SustainabilityConnect, March 2, 2015 Afternoon Panel: Designing Tomorrow’s Campus: Resiliency, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

1. M a r c h 2 , 2 0 1 5
1
A F T E R N O O N PA N E L

2. Designing
Tomorrow’s
Campus
Resiliency,
Vulnerability
& Adaptation to
Climate Change

3. 06
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Resiliency, Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change
Anne Slinn (Moderator) Executive
Director for Research, MIT Center for
Global Change Science
Anne has been helping to organize MIT’s
interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, and
international research on global change challenges
for over 20 years. She is a current member of the
MIT Conversation on Climate Change Committee.
Kleinfelder Associates
Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead
Kleinfelder is a team of engineers, architects, and
scientists based in Cambridge, MA. Kleinfelder is
currently completing a Vulnerability Assessment
for the City of Cambridge.
James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr.
Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture
Bert Bland
Associate VP & Director, Energy and
Sustainability, Cornell University
Bert leads the Energy and Sustainability office within
Cornell's Facility Services Department, overseeing
energy, sustainability, and utilities management for
campus. Bert also leads the transformation of the
campus to a living laboratory for sustainable
practices in all campus operations.
Jim is the Aga Khan Professor for the Department of
Architecture. His research concentrates on
sustainable water and landscape design in South Asia
and the U.S. from the site to river basin scales.

4. 4
The Cambridge
Context: Understanding
Risks and Community
Preparedness
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead
Cambridge Vulnerability Assessment
Kleinfelder Associates

5. City of Cambridge
Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment and
Preparedness Plan
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SUSTAINABILITYCONNECT2015
March 2, 2015

6. • Current design criteria based on past events.
• Past is no longer a reliable indicator of present or future
conditions.
• A science-based approach can help the city identify and
understand vulnerabilities to changes in temperature,
precipitation, and sea level.
How do you manage the uncertainty about future
climate to plan & design effectively ?
The Challenge

7. Priority-
planning
areas
Project’s Framework
Step 1
Climate Projections
Scenario
Development
Step 2
Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
Step 3
Preparedness Plan
Low Medium High Very High
LowMediumHigh
Preparedness
Plan
………………………..

8. MassDOT ADCIRC
modeling
Update on Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge
• 2030s: Charles River Dam
unlikely to be overtopped,
unlikely impact on Cambridge
• 2050-2070: Charles River Dam
becoming more likely to be
overtopped, likely impact of
Cambridge
• Preliminary findings: Modeling
being finalized for 2070s
Source: MassDOT/Woods Hole Group

9. Precipitation Projections
Trends
• Total annual precipitation will not change
• Summer will be dryer and winter ‘wetter’ (more rain less snow)
• Today’s 25 yr storm = 2070’s 10 yr storm
• Today’s 100 yr storm = 2070’s 25 yr storm
Flooding Scenarios
2030s & 2070s: 10 year (low) & 100 year (high) 24-hour design storms
Precipitation Changes
Baseline 2030s
(2015-2044)
2070s
(2055-2084)1971-2000
24-hr design storms
Low: 10 yr (inches) 4.9 5.6 6.4
25 yr (inches) 6.2 7.3 8.2
High: 100 yr (inches) 8.9 10.2 11.7

10. Precipitation Projections
Flooding Scenarios
2030s, 2070s: 10 year (low) and 100 year (high) 24-hour design storms

11. (8.9 inches over 24 hours)
Inland Flooding – Present
High Scenario
Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB

12. (10.2 inches over 24 hours)
Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB
Inland Flooding – 2030s
High Scenario

13. (11.7 inches over 24 hours)
Inland Flooding – 2070s
High Scenario
Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB

