DIGITAL & IoT: A TALE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE-MORES- McKinsey & Company

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DIGITAL & IoT:
A TALE OF THE
HAVES AND
HAVE-MORES

McKinsey & Company | 1
Today’s discussion
SOURCE: Source
▪ONE: Digital matters and is changing the way we do
business profoundly
▪TWO: Digitization in playing out differently across
sectors
▪THREE: IoT is integral to Digital
▪FOUR: Institutions have to learn to tap value from
Digital

ONE: DIGITAL
MATTERS

13%
95%
90%
84%
76%
73%
64%
56%
51%
40%
98%
28%
17%
Digitization now touches every aspect of the economy
Retail via e-commerce
Investment in ICT as a share of total investment
Payments made digitally
Adults with smartphones
Households with broadband
Adults who use social media
Taxes that are e-filed
Adults who use the Internet
Millennials who regularly use e-mail
Households subscribing to online video streaming services
Freelancers who have done work online
Americans who get news from online aggregators
Americans with access to high-speed wireless Internet
PERCENT OF US ECONOMY IMPACTED BY DIGITIZATION

Digital technologies are growing at an exponential rate
SOURCE: Kliner-Perkins; McKinsey
Some facts to ponder….
~5+ zetabytes of data in the digital universe
$0.02/GB data storage
9.1 billion networked devices by 2019
1.8 billion photos shared daily
50 billion WhatsApp messages exchanged daily

Industries on the digital frontier among fastest profit gainers
GROWTH IN PROFIT MARGIN VS. SOFTWARE INTENSITY,
SELECT US NON-FINANCIAL INDUSTRIES
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
-1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0
Media and
Information
Extraction
IT hardware
Retail
Consumer goods
Machinery production
Automobile
Utilities
Logistics and transportation
IT and
business
services
Healthcare
Change in software intensity1
1993 vs. 2013 (3-year averages)
Change in post-tax profit margin
1993 vs. 2013 (3-year averages)
0.7
3.4

Across industries, in the digital universe we have observed
6 major forces of disruption
SOURCE: McKinsey Digital; McKinsey Strategy and Corporate Finance practice
Consumer power is
paramount (Zynga)
New capabilities are
needed (Netflix)
1 4
Conventional tradeoffs
may become obsolete
(AND not OR)
Change happens
faster (FaceBook)
2 5
Money moves
unevenly (Apple
stores)
Ecosystems are
redrawn (ApplePay)
3 6

Digitization allows firms to operate, innovate and organize
more effectively
IMPROVE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY
▪ Better visibility into inventory and supply chain
▪ Benefits from process automation and “hyper”- scaling
▪ Higher utilization of current assets and resources
EXPAND MARKET REACH AND ENGAGEMENT
▪ Ability to serve “long tail” of niche customers
▪ Platforms and multiple channels to reach customers worldwide
▪ Insight into customer needs allows for more tailoring
DEPLOY WORKFORCES MORE EFFECTIVELY
▪ Tools to enable remote, flexible, and virtual work
▪ Better resource allocation and specialization
▪ Online platforms to find, recruit, and develop talent
SPUR INNOVATION AND DISRUPTION
▪ Improved tools for design, testing, and development
▪ New and improved products, services, and business models
▪ Co-innovation platforms with suppliers, customers

Digitization starts with pioneering firms, then
spreads to entire industries
Time
NEW NORMAL
Advanced incumbents,
established start-ups
LAGGARD
INCUMBENTS
DROP OFF
NEW
TRENDS
emerge
INNOVATIVE
START-UPS
create disruptive
business models
EARLY
ADOPTERS
embrace the
new models
ADVANCED
INCUMBENTS
begin to adapt
MAINSTREAM
CUSTOMERS
adopt
TIPPING
POINT

