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Towards 5G – assessing the capacity, coverage and cost implications of future mobile telecommunications infrastructure

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Edward Oughton, University of Cambridge

From household to global: simulating national infrastructure to inform decision-making

18 April 2018

Institution of Civil Engineers, London

ITRC-MISTRAL’s unique approach is already changing the way that governments and businesses approach infrastructure investment. This event demonstrated examples from the around the world to show how these changes can transform decision-making.

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Towards 5G – assessing the capacity, coverage and cost implications of future mobile telecommunications infrastructure

  1. 1. Towards 5G - assessing the capacity, coverage and cost implications of future mobile telecommunications infrastructure Edward Oughton ITRC-MISTRAL showcase, 18 April 2018
  2. 2. Why invest in telecoms? WiFi 4G 3G 2G One of the biggest shifts in the next decade will be the transition from 4G LTE to 5G wireless networks Mobile telecoms is experiencing widespread technological change. The UK must keep pace. The UK wants to be a world leader in the deployment of 5G systems
  3. 3. What’s the challenge? Investment needs to adapt to this evolving landscape, dealing with the dynamics taking place in both the supply and demand for digital connectivity Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) and other market actors need to understand different potential 5G futures. 5G $ To achieve cost-efficient deployment, research is needed which quantifies the capacity, coverage and cost implications of different infrastructure strategies Capacity Coverage Cost Estimating future demand is challenging as there is a high degree of uncertainty due to rapid technological development ? Demand
  4. 4. How are we approaching the challenge? Models and Simulations Open-source foresight tool – The Cambridge Communications Assessment Model Testing how current and potential market strategies perform Strategic Foresight Disseminating findings on digital infrastructure strategies Analysis
  5. 5. What questions are we asking? The Cambridge Communications Assessment Model helps us test interactions between the supply and demand for digital infrastructure. Assuming 5G technologies start to be commercially deployed from 2020… 1. How does growing data usage and demographic change affect the demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure? 2. How do different supply-side infrastructure options perform when tested against future demand scenarios? 3. What are the cost advantages across strategies and scenarios? Scotland England Wales
  6. 6. What did we learn? 92% of UK data growth results from technological change Only 8% of UK data growth results from population growth 5G spectrum strategies meet demand up to 2025 5G small cell deployment costs mean they are likely only in cities 92% 8% Cities2025
  7. 7. Thank you To learn more, please contact Edward Oughton (e.oughton@jbs.cam.ac.uk ) Oughton, E.J., Frias, Z., Russell, T., Sicker, S., and Cleevely, D.D. (2018) “Towards 5G: Scenario-Based Assessment of the Future Supply and Demand for Mobile Telecommunications Infrastructure.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.03.016.

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