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The potential future climate of Europe – climatic hazards and impacts: insights from the IMPRESSIONS project

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Ian Holman, Cranfield University

Webinar: Exploring the use of foresight methods in climate resilience

30 May, 2018

Our webinar showcased the potential of foresight methods in increasing climate resilience across Europe, in the light of Juncker’s 5 Futures for Europe.

Presentations

The use of foresight to increase climate resilience in the light of Juncker’s “5 Futures for Europe” – Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria

Introduction and PLACARD foresight activities – Rob Swart, Wageningen Environmental Research

The 5 futures of Europe and the future of climate action: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 – Jonathan Gaventa, Director, E3G Brussels Office

Potential future climate in terms of climatic hazards and impacts expected for Europe – Ian Holman, Cranfield University

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The potential future climate of Europe – climatic hazards and impacts: insights from the IMPRESSIONS project

  1. 1. Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number: 603416 The potential future climate of Europe - climatic hazards and impacts: insights from the IMPRESSIONS project Ian Holman Cranfield University, UK
  2. 2. www.impressions-project.eu EEA 2017
  3. 3. www.impressions-project.eu Uncertainty in climate change projections (CMIP5) European winter precipitation European winter temperature Internal climate variability Climate model uncertainty Scenario uncertainty [IPCC WG1 5th AR]
  4. 4. www.impressions-project.eu IMPRESSIONS project • Despite the Paris agreement, current emissions trends highlight that high-end (>2oC) scenarios are still very plausible. • Thus, IMPRESSIONS aims to: – advance understanding of the consequences of high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios, and – work with decision-makers to explore how such knowledge can be applied within integrated adaptation and mitigation plans.
  5. 5. www.impressions-project.eu Global CO2 emissions
  6. 6. www.impressions-project.eu Future climate change (2071-2100) RCP8.5; compared to 1971-2000; ensemble mean (EEA, 2015)
  7. 7. www.impressions-project.eu Annual and seasonal precipitation changes in 2071-2100 (relative to 1961-90) for the IMPRESSIONS GCM-RCM models under RCP8.5.
  8. 8. www.impressions-project.eu Change in river discharge River Lule (Sweden) River Tagus (Iberia) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 2041-2070 2071-2100 2071-21002041-2070
  9. 9. www.impressions-project.eu Annual water availability • Public water supply • Irrigation • Hydropower • E-flows • Navigation • Recreation
  10. 10. www.impressions-project.eu Impacts on forestry • Longer growing seasons • CO2 fertilisation • Habitat shifts • Fire risks • Pests, parasites, diseases, invasive species • Extreme weather events, e.g.: • Excessive rainfall in winter • Droughts in summer
  11. 11. www.impressions-project.eu Impacts and cross sectoral interactions
  12. 12. www.impressions-project.eu “The future isn’t what it used to be…” Harman Kahn The ‘father’ of scenario thinking What will the future bring? Observations are not possible in the future
  13. 13. www.impressions-project.eu Inequality Cintensity Low eSSP1 eSSP4 eSSP5 eSSP3 Low High HighChallenges to mitigation H Challenges to adaptation L L H Shared Socio- economic Pathways (SSPs)
  14. 14. www.impressions-project.eu Integrated scenarios + SES with high emissions (high challenges to mitigation) + SES with low emissions (low challenges to mitigation) • RCP8.5 x EurSSP5 • RCP8.5 x EurSSP3 • RCP4.5 x EurSSP1 • RCP4.5 x EurSSP4
  15. 15. www.impressions-project.eu Future European landuse (IAP2) • Rural employment • Landscape • Tourism • Biodiversity
  16. 16. www.impressions-project.eu Vulnerability to Water Over-exploitation
  17. 17. www.impressions-project.eu Concluding comments • Climate change will have regionally- and sectorally- varying impacts across Europe • Impacts will be affected by both cross-sectoral interactions and society (economy, values, behaviours etc) • Futures have formed a central component of IMPRESSIONS research on future impacts and responses • Impacts and vulnerability often more strongly influenced by socio-economic change than high end climate change • Important opportunities for society to influence impacts (and opportunities) of climate change
  18. 18. www.impressions-project.eu More information on the website http://www.impressions-project.eu/
  19. 19. www.impressions-project.eu
  20. 20. www.impressions-project.eu Climate change Emission scenario GCM RCM GCM sensitivity European ΔT/Δpr (relative to 1961- 90) High RCP8.5 HadGEM2-ES RCA4 High 5.4°C / 5% High RCP8.5 CanESM2 CanRCM4 High 5.4°C / 8% High RCP8.5 IPSL-CM5A-MR WRF High 4.7°C / 13% Intermediate RCP8.5 GFDL-ESM2M RCA4 Low 3.7°C / 6% Intermediate RCP4.5 HadGEM2-ES RCA4 High 3.0°C / 3% Low RCP4.5 GFDL-ESM2M RCA4 Low 2.2°C / 3% Low RCP4.5 MPI-ESM-LR CCLM4 Low 2.0°C / -4% Very low RCP2.6 EC-Earth RCA4 Intermediate 1.4°C / 4% Very low RCP2.6 GFDL-ESM2M REMO Low 1.3°C / 1% Very low RCP2.6 NorESM1-M RCA4 Low 1.3°C / 4%
  21. 21. www.impressions-project.eu Annual and seasonal temperature changes across Europe in 2071-2100 (relative to 1961-90) for the IMPRESSIONS GCM-RCM models under RCP8.5.
  22. 22. www.impressions-project.eu Annual and seasonal precipitation changes across Europe in 2071-2100 (relative to 1961-90) for the IMPRESSIONS GCM-RCM models under RCP8.5.
  23. 23. www.impressions-project.eu Number of high flow days in the period 1980 -2100 exceeding 5th percentile baseline daily flow Tay (Scotland) Tagus (Iberia) RCP4.5 RCP8.5
  24. 24. www.impressions-project.eu IMPRESSIONS Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) 2 Databases Urban Crop yields Forestry Flooding Rural land allocation Hydrology Biodiversity Water use Water availability RCP – EurSSPs
  25. 25. www.impressions-project.eu Impacts in Europe from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report IPCC Indicator EUROPE Alpine Atlantic Continental Northern Southern Urban development é é Water availability ê Water restrictions é é é é Irrigation needs é People affected by flooding é é é é é Cereal /crop yields ê ê ê é ê Livestock production o ê é Grassland production ê ê Food production ê ê ê ê o ê Carbon sequestration (forests) é o é é é é Forest growth/ timber/ wood production o o é ê é ê Forest land area é Biodiversity (predominant trend) ê ê ê ê é ê Arrows reflect an interpretation of the IPCC AR5: é increase; o mixed trends; ê decrease

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