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GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through May 2015
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 3
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 4
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 5
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 6
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 7
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 8
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 9
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociate...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 10
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 11
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 12
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 13
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 14
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 15
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 16
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 17
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 18
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 19
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 20
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 21
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 22
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 23
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 24
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 25
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 26
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 27
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociat...
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2015 May GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

- May had the worst year-over-year inquiry results of 2015, down 13%.
- Year-over-year...
– Inquiries for on-line programs reverted back to their decline, down 17%.
– Inquiries for on-ground programs weakened further.
– Conversion rates for mature months continued to decline.
– Average cost per converted inquiry continued to rise.
- The largest programs and markets continued to lose inquiry volume.
- The market gap has widened:
– Struggling institutions dropped 20%.
– Sustainers were flat.

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2015 May GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

  1. 1. GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs www.GrayAssociates.com Results through May 2015
  2. 2. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Who Is Gray? GrayData Completions and Enrollments IPEDS Employment BLS/O*NET Placement Rates Gray Research Industry Inquiries GrayReports Demographics US Census Job Postings WANTED Analytics Students Programs StrategyLocations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share §  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation §  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports §  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement Advanced Analytics Predictive Models Geo-Analytics Clients: Higher Educational Institutions and Investors Program Pricing: Coming in 2015
  3. 3. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 3 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com What is GrayReports? GrayReports tracks demand trends in higher education. §  Overall industry trend reports are a free monthly service, which includes these webinars. §  Custom reports on trends by market and programs, which we provide to our paid subscribers: ─  Monthly reports for their specific programs and markets ─  On-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets Over 42 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present Over 930,000 new inquiries in May 2015 Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries
  4. 4. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 4 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Key Demand Trends and Observations 1.  May had the worst year-over-year inquiry results of 2015, down 13%. 2.  Year-over-year... 1.  Inquiries for on-line programs reverted back to their decline, down 17%. 2.  Inquiries for on-ground programs weakened further. 3.  Conversion rates for mature months continued to decline. 4.  Average cost per converted inquiry continued to rise. 3.  The largest programs and markets continued to lose inquiry volume. 4.  The market gap has widened: -  Struggling institutions dropped 20%. -  Sustainers were flat.
  5. 5. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 5 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Agenda 1.  National Inquiry Trends 2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs 3.  Views by Program and Segment 4.  Marketing Implications 5.  Summary
  6. 6. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 6 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Overall Student Inquiries May demand dropped from April, and was down 13% from year-ago levels. §  January and February were down 12% and 10%, respectively. §  March and April had a narrower gap to prior year. §  May had the worst year-over-year comparison of 2015. -13% YOY - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
  7. 7. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 7 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com 1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received. 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 1.7%2.8% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates While mature months have been weak in 2015, more recent conversion activity is stronger. §  January and February inquiries, now mature, converted at substantially lower rates than year-ago levels, and as compared with the 2014 mature average. §  March, April and May are a little below the 2014 norms for immature months. Immature Months1 2014 Mature Average: 3.5%
  8. 8. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 8 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Number of Conversions Mature conversions have been driven down by lower inquiry levels and conversion rates. §  Conversions in January and February were down 23% or more. §  March and April conversions have the best chance of matching prior year levels owing to their more comparable year-over-year inquiry levels, and to conversion rates that are currently near the norm for inquiries of that age. 1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Education Industry Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2013 Immature Months1
  9. 9. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 9 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries Unlike the pattern in 2014, the price per converted inquiry continued to creep upwards in May. §  Inquiry prices rose 1% to $44.88 in May 2015. §  In 2014, May prices fell 3% relative to April. §  Through the first 5 months of 2015, inquiry prices were 5% higher on average year-over-year. $44.01 $44.20 $44.23 $44.49 $44.88 $42.13 $42.24 $42.13 $42.87 $41.59 $44.97 $44.67 $44.86 $46.15 $46.45 $45.94 $43.11 $30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Price per Pay-per-Lead Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2014 Note: Inquiry price is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries.
  10. 10. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 10 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Average Cost Per Converted Inquiry Costs per converted inquiry have risen sharply in 2015. §  Costs in 2013 and 2014 were comparable to one another, while 2015 has had a much higher average. §  January’s cost was up 19% from prior year, while February’s was up 30%. §  March, April and May are also trending well above prior year levels. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $1,253 $1,359 $1,177 $1,230 $1,169 $1,262 $1,178 $1,346 $1,338 $1,153 $1,500 $1,393 2015 $1,497 $1,771 $1,718 $1,874 $2,630 2013 $1,367 $1,521 $1,326 $1,386 $1,376 $1,135 $1,266 $1,322 $1,454 $1,405 $1,379 $1,375 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 Cost Per Converted Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels Immature Months
  11. 11. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 11 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Agenda 1.  National Inquiry Trends 2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs 3.  Views by Program and Segment 4.  Marketing Implications 5.  Summary
  12. 12. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 12 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeMay reverted back to the negative year-over-year variance trend, finishing down 17% year-over-year. §  May and January tied for the worst year-over-year comparison of 2015. §  April is the only month of 2015 whose inquiry levels have been up from 2014. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Inquiries Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 -17% YOY
