1. WHAT IS NUCLEAR
MAINSTREAMING? DOES PAKISTAN
NEED IT?
DR TUGHRAL YAMIN
ASSOCIATE DEAN CIPS
NUST
PAPER READ AT THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PEACE & STABILITY
ORGANIZED BY FATIMA JINNAH WOMEN UNIVERSITY RAWALPINDI
22-24 SEPTEMBER 2016

2. WHAT ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
• NUCLEAR WEAPON. AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE THAT DERIVES
ITS DESTRUCTIVE FORCE FROM NUCLEAR REACTIONS,
EITHER FISSION (FISSION BOMB) OR A COMBINATION OF
FISSION AND FUSION (THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON).
• EFFECTS. A NUCLEAR DEVICE NO LARGER THAN
TRADITIONAL BOMBS CAN DEVASTATE AN ENTIRE CITY BY
BLAST, FIRE, AND RADIATION. NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE
CONSIDERED WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
• USE. NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE BEEN USED TWICE IN
HISTORY BY THE US AGAINST JAPAN
– ON AUGUST 6, 1945, A URANIUM GUN-TYPE FISSION
BOMB (LITTLE BOY) WAS DETONATED OVER THE
JAPANESE CITY OF HIROSHIMA
– ON AUGUST 9, A PLUTONIUM IMPLOSION-TYPE
FISSION BOMB (FAT MAN) WAS DETONATED OVER
THE JAPANESE CITY OF NAGASAKI.
– APPROXIMATELY 200,000 CIVILIANS AND MILITARY
PERSONNEL DIED
• ACADEMIC DEBATE. USE AND CONTROL OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS HAVE BEEN A MAJOR FOCUS OF
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS POLICY SINCE THEIR DEBUT

3. WHO ALL POSSESS NUCLEAR
WARHEADS?

4. WHAT ARE THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
DELIVERY MEANS?

5. HOW ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS SEEN?
• AS SYMBOLS OF POWER &
PRESTIGE
• AS MEANS OF DETERRENCE
• AS A SOURCE OF THREAT
BY:
– NON NUCLEAR WEAPON
STATES (NWS)
– NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES
(NNWS)
– PACIFISTS
– ENVIRONMENTALISTS

6. WHY INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR NON
PROLIFERATION REGIME?
• NUCLEAR NON PROLIFERATION REGIME HAS
BEEN CONSTRUCTED TO KEEP THE NUCLEAR
CLUB AN EXCLUSIVE ENTITY
• THE NWS WOULD NOT LIKE ANY HORIZONTAL
PROLIFERATION
• MAIN PILLARS OF THE REGIME ARE
– NPT
– CTBT
– FMCT

7. WHAT IS NPT?
• INTERNATIONAL TREATY (OPENED
FOR SIGNATURES 1 JULY 1968;
ENTERED INTO FORCE 5 MARCH
1970)
• 191 MEMBERS
• INDIA, ISRAEL, PAKISTAN &
SOUTH SUDAN ARE NON
SIGNATORIES
• DPRK OPTED OUT OF IT
• NPT RECOGNIZES TWO KINDS OF
SIGNATORIES: NWS & NNWS
• NWS AGREE NOT TO GIVE NW OR
NW TOOLS TO NNWS
• NNWS AGREE NOT TO RECEIVE
SUCH MATERIAL
• NNWS HAVE INALIENABLE TO
NUCLEAR POWER FOR CIVILIAN
USE
• NWS HAVE OBLIGATION TO
WORK TOWARDS EVENTUAL
ABOLITION OF NW & GENERAL
DISARMAMENT BUT NO
TIMETABLE GIVEN
• IAEA MONITORS NWS & NNWS
FOR COMPLIANCE & CAN
RECOMMEND SANCTIONS TO
UNSC IF A SIGNATORY IS FOUND
IN VIOLATION OF THE NPT

8. WHATS WRONG WITH THE
INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR NON
PROLIFERATION REGIME?
• IMMUTABLE. IT CANNOT BE CHANGED
• DISCRIMINATORY. THERE CAN BE NO NEW
MEMBERS
• UNREALISTIC. KEEPS NEW NWS STATES OUT
• PARTIAL. WESTERN NATIONS WOULD LIKE TO
BRING INDIA INTO THE NUCLEAR MAIN
STREAM BUT NOT PAKISTAN

9. NON PROLIFERATION DOUBLE
STANDARDS

10. HOW HAS THE WEST REACTED TO
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM?
• DEMANDS TO CONTROL, FREEZE & ROLL BACK
• SANCTIONS (SYMINGTON, PRESSLER & GLEN
AMMENDMENTS)
• PROPAGANDA REGARDING
– NUCLEAR BLACK MARKET
– THE SAFETY & SECURITY OF ITS NUCLEAR
– FAST GROWTH OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL
• DOUBLE STANDARDS AS COMPARED TO INDIA
• MENU FOR BECOMING A NUCLEAR MAINSTREAM
NATION
• ADVICE TO EXERCISE NUCLEAR RESTRAINT

11. HOW THE WEST VIEWS INDIA’S
STATUS AS A NUCLEAR STATE?
• ACCEPTS IT AS A RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE
• US CONCLUDED CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH INDIA
IN 2005
• SPECIAL WAIVER GRANTED BY NSG IN 2008
• CIVIL NUCLEAR DEALS WITH SEVERAL OTHER
COUNTRIES
• US SUPPORTIVE OF INDIAN NSG BID
• MADE MEMBER OF MTCR

12. HOW PAKISTAN HAS BEEN TREATED
IN THE NUCLEAR WORLD?
• LEFT OUT IN THE COLD
• NO COUNTRY WILLING TO CONCLUDE A CIVIL NUCLEAR
DEAL
• NOT MANY SUPPORTERS FOR PAKISTAN’S NSG BID
• PRESSURE IN THE CD WITH REFERENCE TO VETO ON
FMCT
• CONSTANT PROPOGANDA AGAINST
– NUCLEAR SAFETY & SECURITY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
– RATE OF GROWTH OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL
– TNWs

13. A Normal
NUCLEAR PAKISTAN
by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon
© Copyright 2015 Stimson Center and
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
All rights reserved.