19
93
16
92
15
91
13
90
13
89
12
88
12
87
11
86
10
85
9
84
10
83
9
82
9
81
10
08
9
07
12
06
14
05
15
04
15
03
15
02
16
01
18
2000
19
99
20
98
20
97
18
96
19
95
19
7
-66%
13
12
7
11
7
10
7
09
9
94
80
10
79
12
78
15
77
13
76
11
75
10
74
10
1973
11
Digital disruptions can shift value dramatically, often destroying
significant value pools
SOURCE: RIAA
The music industry
Total year-end RIAA (US) revenue statistics, USD B (adjusted 2013)
Ringtones & Ringbacks
Paid Subscriptions
On-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported)
Synchronization
SoundExchange Distributions
SACD
CD
Music Video
DVD Audio
Other Tapes
8 - Track
Download Single
Download Album
Kiosk
Download Music Video
Cassette
LP/EP
April 2003, iTunes
store launch
1999 – illegal upstarts
(e.g., Napster) proves
download potential

DIGITIZED SECTORS
SEE CHANGES IN
COMPETITIVE
DYNAMICS
Digital and intangible assets become more valuable
Lower information asymmetry disrupts intermediaries
Value chains split and end up with specialized niches
Hyperscale and winner-take-all effects take hold
Industry boundaries blur

U.S. HOTEL BOOKING REVENUE AND NUMBER OF LIVE
TRAVEL AGENTS, 2000-2014
Traditional market intermediaries get disrupted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
100
120
110
80
70
90
50
60
20142013
130
082005 06 102001 2003 201104 20072000 1202 2009
Number of live travel agents
Thousands
Revenue
$ Billions
Number of travel
agents in US
Online hotel
revenues

New opportunities to create value in commercial ecosystems
Production firmsDesign firms
Devices
2013
5
Carriers
47
Apps and
mobile web
Components
0
2007
-5
29
5
12
81
1
16
17
54
Network
infrastructure
US WIRELESS VALUE CHAIN
PROFITS, 2013 (%; $ billion)
AVERAGE
EBIT1 MARGIN,
2007–13 (%)
25
13
10
9
-3
-4
4
7
22
25
33Qualcomm
Tianma
Hann Star
MediaTek
Chungwha
Skyworks
2
1
5
12
30
Flextronics
Jabil
ZTE
Samsung Electronics
Apple
EBIT MARGINS OF LEADING FIRMS, 2014 OR
LATEST AVAILABLE, 2007–13 (%)

Largest tech firms and their platforms rival the size of nations
2014 OR LATEST DATA
China
Population: 1.37 billion
Facebook
Monthly active users: 1.49
billion
Indonesia
Population: 255 million
Google
Android phones shipped in
Q2 2015: >270 million
Mexico
Microsoft
Windows 10 downloads:
110 million
United States
Population:
320 million
Bharti Airtel
Customer base:
310 million
France, Germany, UK, Spain
Total population: 258 million
Amazon.com
Customer base: 244 million
South Africa
Netflix
Number of subscribers
in 2014: >50 million

TWO:
DIGITIZATION
IS PLAYING
OUT ACROSS
SECTORS

A comprehensive view looks across assets, usage,
and people affected
ASSETS
 Digital asset stock of
hardware, software,
telecom, IT services
 Spending on third-party
digital assets
 Digitally connected non-
ICT equipment
 Data storage
LABOR
 Capital deepening: digital
assets per worker by
category
 Time-weighted share of
12,000+ worker tasks that
are digital
 Digital jobs as share of
total jobs in sector
USAGE
 Digital payments
 Adoption of ERP and CRM
software for front or back-
office
 Social technology adoption
to engage suppliers,
customers
 Digital marketplaces

The MGI Industry Digitization Index Relatively highRelatively low
Denotes leading digital firms within
relatively un-digitized sectors
Selected sectors
Overall
digitization Assets Usage Labor GDP share
Employment
share
Productivity
growth
2005-2014
CAGR
DIGITIZATION INDICES
Oil and gas
Finance and insurance
Wholesale trade
Advanced manufacturing
Health care
ICT sector
Government
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Hospitality
2% 0.1% 2.9%
8% 4% 1.6%
5% 4% 0.2%
3% 2% 2.6%
10% 13% -0.1%
5% 3% 4.6%
16% 15% 0.2%
5% 11% -1.1%
3% 3% 1.4%
4% 8% -0.9%
Education 2% 2% -0.5%
Basic goods manufacturing 5% 5% 1.2%
Construction 3% 5% -1.4%
Personal and local services 6% 11% 0.5%
SELECTED SECTORS (OF 22 ANALYZED)
November 2015
Digitization