  13. 13. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 13 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs February conversion levels finished below prior year for the seventh consecutive month. §  January and February 2015 conversions were down 10% from 2014 levels. §  The negative year-over-year gap has narrowed for mature months in 2015 compared with the latter part of 2014 which saw declines in excess of 20%. 1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2013 Immature Months1
  14. 14. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 14 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Inquiries for On-Ground Programs May has the worst year-over-year on-ground inquiry comparison of 2015. §  May on-ground inquiry volume, while down only 5% from April, is 23% lower than prior year. §  March has the second worst year-over-year comparison of 2015, down 15%. 2012 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Inquiries Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 -23% YOY
  15. 15. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 15 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Conversions of on-ground inquiries continue to decline. §  Conversion levels plummeted in November and December, and January was down 27% from prior year. §  February 2015, the latest mature month, finished 32% behind 2014. §  While not yet mature, March, April and May are far behind prior year levels. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2013 Immature Months1 Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs 1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
  16. 16. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 16 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Conversions of External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2013 Conversions of External Inquiries Conversions of external inquiries are also declining at accelerated rates. §  Conversions of external inquiries were down16% year-over-year in December. §  Conversions of external inquiries in January and February were down by more than 30%. §  March and April conversions appear unlikely to match prior year levels, and May is off to a slow start. Immature Months
  17. 17. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 17 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Conversions of Internal Inquiries The year-over-year gap in internal inquiry conversions was much broader in February than in January. §  Conversions of internal inquiries were down 13% year-over-year in January. §  February witnessed a 22% decline from prior year. §  March, April and May are likely to mature below last year. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Conversions of Internal Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2013 Immature Months
  18. 18. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 18 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Agenda 1.  National Inquiry Trends 2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs 3.  Views by Program and Segment 4.  Marketing Implications 5.  Summary
  19. 19. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 19 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Largest Programs: May Growth Only two of the five largest programs grew year-over-year in May. §  Registered Nursing inquiry volumes grew 67%. §  Business Admin inquiry volumes grew a modest 2%. §  Health Care Admin, which grew in April, was flat in May, while Medical Assistant fell 19%. §  Criminal Justice remained the biggest loser, with a 65% drop. 14% -7% -39% 3% -21% 67% 2% 0% -19% -65%-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Registered Nursing/ Registered Nurse Business Administration and Management Health/Health Care Administration/Management Medical/Clinical Assistant Criminal Justice/Police Science Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries Five Largest Programs 2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
  20. 20. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 20 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Top 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in May The four fastest-growing programs are new to the list in May. §  Curriculum and Instruction was the fastest-growing program, followed by Education Leadership and Administration. §  Two of the five programs saw growth of 100% or more. §  All five programs grew by at least 67%. -55% -65% 93% 3% 14% 290% 100% 74% 70% 67% -80% 20% 120% 220% 320% 420% 520% Curriculum and Instruction. Educational Leadership and Administration, General. Health Information/Medical Records Administration/ Administrator. Psychology, General. Registered Nursing/ Registered Nurse. Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs 2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change 1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012)
  21. 21. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 21 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Largest Cities for Inquiries May inquiries were down by 10% or more across all of the top cities. §  Only Atlanta saw a decline that did not exceed 10%. §  Three of the five cities declined by more than 20%. §  Chicago replaced Los Angeles as the worst-performing market, down 29%. 2% -3% -7% 10% 13% -10% -14% -23% -27% -29% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Atlanta New York Philadelphia Los Angeles Chicago Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries 2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
  22. 22. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 22 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries Three of the five fast-growing cities are new to the list in May. §  Oklahoma City was once again the fastest-growing city in May. §  Wichita, KS was second. §  Augusta, GA, Greenville, SC and Miami, FL, all new additions, each had 6% inquiry growth in May. 5% -8% 13% 5% -8% 33% 25% 6% 6% 6% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Oklahoma City, OK Wichita, KS Augusta, GA Greenville, SC Miami, FL Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries 2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change 1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
  23. 23. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 23 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume The gap between Strugglers and Sustainers widened substantially in May. -12% -15% -15% -12% 0% -3% -13% -16% -31% -44% -46% -27% 47% 44% 28% 10% 9% 7% -6% -13% -7% -7% -11% -9% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014 -15% -11% -8% -4% -20% -6% -8% 0% -1% 0% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015 Strugglers Sustainers
  24. 24. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 24 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Inquiry Volumes by Category Doctoral and Master’s inquiries were by far the best performing categories in the period. §  Internal, Bachelor’s and Unknown Modality inquiries also saw positive growth. §  Ground, Associate’s, and External inquiries were among the categories which fell the farthest. 38% 27% 15% 7% 2% -7% -11% -13% -14% -17% -23% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Doctorate Master's Internal Unknown Modality Bachelor's Online Certificate External Associate's Ground Unknown Degree Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014 vs. 2015 (March – May) Monthly Average !
  25. 25. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 25 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Agenda 1.  National Inquiry Trends 2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs 3.  Views by Program and Segment 4.  Marketing Implications 5.  Summary
  26. 26. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 26 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Key Findings §  The mix of inquiries is shifting to : -  Internal -  Healthy schools (Sustainers) -  Higher degree levels -  Smaller cities in the mid-west and south-east. §  There are tremendous variations by city, program, and modality. -  Three of the five fastest-growing cities are new to the list in May. -  Four of the five fastest-growing programs joined the list this month. -  Inquiry counts for large cities are shrinking, while they are growing for smaller mid-western and south-eastern cities. §  You need a custom view that reflects the markets in which you compete. §  You could know if you are winning or losing the battle for share. -  Adapt your strategy to the market situation -  Correctly assess company and management performance
  27. 27. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 27 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars Please join us next month! July Webinar (June Results) Wednesday, July 22nd at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time
  28. 28. 617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 28 GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com Questions and Contacts Today’s Presenter: Steve Probst Partner, Gray Associates Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins CEO Gray Associates, Inc. Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com 617-366-2836

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