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Sitra Trends list 2014/2015

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Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, has published its Trends List for 2014/15, detailing the issues likely to have profound effects on society and economies...

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Sitra Trends list 2014/2015

  1. 1. Megatrends | Sitra 2014/2015 Inter-dependency Well-being is becoming Communities is increasing are empowered Job stability Europe's structures are crumbling Skills are challenging information Human lifespans are increasing Technology is being integrated into everyday life is disappearing Power relationships are shifting Inequality is growing The roles of cities are growing The effects of climate change are broadening more important Ecological footprints are outgrowing our “shoes”
  2. 2. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of the world, the linearity and causal connections of large societal changes is difficult (or even impossible) to define in purely objective terms. In reality, global changes are caused by the interaction of numerous phenomena – not individual, subjective trends. The Sitra Trends List provides one interpretation of the directions of global societal transformations – megatrends. Information sources such as international and national statistics, academic studies and consultations, previous trend work, news articles and expert statements were used in the trend work. Megatrends include three content sections: trends, counter-trends and questions for Finland. The objective of the Trends List is to create a basis and a tool for conversation that promotes understanding of the visible changes in the world, especially from Finland's perspective. Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Our world is in constant state of flux
  3. 3. Boundaries between communities are becoming more vague as interconnectedness and mobility increase • Surprising societal events are having powerful repercussions • Digitisation is uncoupling communities from their physical boundaries, enabling ever more extensive and versatile virtual networks • International migration is continuing as people search for a better life, both of their own volition and out of need Changes are engendering national insecurities and uncertainty, threatening minority cultures • Nationalist movements are rising against societies which are becoming more multinational and multicultural in Europe, North America and Asia • Communities are increasing their level of self-sufficiency as critical natural resources dwindle What is Finland's future role in the globalised world? A bridge-builder? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Inter-dependency is increasing MULTIMEDIA
  4. 4. Peer-to-peer networks are becoming societies' basic structure • Hierarchical structures substituted by networks. Power of individuals are growing. • Information is becoming increasingly open and the refinement of large amounts of information will create new business ventures. There will be five billion internet users by 2020 • Models based on the sharing economy are creating new alternatives for ownership-based consumption. At the same time, taxation models will have to be revamped Networked structures are threatening traditional institutions • The parties wielding authoritarian power will tighten their grip on the news media Could Finland be a pioneer of a new type of open, inclusive democracy? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Communities are empowered MULTIMEDIA
  5. 5. Changes in global power relationships are becoming more rapid • China becoming the world's largest economy and Asia the most significant economic area • Co-operation between BRICS countries will become tighter and oil reserves will bolster Brazil's status in South America • The global significance of Africa will grow. The relationship between Russia and the West is cooling owing to the situation in Ukraine A feeling of insecurity is becoming more pervasive and centred on the individual • Tensions related to economic policy and protectionism increasing as natural resources dwindle • The increasingly global effects of fundamentalism and terrorism are bringing questions of security to the foreground • Cyber monitoring is becoming more commonplace and extensive, incurring increasingly conflicting feelings What will guarantee the security of Finns in the future? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Power relationships are shifting MULTIMEDIA
  6. 6. Global warming is continuing to pick up pace • On the basis of the current trend, it is estimated that the climate will be 1.5-3˚C warmer by 2050 than pre-industrial times (IPCC). This can be limited to 0.7-2.3˚C (2050) by means of determined global measures • Coastal regions are preparing for rising sea levels. Food shortages and uninhabitable areas are major threats. As weather conditions change, the balance of natural ecosystems are disturbed Curbing global warming entails opportunities which more people are becoming aware of • Emission-free energy production will see strong growth in the coming decades, replacing some fossil-based energy production • Decentralised energy production will become more common. The paths for energy revolutions are very different between countries How will Finland prepare for energy sector reform and millions of climate refugees? The effects of climate change are broadening Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 MULTIMEDIA
  7. 7. Well-being is becoming a more significant goal at the individual and societal level • New well-being-enhancing services will be created as people focus more and more on self-improvement and self-actualisation • The concept of well-being will be updated to suit the modern world, and attempts will be made to apply it to societal steering • Countries that concentrate on well-being will fare better in economic terms than others due to high value creation Social cohesion in Western countries is deteriorating as the focus is placed on other issues • Psychological symptoms are becoming more common in increasingly fast-paced, individualistic societies. Well-being services will become focused on individuals "The Finnish welfare state" and "well-being in Finland" – are these the same thing? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Well-being is becoming more important MULTIMEDIA