14. Inland Flooding Scenario – 2070s HighInland Flooding – 2070s
High Scenario

15. Temperature Projections
Trends
• Average annual temperature will be higher
• By 2030s it is likely that days above 90oF will tripled
• By 2070s it is likely that days above 90oF will increase six fold
Heatwave Scenarios
• 2030s: 4 consecutive days at 90oF (built) and 4 consecutive days heat index at
96oF (social)
• 2070s: 5 consecutive days at 90oF, incl. 3 days at 100oF (built) and 5
consecutive days heat index at 100oF , incl. 3 days at 115oF (social)
Temperature Changes
Baseline 2030s (2015-2044) 2070s (2055-2084)
1971-2000 Lower Higher Lower Higher
Days > 90o
F (days/year) 11 29 31 47 68
Days > 100o
F (days/year) <1 2 2 6 16
Heat Index (o
F) 85 95 96 101 115

16. Temperature ProjectionsTemperature Projections

17. Heat Index - Present Conditions
“Feels-like” temperature variability when ambient
temperature is 83°F day (8/30/2010 at 11:15am)

18. Heat Index - 2030s Scenario
for Social Environment
“Feels-like” temperature variability on a day when heat index is 96°F
(90oF with relative humidity 50 – 55%)
4 Consecutive Days
With Heat Index At 96oF

19. Heat Index - 2070s Scenario
for Social Environment
5 Consecutive Days
With Heat Index At
100oF
Including 3 Days With
Heat Index At 115oF
“Feels-like” temperature variability on a day when heat index is 115°F
110oF ~ (90oF with 60-65% RH) 115oF ~ (100oF with 45-50% RH)

20. Preliminary Key Findings
• Heat vulnerability and inland flooding are more imminent
− Extreme heat events are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration.
− Precipitation driven flooding is likely to increase in frequency, extent, and depth.
• Cambridge is unlikely to be impacted by sea level rise or
storm surges by 2030, due to flood protection from both the
Charles River and Amelia Earhart dams

21. Step 1
Climate Projections
Scenario
Step 2
Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
Step 3
Preparedness Plan
Step 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Priority-
planning
areas
Preparedness
Plan
Low Medium High Very High
LowMediumHigh

22. The Built Environment
• Energy
• Transportation
• Water
• Telecommunication
• Critical Services
• The Urban Forest
The Social Environment
• Public Health
• Community Resources
• Vulnerable Population
• Economic Impact
Identifying critical assets & resources

23. Lechmere Station
MBTA Green Line
Exposure >100°F
Sensitivity
High
(S4)
Adaptive
Capacity
High
(AC2)
Vulnerability
Low
(V2)
Climate
Projections
Modeling & Mapping
Exposure
Assessing Vulnerability & Risk
How The Vulnerability
Assessment Was Conducted

24. Key Concepts
Exposure: Direct contact with hazard (flood/heat)
Vulnerability: function of asset Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity in relation to Exposure
Risk: function of Probability of Occurrence and Consequence of Failure
ICLEI - General Approach

25. Energy: Flood VulnerabilityRanking of assets
Table 2b: Energy Infrastructure vulnerability and risk from inland flooding by 2070s
(V5 – Most Vulnerable, V0 – Least Vulnerable; R4 – Highest Risk, R1 – Lowest Risk)
Critical Assets Flooding - 2070
Type Name
10 yr 24-hr
(6.4 in.)
100 yr 24-hr
(11.7 in.)
Vulnerability
Risk
Vulnerability
Risk
Power Plants (>10MW)
Veolia-Kendall Cogeneration
Station
V1 V1-V3
MIT Co-generation Plant V5 R3 V5 R2
Bulk Transformer/
Substations
North Cambridge V4 R4 V4 R3
Putnam V1-V3 V4 R3
East Cambridge V1-V3 V1-V3
Prospect V1-V3 V4 R3
Natural Gas City Gate
Stations
Brookford Street Take Station (N.
Cambridge)
V3-V5 R4 V5 R3
Natural Gas Distribution
Regulator Stations
Third St. Intermediate/Low-
Pressure Regulator Station
V2 V3-V5 R3
Steam Plants Harvard Blackstone Plant V1-V3 V1-V3

26. Mapping
Draft 02/27/2015 – Not for distribution

27. Economic Analysis
Estimated structural damages to buildings by commercial districts: 24 hour 100 yr.
rainfall event 2070s:
• Structural building damage from flooding scenarios reached as high as $232
million for the high rainfall event in 2070.
• However, it is a relatively small portion of the $42.6 billion of the total assessed
value of buildings in the City, at less than 1 percent of the total.
Disruption of economic activity could be greater than property damage.

