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Energy in 21st century: Perspectives of
Nuclear Power development up to 2050
Andrii Gritsevskyi
Energy Situation in 2017
World Electricity Production by Energy Source
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 200...
Electricity Production by Source, 2017
38%
3%
23%
2%
16%
10%
5%
1.8%
0.3%
0.06% Coal, Lignite and Peat
Oil
Natural Gas
Bio...
Final Energy by Source, 2017
13%
40%
14%
11%
19%
3.4% Coal, Lignite and Peat
Oil
Natural Gas
Bioenergy and Waste
Electrici...
Nuclear Electricity, 2017
Source: RDS-2 2018
Power Reactor Information System
Current status: June 2019
In operation
449 nuclear power
reactors [~398 GWe]
• USA 97
• France 58
• China 46
• Japan 37
• ...
Operational Nuclear Power Reactors
Source: PRIS
Current status: June 2019
Under Construction
54 nuclear power reactors
• China 11
• India 7
• Russia 6
• S. Korea 4
• UAE 4
Future Projections and Scenarios
“Forecasting is the art of saying what will
happen, and then explaining why it didn't!”
Anonymous
A history of mistaken forecasts
In 1975 IAEA forecast, globally
1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e)
2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e)
Actual 9 D...
Reference Data Series No. 1
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is
an annual publication containing
estimates of energy, e...
Key assumptions
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not
extreme, underlying assumptions on the different d...
Global Nuclear Power Projections 2018
352
323
356
392
511
641
748
0
200
400
600
800
2017 2030 2040 2050
GW(e)
Year
low high
World Nuclear Capacity: Actual, Retirements
and Additions, High and Low Cases
High Projections of Future Nuclear
Generation Capacity from 2011 to 2018
2018 vs 2017 projections
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's
Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors, 2018
“The Agency’s...
IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
RDS-1 2018
Northern America: High and Low Cases
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
RDS-1 2018
Northern, Western and Southern Europe:
High and Low Cases
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
RDS-1 2018
Eastern Europe: High and Low Cases
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
RDS-1 2018
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's
Statement at IAEA International Ministerial Conference on
Nuclear Po...
Thank you!
Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року
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Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року

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Презентація Андрія Грицевського (Департамент ядерної енергетики МАГАТЕ) в рамках Міжнародної конференції з нагоди 10-річчя АУЯФ "Український ядерний форум 2019: ядерна енергетика - стан та тенденції розвитку"

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Енергетика 21-го століття: оцінка розвитку ядерної енергетики до 2050 року

  1. 1. Energy in 21st century: Perspectives of Nuclear Power development up to 2050 Andrii Gritsevskyi
  2. 2. Energy Situation in 2017
  3. 3. World Electricity Production by Energy Source 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017 TW·h Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
  4. 4. Electricity Production by Source, 2017 38% 3% 23% 2% 16% 10% 5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.06% Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal Other
  5. 5. Final Energy by Source, 2017 13% 40% 14% 11% 19% 3.4% Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil Natural Gas Bioenergy and Waste Electricity Heat and Other
  6. 6. Nuclear Electricity, 2017 Source: RDS-2 2018
  7. 7. Power Reactor Information System
  8. 8. Current status: June 2019 In operation 449 nuclear power reactors [~398 GWe] • USA 97 • France 58 • China 46 • Japan 37 • Russia 36 • S. Korea 25
  9. 9. Operational Nuclear Power Reactors Source: PRIS
  10. 10. Current status: June 2019 Under Construction 54 nuclear power reactors • China 11 • India 7 • Russia 6 • S. Korea 4 • UAE 4
  11. 11. Future Projections and Scenarios
  12. 12. “Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't!” Anonymous
  13. 13. A history of mistaken forecasts In 1975 IAEA forecast, globally 1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e) 2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e) Actual 9 December 2018 capacity - about 400 GW(e)
  14. 14. Reference Data Series No. 1 Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050 38 editions – 40+ years of experience Global overview with Reginal focus
  15. 15. Key assumptions The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible
  16. 16. Global Nuclear Power Projections 2018 352 323 356 392 511 641 748 0 200 400 600 800 2017 2030 2040 2050 GW(e) Year low high
  17. 17. World Nuclear Capacity: Actual, Retirements and Additions, High and Low Cases
  18. 18. High Projections of Future Nuclear Generation Capacity from 2011 to 2018
  19. 19. 2018 vs 2017 projections
  20. 20. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors, 2018 “The Agency’s latest annual projections show that nuclear power will continue to play a key role in the world’s low-carbon energy mix. However, the declining trend in our low projection for installed capacity up to 2050 suggests that, without significant progress on using the full potential of nuclear power, it will be difficult for the world to secure sufficient energy to achieve sustainable development and to mitigate climate change.” Director General Yukiya Amano
  21. 21. IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
  22. 22. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
  23. 23. Northern America: High and Low Cases
  24. 24. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
  25. 25. Northern, Western and Southern Europe: High and Low Cases
  26. 26. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
  27. 27. Eastern Europe: High and Low Cases
  28. 28. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions RDS-1 2018
  29. 29. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Director General's Statement at IAEA International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century “…it is difficult to see how the world will meet the challenge of securing sufficient energy, and mitigating the impact of climate change, without making more use of nuclear power”. “The IAEA remains committed to helping the world make optimal use of nuclear technology to generate low-carbon energy for development, and to counter the effects of climate change”.
  30. 30. Thank you!

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