Dr Tayo Aduloju Presentation to the Nigerian Economic Summit in October 2015

1. Sustainable Solutions For
PEACE AND
THREATS TO HUMAN
SECURITY
BY DR. TAYO ADULOJU
Director, Public Sector Practice

2. National
Planning
Commission
“insuring freedom from want
and freedom from fear for all
persons is the best path to
tackle the problem of global
insecurity”
UNDP 1994 Human Development Report
ORIGINS

3. National
Planning
Commission
• Human Security and Peace form the fundamentals of the
preferred Ideal Human Condition and the quest for
societies to achieve them will determine their overall
sustainability.
• Dr. Mahbub ul Haq first drew global attention to the
concept of human security in the United Nations
Development Programme's 1994 Human Development
Report and sought to influence the UN's 1995 World
Summit on Social Development in Copenhagen.
• The UNDP's 1994 Human Development Report's
definition of human security argues that the scope of
global security should be expanded to include threats in
seven areas
ORIGINS
Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

4. National
Planning
Commission
SUSTAINABLE PEACE SOLUTIONS RELATES TO KEY HUMAN SECURITY
THREATS THAT UNDERMINE FREEDOM FROM WANT AND FREEDOM
FROM FEAR
Economic
security
ECONOMIC
SECURITY
REQUIRES AN
ASSURED BASIC
INCOME FOR
INDIVIDUALS,
USUALLY FROM
PRODUCTIVE AND
REMUNERATIVE
WORK OR A FUNDED
SOCIAL SAFETY NET.
Food
security
FOOD SECURITY
REQUIRES THAT ALL
PEOPLE AT ALL
TIMES HAVE BOTH
PHYSICAL AND
ECONOMIC ACCESS
TO BASIC FOOD.
Health
security
HEALTH SECURITY
AIMS TO
GUARANTEE A
MINIMUM
PROTECTION FROM
DISEASES AND
UNHEALTHY LIFESTY
LES.

5. National
Planning
Commission
SUSTAINABLE PEACE SOLUTIONS RELATES TO KEY HUMAN SECURITY
THREATS THAT UNDERMINE FREEDOM FROM WANT AND FREEDOM
FROM FEAR
Environmental
security
ENVIRONMENTAL
SECURITY AIMS TO
PROTECT PEOPLE
FROM THE SHORT-
AND LONG-TERM
RAVAGES OF
NATURE, MAN-MADE
THREATS IN
NATURE, AND
DETERIORATION OF
THE ENVIRONMENT.
Personal
security
PERSONAL SECURITY
AIMS TO PROTECT
PEOPLE FROM
PHYSICAL VIOLENCE,
WHETHER FROM THE
STATE OR EXTERNAL
STATES, FROM
VIOLENT INDIVIDUALS
AND SUB-STATE
ACTORS,
FROM DOMESTIC
ABUSE, OR FROM
PREDATORY ADULTS.
Community
security
COMMUNITY
SECURITY AIMS TO
PROTECT PEOPLE
FROM THE LOSS OF
TRADITIONAL RELATI
ONSHIPS AND
VALUES AND FROM
SECTARIAN AND
ETHNIC VIOLENCE.
Political
security
POLITICAL
SECURITY IS
CONCERNED WITH
WHETHER PEOPLE
LIVE IN A SOCIETY
THAT HONOURS
THEIR BASIC HUMAN
RIGHTS.

6. National
Planning
Commission
ORIGINS

7. National
Planning
Commission
HUMAN SECURITY AND NATIONAL SECURITY SHOULD BE AND
OFTEN ARE MUTUALLY REINFORCING. BUT SECURE STATES
DO NOT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN SECURE PEOPLES.
CORRELATION TO SUSTAINABLE PEACE AND NATIONAL
SECURITY
NATIONAL
SECURITY
DEFENSE
SECURITY
INTERNAL
(HOMELAND)
SECURITY
HUMAN
SECURITY
DIMENSION
S
SPHERE OF PEACE

8. SAMPLING OF HUMAN
SECURITY THREATS AND
HARMS
(CHRONOLOGY OF HARMS STORY
BOARDS)
Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

9. National
Planning
Commission
Peace building is an
intervention that is
designed to prevent
the start or
resumption of violent
conflict by creating a
sustainable peace.
Peace building activities
address the root causes or
potential causes of violence,
create a societal expectation for
peaceful conflict resolution and
stabilize society politically and
socioeconomically.
Peace building by design is
mapped to the Threats and
Risks to Peace itself
“PEACE AS A STATE OF
AFFAIRS
PRECEDES PEACE AS A
STATE OF MIND”
CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ, 1834

10. Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Line of
Prevention
(Allocation of
Resources )
Preventive Actions
Preventive Actions
Reactive
Actions
Oil
Spillage
Ethnic
Conflicts and
Violence
Low
Environmental
Remediation
High
Environmental
Degradation
Loss of
Livelihoods
High
Unemployment
Rate
Growing
Communal
Distrust
Increase in
Cultism
Proliferation of
small arms and
light weapons
Breakdown of
Social Justice
Structures
Increase
Political
Violence
Increase Gang
Violence
Oil and Gas
Asset
Vandalism
Niger Delta
Economic
Destabilization
Niger Delta
Militancy
Corruption
Oil Theft
Environmental
Activism
Activism
Suppression
NIGER-DELTA INSURGENCY AT 2007 STORYBOARD: WHEN A BROADER SET OF STAKEHOLDERS DO NOT CREATE A
ROBUST COOPERATION AND PROBLEM SOLVING FRAMEWORK TO DO SOMETHING
Unsustainable
Legal
Framework for
Oil and Gas
Destruction of
critical
national
infrastructure
Oil and Gas
Industry
Revenue
decline
NEW
CONSEQUENC
ES

11. National
Planning
Commission

12. Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Line of
Prevention
(Allocation of
Resources )
Preventive Actions
Preventive Actions
Reactive
Actions
NORTH-EASTERN NIGERIA SUSTAINABILITY AT 2014 STORYBOARD: WHEN A BROADER SET OF STAKEHOLDERS DO
NOT CREATE A ROBUST COOPERATION AND PROBLEM SOLVING FRAMEWORK TO DO SOMETHING
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Security
Threats
Preventive Actions
Reactive
Actions
Desertification
Increase In
Global
Terrorism
Movement
Low
Environmental
Remediation
Elimination of
Grazing Belts
and Lands
Loss of
Livelihoods
High Migration
of Herdsmen
Southward
Reduction in
Arable Land
Increase in
Herdsmen/Settler
Clashes
Proliferation of
small arms and
light weapons
Growth of
Almajeri
Population
Decrease in
Education
Security Increase
Radicalization
Extrajudicial
Killing
Socio-Economic
Detsabilization of
North Eastern
Region
Rise of North-
East
Insurgency
Corruption
Increase in
Herdsmen/
Settler Clashes
Elimination of
Fish
Population
Reduction in
Volume of
Livestock
Drying Up of
Lake Chad
Reduction in
Border
Security
Increase in
Vulnerable
Population
Access to
Radical Militia
Training and
Teaching
Increase in
Armed
Robberies
Mass Atrocities
Escalation
Destruction of
critical
national
infrastructure
NEW
CONSEQUENC
ES

13. “ Intelligence is
the soul of all
public business “
- DANIEL DEFOE (1704)

14. National
Planning
Commission
• LACK OF EFFECTIVE COOPERATION FRAMEWORK FOR
CONTROLLING THREATS;
• LACK OF EFFECT HUMAN SECURITY THREAT INTELLIGENCE,
DATA GATHERING AND ANALYTICS FOR ROBUST POLICY AND
STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING;
• SYSTEMIC DISCONNECT BETWEEN EXISTING DATA AND
INTELLIGENCE POOLS AND OPERATORS IN THE NIGERIAN
SPACE;
• WEAK INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR HUMAN SECURITY
THREAT EARLY WARNING SIGNALS, ESCALATION, RESPONSE
PREPAREDNESS AND CAPABILITIES;
• WEAK FEEDBACK ON IMPACT REPORTING OF HUMAN
SECURITY THREAT REDUCTION.
HUMAN SECURITY CONTROLS THAT HAVE FAILED

15. SAMPLING BEST
PRACTICES FOR
SUSTAINABLE PEACE AND
HUMAN SECURITY
Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

16. National
Planning
Commission
Mobilize
Stakeholder
s for Broad
Based
Action
And
Review
Progress
Organize
Stakeholders
Around
Threat
Groupings
And
Priorities
Organize Solutions
and Structure
around Threat
Groupings
SUSTAINABLE
PEACE AND
HUMAN
SECURITY
Map and Scope
the Threats
Intelligence and
Data Gathering
Threat Severity
Framework
Impact
Reporting and
Horizon
Scanning
Framework
Monitoring and
Evaluation
Framework
Execution
Management
Framework
Stakeholder
Accountability
Framework for
Action on
Threat
Reduction
Programme
Level
Logical
Framework:
Objectives to
Impact
Fact-Based
Threat
Reduction
Solution
Design
Resourcing
Framework
Communication
Framework
Cooperation
Framework
Analytics and
Trend Coupling
and Pattern
Recognition
Threat Groupings
And
Priorities
WE ARE NOW
SEEING A MORE
RISK BASED
APPROACH TO
MANAGING AND
REDUCING
THREATS
TO PEACE AND
HUMAN SECURITY
SUCCESS CASE: GOVERNMENT’S
RESPONSE TO EBOLA EPIDEMIC

17. POINTS OF EMINENT
THREATS : SOME
APPLICATIONS TO STORY
BOARD CASES
Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

18. National
Planning
Commission
TERRORISM
HERDSMEN RELATED
VIOLENCE
NIGER DELTA
MILITANCY
VANDALISATION TO
NATIONAL CRITICAL
ASSETS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE

19. National
Planning
Commission
“At the heart of a new
regulatory craftsmanship
lies the ability to pick
important problems and fix
them”
Malcolm K. Sparrow, Author of Character of Harms, the
Regulatory Craft and Harvard Professor

20. THANK YOU
Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group