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Facing the future of Europe’s Climate EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

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Markus Leitner, Ingrid Coninx, Rob Swart & Tiago Capela Lourenço

PLACARD foresight workshop, facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

11–12 December 2018, European Commission, Brussels

The second PLACARD Foresight workshop showcased the potential of foresight methods in increasing climate resilience across Europe. Within the workshop we explored how Juncker’s “5 futures of Europe” can be used for assessing climate and DRR risks in Europe, and for designing and characterising effective response strategies, for three cases (heat and drought, fluvial flooding, coastal impacts).

Markus Leitner, Ingrid Coninx, Rob Swart & Tiago Capela Lourenço

PLACARD foresight workshop, facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

11–12 December 2018, European Commission, Brussels

The second PLACARD Foresight workshop showcased the potential of foresight methods in increasing climate resilience across Europe. Within the workshop we explored how Juncker’s “5 futures of Europe” can be used for assessing climate and DRR risks in Europe, and for designing and characterising effective response strategies, for three cases (heat and drought, fluvial flooding, coastal impacts).

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Facing the future of Europe’s Climate EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

  1. 1. FACING THE FUTURE OF EUROPE’S CLIMATE EU GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE RISKS AT A CROSSROADS 11–12 DECEMBER 2018, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, BRUSSELS FORESIGHT WORKSHOP Markus Leitner, Ingrid Coninx, Rob Swart and Tiago Capela Lourenco
  2. 2. | PLATFORM FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND RISK REDUCTION Key goal Establish a coordination and knowledge exchange platform for multi-stakeholder dialogue and consultation between CCA and DRR research, policy and practice communities across scales www.placard-network.eu
  3. 3. | Fragmented knowledge, institutions and policy l There is an overlap between activities of CCA & DRR communities. l Both reduce negative impacts of climate change and climate-related disasters, but through different actors and institutions, and with different time horizons, research methodologies and policy frameworks. l Lack of “actionable learning” - Reduced effectiveness of CCA & DRR l Information overload l Existing information is: l Not well communicated – Inefficient and leads too misinterpretation / conflicts l Not standardized - Weak coherence and consistency l Replication of work and redundancy l Poor coordination l Different purposes and perspectives è Confusion for users of information!!
  4. 4. How we seek to enhance the cooperation between CCA and DRR? l provide a common ‘space’ where CCA and DRR communities can come together, share experiences and create opportunities for collaboration; l facilitate communication and knowledge exchange between both communities; l support coordination and coherence of CCA and DRR research, policy and practice.
  5. 5. | WORKSHOP PURPOSE 5 Explore how Juncker’s “5 futures of Europe” can be used for assessing climate and DRR risks in Europe, and for designing and characterizing effective response strategies, for three cases (heat and drought, fluvial flooding, coastal impacts) Illustration by Bertram de Rooij
  6. 6. | WORKSHOP STRUCTURE – DAY 1 6 Session 1 l Setting the Scene l Overview on Foresight methods l 3 cases we are going to work on l 3 (total 5) Future scenarios for Europe and division into break-out groups Session 2 l Potential EU futures and their relevance for DRR and CCA l Discuss the scenarios and how they affect CCA and DRR policies in general (upsides and downsides) Social Event
  7. 7. | WORKSHOP STRUCTURE – DAY 2 7 Session 3 l From scenarios to action - How can our findings translate into CCA and DRR policies and practice? l What are the actions needed to be taken to avoid challenges and seize opportunities? Session 4 l What do you think is needed from your discussions to bring these policies further? l What are priority knowledge and research gaps that can be taken up in Horizon Europe, JPIs and national programmes? Closing Session
  8. 8. | KEYNOTE 1 8 Overview on Foresight methods and their potential for CCA & DRR (Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria)
  9. 9. | Why FORESIGHT? • Increasing resilience goes beyond science, technology or economic considerations - political, institutional, social and psychological factors matter – and, like climate, they also change over time! • Foresight (beyond scenario modelling) can play a role in connecting the two communities (DRR and CCA) • Achievements: • 1st Workshop “How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate- related hazards?” (Vienna, October 2016) • PLACARD report “Foresight for policy & decision-makers” • Policy brief, various blogs • Foresight Webinar, May 2018 9
  10. 10. | WHAT IS FORESIGHT? Systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to- long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. It does not aim to predict the future – to unveil it as if it were predetermined – but to help us build it. In Europe, it is used, inter alia, to plan funding of technology development and research. 10
  11. 11. | FORESIGHT IN DRR AND CCA Foresight in climate change policy and research is dominated by the development and analysis of scenarios quantified with complex (integrated assessment, climate and economic) models Foresight in Disaster Risk Reduction is still rare. When used (e.g., UK, NL), a wider set of drivers is usually considered, often in a more qualitative sense. 11
  12. 12. | Hypotheses that PLACARD likes to test (Qualitative) foresight methods can add diversity to the set of scenario/model-based tools dominant in the climate change adaptation debate. Foresight can support a greater emphasis on forward looking prevention action in disaster risk reduction. Foresight can offer opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to jointly work on solutions è which methods and tools for which questions? 12
  13. 13. |13 Foresight Report @ https://www.placard-network.eu/our-work/foresight-for-policymakers/ Methods and Tools
  14. 14. | Methods and Tools 14
  15. 15. | European Climate Change Adaptation Conference Conference themes: Ø Data, methods and approaches in CCA & DRR Ø Co-production of knowledge and solutions Ø Communication and decision support Ø Institutions, governance and citizens Ø Global challenges and CCA & DRR Ø Climate risk management and Resilience 28–31 May 2019 Lisbonwww.ecca2019.eu @ECCA2019 Registration v Early-bird registration: open until 1 March / Regular registration: open 2 March
  16. 16. | CONTACTS DI Markus Leitner +43 1 31304/3536 markus.leitner@umweltbundesamt.at Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Wien www.umweltbundesamt.at 16 PLACARD Website: https://www.placard-network.eu/

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