Western Australian economic and residential property market trends

1. June 2016RPS Group
The Western Australian Economy and
Property Markets
Chart Pack | June 2016
PO Box 465, Subiaco
Western Australia 6904
W rpsgroup.com.au
Contact
WA Head Office p. +61 8 9211 1111
Level 2, 27-31 Troode Street w. www.rpsgroup.com.au
WEST PERTH WA 6005
Tim Connoley
Technical Director - Economics
About Economics at RPS
RPS is an international consultancy providing world-class local
solutions in energy and resources, infrastructure, environment and
urban growth. Our Economics team is well positioned to undertake
comprehensive analysis of a range of business, community and
government issues and projects. Our key areas of expertise include:
• Urban Economics
• Socio-Economics
• Economic Development
• Regulatory Economics
• Corporate Strategy and Advice

2. RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016 2
Figure 1 - Population Change,Western Australia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
-4,000
1,000
6,000
11,000
16,000
21,000
26,000
31,000
PopulationGrowth(p.a.)
ChangeinPopulation(quarterly)
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
Net Interstate Migration Annual Growth Source: ABS 3101.0, RPS Group
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
UnemploymentRate
ChangeinEmployment(monthly)
Change in Employment (Trend)
Unemployment Rate (Trend)
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj.) Source: ABS 6202.0, RPS Group
Figure 2 - Labour Market,Western Australia
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.)
Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
HomeLoanRates(p.a.)
Standard Variable Three-Year Fixed
Source: RBA, RPS Group
Figure 3 - RetailTurnover
Figure 5 - Mortgage Rates,Australia
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Food Household
Goods
Department
Stores
Other Retailing Take Away/
Restaurants
RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.)
Previous 12 Months Ten-Year Average
Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17
CashRate(%)
27-Jan 14-Apr-16 Source: ASX, RPS Group
Figure 6 - Cash Rate Expectations,Australia
Figure 4 - RetailTurnover,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy

3. 3RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 7 - Merchandise Exports,Western Australia
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
IronOrePrice($US/tonne)
MerhcandiseExports($millions/month)
Merchandise Exports Iron Ore Price
62% FE spot
(CFR Tianjin port)
Source: ABS 5368.0, RPS Group
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
WagePriceGrowth(p.a.)
Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 6345.0, RPS Group
Figure 8 - Wage Price Index
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
ConsumerPriceIndexGrowth(p.a.)
Perth Australia Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Non-ResidentialBuildingWork($million/quarter)
Work Done Building Approvals Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 9 - Consumer Price Index
Figure 11 - Non-Residential Construction,WA
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Food
Housing
Education
Accommodation
& Travel
Transport
Health
Household Equipment
& Services
Utilities
Inflation (p.a.)
Ten-year average (p.a.) Previous 12 Months Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800
Commercial
Industrial
Education
Aged Care
Health
Entertainment
& Recreation
Short Stay
Accommodation
Value of Work ($ millions)
Previous 12 Months Five-Year Average Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 12 - Non-Residential Construction,WA
Figure 10 - Inflation,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy

4. 4RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 13 - Engineering Work,Western Australia
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
EngineeringWork($m/quarter,price-adjusted)
Seasonally Adjusted Trend Source: ABS 8762.0, RPS Group
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
PrivateCapitalExpenditure($millionsp.a.)
Mining Manufacturing Other Industries Source: ABS 5625.0, RPS Group
Figure 14 - Private Capital Expenditure,WA
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
ExplorationExpenditure($millions/quarter)
Mining Petroleum Source: ABS 8412.0, RPS Group
Figure 15 - Exploration Expenditure,Western
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
ChangeinExpenditure(p.a.)
State Final Demand Private Investment
Private Consumption Public Expenditure Source: ABS 5206.0, RPS Group
Figure 16 - Economic Growth,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy

5. 5RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 17 & 18 - Owner Occupier Housing Finance,Western Australia
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly)
Established Dwellings New Dwellings Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly)
Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
HomeLoanCommitments($millions/month)
Investors Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
Figure 19 - Housing FinanceValue,Western Australia
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
FirstHomeOwnerGrantApplications(monthly)
Established Homes New Dwellings Source: Treasury (WA), RPS Group
Figure 20 - First Home Buyers,Western Australia
Residential Property | WA
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
ResidentialConstruction(dwellingsp.a.)
Houses Commenced Dwellings Commenced
Houses Completed Dwellings Completed Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 21 - Residential Construction,Western Australia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month)
Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 22 - Building Approvals,Western Australia

6. 6RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
ResidentialPropertyListings(quarterly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 23 - Property Listings, Metropolitan Perth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
ResidentialVacantLandListings(monthly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 24 - Land Listings, Metropolitan Perth
Residential Property | Perth
Figure 25 - Property Sales, Metropolitan Perth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Mulit-UnitDwellingSales(weekly)
HouseSales(weekly)
Houses Sold Houses Trend Units Trend Units Sold Source: REIWA, RPS Group
0
50
100
150
200
250
DeveloperLotSalesIndex(weekly)
Sales Trend Rolling Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot, RPS Group
Figure 26 - Developer Land Sales, Greater Perth
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month)
Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 27 - Building Approvals, Greater Perth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
NumberofLots(annualised)
Applications Lodged Conditional Approvals Final Approvals
Source: WAPC, RPS Group
Figure 28 - Residential Subdivisions, Greater Perth