This document discusses global and European demographic trends since World War 2 using tables and graphs. It shows that the world population has grown from 2.7 billion in 1955 to over 7.6 billion in 2018, with Europe's share declining from 22.8% to 9.73% over this period. Fertility rates have fallen globally but remain above replacement level in parts of Africa and Asia, contributing to continued overall population growth despite an aging population and urbanization.

1. DEMOGRAAFILISEST DÜNAAMIKAST
NATUKE NUMBREID JA GRAAFIKUID
TUULI STEWART
EEST ROOMA KLUBIS
MAI 2018

2. ETTEKANNE VÕIKS OLLA ABIKS ARUSAAMAS, KUHU LIIGUME
Millest me
räägime?
1
Mis toimub?
2
Kas Eesti on
eriline?
3
Mis see on,
mida tahame?
4
Mis aitab, kui
miski ei aita?
5

3. DEMOGRAAFIA
 Demograafia on statistiline distsipliin
populatsioonidest, eriti inimestest. Kuna tegemist
on väga üldise distsipliiniga, siis saab see uurida
mistahes elusaid dünaamilisi populatsioone, st
selliseid, mis muutuvad ajas või ruumis.
 Demograafilised näitajad on antud populatsiooni
kvantitatiivsed näitajad
 Demograafia hõlmab populatsioonide suuruse,
struktuuri ja jaotuse uurimist ning neis
populatsioonides toimuvaid ruumilisi ja ajalisi
muutusi vastuseks sündivusele, migratsioonile,
vananemisele, surmadele jm.
Millest käib jutt? Alamdistsipliin statistikale

4. Mida
demograafia
uurib?
Maailma
demograafia vs
paikkondlik
Muutused
Ülesanne oli
müüa, nüüd –
koos hoida
Trendid ja
prognoosid
Mis asi on
generatsioon?
Kuidas see käitub?
Mida tahab? Mida
talt oodata?
Turud
Põhimõisted,
normid, väärtused
Mõjutusvahendid

5. Põlvkonnad
2 2
41
33
43
66
76 74
Praegu U.S./ miljonites
Praegu US/ M
Euroopa rahvaarv = 742 513 000 (USA ca pool sellest)
Sündinud
Plvk /
aastat
Põlvkond
Praegu
US/ M
1912-1921 9 The Depression Era 2
1922-1927 5 World War II 2
1928-1945 17 Post-War Cohort 41
1946-1954 8
Boomers I or The
Baby Boomers
33
1955-1965 10
Boomers II or
Generation Jones
43
1966-1976 10 Generation X 66
1977-1994 17
Generation Y, Echo
Boomers or
Millenniums
76
1995-2012 20 Generation Z 74
Kokku elus olevaid põlvkondi 337
** Siin ja edaspidi tõlkimata osad – tegemist on näidetega USA demograafiast.
Kõikidele sõnadele pole meie vasteid ei sisus ega terminites, printsiip aga kehtib **
Nende põlvkondade mõju ühiskonnas on erineva kaaluga ja muutuv

6. The Depression Era
• Born: 1912-1921
Coming of Age: 1930-1939
Age in 2018: 96 to 106
Current Population: 2 million (and declining
rapidly)
• Depression era individuals tend to be
conservative, compulsive savers, maintain low
debt and use more secure financial products like
CDs versus stocks.
• These individuals tend to feel a responsibility to
leave a legacy to their children. Tend to be
patriotic, oriented toward work before pleasure,
respect for authority, have a sense of moral
obligation.

7. World War II
• Born: 1922 to 1927
Coming of Age: 1940-1945
Age in 2018: 91-96
Current Population: 2 million (in
quickening decline)
• People in this cohort shared in a
common goal of defeating the Axis
powers.
• There was an accepted sense of
“deferment” among this group,
contrasted with the emphasis on “me” in
more recent (i.e. Gen X) cohorts.

8. Post-War Cohort
• Born: 1928-1945
Coming of Age: 1946-1963
Age in 2004: 73 to 90
Current Population: 41 million (declining)
• This generation had significant opportunities in jobs
and education as the War ended and a post-war
economic boom struck America.
• However, the growth in Cold War tensions, the
potential for nuclear war and other never before
seen threats led to levels of discomfort and
uncertainty throughout the generation.
• Members of this group value security, comfort, and
familiar, known activities and environments.