28. Address in the near future:
• Increased heat: Both mortality (deaths) and morbidity (e.g., hospital visits) to be
affected by extreme heat.
• Indoor quality: challenges related to mold growth and resulting respiratory problems.
Monitor:
• Diseases impacted by CC
− West Nile Virus : Warmer winter may increase the number of Culex mosquitoes
− Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus : increased rainfall & warm summer temperatures
temperatures indicate periods for intensified surveillance
• Outdoor air quality: negligible
Public Health ImplicationsPublic Health Implications

29. Priority Planning AreasCC Priority Planning Areas
Draft 02/27/2015 – Not for distribution

30. 30
The Cambridge
Context: Understanding
Risks and Community
Preparedness
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead
Cambridge Vulnerability Assessment
Kleinfelder Associates

31. 31
Resilient
Campus
Design
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr.
Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture

32. Resilient Campus Design
James L. Wescoat Jr.
Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture

34. “Resilience” articles in The Tech
• Perseverance & caring community
• Mental health, suicide & accidents
• Boston Marathon bombing
• Cyberattacks and network resilience
• Steam distribution system and electrical grid
• Economic resilience
• Sports team performance
Summary: Limited results for “natural disaster resilience” OR “climate
resilience,” v-a-v progress in campus energy planning.

35. Concepts of Resilience
• Mechanical
• Ecological
• Psychosocial
• Design: “Build Back Better”
----------------------
Resilience: “The ability to prepare
and plan for, absorb, recover from,
or more successfully adapt to
actual or potential adverse events”
(NRC, 2011).
----------------------

36. MIT 4.217/11.315: Disaster-Resilient Design
Six Types of Design Contributions:
• Mitigation
• Retrofit
• Reconstruction
• Resettlement
• Commemorative design
• Integration of the above
School of Architecture & Planning:
• Urban Risk Lab (Mazereeuw)
• Center for Advanced Urbanism Rebuild by
Design, “New Meadowlands”
• SIGUS (Goethert)
• Many workshops and studios

37. Disaster-Resilient Design
Workshop
University of Engineering & Technology-
Lahore

38. DISASTERS ROUNDTABLE
Disaster Resilient Design—IGNITE Session
Elizabeth Mossop
Louisiana State
University

39. http://seachange.sasaki.com/
Resilient Campus Design at MIT

40. 4.214: Water, Landscape & Urban Design at MIT

41. 4.214: Water, Landscape & Urban Design at MIT

42. University D-RD Precedents

43. Some Leading U.S. All-Hazards Research Centers
• Carnegie-Mellon, Risk Perception & Communication
• Texas A&M University, Hazard Reduction & Recovery*
• University of Colorado-Boulder, Natural Hazards Center
• University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center
• University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Risk & Insurance
• University of South Carolina, Hazards Geography
--------------
• DHS Homeland Security Academic Advisory Council, HSAAC,
2014-2016.
* Also part of the DHS Campus Resilience Pilot
Program (7 Campuses).

44. “Whole Campus Approach” to Resilience
(CARRI, CAReS, CASAs)
• Safety and Security
• Facilities & Utilities
• MIT Medical
• Environmental Health
• Risk Management
• Student Affairs
• Campus Housing
• Sustainability
------------
*See also U of Oregon DRU

45. RESILIENT CAMPUS DESIGN AT MIT: 2 Qs
• How can the MIT Campus become a leading Research
and Teaching Laboratory for resilient planning & design?
• How can resilience become a visionary principle of
campus planning & design (v-a-v mainly a functional requirement)?