Spending on digital
assets
Digital asset stock
Transactions
Interactions
Business processesMarket making
Digital spending on
workers
Digital capital deepening
Digitization of work
Industries are digitizing in different ways Media
Oil and gas
Retail tradeIndexed variables: 100 = maximum (most digitized industry)

THREE: IoT IS
INTEGRAL TO
DIGITAL

2025 Market Expectations
IoT has potential to be big, but will be different than existing
mobile or PC markets
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
10+ billion
new connected devices
$1– 4T
Economic value at stake
$200-550B
ICT spend
2015 realities
Fragmented
Many device types,
diverse markets
Integrated
Platforms not yet
emerged
Solution
centric
Value in solutions (75%)

Degree of value creation will vary across verticals
4.7
TMT 5.1
Agriculture and chemicals 5.8
Healthcare and PMP 6.2
Banking and insurance 6.5
Mining
TTL
Oil & Gas
Advanced Electronics
Automotive & Assembly
2.5
1.2
2.6
3.3
4.4
Consumer Goods
Retail
Infrastructure 13.4
Public sector and utilities 14.3
13.0
11.5
Total 94.7
Aerospace & Defence
0.1 – 0.5
0.6 – 1.5
0.3 – 0.6
0.1 – 0.4
0.5 – 0.8
0.3 – 0.8
0.1 – 0.5
0.1 – 0.4
0.1 – 0.2
4.0 - 11.2
0.3 – 1.2
0.2 – 0.5
0.5 – 2.2
0.4 – 0.8
0.3 – 0.9
SOURCE: IHS, Mckinsey Analysis
PRELIMINARY
Potential Economic
Benefit for IOT1
2025 USD Trillions
Global Vertical Value
Add
2025 USD Trillions Top Use Cases
▪ Self-checkout – billing/material handling
▪ Layout optimization
▪ Air quality monitoring
▪ Centralized and adaptive traffic control
▪ Increase farm yield
▪ Operations management
▪ Defense – After sales service improvements
▪ Aerospace – After sales service improvements
▪ Insurance – personal transportation
▪ Monitoring and treating illness
▪ Improving wellness
▪ Operations management
▪ Monitoring and treating illness
▪ Logistics routing
▪ Autonomous vehicles
▪ Operations Management
▪ Improved equipment maintenance
▪ Passenger vehicles – After sales service
improvements
▪ Air quality monitoring
▪ Centralized and adaptive traffic control
▪ Chore automation
▪ Energy Management
Percent of
Total Indus-
try2, Percent
5%
3%
7%
6%
4%
35%
8%
15%
17%
9%
47%
44%
20%
31%
12%
1 Includes sized applications only; includes consumer surplus 2 Potential economic benefit as a % of global vertical value add; Represents a rough measure of
potential disruptions of each industry which would include share shifts and transfer to consumer surplus; thus does not represent industry growth

IoT will solve business problems that were traditionally
hard to solve
1.5
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.4
1.3
0.2
0.9
0.5
0.3
1.2
Highest value
verticals
Connected
home
Connected
lifestyle
Healthcare
Retail/
Commerce
Automotive
Agriculture
Telco and
Utilities
Advertising
Defense /
Security
Oil & Gas and
Mineral extraction
Public sector &
Smart cities
Education
Media &
Entertainment
Asset and
Logistics SC
Finance /
Insurance
2025 economic
value
$ TrillionsVerticals
ConsumerIndustrial
Sample business problem How IOT solves the problem
Value
created
by IOT
▪ Patient monitoring needed
for improving treatment
▪ Heart patient adherence for
recommended treatment is
~50%. Non-adherence in
chronic coronary artery
patients increases risk of
hospitalization by 10-40%
and mortality 50-80%
▪ Treatment adherence is
linked to a 50% decrease in
treatment costs for cardiac
patients
▪ Early detection of
complications such as rapid
gain in weight in a patient
with CHF can lead to
prevention of an acute
exacerbation, pulmonary
edema, and even sudden
cardiac death
▪ Patient
monitoring
will create
▪ $0.2 –
1.1T
▪ Road accidents are
attributed mostly to human
error
▪ Safety is a top priority for
car manufacturers; 1/3 of
new car buyers want their
car to prevent them from
accelerating above the
speed limit
▪ Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V)
communication, computer
vision, and local intelligence
will help reduce accidents
by 40%
▪ Autono-
mous
vehicles
will create
▪ $0.4 –
0.5T

