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Strategic foresight: strengthening long-term risk management policies



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Teresa Deubelli, OECD

PLACARD foresight workshop, facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

11–12 December 2018, European Commission, Brussels

The second PLACARD Foresight workshop showcased the potential of foresight methods in increasing climate resilience across Europe. Within the workshop we explored how Juncker’s “5 futures of Europe” can be used for assessing climate and DRR risks in Europe, and for designing and characterising effective response strategies, for three cases (heat and drought, fluvial flooding, coastal impacts).

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Strategic foresight: strengthening long-term risk management policies

  1. 1. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: STRENGHTENING LONG-TERM RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES Teresa Deubelli, Public Governance Directorate, OECD 11 December 2018 PLACARD 2nd Foresight Workshop
  2. 2. 2 A continuously changing risk landscape Domains Megatrends & structural shifts in: Demographic Population growth and migration Urbanisation Age distribution Social Individual empowerment Connectivity Politics/ geopolitics Future governance/trust in government Hegemonic v multipolar worlds/ role of major powers Centrifugal/centripetal tendencies Regional instability and conflict Environment Climate change Demand for resources, and supply Food, water, energy nexus Technological/ productivity Capacity to boost global economic productivity Patterns of production, employment and entrepreneurship Innovation Global value chains Economic Impact of other megatrends Globalisation and future markets/ economic interconnectedness Economic power shifts Knowledge economy Public debt
  3. 3. OECD High Level Risk Forum à OECD High Level Risk Forum: platform for risk managers from government, the private sector and civil society to exchange knowledge & good practices in risk management OECD Recommendation on the governance of critical risks 1. A holistic approach to risk governance 2. Risk assessment, foresight 3. Whole-of-society approach to prevention 4. Strategic crisis management 5. Transparency, accountability, improvement Risk landscape across OECD cannot be assessed in a static, backward looking way
  4. 4. Identifying the future’s dark side to prepare for uncertain changes to the risk landscape 4 Horizon scanning & strategic foresight Looking beyond immediate political cycles with horizon scanning & strategic foresight: Ø anticipate change & strengthen preparedness for future risks Ø decide on disaster risk reduction priorities Ø propose scenarios and models of multiple futures to help inform risk policy-making Ø essential to overcome natural myopia created by day-to-day view & short-term political priorities
  5. 5. 5 National risk assessment Challenge: facilitate the entry of foresight & horizon scanning into the policy bloodstream National risk assessments: findings from horizon scanning & foresight can help: Ø reassess government’s national risk portfolios Ø strengthen capabilities to manage critical risks within different time-frames Ø build better preparedness Ø improve risk management strategies OECD cross-country report on National Risk Assessments: • Increasing use of all-hazards & threats approach in national risks assessments • National risk assessments increasingly feature forward- looking projections of ≥ five years • Often national risk assessments are combined with horizon scanning & foresight to build consensus
  6. 6. 6 Connecting NRAs with horizon scanning & foresight Challenges • Ensuring relevance & value- added of horizon scanning • Timeframes • Right expertise & right information • Clear messages • Multi-stakeholder participation & stove-piping challenge • Data challenge Resolution pathways: • Communicating on the right issues : Avoid communication along the lines of what policy- makers want to hear • Engage policy-makers throughout the process • Cross-departmental involvement in governance arrangements to enable coordination and oversight • Establish top-level leadership and ownership
  7. 7. Teresa.Deubelli@oecd.org THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION