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Technology Industry /
Finnish Economic Outlook
February 2016
• 50% of total Finnish exports.
• 75% of private-sector
R&D investment.
• Some 280,000 employed directly in the
sector, 700,000 employed in total,
equalling about 30% of the entire
Finnish labour force.
• The Federation of Finnish Technology
Industries has over 1,600 member
companies.
2
The Technology Industry –
the Largest Export Sector in Finland
11.2.2016
Mechanical Engineering
Abloy, Cargotec, Finn-Power, Fiskars,
Glaston, Kone, Konecranes, Metso,
Meyer Turku, Normet, Oras, Patria,
Pemamek, Ponsse, Stala, Valmet, Valtra,
Wärtsilä…
Electronics and
Electrotechnical Industry
ABB, Ensto, Microsoft Mobile,
Murata Electronics, Nokia,
Planmeca, Polar Electro, Suunto,
Vacon, Vaisala…
Information Technology
Affecto, Basware, Bilot, CGI,
Comptel, Digia, Efecte, Enfo,
F-Secure, Fujitsu Finland, IBM,
Innofactor, Knowit, Microsoft,
Nixu, Tieto…
Metals Industry
Boliden, Componenta,
Kuusakoski, Luvata, Outokumpu,
Outotec, Ovako, Sacotec,
SSAB …
Consulting Engineering
A-Insinöörit, Citec, Elomatic,
Etteplan, FCG, Granlund, Neste
Jacobs, Pöyry, Ramboll,
Rejlers, SITO, SWECO, WSP...
The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of
Five Sub-Sectors
11.2.20163
The Finnish Technology Industry is Comprised of
Five Sub-Sectors
Electronics and
Electrotechnical Industry
• Data communications equipment,
electrical machinery, medical technology
products
• Turnover (2015): 13.6 billion euros
• Personnel (2015): 40,500
Metals Industry
• Steel products, non-ferrous
metals, castings
• Turnover (2015): 10.1 billion euros
• Personnel (2015): 15,100
Mechanical Engineering
• Machinery, metal products,
vehicles
• Turnover (2015): 27.6 billion euros
• Personnel (2015): 121,000
Consulting Engineering
• Expertise for construction industry
and infrastructure
• Turnover (2015): 5.6 billion euros
• Personnel (2015): 47,300
Information Technology
• IT services, applications
and programming
• Turnover (2015): 10.8 billion euros
• Personnel (2015): 57,900
11.2.20164
11.2.20165
Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
11.2.20166
Export of Technology Industry Goods from
Finland by Area in 2014
Total goods exports 26.2 billion euros*
North America
2.6 billion €
9.8%
Western Europe
13.1 billion €
50.1%
Middle and
Central East
0.5 billion €
2.1%
Asia
4.1 billion €
15.8%
Africa
0.5 billion €
1.8%
South and Middle America
0.9 billion €
3.3%
Central and Eastern Europe
4.5 billion €
17.1%
*) In addition to goods exports the sector exported services worth 10.9 billion euros.
Source: National Board of Customs, Statistics Finland
11.2.20167
Turnover of the Industry and Technology
Industry in Finland
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
11.2.20168
Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
11.2.20169
Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry* in
Finland
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information October-December 2015
*) Excluding metals industry
and game industry
companies.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015
Export: -13 % -5 %
Domestic: +8 % +24 %
Combined: -8 % +2 %
11.2.201610
Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry* in
Finland
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information 31.12.2015
*) Excluding metals industry
and game industry
companies.
Combined
Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015
Export: +18 % +3 %
Domestic: +7 % +4 %
Combined: +15 % +3 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey,
latest information January 2016.
