Three leading industry analysts explain their femtocell and small cell forecasts, stating their assumptions and debating why they differ so much. Hear what they have to say: Dimitris Mavrakis, Informa Telecoms and Media Joe Madden, Mobile Experts Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research

1. ThinkSmallCell
Webinar
Series
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shoot-­‐Out
Dimitris
Mavrakis
Joe
Madden
Caroline
Gabriel
Principal
Analyst
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Research
Director
Informa
Media
and
Telecoms
Mobile
Experts
Rethink
Research

2. Agenda
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shootout
• IntroducHon,
David
Chambers,
ThinkSmallCell
• Analyst
Forecasts
and
AssumpHons
• Dimitris
Mavrakis,
Informa
• Joe
Madden,
Mobile
Experts
• Caroline
Gabriel,
Rethink
Research
• QuesHon
and
Answer
Session
• Conclusion

3. The
different
categories
of
small
cells
Small
Cells
OR
Femtocells
Small
Cells
Residen,al
Enterprise
Metrocell
Rural

4. Issues
with
small
cell
forecasts?
• Why
such
wide
differences
in
analyst
forecast
numbers?
– Informa
91
million
by
2016
vs
Mobile
Experts
9
million
• It’s
always
“next
year”?
– Why
are
we
seeing
the
same
forecast
numbers,
but
deferred
by
a
year,
every
year?
• Volume
vs
revenue?
– ResidenHal
femtocells
in
10’s
of
millions
but
potenHally
larger
revenues
are
associated
with
metro/enterprise
sector
• CDMA
surprise
– Why
is
Samsung
reported
to
be
#1
in
shipments
&
#1
in
revenue
today?

5. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shoot-­‐Out
Dimitris
Mavrakis
Joe
Madden
Caroline
Gabriel
Prinicipal
Analyst
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Research
Director
Informa
Media
and
Telecoms
Mobile
Experts
Rethink
Research

6. Informa’s femtocell forecasts
Femtocell(deploymetns((millions)( !35!!
!30!!
!25!!
!20!!
!15!!
!10!!
!5!!
!"!!!!
2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016!
North!America! La6n!America! Asia"Pacific! Europe! Africa/Middle!East!
Control
points
(end
2012):
• Forecasts:
5.48
million
femtocells
deployed
• AT&T
and
Sprint:
>1
million
• Vodafone:
500k
• Global
deployments:
46
19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com

7. Informa’s small cell forecasts
!3,000!!
Small%cell%deployments%(thousands)%
!2,500!!
!2,000!!
!1,500!!
!1,000!!
!500!!
!"!!!!
2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016!
Picocells! Microcells! Metrocells!
• Moderate
growth
compared
to
femtocells
• Revenues
not
proporHonal
to
shipments
• Microcells
to
dominate
19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com

8. Why 91 million?
• Femtocell gateways already in place
• Broadband penetration increasing (doubling in most regions)
• Femtocell access points dropping in price
• Advanced CPE
• Vodafone FemtoPlug (including HomePlug)
• CEM becoming more important – coverage a primary concern
• LTE using higher frequencies – indoor penetration problems
On the other hand:
• WiFi already used indoors and ubiquitous in handsets
• Outdoor/public (carrier grade) small cells more important?
19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com

9. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shoot-­‐Out
Dimitris
Mavrakis
Joe
Madden
Caroline
Gabriel
Prinicipal
Analyst
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Research
Director
Informa
Media
and
Telecoms
Mobile
Experts
Rethink
Research

10. Mobile
Experts
Small
Cell
Forecast
Consumer
Femtocells
are
driven
by
consumer
demand,
not
by
operators
-­‐-­‐Linear
growth
in
sales
Carrier
Grade
Small
Cells
are
driven
by
2x
capacity
every
year
-­‐-­‐Geometric
curve
will
follow
the
data
demand
curve

11. Note:
TCO
shown
over
8
year
period
$1,000,000
GSM
EDGE
$100,000
Cost
per
Mbps
of
Capacity
UMTS
$10,000
HSPA
LTE
Macro
LTE HetNet,
high
cost
backhaul
$1,000
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
LTE HetNet,
cheap
backhaul
$100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
is
the
cheapest
capacity
solution
available...but
doesn’t
work
everywhere.
New
spectrum
and
LTE
rollout
delays
the
intro
of
small
cells...CAPEX
focused
on
macro
Backhaul
costs
will
dictate
the
data
density
required
for
a
small
cell
to
provide
ROI
www.mobile-­‐experts.net
+1
408.540.7284
Vision
for
Wireless
Ventures

12. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shoot-­‐Out
Dimitris
Mavrakis
Joe
Madden
Caroline
Gabriel
Prinicipal
Analyst
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Research
Director
Informa
Media
and
Telecoms
Mobile
Experts
Rethink
Research

13. Small cells (private)
December
2012
• Growth below expectations 60 180
 Consumer economics 160
50
 User proposition 140
no of operators
40 120
• Part of toolkit but not
m units
100
disruptive 30
80
• Disruption to supply chain not 20 60
40
user experience 10
20
• New leap after 2013 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
 Cost Number Domestic
 Wi-Fi integration Enterprise Integrated Wi-Fi
Commercial operators
 New applications
 MVNO/hosted services Private small cells by type Iinstalled)
Source: Maravedis-Rethink RAN Service
www.maravedis-bwa.com
© Copyright All Rights Reserved Maravedis-Rethink 2012
13 13
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

14. Small cells (public)
 Step change after 2014 12000
 Race for capacity 10000
 WiFi integration 8000
 LTE-A
,000 units
6000
 Importance of indoors
4000
 Significant risk factors (-35%)
 Standards 2000
 Backhaul
0
 Supply chain 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Traditional BTS sales Small cell sales
Public access small cell sales
www.maravedis-bwa.com & www.rethinkresearch.biz © Copyright All Rights Reserved Maravedis-Rethink 2012

15. Audience
Poll
–
End
2012

16. Audience
Poll
–
End
2016

17. Q&A
Session
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Shoot-­‐Out
Dimitris
Mavrakis
Joe
Madden
Caroline
Gabriel
Prinicipal
Analyst
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Research
Director
Informa
Media
and
Telecoms
Mobile
Experts
Rethink
Research

18. More
informaHon
• More
resources/informaHon
at
ThinkSmallCell.com
– Sign
up
for
our
free
monthly
newsleeer
– www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars
– www.thinksmallcell.com/Analysts/femtocell-­‐analyst-­‐reports.html
• Latest
Small
Cell
Forum
market
report
– www.smallcellforum.org/smallcellforum/resources-­‐white-­‐papers
• Contact
today’s
analysts
– Informa
Telecoms
and
Media:
www.informatandm.com
– Mobile
Experts:
www.mobile-­‐experts.net
– Rethink
Research:
www.rethinkresearch.biz