Mobile and IoT drive profitability in Retail in different ways
Value driver
Increase customer
loyalty
Increase traffic
into the store
Improve in-store
operations
Improve in-store
labor productivity
Increase
conversion /
basket size
Capture
Incremental sales
through mobile
Improvingcustomerexperience
▪ Layout and merchandising optimization
▪ Inventory management
▪ Product metadata / reviews
▪ Real-time product availability
▪ Real-time dynamic pricing
▪ Enhanced in-store experience
(e.g., virtual fitting, smart shopping list)
▪ Mobile payments
▪ Mobile commerce (e.g., store pickup)
▪ In-store navigation
▪ Productivity tools (e.g., workforce
management, shift scheduling, training)
▪ Personalized sales force
▪ Personalized real-time offers
▪ Real-time social sharing
▪ Mobile POS / self-checkout
Employeeexp
Total
75-90
70-75
35-50
65-85
50-70
30-45
5-15
20-40
20-35
30-35
20-30
30-50
5-15
95-115
Potential oper.
profit contribution
Bps
5-8%
RETAIL
ExampleUse-cases

A comprehensive retail mobile experience currently requires
components from multiple players
▪ Platform for
integrating social
media into mobile
apps
▪ Revenue: Free /
volume
▪ Beacons track customer
location and proximity to items
▪ Revenue: Licensing
▪ PayPal beacon
automatically charges
customer as they walk out
of the store
▪ Revenue: Share of revenue
▪ Location-specific mobile
marketing pushes
advertisements to customers
when they’re near the store
▪ Revenue: Transaction volume
▪ Anonymous customer tracking
▪ Real-time coupon engine
sends promotions to mobile
device
▪ Revenue: Subscription
▪ Comprehensive in-store
customer tracking
▪ Revenue: Licensing
RETAIL

American Apparel developed a mobile app that integrates
multiple use cases…
Real-time offers
▪ Mobile app tracks customer location
and sends offers to mobile device
upon entering a store
Augmented reality
Product metadata
Social share
Metadata
eCommerce
integration
RETAIL
▪ American Apparel’s
reliance on RFID for
inventory tracking
creates pain point
for seemless self-
checkout
▪ In-house IT solution
still requires
physical kiosks in
store to scan items
Self-checkout QR code
▪ Customer scans
QR code at in-store
kiosk to pair phone
with RFID reader
RFID tag
▪ Customer scans
Impijn RFID tag at
in-store kiosk to add
to shopping cart
Self-checkout
▪ Customer stores payment options
in mobile account
▪ Customer selects payment option
at time of checkout and completes
process on mobile device or kiosk

…but to do so required integrating many different services
and extensive customization by in-house IT
American Apparel favored several
platforms that its IT developers
had previous experience with
▪ JBoss / WildFly used as
application server
▪ Combination IIS / Apache
Web servers used to deliver
Web services (e.g., mobile
app, kiosk)
▪ JSON used for packet
transmission
Real-time offers
Developed use case with
Qualcomm’s Gimbal for
geofencing
Product metadata
▪ Used Qualcomm
Viewphoria for image
recognition
▪ Used Adobe’s Scene 7
SaaS solution to pull
product metadata
▪ Combined with in-house
cloud-based Web
services
Augmented reality
RETAIL
▪ Leveraged Foundry Logic to
extend Retail Pro POS for
mobile POS
▪ In-house mobile shopping
cart Web service integrates
with ATG eCommerce
▪ Results from POS wrapped
in Web service to push
receipt to customer
Payment processing
▪ Integrated Impinj RFID tags
for inventory tracking
▪ In-house Web services
connect into lower-level
functionality of RFID reader
▪ Wrote Web services in-
house to connect with RFID
antennas for theft-
prevention
RFID tag integration
▪ Partnered with Qualcomm to
bundle QR codes for pairing
at Kiosk and register
▪ Developed kiosk Web
services in-house
▪ Employee / customer apps
written as Web services in-
house
Mobile device pairing

