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Urban Mobility Is Evolving in Unexpected Ways Due to COVID-19

COVID-19’s uneven trajectory has created a slower-than-expected rebound in urban travel worldwide. Some mobility modes, however, are poised to exceed pre-pandemic levels. BCG provides a breakdown of recovery levels in urban mobility by region and mode--and over time.

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Urban Mobility Is Evolving in Unexpected Ways Due to COVID-19

  1. 1. COVID-19 Urban Mobility Is Evolving in Unexpected Ways
  2. 2. 1 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. In April, as the US and Europe were in COVID-19 lockdown and China was emerging from it, we surveyed 5,000 city dwellers in those regions about their urban mobility usage. How had it changed from the pre-pandemic period? And what did they expect once lockdowns were eased? Four months later, we conducted a follow-up survey to see how expectations had panned out— and what residents expect over the next year. We compared the changes in number of weekly trips and use by mobility mode across regions, along with spending expectations. We also looked at the impact of working from home. The exhibits that follow capture our findings. Urban mobility in Europe and in China especially is rebounding much faster than in the US. Public transit is the big laggard, and private car use is down more than expected, but bikes and scooters are roaring back. Introduction
  3. 3. 2 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Intra-city private car use is far lower than expected Residents’ expected use (April) vs. actual use (August)¹ 0 10050 Expected Actual Actual Actual Expected Actual 0 50 1000 50 100 Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020. Note: “Expected use” refers to respondents’ answers to our April survey, in which they were asked how they expected to use transportation modes once lockdowns were lifted, compared with their pre-COVID-19 use. “Actual use,” based on our August survey, reflects how their use has actually changed. 1. Based on April and August 2020 surveys of residents of major cities in the US, Europe, and China; in each survey, n=approximately 5,000 respondents. 2. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing. Expected Actual How to read this chart: Chinese still use less public transit than before the pandemic, but more than expected Public transit Private car Shared mobility2 Private bike/ scooter & walking Average across modes Expected Expected US EU China A lot less MoreLess Same as before A lot more Lower than expected usage Same (or similar) usage as expected Higher than expected usage
  4. 4. 3 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) 23% 16% 8% 10% 39% 17% 34% 5% Aug ’20 20% 7% 31% 1st Lockdown 16% 38% 7% 29% 14% 39% 15% 6% 25% In 1 year (Aug ’21) 100% Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020. 1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing. 34% 24% 11% 27% 7% 8% 26% 6% 13% Aug ’20 43% 35% 1st Lockdown 16% 28% 20% 6% 12% 39% 27% 7% 11% In 1 year (Aug ’21) 100% 24% 23% 7% 20% 29% 21% 11% 26% 28% 8% 25% 29% 1st Lockdown 18% 27% 8% 21% Aug ’20 19% 29% 7% 100% 20% In 1 year (Aug ’21) Private bike/scooterWalking Public transitPrivate car Urban mobility use is rebounding faster in Europe and China Modal share and change over time, based on number of weekly trips -54% -26% -66% -14% -12% +10% +1%-46%-55% Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) US EU China Shared mobility1
  5. 5. 4 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Public transitPrivate carWeighted average across mobility modes Private bike/scooter The slowest recovery is expected for public transit, while bikes are going strong Number of weekly trips over time (indexed to 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels) 50% 100% 150% 1st Lockdown Aug ’20 In 1 year (Aug ’21) 1st Lockdown Aug ’20 In 1 year (Aug ’21) Aug ’20 In 1 year (Aug ’21) 1st Lockdown Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020. 1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing. Private car and privately owned bike/scooter run almost in parallel 113% 87% 81% 78% 132% 109% 98% 87% 117% 110% 117% 105% Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) US EU China Shared mobility1
  6. 6. 5 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. 7% 17% 58% 70% 41% 1st Lockdown 3% 4% 5% 9% 46% 3% 12% 64% 4% 100% 6% 4% 53% 87% 4% -13% 24% 3% 69% 15%10% 4% 2% 36% 3% 1st Lockdown 3% 54% 3% 22% 68% 75% 5% 100% 51% 98% 2% -2% 19% 68% 2% 4% 5% 1st Lockdown 6% 65% 31% 15% 100% 19% 75% 38% 92% 108% 2% 6% 6% 8% 8% +8% Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020. Note: Respondents were asked how much they typically spend (or expect to spend) each month on local mobility at these four points in time. 1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing. Monthly mobility spending vs. 2019 levels differs considerably across regions Actual and planned mobility spending (indexed to 2019 levels) Private bike/ scooter Shared mobility1 Private car Public transit Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Pre-Covid (Aug ’19) Aug ’20 Aug ’20Aug ’20In 1 year (Aug ’21) In 1 year (Aug ’21) In 1 year (Aug ’21) US EU China
  7. 7. 6 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Private Bike/ Scooter Shared mobility2 Private Car Public Transit Source: BCG Urban Mobility Survey, August 2020. Note: Respondents were asked how much they typically spent per month on urban mobility pre-COVID-19 (in August 2019) and how much they expect to spend a year from now (August 2021). 1. Indicates willingness to pay relative to change in consumption. 2. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing. Consumers expect to spend less per shared mobility trip in the future 2021 vs. pre-COVID-19 +16% +3% -1% -11% +32% +9% -2% -13% -1% +7% +11% ~0% +17% +10% +17% +5% +2% -27% -8% -29% Change in spending +13% -19% -13% -22% Change in # of trips Change in spending Change in # of trips Change in spending Change in # of trips Expected spend/trip Expected spend/trip US EU China Expected spend/trip1
  8. 8. 7 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Consumers want to work more from home, and expect a shift toward more personal trips Share of respondents who said they would like to work from home more often1 Source: BCG Urban Mobility Survey, August 2020. 1. Share of respondents who responded “agree” or “tend to agree” with the statement "I would like to work from home more often and travel less to/from the office.” 65% 56% 71% -16% +5%-8% Expected change (Aug ’19 vs. Aug ’21) -10% +16%+8% Change in number of weekly work–related trips Change in number of weekly personal trips US EU China
  9. 9. THANK YOU

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