Diese Präsentation wurde erfolgreich gemeldet.
Wir verwenden Ihre LinkedIn Profilangaben und Informationen zu Ihren Aktivitäten, um Anzeigen zu personalisieren und Ihnen relevantere Inhalte anzuzeigen. Sie können Ihre Anzeigeneinstellungen jederzeit ändern.
Comments on Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr “The long-term future of productivity? The state of the debate” 
Jonathan Haskel ...
Productivity growth: a case study 
•http://youtu.be/RRy_73ivcms
Productivity growth 
•How to think about productivity growth in this process 
–Measurement: four wheels are changed, but h...
Headwinds? 
•RJG: 
•So: three elements to RJG story 
–So output per person can be slowed by slowdown in 
•productivity (la...
Headwinds? 
•Can we see some of Bob’s concerns in this 1950s picture? The US economy in 1950 
–Inequality/debt 
–Labour fo...
Some remarks 
•RJG US slowdown is from 2%pa to 0.5%pa. 
–Due to debt/inequality = 0.7%pa 
–Due to labour quality & demogra...
Is the price decline of microprocessors slowing? 
Source: Byrne, Oliner, Sichel, 2014
General purpose technologies and productivity 
Source: Syverson , 2013
Source: WSJ, June 2014, Economists Debate and RJG
Nächste SlideShare
Wird geladen in …5
×

Comments on Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr “The long-term future of productivity? The state of the debate”, Jonathan Haskel

Presentation by Jonathan Haskel, "Comments on Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr “The long-term future of productivity? The state of the debate”"

  • Loggen Sie sich ein, um Kommentare anzuzeigen.

  • Gehören Sie zu den Ersten, denen das gefällt!

Comments on Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr “The long-term future of productivity? The state of the debate”, Jonathan Haskel

  1. 1. Comments on Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr “The long-term future of productivity? The state of the debate” Jonathan Haskel Imperial College Business School, CEPR, IZA Joint OECD-NBER Conference on Productivity Growth and Innovation in the Long Run, OECD Paris, 25-26 September 2014
  2. 2. Productivity growth: a case study •http://youtu.be/RRy_73ivcms
  3. 3. Productivity growth •How to think about productivity growth in this process –Measurement: four wheels are changed, but have to adjust for quality (here, speed). Lessons for ICT, including C (Corrado, 2011), service sector productivity –Capital deepening: not just the compressed air spanners, but also ICT –Labour quality: education of the team –TFP/knowledge/intangible capital deepening: Teamwork •How to think about productivity growth in this industry –Highly capital intensive (tangible and intangible), complementary to ICT via TV rights. –Car racing tastes crosses cultural boundaries –Globalisation & cheap communications => scale => increased earnings for scarce factors (drivers, owners of rights) => inequality Haskel, Lawrence, Leamer, Slaughter (2013) •Productivity in other industries –Spillovers into health
  4. 4. Headwinds? •RJG: •So: three elements to RJG story –So output per person can be slowed by slowdown in •productivity (labour quality, capital deepening, technical change) •Lab force participation (women, part-time work, sickness, discouraged workers) –and then consumption depends on incomes net of debt repayments, which in turn depends upon •inequality => might be no income rise for most of population, and a no rise in consumption •Debt => less scope for consumption •The three elements –Productivity –Labour force participation –Inequality/debt productivitylabour force participation, working hoursoutput output hours worked personhour workedperson 
  5. 5. Headwinds? •Can we see some of Bob’s concerns in this 1950s picture? The US economy in 1950 –Inequality/debt –Labour force participation •Low unemployment/discouraged worker, female participation •Income inequality and debt would be less: so consumption would grow •Young workforce with high participation –Productivity •Labour quality to improve: graduation from high school/ college? •ICT revolution to come
  6. 6. Some remarks •RJG US slowdown is from 2%pa to 0.5%pa. –Due to debt/inequality = 0.7%pa –Due to labour quality & demography= 0.2%pa and 0.3%pa –Due to technical change (includes post 72 slowdown =0.6%) •Inequality debt –Applies to other countries? –Scope for other countries to catch up to US •Labour quality slowing –Long term unemployed/discouraged workers: scope for policy? –Quality of education/graduation rates •Scope for policy: Fryer/Angrist/Lavy on incentives? •Long-term technical progress –Has the ICT revolution played out? •schools and higher education? •Is Moore’s law slowing? Byrne, Oliner, Sichel, 2014 •Gains in ICT as capital deepening/TFP in the discovery process –Hayekian uncertainty •Syverson , 2013 –Is the IP system fit for purpose?
  7. 7. Is the price decline of microprocessors slowing? Source: Byrne, Oliner, Sichel, 2014
  8. 8. General purpose technologies and productivity Source: Syverson , 2013
  9. 9. Source: WSJ, June 2014, Economists Debate and RJG

×