14. WESTERN PERCEPTIONS OF A
NORMAL NUCLEAR PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN SEEKS TO BE VIEWED AS A NORMAL
STATE POSSESSING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AS
EXEMPLIFIED BY:
• MEMBERSHIP IN THE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS
GROUP (NSG)
• A CIVIL-NUCLEAR COOPERATION AGREEMENT
SIMILAR TO THE ONE ACCORDED TO INDIA

15. HOW DOES THE WEST WANT TO
MAINSTREAM A NUCLEAR PAKISTAN?
• SHIFT DECLARATORY POLICY FROM “FULL SPECTRUM” TO “STRATEGIC
DETERRENCE” (MEANING: GIVE UP THE SHORT RANGE BATTLEFIELD
NUCLEAR WEAPONS)
• COMMIT TO A RECESSED DETERRENCE POSTURE AND LIMIT PRODUCTION
OF SHORTRANGE DELIVERY VEHICLES AND TNWs (MEANING: DO NOT
HAVE A READY ARSENAL. DEMATE ALL NUCLEAR WARHEADS FROM
DELIVERY MEANS SUCH AS NUCLEAR CAPABLE MISSILES AND AIRPLANES
AT ALL TIMES)
• LIFT VETO ON FISSILE MATERIAL CUTOFF TREATY (FMCT) NEGOTIATIONS
AND REDUCE OR STOP FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION (MEANING: SIGN
FMCT WITHOUT DEMANDING THAT THE EXISTING FISSILE MATERIAL
STOCKS BE ACCOUNTED FOR)
• SEPARATE CIVILIAN AND MILITARY NUCLEAR FACILITIES (MEANING: BRING
ALL YOUR NUCLEAR REACTORS UNDER IAEA SAFEGUARDS).
• SIGN THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY (CTBT) WITHOUT WAITING
FOR INDIA (MEANING: UNILATERALLY GIVE UP YOUR RIGHT TO TEST
NUCLEAR WEAPONS)

16. WHAT ARE PAKISTAN’S OPTIONS?
• AGREE TO ALL DEMANDS AND BECOME
ACCEPTABLE AS A NUCLEAR STATE
• REJECT ALL PRECONDITIONS AND REMAIN A
NUCLEAR OUTLIER
• NEGOTIATE ON CERTAIN DEMANDS
• PREPARE A STRONG CASE AND PURSUE IT
STEADFASTLY WITH LONG TERM AIMS

17. WHAT CAN BE NEGOTIATED & WHAT
CAN’T BE?
YES MAY BE NOT AT ALL
NATIONAL SAFETY
& SECURITY
DETERRENCE
CAPABILITY
NUCLEAR POLICY
TNWs
FMCT/FMT
CTBT
SEPARATE CIVIL
FROM MILITARY
REACTORS

19. INDIA’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
• JAWAHARLAL NEHRU (26 JUNE 1946)
ANNOUNCED: “AS LONG AS THE WORLD IS
CONSTITUTED AS IT IS, EVERY COUNTRY WILL
HAVE TO DEVISE AND USE THE LATEST DEVICES
FOR ITS PROTECTION. I HAVE NO DOUBT INDIA
WILL DEVELOP HER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES AND
I HOPE INDIAN SCIENTISTS WILL USE THE ATOMIC
FORCE FOR CONSTRUCTIVE PURPOSES. BUT IF
INDIA IS THREATENED, SHE WILL INEVITABLY TRY
TO DEFEND HERSELF BY ALL MEANS AT HER
DISPOSAL.”

20. • INDIA'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM STARTED ON MARCH 1944 AND ITS THREE-
STAGE EFFORTS IN TECHNOLOGY WERE ESTABLISHED BY DR. HOMI
BHABHA WHEN HE FOUNDED THE NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER,
THE INSTITUTE OF FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH.
• INDIA'S LOSS OF TERRITORY TO CHINA IN A BRIEF HIMALAYAN BORDER
WAR IN OCTOBER 1962, PROVIDED THE NEW DELHI GOVERNMENT
IMPETUS FOR DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A MEANS OF
DETERRING POTENTIAL CHINESE AGGRESSION.
• INDIA FIRST TESTED A NUCLEAR DEVICE IN 1974 (SMILING BUDDHA),
WHICH IT CALLED A "PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSION." THE TEST USED
PLUTONIUM PRODUCED IN THE CANADIAN-SUPPLIED CIRUS REACTOR,
AND RAISED CONCERNS THAT NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIED FOR
PEACEFUL PURPOSES COULD BE DIVERTED TO WEAPONS PURPOSES.
• EXPLODES NUCLEAR DEVICE IN MAY 1998
• CONCLUDES CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH USA IN 2005
• SPECIAL WAIVER GIVEN BY IAEA IN 2008
• MADE A MEMBER OF THE MRCR IN 2016
• MADE AN UNSUCCESSFUL BID FOR ENTRY INTO NSG IN 2016