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Are you likely to be hit by a drone? (by Anders La Cour-Harbo)

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At TUS Nordics 2017, Anders La Cour-Harbo gave the presentation ‘Are you likely to be hit by a drone?’ in our Security & Safety track, on Thursday 12 October 2017.

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie
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Are you likely to be hit by a drone? (by Anders La Cour-Harbo)

  1. 1. ARE YOU LIKELY TO BE HIT BY A DRONE? AND KILLED … OCTOBER, 2017 Anders la Cour-Harbo Associate Professor Manager of Drone Research Lab DRONE RESEARCH LAB
  2. 2. Aviation Commercia l 73 Offshore 9 Aerial work 20 Non- commercial 94 Balloons 2 Gliders 26 RPAS 0 Source: EASA Annual Safety Review 2016 Average number of deaths in aviation in Europe 2005-2015
  3. 3. Drone target values General aviation fatalities US & EURO: Commercial aviation fatalities US & EURO: Drones expected recommendation EURO: 10-5 fatalities per flight hour 10-7 fatalities per flight hour 10-6 fatalities per flight hour Max 1 fatality per 1.000.000 drone flight hours for each single drone flight
  4. 4. Example Probability of fatality – made simple Probability of impacting a person Person density – area of person Probability of fatal injury from impact Speed – mass – angle – front area Probability of fatality per flight hour Preferably < 10-6 Probability of loss of control Wing breaks, loss of power, autopilot haywire Probability of crash Ballistic – uncontrolled glide – fly away 1/100 h 20% 0.1% 50% = 10-6
  5. 5. BVLOS FastTrack
  6. 6. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight Penguin C aircraft Transport flight from Kolding to Aalborg, 180 km
  7. 7. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight
  8. 8. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight Low population density High population density
  9. 9. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – descent types Fly-away Uncontrolled glide Parachute descent Ballistic descent
  10. 10. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – descent types Flyaway
  11. 11. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – assumptions
  12. 12. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – fatalities per flight hour
  13. 13. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – results ALL the gory details are presented in article: [1] la Cour-Harbo. Quantifying ground impact fatality rate for small unmanned aircraft. Submitted to Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems, 2017. [2] la Cour-Harbo. Ground impact probability distribution for small unmanned aircraft in ballistic descent. Submitted to Reliability Engineering and Safety Analysis, 2017. [3] la Cour-Harbo, Quantifying risk of ground impact fatalities of power line inspection BVLOS flight with small unmanned aircraft. IEEE Intl. Conference of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Miami, 2017.
  14. 14. ASSURE project Human drone impact
  15. 15. ASSURE project Drone in jet engine
  16. 16. Drone aircraft impact Douglas Cairns, Montana State University, US Ian Horsfall, Cranfield University, UK
  17. 17. Midair collision probability – coming in Jan 2018 𝑓 = 4𝑟𝑛𝑇𝑣 𝐺 𝑟 Frequency of “impact” (safety zones intersect) when all are flying at same altitude n Number of GA aircraft T Fraction of time airborne (h/year) v Speed of GA aircraft G Size of region for which n applies 𝑓 = 4 ∙ 100 ∙ 1500 ∙ 250 8760 ∙ 50 43,100,000,000 ∙ 3600 = 0.072 𝑣 Giving one impact per 14 flight hours. [4] la Cour-Harbo, Bertrand, Schiøler. Modelling probability of impact between general aviation and small unmanned aircraft. Working paper. Submission to Risk Analysis.
  18. 18. SafeEye – IFD project Overall principle of SafeEye Supervise the flight and automatically assist in emergencies.
  19. 19. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish
  20. 20. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish
  21. 21. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish [5] la Cour-Harbo. The value of step-by-step risk assessment. Working paper. Submission to Risk Analysis 2018.
  22. 22. DRONE RESEARCH LAB ARE YOU LIKELY TO BE HIT BY A DRONE? Anders la Cour-Harbo alc@es.aau.dk

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