“Have you experienced a notable increase or decrease in the number of requests for tenders in recent weeks in comparison to the
situation three months ago?”. Balance figure = the number of companies receiving more requests - the number of companies receiving
less requests.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Balance figure
11.2.201611
Tender Requests* Received by Technology Industry
Companies in Finland
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.2.201612
Value of New Orders in the Electronics and
Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015
Export: -21 % +15 %
Domestic: +9 % +15 %
Combined: -18 % +15 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information October-December 2015
11.2.201613
Value of Order Books in the Electronics and
Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
Export
Domestic
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 30.9.2015
Export: -13 % +7 %
Domestic: +6 % +4 %
Combined: -11 % +7 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information 31.12.2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
11.2.201614
Value on New Orders in the Mechanical Engineering
in Finland
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015
Export: -1 % -20 %
Domestic: +11 % +45 %
Combined: +2 % -11 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information October-December 2015
11.2.201615
Value of Order Books in the Mechanical Engineering
in Finland
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
Export
Domestic
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 30.9.2015
Export: +36 % +2 %
Domestic: +3 % +2 %
Combined: +28 % +2 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information 31.12.2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
11.2.201616
Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering
in Finland
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015
Export: -26 % +42 %
Domestic: -14 % +20 %
Combined: -15 % +23 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information October-August 2015
11.2.201617
Value of Order Books in the Consulting Engineering
in Finland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Export
Domestic
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information 31.12.2015
Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015
Export: -20 % -10 %
Domestic: +16 % -1 %
Combined: +9 % -2 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
11.2.201618
Value of New Orders in the Information Technology
in Finland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015
Combined: +3 % +14 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information October-December 2015
*) Excl. game
industry companies
11.2.201619
Value of Order Books in the Information Technology
in Finland
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Million euros, at current prices
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015
Combined: +11 % +7 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies,
latest information 31.12.2015
*) Excl. game
industry companies
11.2.201620
Personnel in the Technology Industry
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Personnel in Finland Personnel in subsidiaries abroad
Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
Some 17,000 of personnel
affected by temporary or
part-time lay-offs 31.12.2015
11.2.201621
Technology Industry Personnel in Finland by Branch
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry
Metals industry Consulting engineering
Information technology
Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’labour force survey
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry
Metals industry Consulting engineering
Information technology
11.2.201622
Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries
Abroad by Branch
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
Retirement of Technology Industry Personnel
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Number of individuals retired Number of individuals retiring (estimation)
Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries,
Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland
Individuals per year
Salaried employees
Blue collar employees
11.2.201623
Retirement of Technology Industry Blue Collar
Employees
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Mechanical engineering Metals industry Electronics and electrotechnical industry
Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries, Finnish
Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland
Individuals per year
11.2.201624
 - Finland is in the grip of structural change. Development remains uneven between
companies.
 - Turnover in Finland increased slightly in 2015. Turnover totalled EUR 67.7 billion. In the
pre-crisis year 2008 it was EUR 86 billion.
 - The monetary value of new orders reported between October-December 2015 was 8 %
lower than in the corresponding period in 2014, but 2 % higher than in the preceding
quarter.
 - At the end of December, the value of order books was 15 % higher year-on-year, and 3 %
higher the value reported at the end of September.
 - The turnover of technology industry companies in early 2016 is expected to remain at the
same level or a slightly lower level as in the corresponding period last year.
 - Since 2008, personnel numbers in Finland have shrunk by 44,000 employees, totalling
on average 282,000 in 2015.
Economic Outlook in the Technology Industry
11.2.201625
Global Economy Grows, but
Outlook Is Uncertain
11.2.201626
11.2.201627
GDP is Growing in Western Europe and USA , Except
in Finland
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201628
Growth is Lowering in China
Recession Continues in Russia and Brazil
Share of global GDP in these countries is 23%, in China 16% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
GDP Growth Has Continued in Eurozone in January
2016
Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI), 50 = no change from previous month
Latest information January 2016.
Source: Markit
11.2.201629
Industrial Production Volume
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201630
Industrial Production Volume in EU Countries
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201631
11.2.201632
Global Industrial Production Growth has Slowed
Down
Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
11.2.201633
Industrial Production in China is Dropping
Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in China
50 = no change from previous month
Latest information January 2016.
Source: Markit
Industrial Production in Russia is Dropping
Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia
50 = no change from previous month
Latest information January 2016.
Source: Markit
11.2.201634
Industrial Production in Brazil is Dropping
Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia
50 = no change from previous month
Latest information January 2016.
Source: Markit
11.2.201635
11.2.201636
Industrial Production in USA is Dropping
Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia
50 = no change from previous month
Lähde: Macrobond
11.2.201637
Growth of Residence Construction Has Finished in
China
Share of China in Asian GDP is 42% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201638
Fixed Investments in Russia and Brazil are Falling
Share of Russia in European GDP is 13% (adjusted for PP)
Share of Brazil in Latin American GDP is 35% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201639
Import to Emerging Countries Has Lowered
Import volume development
Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
11.2.201640
Import to China Has Reduced from Other Countries
Source: Macrobond
Exports from EU Countries to Russia is Falling
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201641
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
Russia’s Share of Technology Industry Exports Will
Decline Again to the Level of Approximately Five Per
Cent
%
*) Soviet Union up to 1991.