46. 46
Resilient
Campus
Design
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr.
Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture

47. 47
Campus Goal
Setting
for Climate
Change
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Bert Bland
Associate VP & Director,
Energy and Sustainability,
Cornell University

48. Goal Setting for Carbon Neutrality
• Robert R. Bland, P.E.
• Associate Vice President, Energy & Sustainability
MITMIT SustainabilityConnect 2015

49. I am pleased to announce the successful conclusion of detailed
discussions between Cornell students comprising the Kyoto Now!
movement and members of the Cornell administration. Throughout
these discussions, which have lasted for several days and nights, we have
shared a common goal: to highlight the essential reduction of the
emission of greenhouse gases, not only in the United States but
throughout the world, as an instrument for the curtailment of global
warming.
Vice President Hal Craft 2001

50. 2001 12% below 1990 levels by 2010
2007 Carbon neutral by 2050
2014 Carbon neutral by 2035
We can centrally set a goal of 2035,
but we won’t achieve it without
broad campus ownership
History of Carbon Goals

51. The College Engagement Program builds formal
partnerships between Facilities and the
colleges to engage staff, students, and faculty
in organizational and personal change
College Involvement

52. Facilities planned, centrally funded initiatives will not get
Cornell to climate neutrality. So what will?
• A new budget model that puts energy and space use bills in the college and unit’s hands
• The colleges and units making tough trade-offs to fund energy conservation, behavior change, and
high performance new construction
• Academic leadership

53. Further experiments in distributing
ownership of climate action are the needed.
Recommendations of the Acceleration Working Group:
• Academic partnerships on renewable energy production
• Experiential climate literacy across all colleges
• Extend conservation investment threshold to 15 year
simple payback (6.6% ROI)
• Set policy that all new construction is 50% more energy
efficient than ASHRAE code
• Add price of carbon to utility bills to colleges and units
• Add price of carbon to business travel

54. 54
1. Plan space to avoid new
buildings
2. Reduce energy demand
3. Use renewable electricity
and renewable heat
4. Offset business travel and
commuting
Four Tiered Strategy

55. What is Climate Neutrality?
Cornell’s Carbon Emissions
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
FY2008 FY2010 FY2012 FY2014
MetricTonsC02e

56. 11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
GSFMMBTU/YR
ECRF &
EHOB
Weill Hall
Duffield
Physical
Sciences
& AHDC
Human Ecology
Milstein
~186 kBtu/Sf-Yr ~162 kBtu/Sf-Yr
North Campus and
West Campus
56
Reduce Energy Demand

57. *Diagram not to scale
Gas
Water
Electricity
Heat
Supply Renewable Energy

58. 58
Renewable Electricity
Electricity: solar, wind, hydro
power
Successful PPA business model uses
no Cornell capital
• Power purchase agreements for solar PV and wind electricity
expected to save money
Research and teaching opportunities
• Black Oak R&D agreement being developed
• Snyder Rd Solar Farm educational array

59. 59
Insert graphic of EGS
100-120 °C
Basement Rock
Renewable Heat

60. Cornell Tech: A Case Study in
Mitigation and Adaptation

61. Engaging the community

62. Climate neutrality and
resiliency together…
Thank You!
Bert Bland
rrb2@cornell.edu

63. 63
Campus Goal
Setting
for Climate
Change
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Bert Bland
Associate VP & Director,
Energy and Sustainability,
Cornell University

64. 06
Designing Tomorrow’s Campus
Resiliency, Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change
Anne Slinn (Moderator) Executive
Director for Research, MIT Center for
Global Change Science
Anne has been helping to organize MIT’s
interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, and
international research on global change challenges
for over 20 years. She is a current member of the
MIT Conversation on Climate Change Committee.
Kleinfelder Associates
Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead
Kleinfelder is a team of engineers, architects, and
scientists based in Cambridge, MA. Kleinfelder is
currently completing a Vulnerability Assessment
for the City of Cambridge.
James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr.
Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture
Bert Bland
Associate VP & Director, Energy and
Sustainability, Cornell University
Bert leads the Energy and Sustainability office within
Cornell's Facility Services Department, overseeing
energy, sustainability, and utilities management for
campus. Bert also leads the transformation of the
campus to a living laboratory for sustainable
practices in all campus operations.
Jim is the Aga Khan Professor for the Department of
Architecture. His research concentrates on
sustainable water and landscape design in South Asia
and the U.S. from the site to river basin scales.

65. Time for .

66. 06
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