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Commodities on the radar - Weekly Commodity Update 1.2.11

  1. CFTC: Speculative positioning as of February 1st Source: Bloomberg
  2. Combined speculative futures positions across sectors 2
  3. Speculative long futures rising by five percent.  Last week hedge funds and money managers added five percent or 94,000 lots of futures to already elevated long positions. All sectors apart from metals saw an increase.  During the same time period investors added to their dollar short positions with the accumulated dollar short on IMM futures now standing at USD 30 billion. This is getting close to last year's peak short dollar position of -35.16 billion  Energy: The long WTI crude position rose by 21k as spill over buying from the unrest in North Africa and from Brent crude which broke above USD 100.  Grains: Investors continue to add to speculative long positions in the grain sector which in terms of futures lots now represents 56 percent of the total speculative position across all sectors. Last week saw a very strong 35k increase in the soy complex while wheat (+4k) and corn (+16k) also rose.  Softs: Panic buying of sugar ahead of cyclone Yaris triggered a 14k rise in sugar positions.  Metals: Small reductions in gold and silver offset by rise in copper with the price on London Metal Exchange reaching a new record high above USD 10,000 per metric tons.  Background information: The Commitments of Traders is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission every Friday with data from the previous Tuesday. It comprises the holdings of participants in various U.S. futures markets split into "commercial" and "non commercial" holdings. The non commercial or speculative holding are typically institutional investors such as hedge funds and CTAs. The above chart tracks a total of 25 different commodities split into sectors. 3
  4. Metals: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Gold Silver 280.000 55.000 260.000 50.000 240.000 45.000 220.000 40.000 200.000 35.000 180.000 30.000 160.000 25.000 140.000 20.000 Platinum Copper 35.000 35.000 30.000 30.000 25.000 25.000 20.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 15.000 5.000 10.000 - 4
  5. Energy: CFTC Speculative positions in lots WTI Crude (NYM+ICE) Natural Gas 250.000 -130.000 200.000 -150.000 150.000 -170.000 100.000 -190.000 50.000 -210.000 - -230.000 Heating Oil Gasoline 50.000 90.000 40.000 80.000 30.000 70.000 20.000 60.000 50.000 10.000 40.000 - 30.000 -10.000 20.000 10.000 -20.000 5
  6. Softs: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Sugar Coffee 200.000 50.000 180.000 40.000 160.000 30.000 140.000 20.000 120.000 10.000 100.000 - 80.000 Cocoa Orange Juice 40.000 18.000 30.000 16.000 14.000 20.000 12.000 10.000 10.000 - 8.000 -10.000 6.000 6
  7. Misc: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Cotton Feeder cattle 60.000 20.000 50.000 15.000 40.000 10.000 30.000 5.000 20.000 10.000 - - -5.000 Live Cattle 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 - -20.000 7
  8. Grains: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Soybeans Wheat (CBT+KCB+MGE) Corn 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 - -100.000 23/02/10 23/03/10 23/04/10 23/05/10 23/06/10 23/07/10 23/08/10 23/09/10 23/10/10 23/11/10 23/12/10 23/01/11 8
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