Source: Finnish Customs
11.2.201642
11.2.201643
Raw Material Prices are Falling
Spot prices of hot-rolled coils
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
01/2005 01/2006 01/2007 01/2008 01/2009 01/2010 01/2011 01/2012 01/2013 01/2014 01/2015
USA Germany Russia China Brazil
US dollars / ton
Latest information December 2015
Source: CRU
11.2.201644
Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries are Varying
Euro exchange rate compared to other currencies
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201645
Global Economy is Expected to Grow by 3.4 % in
2016
GDP growth in 2016, %
Source: IMF (January 2016)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
North America
Western Europe
Japan
China
India
Rest of
Asia
RestofEastern
Europe
Russia
Brazil
Mexico
RestofLatin
America
MiddleEastandAfrica
The width of the bar indicates the share of global GDP in 2014 (adjusted for purchasing power parity), %
Average growth:
+3,4 %
11.2.201646
Source IMF (January 2016), Board of Customs
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
North America Western Europe Japan
China
India
Rest of
Asia
RestofEastern
Europe
Russia
BrazilMexico
RestofLatinAmerica
MiddleEastandAfrica
The width of the bar indicates the export share of technology industry from Finland in 2014, %
Average growth:
+2,3 %
Export Demand for Technology Industry in Finland
Will Grow by 2.3% in 2016
GDP growth in 2016, %
Breakdown of World Industrial Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Asia
North America
Europe
Purchasing power parity adjusted shares.
Source: Maddison (Historical Statistics), IMF and ETLA
%
11.2.201647
Industrial Production Development by Year
Source: Macrobond
11.2.201648
The Big Challenge for
Finland after 2008
11.2.201649
Finnish Exports up to EUR 30 Billion Short of
Annual Target Level
Source: Macronond, Statistics Finland / National Accounts11.2.201650
Finnish Exports Lagging Behind Competitors
Source: Macrobond, Eurostat11.2.201651
The Share of Industry in GDP in Finland 1900-2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Industry* Industry + service sectors in the technology industry
*) During 1900-1974 industry covers also mines, energy, water and refuse collection sectors.
Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts
11.2.201652
11.2.201653
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Industrial
production ability
(production with
capacity in full
use), left. Scale
Industrial
production
(2008=100), left
scale
Capacity utilization
rate, %, right scale
-20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-21%
Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts, Industrial volume index
Finland’s Industrial Production Will not Regain the
Level of 2008 with the Present Production Capacity
Finland’s production capasity has decreased by 20%
Growth of Public Debt and Tax Rate Out of Control
Increased cost burden requires cuts to public sector
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
11.2.201654
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e
Corporate sector fixed investments, index 2005=100
Sweden
The Netherlands
USA
Germany
Switzerland
Finland
11.2.201655
Upswing of Investments Required in Finland
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 2015
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e
Manufacturing industry Technology industry
Industrial Companies’ Investment Plans Indicate an
Increase in Investments Both in 2015 and 2016
Industrial fixed and R&D investments in Finland
Source: Statistics Finland, Confederation of Finnish Industries’
Investment Survey (January 2016)
Million euros, at current prices
11.2.201656
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manufacturing industry
Technology industry
National economy
Turning Point of Productivity* Development in Finland
After 2008 Finland has lost considerable volume production in electronics, forest and
machinery industries**
Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts
*) Productivity is measured as real value added per hours worked. When productivity grows (the curve rises)
value added grows more than hours worked.
Value added = turnover – purchasing of materials and services
Value added = labour costs + rents + depreciations + profits
**) The structure of current
industry does not enable the
similar productivity development
as during the years 2000-2008
11.2.201657
Index, 2000=100
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Compared to Belgium Compared to Germany Compared to Spain
Compared to Italy Compared to the Netherlands Compared to Austria
Compared to Finland
*) In the ECB Harmonised Competitiveness Index, the average effective exchange rate of each country is
calculated vis-à-vis 20 to 30 main trade partners, as well as the development of unit labour costs for the total
economy.
