CFTC: Speculative positioning as of February 1st
Source: Bloomberg

Combined speculative futures positions across sectors
2

Speculative long futures rising by five percent.
 Last week hedge funds and money managers added five percent or 94,000 lots of futures to already
elevated long positions. All sectors apart from metals saw an increase.
 During the same time period investors added to their dollar short positions with the accumulated
dollar short on IMM futures now standing at USD 30 billion. This is getting close to last year's peak
short dollar position of -35.16 billion
 Energy: The long WTI crude position rose by 21k as spill over buying from the unrest in North Africa
and from Brent crude which broke above USD 100.
 Grains: Investors continue to add to speculative long positions in the grain sector which in terms of
futures lots now represents 56 percent of the total speculative position across all sectors. Last week
saw a very strong 35k increase in the soy complex while wheat (+4k) and corn (+16k) also rose.
 Softs: Panic buying of sugar ahead of cyclone Yaris triggered a 14k rise in sugar positions.
 Metals: Small reductions in gold and silver offset by rise in copper with the price on London Metal
Exchange reaching a new record high above USD 10,000 per metric tons.
 Background information: The Commitments of Traders is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
every Friday with data from the previous Tuesday. It comprises the holdings of participants in various U.S. futures
markets split into "commercial" and "non commercial" holdings. The non commercial or speculative holding are typically
institutional investors such as hedge funds and CTAs. The above chart tracks a total of 25 different commodities split into
sectors.
3

Metals: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Gold Silver
280.000 55.000
260.000 50.000
240.000 45.000
220.000 40.000
200.000 35.000
180.000 30.000
160.000 25.000
140.000 20.000
Platinum Copper
35.000 35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
25.000 20.000
20.000 15.000
10.000
15.000
5.000
10.000 -
4

Energy: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
WTI Crude (NYM+ICE) Natural Gas
250.000 -130.000
200.000 -150.000
150.000 -170.000
100.000 -190.000
50.000 -210.000
- -230.000
Heating Oil Gasoline
50.000
90.000
40.000 80.000
30.000 70.000
20.000 60.000
50.000
10.000
40.000
- 30.000
-10.000 20.000
10.000
-20.000
5

Softs: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Sugar Coffee
200.000
50.000
180.000
40.000
160.000
30.000
140.000
20.000
120.000
10.000
100.000
-
80.000
Cocoa Orange Juice
40.000 18.000
30.000 16.000
14.000
20.000
12.000
10.000
10.000
- 8.000
-10.000 6.000
6

Misc: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Cotton Feeder cattle
60.000 20.000
50.000 15.000
40.000
10.000
30.000
5.000
20.000
10.000 -
- -5.000
Live Cattle
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
-
-20.000
7

Grains: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Soybeans Wheat (CBT+KCB+MGE) Corn
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
-
-100.000
23/02/10 23/03/10 23/04/10 23/05/10 23/06/10 23/07/10 23/08/10 23/09/10 23/10/10 23/11/10 23/12/10 23/01/11
8

Disclaimer
NON-INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH
This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.
Further it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Saxo Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform
services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer
mentioned herein.
None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to
make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This material is produced for marketing and/or informational purposes only
and Saxo Bank A/S and its owners, subsidiaries and affiliates whether acting directly or through branch offices (“Saxo Bank”) make no representation or
warranty, and assume no liability, for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided herein. In providing this material Saxo Bank has not
taken into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives, special investment goals, financial situation, and specific needs and demands and
nothing herein is intended as a recommendation for any recipient to invest or divest in a particular manner and Saxo Bank assumes no liability for any
recipient sustaining a loss from trading in accordance with a perceived recommendation. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and
losses. In particular investments in leveraged products, such as but not limited to foreign exchange, derivates and commodities can be very speculative
and profits and losses may fluctuate both violently and rapidly. Speculative trading is not suitable for all investors and all recipients should carefully
consider their financial situation and consult financial advisor(s) in order to understand the risks involved and ensure the suitability of their situation
prior to making any investment, divestment or entering into any transaction. Any mentioning herein, if any, of any risk may not be, and should not be
considered to be, neither a comprehensive disclosure or risks nor a comprehensive description such risks. Any expression of opinion may be personal to
the author and may not reflect the opinion of Saxo Bank and all expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice (neither prior nor
subsequent).
Futures
Futures contracts are traded on margin enabling you to leverage a small margin deposit for a much greater market effect. You will be required to deposit
initial margin to initiate a position. You must also maintain the Maintenance Margins listed per contract in your account at all times. If the funds in an
account fall below this margin, clients will be subject to a margin call to either deposit more funds to cover positions or close positions. You will usually
be notified of this through our trading platform and via e-mail. If you fail to do so as required, your position may be closed or liquidated.
Saxo Bank does not support physical delivery of the underlying security on expiry of a futures contract. You should ensure that you are aware of the expiry
and first notice dates (FND) of any futures contracts and that you close these at the appropriate time. If the FND is before the expiry date, positions
need to be closed the day before the FND. If the expiry date is before the FND positions need to be closed no later than on the expiry date. If futures
positions are not closed before the relevant date, Saxo Bank will close the position on your behalf at the first available opportunity at the prevailing
market rate. You will bear any resulting costs, gains or losses. Our Futures do not provide any right to the underlying instruments.
In certain cases, our, Futures are over-the-counter (OTC) instrument. Each Future trade that you enter into on our trading service results in you entering a
contract with us; these contracts can only be closed with us and are not transferable to any other person.
9