Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/

1. An inconvenient truth!
The Hell Niño in South Africa
Coleen Vogel
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand

3. Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050
(top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are
shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR

4. Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation)
scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The
maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR

5. © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za
Annual change in extreme rainfall events over
southern Africa (2070-2100 vs 1975-2005)
• Units: change
in the annual
number of events
per grid box
• Extreme
rainfall events
are projected to
increase over
most of southern
Africa
• More intense
thunderstorms
projected to
occur over
eastern SA
Engelbrecht et

8. Science – society interactions:
The case of South Africa
• Long and extensive science on climate change
and climate variability
• Strong policy focus (dating back to early
1900s)
• Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s)
that had the potential to fundamentally shift
‘science imaginaries’ on drought.

9. Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa
(after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)

10. Science – society interactions
National Consultative Forum on Drought
• Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s
• ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change
and climate stress
• CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South
Africa) national-level process influenced by strong
activists shaping the Drought Forum
• Evolution:
• Drought forum – rural development forum –
reconstruction and development action.

12. Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum
(Source: Various)

13. Fast forward to 2014-2016
1. Knowledge about climate change science and
climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge).
2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles
of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic
society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and
planning still located in silos of action
3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix
1 of paper).

14. Example of current response
(extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov.
2015).

15. Policy &
decision
-making
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decision-
making
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decision
-making
Climate
Change
research
After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000

16. Transdisciplinary Co-design & Co-production Model
(After: Future Earth and Cornell et al.,
2013)

17. Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes
(courtesy J. Colvin)
Multiple stakeholders, actors
and stake/actor holdings
Controversy of
knowledge claims
Complexity of
ecological – societal
relationships
Uncertainty about current
state and predictions
Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:

18. “The real voyage of discovery
consists not in seeking new
landscapes, but in having new
eyes” Marcel Proust

19. Acknowledgements
• Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists
• Various inputs local scientists, activists and
government actors from the past and present!
• Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for
graphics and figures.