Latest information III/2015. Source: European Central Bank
Finland’s price
and cost
competitiveness
declines
2005,I =100
Finland’s price
and cost
competitiveness
improves
Unit Labour Costs at the National Economy Level
Unit labour costs = labour costs / productivity, including the influence of effective
exchange rates
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
11.2.201658
 Support the renewal of the industry
 Taxes should support growth and investment in Finland
 Support decision making in companies related to compensation and
working time
 No new European nor national burdens on companies, which are
deteriorating the competitiveness
What should be done?
11.2.201659
 Global Structural Change Set to Continue Apace
– Industrial production and services will relocate to rapidly developing economic areas
– Strong growth, large markets, cheap labour and increasing expertise will increase the
attractiveness of these regions.
 Competition over Skills and Raw Materials Set to Increase
– Due to an increase in retirement, the sector’s annual recruitment need in Finland will rise
considerably in the coming years.
– The availability of reasonably-priced energy also threatens to become an investment
bottleneck in Finland
 Combating Climate Change
– A challenge as costs are set to grow faster than in competitor countries
– An opportunity for new environmental and energy technologies
Long-Term Outlook and Challenges
11.2.201660
The Federation of Finnish
Technology Industries
11.2.201661
The Federation’s Member Companies 2014
62
71,069
38%
28,089
14%
25,997
17%
58,617
31%
1,439
91%
80
5%
46
3%
23
1%
Number of enteprises / 1 583 Number of personnel / 183 772
1–249 employees
250–499 employees
500–999 employees
1000– employees
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries11.2.2016
63
The Federation’s SME Member Companies 2014
506
35%
475
33%
258
18%
206
14%
Number of enterprises / 1 439 Number of personnel / 71 069
1–19 employees
20–49 employees
50–99 employees
100–249 employees
5,261
7%
15,047
21%
18,263
27%
32,498
45%
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries
11.2.2016

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Finnish technology industry, February 2016

  • 1. Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook February 2016
  • 2. • 50% of total Finnish exports. • 75% of private-sector R&D investment. • Some 280,000 employed directly in the sector, 700,000 employed in total, equalling about 30% of the entire Finnish labour force. • The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries has over 1,600 member companies. 2 The Technology Industry – the Largest Export Sector in Finland 11.2.2016
  • 3. Mechanical Engineering Abloy, Cargotec, Finn-Power, Fiskars, Glaston, Kone, Konecranes, Metso, Meyer Turku, Normet, Oras, Patria, Pemamek, Ponsse, Stala, Valmet, Valtra, Wärtsilä… Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry ABB, Ensto, Microsoft Mobile, Murata Electronics, Nokia, Planmeca, Polar Electro, Suunto, Vacon, Vaisala… Information Technology Affecto, Basware, Bilot, CGI, Comptel, Digia, Efecte, Enfo, F-Secure, Fujitsu Finland, IBM, Innofactor, Knowit, Microsoft, Nixu, Tieto… Metals Industry Boliden, Componenta, Kuusakoski, Luvata, Outokumpu, Outotec, Ovako, Sacotec, SSAB … Consulting Engineering A-Insinöörit, Citec, Elomatic, Etteplan, FCG, Granlund, Neste Jacobs, Pöyry, Ramboll, Rejlers, SITO, SWECO, WSP... The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors 11.2.20163
  • 4. The Finnish Technology Industry is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry • Data communications equipment, electrical machinery, medical technology products • Turnover (2015): 13.6 billion euros • Personnel (2015): 40,500 Metals Industry • Steel products, non-ferrous metals, castings • Turnover (2015): 10.1 billion euros • Personnel (2015): 15,100 Mechanical Engineering • Machinery, metal products, vehicles • Turnover (2015): 27.6 billion euros • Personnel (2015): 121,000 Consulting Engineering • Expertise for construction industry and infrastructure • Turnover (2015): 5.6 billion euros • Personnel (2015): 47,300 Information Technology • IT services, applications and programming • Turnover (2015): 10.8 billion euros • Personnel (2015): 57,900 11.2.20164
  • 5. 11.2.20165 Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
  • 6. 11.2.20166 Export of Technology Industry Goods from Finland by Area in 2014 Total goods exports 26.2 billion euros* North America 2.6 billion € 9.8% Western Europe 13.1 billion € 50.1% Middle and Central East 0.5 billion € 2.1% Asia 4.1 billion € 15.8% Africa 0.5 billion € 1.8% South and Middle America 0.9 billion € 3.3% Central and Eastern Europe 4.5 billion € 17.1% *) In addition to goods exports the sector exported services worth 10.9 billion euros. Source: National Board of Customs, Statistics Finland
  • 7. 11.2.20167 Turnover of the Industry and Technology Industry in Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
  • 8. 11.2.20168 Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
  • 9. 11.2.20169 Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry* in Finland 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 Combined Export Domestic Million euros, at current prices Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information October-December 2015 *) Excluding metals industry and game industry companies. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015 Export: -13 % -5 % Domestic: +8 % +24 % Combined: -8 % +2 %