9. Boomers I or
the Baby Boomers
• Born: 1946-1954
Coming of Age: 1963-1972
Age in 2004: 64-72
Current Population: 33 million
• The first Boomer segment is bounded by
the Kennedy and Martin Luther King
assassinations, the Civil Rights movements
and the Vietnam War. Boomers I were in or
protested the War. Boomers 2 or the Jones
Generation missed the whole thing.
• Boomers I had good economic
opportunities and were largely optimistic
about the potential for America and their
own lives, the Vietnam War
notwithstanding.
• For a long time the Baby Boomers were defined as those born between
1945 and 1964. That would make the generation huge (76 million) and
encompass people who were 20 years apart in age. It didn’t compute to
have those born in 1964 compared with those born in 1946. Life
experiences were completely different.
Attitudes, behaviors and society were vastly different. In effect, all the
elements that help to define a cohort were violated by the broad span
of years originally included in the concept of the Baby Boomers.

10. Boomers II
or
Generation
Jones
• Born: 1955-1965
Coming of Age: 1973-1983
Age in 2018: 53 to 63
Current Population: 43 million
• This first post-Watergate generation lost much of its trust in
government and optimistic views the Boomers I
maintained. Economic struggles including the oil embargo
of 1979 reinforced a sense of “I’m out for me” and
narcissism and a focus on self-help and skepticism over
media and institutions is representative of attitudes of this
cohort.
• While Boomers I had Vietnam, Boomers II had AIDS as part
of their rites of passage. The youngest members of the
Boomer II generation in fact did not have the benefits of
the Boomer I class as many of the best jobs, opportunities,
housing etc. were taken by the larger and earlier group.
Both Gen X and Boomer II s suffer from this long shadow
cast by Boomers I.

11. Generation X
• Sometimes referred to as the “lost” generation, this was the first
generation of “latchkey” kids, exposed to lots of daycare and divorce.
Known as the generation with the lowest voting participation rate of
any generation, Gen Xers were quoted by Newsweek as “the generation
that dropped out without ever turning on the news or tuning in to the
social issues around them.”
• Gen X is often characterized by high levels of skepticism, “what’s in it
for me” attitudes and a reputation for some of the worst music to ever
gain popularity. Now, moving into adulthood William Morrow
(Generations) cited the childhood divorce of many Gen Xers as “one of
the most decisive experiences influencing how Gen Xers will shape their
own families”.
• Gen Xers are arguably the best educated generation with 29%
obtaining a bachelor’s degree or higher (6% higher than the previous
cohort). And, with that education and a growing maturity they are
starting to form families with a higher level of caution and pragmatism
than their parents demonstrated. Concerns run high over avoiding
broken homes, kids growing up without a parent around and financial
planning.
Born: 1966-1976
Coming of Age: 1988-1994
Age in 2004: 42 to 52
Current Population: 66 million

12. Generation Y, Echo
Boomers or Millenniums
• Born: 1977-1994
Coming of Age: 1998-2006
Age in 2018: 24 to 41
Current Population: 76 million
• The largest cohort since the Baby Boomers, their high numbers reflect their
births as that of their parent generation. The last of the Boomer Is and most
of the Boomer II s. Gen Y kids are known as incredibly sophisticated,
technology wise, immune to most traditional marketing and sales pitches…
as they not only grew up with it all, they’ve seen it all and been exposed to it
all since early childhood.
• Gen Y members are much more racially and ethnically diverse and they are
much more segmented as an audience aided by the rapid expansion in Cable
TV channels, satellite radio, the Internet, e-zines, etc.
• Gen Y are less brand loyal and the speed of the Internet has led the cohort to
be similarly flexible and changing in its fashion, style consciousness and
where and how it is communicated with.
• Gen Y kids often raised in dual income or single parent families have been
more involved in family purchases… everything from groceries to new cars.
One in nine Gen Yers has a credit card co-signed by a parent.

13. Generation Z
• Born: 1995-2012
Coming of Age: 2013-2020
Age in 2018: 6-23
Current Population: 74 million
and growing rapidly
• While we don’t know much about Gen
Z yet…we know a lot about the
environment they are growing up in.
This highly diverse environment will
make the grade schools of the next
generation the most diverse ever.
• Higher levels of technology will make
significant inroads in academics
allowing for customized instruction,
data mining of student histories to
enable pinpoint diagnostics and
remediation or accelerated
achievement opportunities.
• Gen Z kids will grow up with a highly
sophisticated media and computer
environment and will be more
Internet savvy and expert than their
Gen Y forerunners.
More to come on Gen Z… stay tuned.