Therefore, OEMs are driving completely
integrated systems to reduce cost and control in-
car experience
Number of cars shipped
Millions
Overall trends
Connected cars are soon becoming an integral part of the
driving experience
1
9288848178757269
75
53
38
19131010
27
13 1716 191815 2014
10-20%
66%
+4% p.a.
30-40%
2020
111
31%
20252014
85
138
3%
50%82%
18%
0
Completely integrated system
Components
Partially integrated system
Demand forecast for CIS
Million units
Total car shipments
Connected car penetration (%)
But customers are not willing to pay more for services or new
features
2
1314
6
5052
6
~ 56k
4
2014
6
2020
1
~ 56k
Average customer spend over 5-year car lifecycle1
Insurance
Telematics
services
Base price2
Maintenance
ADAS
AUTO
▪ Overall pricing pressure due to:
– declining demand per
capita for cars in
developed markets as a
result of customer
behavior/sharing economy
(e.g., millenials favoring
Uber)
– preference for affordable
cars in developing
economies
▪ Willingness to pay for advanced
features (e.g., ADAS,
Telematics) as buyers seek
convenience and safety
3

Auto ICT market overview
47
21
27
15
10
8
5
5
89
48
20202015
Auto ICT market size1
$ Billions
Body &
convenience
Powertrain
Safety &
chassis
Segments CAGR
1%
6%
13%
17%
Connectivity &
entertainment
Details follow
9.5% CAGR
AUTO
SOURCE: McKinsey analysis, IHS
1 IOE is a subset of total auto ICT market
Description
▪ Systems for generating
and delivering power (e.g.,
chargers, microcontrollers,
converters)
▪ ADAS (Adv driver
assistance systems):
prevents accidents
▪ Passive safety: systems
that protect occupants from
injury during an accident
▪ Hardware, software, and
services for infotainment
and telematics
▪ Systems for functions such
as door controls, window
controls, and climate
controls
Growth drivers
▪ Fuel efficiency regulations
increasing need for electronics
▪ Powertrain electrification (e.g.,
hybrids and electric vehicles)
▪ ADAS: regulations pushing
reduction of vehicle-related
accidents/ deaths
▪ Passive safety: mature and
integrating into ADAS systems
▪ Greater smartphone
integration
▪ Leveraging data feeds for
insurance and maintenance
optimization
▪ Mature market. Premium
features cost optimized for use
in lower tiers

2020 autonomous vehicle functions
IoT will help reduce human error with existing technologies
SAFETY AND CHASSIS DEEP DIVE
Critical technologies
Safety functionAdaptive
cruise
control
Emergency
braking
Pedestrian
detection
Collision
avoidance
Traffic Sign
recognition
Lane
departure
warning
Cross
traffic
alert
Park
assist
Surround
view
Blind spot
detection
Park
assist
Park assistanc
e/ surro
und view
Rear collision
warning
Surround
view
Alert
Sensors
Dev kit
algorithm /
engine Connectivity
Lane keeping
assistance
Cameras,
radar, infrared
Geospatial
analysis
Ethernet
Lane change
assistance
Radar, laser,
proximity
Signal
processing
CAN
Driver monitoring Cameras Affective
computing
Ethernet
Traffic sign
recognition
Cameras Machine
vision, OCR
Ethernet
Parking assistance Cameras,
Ultrasound
3D rendering
(motion-
stereo)
Ethernet
Adaptive front
lighting
Photo/ light
sensor
Signal
processing
CAN
Emergency call Accelerometer N/A Ethernet,
Cellular
Stop and go cruise Radar Adaptive
cruise control
CAN
Car to car N/A M2M protocol DSRC
Cameras,
laser, or
infrared
Signal
processing
EthernetLane departure
warning
Control