  • 10. 11.2.201610 Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry* in Finland 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 Export Domestic Million euros, at current prices Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 31.12.2015 *) Excluding metals industry and game industry companies. Combined Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015 Export: +18 % +3 % Domestic: +7 % +4 % Combined: +15 % +3 % 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 11. Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey, latest information January 2016. “Have you experienced a notable increase or decrease in the number of requests for tenders in recent weeks in comparison to the situation three months ago?”. Balance figure = the number of companies receiving more requests - the number of companies receiving less requests. -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Balance figure 11.2.201611 Tender Requests* Received by Technology Industry Companies in Finland 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • 12. 11.2.201612 Value of New Orders in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Combined Export Domestic Million euros, at current prices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015 Export: -21 % +15 % Domestic: +9 % +15 % Combined: -18 % +15 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information October-December 2015
  • 13. 11.2.201613 Value of Order Books in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 Export Domestic Combined Million euros, at current prices Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 30.9.2015 Export: -13 % +7 % Domestic: +6 % +4 % Combined: -11 % +7 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 31.12.2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 14. 11.2.201614 Value on New Orders in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Combined Export Domestic Million euros, at current prices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015 Export: -1 % -20 % Domestic: +11 % +45 % Combined: +2 % -11 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information October-December 2015
  • 15. 11.2.201615 Value of Order Books in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 Export Domestic Combined Million euros, at current prices Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 30.9.2015 Export: +36 % +2 % Domestic: +3 % +2 % Combined: +28 % +2 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 31.12.2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 16. 11.2.201616 Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering in Finland 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Combined Export Domestic Million euros, at current prices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015 Export: -26 % +42 % Domestic: -14 % +20 % Combined: -15 % +23 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information October-August 2015
  • 17. 11.2.201617 Value of Order Books in the Consulting Engineering in Finland 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Export Domestic Combined Million euros, at current prices Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 31.12.2015 Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015 Export: -20 % -10 % Domestic: +16 % -1 % Combined: +9 % -2 % 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 18. 11.2.201618 Value of New Orders in the Information Technology in Finland 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Million euros, at current prices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: IV,2015 / IV,2014 IV,2015 / III,2015 Combined: +3 % +14 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information October-December 2015 *) Excl. game industry companies
  • 19. 11.2.201619 Value of Order Books in the Information Technology in Finland 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Million euros, at current prices 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change: 31.12.2015 / 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 / 31.9.2015 Combined: +11 % +7 % Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 31.12.2015 *) Excl. game industry companies
  • 20. 11.2.201620 Personnel in the Technology Industry 150,000 170,000 190,000 210,000 230,000 250,000 270,000 290,000 310,000 330,000 350,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Personnel in Finland Personnel in subsidiaries abroad Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey Some 17,000 of personnel affected by temporary or part-time lay-offs 31.12.2015
  • 21. 11.2.201621 Technology Industry Personnel in Finland by Branch 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry Metals industry Consulting engineering Information technology Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’labour force survey
  • 22. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry Metals industry Consulting engineering Information technology 11.2.201622 Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries Abroad by Branch Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