14. Mida
demograafia
uurib?
Maailma
demograafia vs
paikkondlik
Muutused
Ülesanne oli
müüa, nüüd –
koos hoida
Trendid ja
prognoosid
Mis asi on
generatsioon?
Kuidas see käitub?
Mida tahab? Mida
talt oodata?
Turud
Põhimõisted,
normid, väärtused
Mõjutusvahendid

15. LUBATUD TABELID JA GRAAFIKUD
Maailma demograafia
 Rahvaarv maailmas
praegu (2018) kasvab
kiirusega umbes 1,09%
aastas (langedes 1,12%
2017 ja 1,14% aastal
2016).
 Praegune keskmine
rahvastiku juurdekasv on
hinnanguliselt
83 000 000 inimest
aastas.
1,0

16. MAAILMA KAART NAISTE FERTIILSUSE JÄRGI 2015
SÜNDIVUS-
INDEKSITE
ERINEVUS
MAAILMAS
(ST. LAPSI NAISE
KOHTA, KES ON
ELANUD OMA
FERTIILSUSAJA
LÕPUNI)
KESKMISELT LAST
ÜHE NAISE KOHTA

17. VÄLJAVAATED?
Prognoos rahvastiku
juurdekasvu
taltsutamiseks
Sündivusindeks maailmas
1950-2100
2015, ÜRO

18. Year Population
Yearly % Yearly
Migrants
(net)
Median
Age
Fertility
Rate
Density
(P/Km²)
Urban
Urban
Population
Europe's
World
Population
Europe
Change Change Pop % Share of Rank
World
Pop
2018 742 648 010 0.08 % 574 157 1 058 329 41.8 1.61 34 74.1 % 552 043 384 9.73 % 7 632 819 325 3
2017 742 073 853 0.08 % 626 695 1 058 329 41.8 1.61 34 74.2 % 550 414 585 9.8 % 7 550 262 101 3
2016 741 447 158 0.09 % 633 199 1 058 329 41.8 1.61 33 74.0 % 548 750 487 9.9 % 7 466 964 280 3
2015 740 813 959 0.10 % 730 076 810 747 41.6 1.60 33 73.8 % 547 065 703 10.6 % 7 383 008 820 3
2010 737 163 580 0.19 % 1 374 780 1 760 364 40.4 1.55 33 73.0 % 537 982 392 11.3 % 6 958 169 159 3
2005 730 289 682 0.08 % 617 749 1 710 154 39.1 1.43 33 72.0 % 525 634 776 11.9 % 6 542 159 383 3
2000 727 200 939 -0.02 % -176 731 742 665 37.7 1.43 33 71.1 % 516 827 426 12.6 % 6 145 006 989 3
1995 728 084 593 0.18 % 1 277 201 1 048 115 36.1 1.57 33 70.6 % 514 365 412 13.7 % 5 751 474 416 2
1990 721 698 587 0.38 % 2 694 354 533 762 34.6 1.81 33 70.1 % 505 990 967 14.8 % 5 330 943 460 2
1985 708 226 818 0.40 % 2 803 896 314 570 33.5 1.88 32 68.9 % 488 067 836 15.9 % 4 873 781 796 2
1980 694 207 337 0.49 % 3 320 504 391 545 32.6 1.98 31 67.5 % 468 429 458 17.0 % 4 458 411 534 2
1975 677 604 816 0.61 % 4 050 936 420 966 32.1 2.17 31 65.4 % 443 146 454 18.3 % 4 079 087 198 2
1970 657 350 134 0.68 % 4 403 580 -84 454 31.7 2.37 30 63.0 % 414 173 127 19.7 % 3 700 577 650 2
1965 635 332 234 0.95 % 5 881 359 -275 255 29.5 2.66 29 49.3 % 313 280 048 20.9 % 3 339 592 688 2
1960 605 925 437 0.98 % 5 763 015 -563 285 30.3 2.66 27 57.2 % 346 340 950 21.9 % 3 033 212 527 2
1955 577 110 360 0.99 % 5 547 068 -275 255 29.5 2.66 26 54.3 % 313 280 048 22.8 % 2 772 242 535 2
Euroopa demograafia peale II Maailmasõda
Country (or
dependency)
Population Yearly Net Density
Land
Area
Migrants Fert. Med. Urban World
2018 Change Change (P/Km²) (Km²) (net) Rate Age Pop % Share
Nigeria 195 875 237 2.61 % 4 988 926 215 910,77 -60 000 5.7 18 49% 2.57 %
Nigeria Population Forecast
Year Population
Yearly % Yearly
Migrant
s (net)
Median
Age
Fertility
Rate
Density
(P/Km²)
Urban
Urban
Population
Country's
Share of World
Population
Nigeria
Change Change Pop % World Pop
Global
Rank
2020 206 152 701 2.62 % 4 994 191 -60 000 18.1 5.42 226 52.7 % 108 711 170 2.64 % 7 795 482 309 7
2025 233 691 888 2.54 % 5 507 837 -60 000 18.5 5.08 257 56.7 % 132 547 150 2.85 % 8 185 613 757 5
2030 264 067 527 2.47 % 6 075 128 -60 000 19.2 4.74 290 60.3 % 159 240 806 3.09 % 8 551 198 644 5
2035 297 323 173 2.40 % 6 651 129 -60 000 19.9 4.41 326 63.4 % 188 612 714 3.34 % 8 892 701 940 5
2040 333 172 092 2.30 % 7 169 784 -60 000 20.7 4.10 366 66.3 % 220 824 256 3.62 % 9 210 337 004 4
2045 371 119 359 2.18 % 7 589 453 -60 000 21.5 3.81 407 69.1 % 256 584 400 3.90 % 9 504 209 572 4
2050 410 637 868 2.04 % 7 903 702 -60 000 22.4 3.55 451 72.0 % 295 479 827 4.20 % 9 771 822 753 3
Näide ühest „gasellist“ – miks meil on järsku nii palju „tudengeid“ just sealt

