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PLAtform for Climate Adaptation and Risk reDuction



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Rob Swart, Wageningen Environmental Research

Webinar: Exploring the use of foresight methods in climate resilience

30 May, 2018

Our webinar showcased the potential of foresight methods in increasing climate resilience across Europe, in the light of Juncker’s 5 Futures for Europe.


The use of foresight to increase climate resilience in the light of Juncker’s “5 Futures for Europe” – Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria

Introduction and PLACARD foresight activities – Rob Swart, Wageningen Environmental Research

The 5 futures of Europe and the future of climate action: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 – Jonathan Gaventa, Director, E3G Brussels Office

Potential future climate in terms of climatic hazards and impacts expected for Europe – Ian Holman, Cranfield University

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PLAtform for Climate Adaptation and Risk reDuction

  1. 1. 11 PLAtform for Climate Adaptation and Risk reDuction Webinar Rob Swart, Wageningen Environmental Research 30 May 2018
  2. 2. 22 MOST DISASTERS ARE CLIMATE-RELATED 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Numberofnaturaldisasters Years Storms Flood, Mass mov. Wet Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp. Epidemics, Insect infestations OFDA created(1964) CREDcreated& OFDA begancompiling(1973) EM-DATcreated(1988)
  3. 3. 33 CCA DRRCCA DRR CCA DRR Perspective CCA community Perspective DRR community Perspective PLACARD PERSPECTIVES DIFFER UNFCCC Paris Agreement Sendai Framework
  4. 4. 44 DIFFERENT EMPHASIS IN DIFFERENT PHASES OF RESPONSE CYCLE Mitigation/Risk Assessment/ Prevention Prepared- ness Response/ Relief/ Coping Recovery (Rehabilitation/Re construction) CCA DRR
  5. 5. 55 HOW PLACARD WILL SEEK TO ENHANCE THE COOPERATION BETWEEN CCA AND DRR • provide a common ‘space’ where CCA and DRR communities can come together, share experiences, create opportunities for collaboration and eliminate potential duplicative and/or conflicting actions • facilitate communication and knowledge exchange between both communities; and • strengthen CCA and DRR research and institutions and give direction to policy-practice agendas
  6. 6. 66 WHY FORESIGHT? • Increasing resilience goes beyond science, technology or economic considerations - political, institutional, social and psychological factors matter • Foresight (beyond scenario modelling) can play a role in connecting the two communities • Achievements: • 1st Workshop “How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards?” (Vienna, October 2016) • PLACARD report “Foresight for policy & decision-makers” • Policy brief, various blogs
  7. 7. 77 WHAT IS FORESIGHT? Systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. It does not aim to predict the future – to unveil it as if it were predetermined – but to help us build it. In Europe, it is used, inter alia, to plan funding of technology development and research.
  8. 8. 88 FORESIGHT IN DRR AND CCA Foresight in climate change policy and research is dominated by the development and analysis of scenarios quantified with complex (integrated assessment, climate and economic) models Foresight in Disaster Risk Reduction is still rare. When used (e.g., UK), a wider set of drivers is usually considered, often in a more qualitative sense.
  9. 9. 99 HYPOTHESES THAT PLACARD LIKES TO TEST (Qualitative) foresight methods can add diversity to the set of scenario/model- based tools dominant in the climate change adaptation debate. Foresight can support a greater emphasis on forward looking prevention action in disaster risk reduction. Foresight can offer opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to jointly work on solutions -> which methods and tools for which questions?
  10. 10. 1010 AIMS OF THE WEBINAR • Discuss the potential of foresight methods for integrated CCA and DRR solutions • Explore how Juncker’s “5 futures of Europe” can be used as a basis for assessing climate risks and CCA and DRR action (has already been done for mitigation; face-to-face workshop planned) • Focus on three EU policy areas: • Revision of the EU Adaptation Strategy in 2019; • Development and implementation of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism; • Development of the FP9 focusing on knowledge gaps and needs.
  11. 11. 1111 FIVE FUTURES FOR THE EU • How could the EU develop over the next decades? -> Jonathan Gaventa • How could climate and disaster risks develop? -> Ian Holman • What are the challenges for the EU to respond to these risks under different futures? -> your input and 2nd workshop autumn 2018 ?