  • 23. Retirement of Technology Industry Personnel 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Number of individuals retired Number of individuals retiring (estimation) Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland Individuals per year Salaried employees Blue collar employees 11.2.201623
  • 24. Retirement of Technology Industry Blue Collar Employees 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Mechanical engineering Metals industry Electronics and electrotechnical industry Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland Individuals per year 11.2.201624
  • 25.  - Finland is in the grip of structural change. Development remains uneven between companies.  - Turnover in Finland increased slightly in 2015. Turnover totalled EUR 67.7 billion. In the pre-crisis year 2008 it was EUR 86 billion.  - The monetary value of new orders reported between October-December 2015 was 8 % lower than in the corresponding period in 2014, but 2 % higher than in the preceding quarter.  - At the end of December, the value of order books was 15 % higher year-on-year, and 3 % higher the value reported at the end of September.  - The turnover of technology industry companies in early 2016 is expected to remain at the same level or a slightly lower level as in the corresponding period last year.  - Since 2008, personnel numbers in Finland have shrunk by 44,000 employees, totalling on average 282,000 in 2015. Economic Outlook in the Technology Industry 11.2.201625
  • 26. Global Economy Grows, but Outlook Is Uncertain 11.2.201626
  • 27. 11.2.201627 GDP is Growing in Western Europe and USA , Except in Finland Source: Macrobond
  • 28. 11.2.201628 Growth is Lowering in China Recession Continues in Russia and Brazil Share of global GDP in these countries is 23%, in China 16% (adjusted for PP) Source: Macrobond
  • 29. GDP Growth Has Continued in Eurozone in January 2016 Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI), 50 = no change from previous month Latest information January 2016. Source: Markit 11.2.201629
  • 30. Industrial Production Volume Source: Macrobond 11.2.201630
  • 31. Industrial Production Volume in EU Countries Source: Macrobond 11.2.201631
  • 32. 11.2.201632 Global Industrial Production Growth has Slowed Down Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
  • 33. 11.2.201633 Industrial Production in China is Dropping Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in China 50 = no change from previous month Latest information January 2016. Source: Markit
  • 34. Industrial Production in Russia is Dropping Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia 50 = no change from previous month Latest information January 2016. Source: Markit 11.2.201634
  • 35. Industrial Production in Brazil is Dropping Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia 50 = no change from previous month Latest information January 2016. Source: Markit 11.2.201635
  • 36. 11.2.201636 Industrial Production in USA is Dropping Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia 50 = no change from previous month Lähde: Macrobond
  • 37. 11.2.201637 Growth of Residence Construction Has Finished in China Share of China in Asian GDP is 42% (adjusted for PP) Source: Macrobond
  • 38. 11.2.201638 Fixed Investments in Russia and Brazil are Falling Share of Russia in European GDP is 13% (adjusted for PP) Share of Brazil in Latin American GDP is 35% (adjusted for PP) Source: Macrobond
  • 39. 11.2.201639 Import to Emerging Countries Has Lowered Import volume development Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
  • 40. 11.2.201640 Import to China Has Reduced from Other Countries Source: Macrobond
  • 41. Exports from EU Countries to Russia is Falling Source: Macrobond 11.2.201641
  • 43. 11.2.201643 Raw Material Prices are Falling Spot prices of hot-rolled coils 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 01/2005 01/2006 01/2007 01/2008 01/2009 01/2010 01/2011 01/2012 01/2013 01/2014 01/2015 USA Germany Russia China Brazil US dollars / ton Latest information December 2015 Source: CRU
  • 44. 11.2.201644 Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries are Varying Euro exchange rate compared to other currencies Source: Macrobond
  • 45. 11.2.201645 Global Economy is Expected to Grow by 3.4 % in 2016 GDP growth in 2016, % Source: IMF (January 2016) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 North America Western Europe Japan China India Rest of Asia RestofEastern Europe Russia Brazil Mexico RestofLatin America MiddleEastandAfrica The width of the bar indicates the share of global GDP in 2014 (adjusted for purchasing power parity), % Average growth: +3,4 %
  • 46. 11.2.201646 Source IMF (January 2016), Board of Customs -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 North America Western Europe Japan China India Rest of Asia RestofEastern Europe Russia BrazilMexico RestofLatinAmerica MiddleEastandAfrica The width of the bar indicates the export share of technology industry from Finland in 2014, % Average growth: +2,3 % Export Demand for Technology Industry in Finland Will Grow by 2.3% in 2016 GDP growth in 2016, %
  • 47. Breakdown of World Industrial Production 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Asia North America Europe Purchasing power parity adjusted shares. Source: Maddison (Historical Statistics), IMF and ETLA % 11.2.201647
  • 48. Industrial Production Development by Year Source: Macrobond 11.2.201648