19. Euroopa tulevikuprognoos
Year Population
Yearly % Yearly
Migrants
(net)
Median
Age
Fertility
Rate
Density
(P/Km²)
Urban
Urban
Population
Europ
e's
World
Population
Europe
Change Change Pop %
Share
of
Rank
World
Pop
2020 743 390 045 0.07 % 515 217 1 058 329 42.7 1.62 34 74.7 % 555 106 331 10.1 % 7 795 482 309 3
2025 742 543 943 -0.02 % -169 220 856 909 43.9 1.66 34 75.6 % 561 571 444 9.5 % 8 185 613 757 3
2030 739 455 618 -0.08 % -617 665 910 942 45.1 1.69 33 76.7 % 566 970 179 9.0 % 8 551 198 644 3
2035 734 559 259 -0.13 % -979 272 911 942 46.2 1.72 33 77.8 % 571 694 852 8.3 % 8 892 701 940 4
2040 728 823 373 -0.16 % -1 147 177 911 941 46.9 1.75 33 79.0 % 575 852 164 8.2 % 9 210 337 004 4
2045 722 641 296 -0.17 % -1 236 415 911 939 46.9 1.77 33 80.1 % 579 072 565 7.8 % 9 504 209 572 4
2050 715 721 014 -0.19 % -1 384 056 911 898 46.6 1.78 32 81.2 % 581 112 912 7.5 % 9 771 822 753 4

20. Kontinentide
osakaal Maailma
populatsioonis -
prognoos kuni
2100

21. 000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
1950 -
1955
1960 -
1965
1970 -
1975
1980 -
1985
1990 -
1995
2000 -
2005
2010 -
2015
2020 -
2025
2030 -
2035
2040 -
2045
2050 -
2055
2060 -
2065
2070 -
2075
2080 -
2085
2090 -
2095
Total fertility (children per woman) Latvia
Estonia
Germany
Norway
Europe
Lithuania
Finland
Ireland
Tendents, mille
on käivitanud
söe liit –
mahajääjaid on
tõstetud,
kultuurid on
ühtlustatud

22. EESTI INIMARENGU
ARUANNE 2016-
2017
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Russia
Germany
U.K.
France
Ukraine
Belgium
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Net change of population 2018/ 1000
Migrants (net)
Net Change
Luule Sakkeus, Jerome McKibben, Allan Puur,
Leen Rahnu, Liili Abuladze
Pessimistlik
prognoos
Eestile aastaks
2100 – 536 000
elanikku

23. Eesti lastesõim 2030?
Kas see
hirmutab?
Miks?
Lahendus???

24. Londoni raudteejaama puhvet 2018

25. Mida
demograafia
uurib?
Maailma
demograafia vs
paikkondlik
Muutused
Ülesanne oli müüa,
nüüd – koos hoida
Trendid ja
prognoosid
Mis asi on
generatsioon?
Kuidas see käitub?
Mida tahab? Mida
talt oodata?
Turud
Põhimõisted,
normid, väärtused
Soodustused
Maksud
Seadused
Sellest kas järgmine kord või teeme koos kirjalikult

26. KASUTATUD ALLIKAD
 FactFish
 Eesti inimarengu aruanne 2016/2017. Eesti rändeajastul
 UN World Population Prospects 2017
 United States Census Bureau
 American Renaissance
 WJSchroer
 CIA, the Central Intelligence Agency
 My Modern Met
 Knoema
 Wikipedia
Head arutlemist!