 21. First year undergrad enrolments to UK universities according to lead source countries (less China) 21 Source HESA
  22. 22. UK PGT – new enrolments by subject areas Source HESA
  23. 23. Trends in engineering enrolments according to lead source countries Source HESA
  24. 24. UK & international student recruitment: an overview • Excellent overall growth to 2011-12 – then slowdown/decline • Growth from E/SE Asia making up for declines in South Asia • Undergraduate recruitment growing strong • PGT demand is reducing • PGR demand continues steady • EU had been good growth, led by undergraduate demand, now slowing • Russell Group HEIs continue to do well – but others in decline
  25. 25. What are your current concerns in your international activities? 25
  26. 26. A few possible ones? • Meeting recruitment targets? • Unrealistic targets • How to prioritise markets – agreeing priorities • Risk • Market intelligence • Resources? • Staff • Finances • Marketing and communications? • What works – what doesn’t • Role of e-marketing • What does TNE, MOOCs mean for me?26
  27. 27. ….. A major challenge for international education marketing professionals concerns how best to balance the priority need to maintain recruitment from the larger and more established country markets, while positioning for new and niche possibilities …… Tim Rogers & Neil Kemp ….. ‘International student recruitment is an inherently complex, costly and competitive domain, which is becoming increasingly integral to the financial health of many institutions. A strategic, deliberate and informed recruitment approach will help institutions to maximise their opportunities in an efficient manner’ …….. Rahul Choudaha, World Education Services
  28. 28. In which countries do you plan to invest most of your efforts in the next three years? • China • India • USA • Nigeria • Vietnam • Brazil • Saudi Arabia • Malaysia • Hong Kong All the above – and more …… 28
  29. 29. Prioritising markets, improving market intelligence 29
  30. 30. New paradigm: four new models for non-EU recruitment markets The BIMAs (Big Markets) • 3 countries > 20,000 • 6 countries from 6,000 to 20,000 The SIMAs (Steady Markets) • 13 countries with from 3,000 to 9,000 The EMAs (Emerging Markets) • Suggest these could be less than 2,000 in 2006 but with 10% pa growth over last 5 years The NIMAs (Niche Markets)
  31. 31. The non-EU BIMAs (2012-13 data) Top 3: More than 20,000 China India USA Others (>6,000) Nigeria Malaysia Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Pakistan Singapore
  32. 32. 3,000 to 6,000 students in UK (HESA) How might you prioritise? What criteria? 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Norway 4390 4905 5425 Korea (South) 5255 5240 5270 Taiwan 5165 4895 4640 Bangladesh 4225 3955 4365 Vietnam 3330 3925 4235 Russia 3565 3825 3935 Turkey 3755 3775 3830 Japan 4100 3940 3785 Switzerland 2815 3085 3230 Australia 2780 3050 3210 United Arab Emirates 3145 3220 3175 Iran 3840 3790 3115 Sri Lanka 4310 3705 3065
  33. 33. SIMAs - some larger with recent good growth (HESA)
  34. 34. EMAs - some examples with recent growth (Source HESA)
  35. 35. The NIMAs - niche • How to define? • Only likely to be small totals – but you have potentially large market share • Subject based • Country based • First mover advantage?
  36. 36. Marketing & communications • Understand your priority market segments • Understand your students – importance of WOM (they want to speak with a real person!) • Student journey • Talk with them – qualitative feedback • Market research - • Review all media formats • Partnerships • Digital marketing • Websites • Social media
  37. 37. Internationalisation and HE: the virtuous circle of benefits
  38. 38. Resources • What is appropriate? • How do we know?
  39. 39. 39 A few messages: •Brand matters – ‘Positional Good’ •Don’t set unrealistic targets •Invest for the long term •New strategies take time to impact •International student market is inherently conservative
  40. 40. Some crystal ball gazing – the next five years • China to UK – slow-down or some declines • South Asian recruitment will grow again • Undergraduates – growth likely to continue but slowing down • Positive demand likely to continue from Malaysia, Hong Kong, USA, Canada, Norway and Switzerland • Brazil, Saudi Arabia other Middle East - problems? • Growth, but slower than previous - Vietnam, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Nepal (?) • Concerns re engineering and technology recruitment to UK • EU – return to modest growth for UG, exchanges, PGR/PGT still unclear
  41. 41. Many thanks! Neil Kemp neil.kemp@nkeducation.com

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