Net Zero and the impact of electrification

T
Strategy&
June 2020
Net Zero and the impact
of electrification
Strategy&
Net Zero: investment drivers are strengthening
GIIA webinar
Source: Strategy& Analysis
Date
2
Policy and regulation
Consumer demand
Corporate demand
Technology and infrastructure
Investor demand
Global deal on climate, rapidly strengthening national regulation and legislation including over one
hundred countries committing to become “net zero by 2050”. COVID-19 impact may be positive
Over $35Tn AUM (one third of tracked AUM, and counting) committing to portfolio decarbonisation
targets and/or investing in low carbon funds and holdings.
The impact of social influencers such as Greta Thunberg and David Attenborough is finally starting to
increase the understanding and drive a demand for more climate-friendly products and services
Net zero transformation commitments from over 200 major corporations, and growing. Companies
are not just looking to buy in decarbonisation solutions but also to invest in corporate VC themselves
Technology advances and infrastructure investment have driven costs down and new technologies - like
AI, cloud, and sensors - are enabling scaling, optimisation and entirely new business models.
Strategy&
Action is needed across sectors: in the UK, emission reductions have
been happening already, but are not evenly spread
UK GHG emissions
Note: 1) Please see ‘Additional materials‘ for further breakdown of contributors by sector
Source: BEIS (2020) 3
GIIA webinar June 2020
Emissions in 2018
MtCO2e
Change in emissions
2013 - 2018
23%
21%
18%
13%
10%
7%
7%
Other3
Surface transport
Buildings
Industry
Power
Agriculture2
Aviation
& shipping
Total:
4911
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Surface
transport
Shipping
F-gases
Aviation
Buildings
Waste
Agriculture
Industry
Power
Comparing across
sectors, the Power
sector has achieved the
largest reduction in
emissions: c.56%
Strategy&
The UK transition will require investments of £50-70bn p.a.
UK Net Zero investment requirement
GIIA webinar
Source: BEIS, CCC, IPPR, press search
June 2020
4
50
70
CCC BEIS IPPR
~50
Investment requirement/cost to deliver on UK Net Zero targets
£bn p.a.
Power
Building
Transport
Industry
Clean energy is projected to required an
additional c.£10bn p.a.
CCC estimates that buildings will require c.£15-
20bn p.a. higher investment levels in 2050 than
would have been required under business-as-
usual
To support a electrified or alternative fuel
transport system, significant investments
are required into new supporting
infrastructure
Largely dependent on higher adoption of
carbon-capture storage and a switch to
hydrogen use. IPPR estimates c. 2-5bn p.a.
investment required
Strategy&
2. Role of electrification &
the impact on investment
GIIA webinar June 2020
5
Strategy&
Higher power demand from electrification of heat and transport will have number of implications
• Continued need for
more clean power
generation capacity
• Reducing subsidies
mean new business
models required for
investment
• Grid reinforcement
• Anticipatory
investment
• Smarter grid
infrastructure and
systems
• DNOs now managing
two-way flows and
new load patterns
• The system requires
flexible power sources
• Batteries
• Peaking plants
• Interconnectors
• Other storage
• CCGTs
• Demand side
management and
response technology
to run the system
efficiently: matching
demand with supply
• Aggregation of
distributed energy
sources
• Distributed power
generation will be a
major feature of new
power sources
• Centralised fossil
fuelled power plants
are increasingly less
viable
GIIA webinar June 2020
6
Power sector infrastructure
Low carbon power Grid infrastructure Flexibility Demand side Distributed power
Strategy&
Buildings and Industry
Substitution of electricity for heat in buildings and more dynamic energy management
1
Heat pumps
• Alongside alternatives such as
hydrogen, biogas and heat networks
• Particularly in new-build domestic
premises
• Retrofit may lead to reduced demand
for gas
2
On-site generation
• Increased reliance on power as key
source of energy
• Desire for greater energy security
alongside
• Reducing costs of technology
3
Energy Services
• Increased electrification drives a
desire to reduce power costs
• Energy efficient technologies
• Greater optimisation of on-site energy
usage
4
Smart Meters
• Combined with time of use tariffs,
smart meters can lead to lower bills –
particularly relevant as EVs become
more mainstream
• Increased home working may drive
greater take-up in domestic premises
GIIA webinar June 2020
7
Strategy&
Transport infrastructure
Demand for EVs is rising and new charging infrastructure will replace need for conventional fuelling
GIIA webinar
Sources: (1) European Environment Agency recommends 10 EVs per charging point (“Electric Vehicles in Europe” report), currently there are 17 EVs per connector based on
ZapMap statistics. (2) “The Provision of Rapid Charging Points in London”, Analytically driven 2017 estimates £40 - £50k per device, and the TfL press release “Electric
Vehicle Scheme” implies £60k a device. (3) PwC 2018 report “Charging Ahead”. Calculation assumes that each EV owner who chargers at home with have one charging
device. (4) Assumption based on market data points, including research from EV Charging Solutions website.
June 2020
8
Cost of a home
charging device(4)
Key investment
themes:
1. Different business
models for different
charging locations
2. Most charging will
take place at home
but public chargers
required at
destinations and
SRN
3. Fleet charging
presents greatest
near-term
opportunity
0
4
8
12
16
20
Road to Zero
Two degrees - National Grid
Steady progression - National Grid
0
4
8
12
16
20
Road to Zero
Two degrees - National Grid
Steady progression - National Grid
Home charging capex investment
£bn
Public charging capex investment
£bn
Thank you
strategyand.pwc.com
© 2020 PwC. All rights reserved.
PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc.com/structure for further details.
Disclaimer: This content is general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.
9
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Net Zero and the impact of electrification

  • 1. Strategy& June 2020 Net Zero and the impact of electrification
  • 2. Strategy& Net Zero: investment drivers are strengthening GIIA webinar Source: Strategy& Analysis Date 2 Policy and regulation Consumer demand Corporate demand Technology and infrastructure Investor demand Global deal on climate, rapidly strengthening national regulation and legislation including over one hundred countries committing to become “net zero by 2050”. COVID-19 impact may be positive Over $35Tn AUM (one third of tracked AUM, and counting) committing to portfolio decarbonisation targets and/or investing in low carbon funds and holdings. The impact of social influencers such as Greta Thunberg and David Attenborough is finally starting to increase the understanding and drive a demand for more climate-friendly products and services Net zero transformation commitments from over 200 major corporations, and growing. Companies are not just looking to buy in decarbonisation solutions but also to invest in corporate VC themselves Technology advances and infrastructure investment have driven costs down and new technologies - like AI, cloud, and sensors - are enabling scaling, optimisation and entirely new business models.
  • 3. Strategy& Action is needed across sectors: in the UK, emission reductions have been happening already, but are not evenly spread UK GHG emissions Note: 1) Please see ‘Additional materials‘ for further breakdown of contributors by sector Source: BEIS (2020) 3 GIIA webinar June 2020 Emissions in 2018 MtCO2e Change in emissions 2013 - 2018 23% 21% 18% 13% 10% 7% 7% Other3 Surface transport Buildings Industry Power Agriculture2 Aviation & shipping Total: 4911 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% Surface transport Shipping F-gases Aviation Buildings Waste Agriculture Industry Power Comparing across sectors, the Power sector has achieved the largest reduction in emissions: c.56%
  • 4. Strategy& The UK transition will require investments of £50-70bn p.a. UK Net Zero investment requirement GIIA webinar Source: BEIS, CCC, IPPR, press search June 2020 4 50 70 CCC BEIS IPPR ~50 Investment requirement/cost to deliver on UK Net Zero targets £bn p.a. Power Building Transport Industry Clean energy is projected to required an additional c.£10bn p.a. CCC estimates that buildings will require c.£15- 20bn p.a. higher investment levels in 2050 than would have been required under business-as- usual To support a electrified or alternative fuel transport system, significant investments are required into new supporting infrastructure Largely dependent on higher adoption of carbon-capture storage and a switch to hydrogen use. IPPR estimates c. 2-5bn p.a. investment required
  • 5. Strategy& 2. Role of electrification & the impact on investment GIIA webinar June 2020 5
  • 6. Strategy& Higher power demand from electrification of heat and transport will have number of implications • Continued need for more clean power generation capacity • Reducing subsidies mean new business models required for investment • Grid reinforcement • Anticipatory investment • Smarter grid infrastructure and systems • DNOs now managing two-way flows and new load patterns • The system requires flexible power sources • Batteries • Peaking plants • Interconnectors • Other storage • CCGTs • Demand side management and response technology to run the system efficiently: matching demand with supply • Aggregation of distributed energy sources • Distributed power generation will be a major feature of new power sources • Centralised fossil fuelled power plants are increasingly less viable GIIA webinar June 2020 6 Power sector infrastructure Low carbon power Grid infrastructure Flexibility Demand side Distributed power
  • 7. Strategy& Buildings and Industry Substitution of electricity for heat in buildings and more dynamic energy management 1 Heat pumps • Alongside alternatives such as hydrogen, biogas and heat networks • Particularly in new-build domestic premises • Retrofit may lead to reduced demand for gas 2 On-site generation • Increased reliance on power as key source of energy • Desire for greater energy security alongside • Reducing costs of technology 3 Energy Services • Increased electrification drives a desire to reduce power costs • Energy efficient technologies • Greater optimisation of on-site energy usage 4 Smart Meters • Combined with time of use tariffs, smart meters can lead to lower bills – particularly relevant as EVs become more mainstream • Increased home working may drive greater take-up in domestic premises GIIA webinar June 2020 7
  • 8. Strategy& Transport infrastructure Demand for EVs is rising and new charging infrastructure will replace need for conventional fuelling GIIA webinar Sources: (1) European Environment Agency recommends 10 EVs per charging point (“Electric Vehicles in Europe” report), currently there are 17 EVs per connector based on ZapMap statistics. (2) “The Provision of Rapid Charging Points in London”, Analytically driven 2017 estimates £40 - £50k per device, and the TfL press release “Electric Vehicle Scheme” implies £60k a device. (3) PwC 2018 report “Charging Ahead”. Calculation assumes that each EV owner who chargers at home with have one charging device. (4) Assumption based on market data points, including research from EV Charging Solutions website. June 2020 8 Cost of a home charging device(4) Key investment themes: 1. Different business models for different charging locations 2. Most charging will take place at home but public chargers required at destinations and SRN 3. Fleet charging presents greatest near-term opportunity 0 4 8 12 16 20 Road to Zero Two degrees - National Grid Steady progression - National Grid 0 4 8 12 16 20 Road to Zero Two degrees - National Grid Steady progression - National Grid Home charging capex investment £bn Public charging capex investment £bn
  • 9. Thank you strategyand.pwc.com © 2020 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc.com/structure for further details. Disclaimer: This content is general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. 9