IoT Business models will evolve
Potential
examples
Outcome
linked
monetization
IoT will enable
monetization of
products "as a
service" rather
than a capital
investment.
Examples
include Usage
Based
Insurance and
Managed
Printing
Services
Rise of
need for
utility players
The proliferation
of equipment
manufacturers will
require horizontal
solutions. This
role could be filled
by new players or
existing players
redefining their
role (e.g., John
Deere Worksight)
Platform model
with developer
ecosystem
Companies are
trying to build
platforms for
application
development
and monetize
through API
usage, devices
or servers e.g.,
Apogee, Axeda,
ThingWorx
Funding
partnerships
with incumbents
New players
with disruptive
technologies
could partner
with existing
incumbents to
help fund cost-
savings (e.g.,
Ginger.io and
Kaiser)

Five types of enablers will drive IoT potential impact
Hardware
technology
A
▪ Low power
consuming
sensors
▪ Cheap
processing
ability
▪ Ubiquitous
connectivity /
low-cost mesh
connectivity
▪ Further
reduction in cost
of cloud storage
and computing
Software
technology
B
▪ Evolution of
predictive
analytics and
algorithms
▪ Confidence in
Security across
entire IoT
ecosystem
▪ Standardization
of the stack and
interoperability
Data
ownership
C
▪ Establish trust
with consumers
on sharing data
▪ Collaboration
across
companies and
verticals
▪ Horizontal data
aggregators
Business Org
and culture
D
▪ Industry
structure e.g.,
organized labor,
third party
servicing
▪ Committing to
upfront
investment
based on clear
business case
▪ HW focused
companies
expanding core
competency to
SW
Public policyE
▪ Regulation for
autonomous
control
▪ Government and
payor subsidy of
healthcare IoT
▪ Agreement on
fair data sharing
practices

FOUR:
INSTITUTIONS
HAVE TO
LEARN TO TAP
INTO VALUE

INCUMBENTS ARE
SITTING ON A
DIGITAL GOLD MINE
DATA
RELATIONSHIPS
TALENT
BRAND
BALANCE
SHEET
CASH FLOW
INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY

MANY INCUMBENTS
HAVE UNLOCKED THE
VALUE OF DIGITAL…

…YET MORE
ARE FAILING

SYMPTOMS
▪ Low share in digital channel
▪ Disintermediation
▪ Slow IT delivery
ROOT CAUSES
▪ Low management commitment to digital
▪ Decaying business model
▪ Siloed organisational structure
▪ Missing capabilities
DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATIONS
FAIL BECAUSE THEY
ADDRESS SYMPTOMS
NOT ROOT CAUSES

How to…design digital strategy
so it can successfully address
the challenges for incumbents
?

Nike put the customer first and invested in an end-to-end digital
athletics ecosystem
Case example
x4
10M+
30M+
SOURCE: Analyst reports, press articles, web search

Home Depot embraced an omni-channel digital strategy
Case example
$300M
+53%yoy

Progressive is breaking age-old insurance paradigms with
digital using "user-based insurance" models
1.2M+
50%
110 Tb
Case example

Successful digital transitioners...
Put customers front and center of their strategies
Develop new ways to measure "digital success"
Proactively shape your ecosystem: new
partners, new value sharing models
Actively experiment and seek to raise the
metabolic rate of the company
Ruthlessly disrupt your own business
model before others do
Follow the money: put your best resources
where the future growth is
SOURCE: McKinsey Digital; McKinsey Strategy and Corporate Finance practice

In Summary….
Old definitions of digital haves and have-nots are outdated; now
it’s about the haves and have-mores. There is no opting out of the
digital economy
Have-mores (firms, industries) do much more with digital; and
they see tangible gains in profitability, efficiency, and ability to set new
rules of competition
We are at early stages still. Sectors representing 80% of the
economy have yet to benefit from digitization
Digital is not just about a “thing” (like improving IT) – it’s about a
new way of doing things (implying people, assets, use cases)
Incumbents are sitting on a digital goldmine, yet most have yet to
leverage digital’s full potential

DIGITAL & IoT: A TALE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE-MORES- McKinsey & Company

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DIGITAL & IoT: A TALE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE-MORES- McKinsey & Company