1. Emerging Currency Risks for Sugar, Grains
and Ethanol Market Participants
Brussels – November 2019
Eddie Tofpik (MSTA, ACI-UK)
Head of Technical Analysis & Senior Markets Analyst
ADM Investor Services International Limited

2. Before we start…
properly…

3. A Message from my Compliance Director
Diarmuid O’Hegarty

4. “Please kindly let everyone know…that what you are about to
present are your own personal thoughts and views…
…and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels Midland, Wild Flavors,
Probiotics, Neovia or ANY other part of the ADM Group…”
A Message from my Compliance Director
Diarmuid O’Hegarty

5. “Please kindly let everyone know…that what you are about to
present are your own personal thoughts and views…
…and not those of ADM, Archer Daniels Midland, Wild Flavors,
Probiotics, Neovia or ANY other part of the ADM Group…’’
“…now get on with it…”
A Message from my Compliance Director
Diarmuid O’Hegarty

6. Technical Analysis of some
Major Currency Pairs…
…as well as…
…Brent Crude Oil, Paris Rapeseed
& Paris Milling Wheat Futures

7. We’ll start with…

8. We’ll start with…
EURUSD

9. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
These are some of the
Charts I work with…
…every day…

10. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Interestingly…this is a little
less complex than some of
the other ones…

11. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
So what are the main elements?

12. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The 2023 Bull Channel, has
been running the market
(currently 1.0800 – 1.1205)

13. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The 2023 Bull Channel, has
been running the market
(currently 1.0800 – 1.1205)
Despite the False Break higher in July…and
the undecided break last week…

14. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The July 2017 – November 2018
H&S Neckline has in the past
played a significant role…

15. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The July 2017 – November 2018
H&S Neckline has in the past
played a significant role…
It seemingly failed over the Summer…but
I’d still keep an eye on it (1.1070)

16. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
We have a New Bear Channel
from August…
(currently 1.0625 – 1.0825)

17. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
We have a New Bear Channel
from August…
(currently 1.0625 – 1.0825)
First real test of this, will be when and if…
prices reach supports at 1.0650 & 1.0550

18. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
We have a New Bear Channel
from August…
(currently 1.0625 – 1.0825)
First real test of this, will be when and if…
prices reach supports at 1.0650 & 1.0550
I pause now…for any questions…

19. Next…
GBPUSD (…aka Cable)

20. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The most recent action has been the Bull Channel…that
became a Rising Wedge Pattern.

21. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Prices made a false break higher in July…

22. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Prices made a false break higher in July…but it was the true
break lower in early August…that has seen the move…

23. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Prices made a false break higher in July…but it was the true
break lower in early August…that has seen the move…and it
was the Weekly Key Reversal Down in late August…that
confirmed it.

24. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Thus…we have a Primary Target ‘X’ below in the 1.2410 area…
and a harder to reach Secondary Target ‘X1’ in the 1.1605 area.

25. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
However…the market has now halted at a significant
support…the Long MA (currently 1.2433), just ahead of the
Target ‘X’. This may be enough???

26. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
However…the market has now halted at a significant
support…the Long MA (currently 1.2433), just ahead of the
Target ‘X’. This may be enough???
I pause now…for any questions…

27. Next…
USDJPY

28. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
My USDJPY Chart…and also my
theory on Japanese products…

29. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
In the meantime…this market has been the
story of Pitchforks, sometimes known as the
Median Line Method.

30. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
I will not detail the whole of Median Line Theory...
but I will detail the THREE Pitchforks, that are
running this market…

31. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
1) The February 2022 – January 2023 Bullish Schiff
Pitchfork, between the Middle Tine above (currently
150.95) and the Lower Tine below (currently 136.85).

32. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
1) The February 2022 – January 2023 Bullish Schiff
Pitchfork, between the Middle Tine above (currently
150.95) and the Lower Tine below (currently 136.85).
This is the overall Bullish Angle of Attack…

33. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
2) The mid January – late March Bullish Andrews
Pitchfork. The market ran between the Lower &
Middle Tines until early July…when it broke down
and out of it…but has since run under the outside…

34. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
3) The late March – mid July Bullish Andrews
Pitchfork. The market is between the Lower & Middle
Tines (currently 144.25 – 149.00)…mainly just under
the Middle Tine.

35. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Things to watch out for…a Tine Crossover around
the 17th of October…

36. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Things to watch out for…a Tine Crossover around
the 17th of October…
I pause now…for any questions…

37. Next…
Brent Crude Oil Futures…

38. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
This market has gone from the Basing Action of
a Rectangle Pattern…into a Rectangle Pattern
with a Quad Bottom…into a Bull Channel…that
finished in mid August.

39. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
In mid August…the market has arguably formed
a Bullish Halfway Hesitation…with potential up
to the USD 98.00 area.

40. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
In the process of forming the 2nd Leg of the
Bullish Halfway hesitation…it has utilised the
Middle Tine of the late June – late August
Bullish Andrews Pitchfork (currently 93.50) to
show the Angle of Attack.

41. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
In the process of forming the 2nd Leg of the
Bullish Halfway hesitation…it has utilised the
Middle Tine of the late June – late August
Bullish Andrews Pitchfork (currently 93.50) to
show the Angle of Attack.
I pause now…for any questions…

42. Next…
Paris Rapeseed Futures…

43. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
There is a lot going on here…

44. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The market has exited on the downside
from an Ascending Triangle…and
achieved it’s Primary Target potential.

45. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The Secondary Target potential…is down
amongst the congestion 438.00 – 445 ½ .
This will be harder to reach…

46. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The Secondary Target potential…is down
amongst the congestion 438.00 – 445 ½ .
This will be harder to reach…especially
as a significant Uptrend (currently 442 ¾ )
is in the midst of it.

47. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
We also have potential now for a Bull
Channel…and an unusual…some say not
appropriate…H&S construction (no idea
yet if this will happen…or if it is a topping
action or a continuation action).

48. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The market is currently hung up on the
flatlining Medium MA (currently 454.00) in
a mildly Bullish Channel. Longer
Term…there is another potential
Pattern…

49. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The market is currently hung up on the
flatlining Medium MA (currently 454.00) in
a mildly Bullish Channel. Longer
Term…there is another potential
Pattern…a possible Descending Scallop
Pattern…but it is still to early to tell.

50. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The market is currently hung up on the
flatlining Medium MA (currently 454.00) in
a mildly Bullish Channel. Longer
Term…there is another potential
Pattern…a possible Descending Scallop
Pattern…but it is still to early to tell.
I pause now…for any questions…

51. Finally…
Paris Milling Wheat
Futures…

52. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The key Pattern here is the June 2022-to-date Bear Channel.

53. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The key Pattern here is the June 2022-to-date Bear Channel.
There is also the possibility of a Descending Scallop Pattern
here…but it is still early!

54. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
The recent action has been dominated by the
Congestion levels both above & below the market.

55. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Above…250 ½ - 254 ½, 258 ½ - 259 ¾ (which has the
Long MA within [currently 259 ¼]) & 287 – 270 ¼.
Below…238 ¼ - 242 (which has the flatlining Medium
MA within [currently 240 ½]), the key 234 ¼ & 227 ¼
levels.

56. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Above…250 ½ - 254 ½, 258 ½ - 259 ¾ (which has the
Long MA within [currently 259 ¼]) & 287 – 270 ¼.
Below…238 ¼ - 242 (which has the flatlining Medium
MA within [currently 240 ½]), the key 234 ¼ & 227 ¼
levels.
Finally…a possible
Weekly Key
Reversal?

57. Data and Charting Package : Refinitiv Eikon (…but these are MY Charts!)
Above…250 ½ - 254 ½, 258 ½ - 259 ¾ (which has the
Long MA within [currently 259 ¼]) & 287 – 270 ¼.
Below…238 ¼ - 242 (which has the flatlining Medium
MA within [currently 240 ½]), the key 234 ¼ & 227 ¼
levels.
I pause now…for any questions…
Finally…a possible
Weekly Key
Reversal?

58. These area my FREE Daily & Weekly Videos where you
can find further Technical Analysis of markets.

59. These area my FREE Longer Term (Annual) Videos where
you can find further Technical Analysis of markets.

60. I am mindful that time is short…so…

61. …here’s the FINAL bit….

62. …here’s the FINAL bit…….errr...
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63. …here REALLY is the final bit….

64. +44 20 7716 8201
eddie.tofpik@admisi.com
@EddieTofpik
Eddie’s Crayons...
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