  • 49. The Big Challenge for Finland after 2008 11.2.201649
  • 50. Finnish Exports up to EUR 30 Billion Short of Annual Target Level Source: Macronond, Statistics Finland / National Accounts11.2.201650
  • 51. Finnish Exports Lagging Behind Competitors Source: Macrobond, Eurostat11.2.201651
  • 52. The Share of Industry in GDP in Finland 1900-2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Industry* Industry + service sectors in the technology industry *) During 1900-1974 industry covers also mines, energy, water and refuse collection sectors. Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts 11.2.201652
  • 53. 11.2.201653 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Industrial production ability (production with capacity in full use), left. Scale Industrial production (2008=100), left scale Capacity utilization rate, %, right scale -20% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -21% Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts, Industrial volume index Finland’s Industrial Production Will not Regain the Level of 2008 with the Present Production Capacity Finland’s production capasity has decreased by 20%
  • 54. Growth of Public Debt and Tax Rate Out of Control Increased cost burden requires cuts to public sector Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland 11.2.201654
  • 55. 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e Corporate sector fixed investments, index 2005=100 Sweden The Netherlands USA Germany Switzerland Finland 11.2.201655 Upswing of Investments Required in Finland Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 2015
  • 56. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e Manufacturing industry Technology industry Industrial Companies’ Investment Plans Indicate an Increase in Investments Both in 2015 and 2016 Industrial fixed and R&D investments in Finland Source: Statistics Finland, Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey (January 2016) Million euros, at current prices 11.2.201656
  • 57. 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Manufacturing industry Technology industry National economy Turning Point of Productivity* Development in Finland After 2008 Finland has lost considerable volume production in electronics, forest and machinery industries** Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts *) Productivity is measured as real value added per hours worked. When productivity grows (the curve rises) value added grows more than hours worked. Value added = turnover – purchasing of materials and services Value added = labour costs + rents + depreciations + profits **) The structure of current industry does not enable the similar productivity development as during the years 2000-2008 11.2.201657 Index, 2000=100
  • 58. 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Compared to Belgium Compared to Germany Compared to Spain Compared to Italy Compared to the Netherlands Compared to Austria Compared to Finland *) In the ECB Harmonised Competitiveness Index, the average effective exchange rate of each country is calculated vis-à-vis 20 to 30 main trade partners, as well as the development of unit labour costs for the total economy. Latest information III/2015. Source: European Central Bank Finland’s price and cost competitiveness declines 2005,I =100 Finland’s price and cost competitiveness improves Unit Labour Costs at the National Economy Level Unit labour costs = labour costs / productivity, including the influence of effective exchange rates 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11.2.201658
  • 59.  Support the renewal of the industry  Taxes should support growth and investment in Finland  Support decision making in companies related to compensation and working time  No new European nor national burdens on companies, which are deteriorating the competitiveness What should be done? 11.2.201659
  • 60.  Global Structural Change Set to Continue Apace – Industrial production and services will relocate to rapidly developing economic areas – Strong growth, large markets, cheap labour and increasing expertise will increase the attractiveness of these regions.  Competition over Skills and Raw Materials Set to Increase – Due to an increase in retirement, the sector’s annual recruitment need in Finland will rise considerably in the coming years. – The availability of reasonably-priced energy also threatens to become an investment bottleneck in Finland  Combating Climate Change – A challenge as costs are set to grow faster than in competitor countries – An opportunity for new environmental and energy technologies Long-Term Outlook and Challenges 11.2.201660
  • 61. The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries 11.2.201661
  • 62. The Federation’s Member Companies 2014 62 71,069 38% 28,089 14% 25,997 17% 58,617 31% 1,439 91% 80 5% 46 3% 23 1% Number of enteprises / 1 583 Number of personnel / 183 772 1–249 employees 250–499 employees 500–999 employees 1000– employees Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries11.2.2016
  • 63. 63 The Federation’s SME Member Companies 2014 506 35% 475 33% 258 18% 206 14% Number of enterprises / 1 439 Number of personnel / 71 069 1–19 employees 20–49 employees 50–99 employees 100–249 employees 5,261 7% 15,047 21% 18,263 27% 32,498 45% Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries 11.2.2016