Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
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Презентація Андрія Грицевського (Департамент ядерної енергетики МАГАТЕ) в рамках Міжнародної конференції з нагоди 10-річчя АУЯФ "Український ядерний форум 2019: ядерна енергетика - стан та тенденції розвитку"
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Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
- 1. Energy in 21st century: Perspectives of Nuclear Power development up to 2050 Andrii Gritsevskyi
- 2. Energy Situation in 2017
- 3. World Electricity Production by Energy Source 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017 TW·h Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
- 4. Electricity Production by Source, 2017 38% 3% 23% 2% 16% 10% 5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.06% Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal Other
- 5. Final Energy by Source, 2017 13% 40% 14% 11% 19% 3.4% Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Electricity Heat and Other
- 6. Nuclear Electricity, 2017 Source: RDS-2 2018
- 7. Power Reactor Information System
- 8. Current status: June 2019 In operation 449 nuclear power reactors [~398 GWe] • USA 97 • France 58 • China 46 • Japan 37 • Russia 36 • S. Korea 25
- 9. Operational Nuclear Power Reactors Source: PRIS
- 10. Current status: June 2019 Under Construction 54 nuclear power reactors • China 11 • India 7 • Russia 6 • S. Korea 4 • UAE 4
- 11. Future Projections and Scenarios
- 12. “Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't!” Anonymous
- 13. A history of mistaken forecasts In 1975 IAEA forecast, globally 1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e) 2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e) Actual 9 December 2018 capacity - about 400 GW(e)
- 15. Reference Data Series No. 1 Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050 38 editions – 40+ years of experience Global overview with Reginal focus
- 16. Key assumptions The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible
- 17. Global Nuclear Power Projections 2018 352 323 356 392 511 641 748 0 200 400 600 800 2017 2030 2040 2050 GW(e) Year low high
- 18. World Nuclear Capacity: Actual, Retirements and Additions, High and Low Cases
- 19. High Projections of Future Nuclear Generation Capacity from 2011 to 2018
- 20. 2018 vs 2017 projections
- 21. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors, 2018 “The Agency’s latest annual projections show that nuclear power will continue to play a key role in the world’s low-carbon energy mix. However, the declining trend in our low projection for installed capacity up to 2050 suggests that, without significant progress on using the full potential of nuclear power, it will be difficult for the world to secure sufficient energy to achieve sustainable development and to mitigate climate change.” Director General Yukiya Amano
- 25. IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
- 26. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
- 27. Northern America: High and Low Cases
- 28. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
- 29. Northern, Western and Southern Europe: High and Low Cases
- 30. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
- 31. Eastern Europe: High and Low Cases
- 32. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
- 33. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's Statement at IAEA International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century “…it is difficult to see how the world will meet the challenge of securing sufficient energy, and mitigating the impact of climate change, without making more use of nuclear power”. “The IAEA remains committed to helping the world make optimal use of nuclear technology to generate low-carbon energy for development, and to counter the effects of climate change”.
- 34. Thank you!