  8. 8. Europe's challenges are continuing, with no clear positive development directions in sight • The EU has gone from trailblazer to a mammoth struggling with numerous challenges • The old Western democratic structures are considered too bureaucratic to respond to increasingly rapid changes • The EU's economy will continue its slow development. Interest may even be negative. States will continue to amass debt • An increasing share of the electorate are choosing not to vote, citing the closed nature of representative democracy as well as its disconnect from their own experiences The level of activity related to finding a new direction is picking up • Movements advocating change are becoming very popular across Europe Will Finland find a gear that enables it to succeed in a more decrepit Europe? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Europe's structures are crumbling MULTIMEDIA
  9. 9. Rising living standards and technological development are increasing human lifespan • Developing healthcare and lifestyles that prevent disease will extend life expectancies to over 100 years in several countries • The simultaneously decreasing birth rates will turn population structures from pyramids to diamonds. In Europe, people between 50 and 80 will be the largest age group • As healthcare costs grow, prioritisation is becoming increasingly challenging. Which costs should states be responsible for, and which should individuals shoulder? The ageing population considered a resource by societies instead of an expense • Older people are forming a significant consumer group that is wealthy enough to pay for new types of services. The societal impact of older people is growing • The experience, information and networks of senior citizens constitute a capital that can be utilised more efficiently How will the complementary skills of young people and senior citizens be used in entrepreneurship? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Human lifespans are increasing MULTIMEDIA
  10. 10. Technological development is transforming societies rapidly and extensively • Technology is changing and becoming more mobile, integrated and user-oriented • Augmented reality, robotics and bionics enable new types of co-operation between man and machine • Synthetic biology and nano materials will generate new product manufacturing methods • Healthcare is becoming more efficient due to developing organ production and monitoring devices The accelerating technological development is dividing people into proponents and opponents of technology • "Experience-oriented" lifestyles will become more common, while connection to nature will become more valuable How will Finnish engineering skills coupled with societal know-how be commercialised on a global scale? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Technology is being integrated into everyday life MULTIMEDIA
  11. 11. Access to humanity's collective information base is becoming increasingly easy, stressing the importance of information utilisation skills • Innovations are being created more rapidly and by surprising parties on the basis of the open innovation principle • Entrepreneurship, inspiration and a willingness to experiment are important • There will be a growing need for continuous learning, unlearning and re-learning throughout people's lives. Self-steering and life-management skills are rising to the fore All-round education as a concept will become more versatile as complexity grows • The value creation ability of “digital natives” will be based on the ability to apply information that has been accessed from available open sources • Learning and teaching methods will develop as cloud services and crowdsourced smart services become more common. School systems will have to undergo reform to suit the modern world Do PISA tests fully indicate the ability of new generations to succeed in the future? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Skills are challenging information MULTIMEDIA
  12. 12. The proportional inequality of individuals' well-being within societies is growing • The gap between rich and poor is increasing on an individual level, even though various countries' per capita income-level averages will become more uniform • The aim of global economic policy development will not be equality for individuals • Increasing social inequality propagates the growth of social problems. International institutions (OECD, IMF) find this development troubling from the perspective of stable economic development • Social trust is becoming weaker, while human rights violations become more common Information-related inequality decreases as new forms of learning are introduced • Open access to the internet and e-learning tools reduce education-related inequality • Crowdsourcing services enable all internet users to raise capital Equality has long been one of Finland's defining characteristics. Will this development continue unchanged? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Inequality is growing MULTIMEDIA
  13. 13. We face a labour revolution that will change our understanding of human work • Long work careers are disappearing, the nature of work is becoming more transient, versatile and creative • The role of work in people's lives will decrease, while the significance of work grows • As manufacturing and service professions are digitised human work will be replaced with automated software and robots • Global business will function on task and function levels. Competition for the best talent will become tighter In addition to big losers, big new winners will be created • A new era of entrepreneurship will create unforeseen opportunities for those that are able to develop, implement and commercialise new, innovative ideas • The economy will continue to focus on services, with the majority of new work being created in service sectors requiring versatile skills How will Finland, which made its wealth on the back of industrialisation, create its jobs in the future? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Job stability is disappearing MULTIMEDIA
  14. 14. Large societal changes are increasingly being carried out in cities • Over 30 megacities with populations of over 10 million will exist by 2025 • General urbanisation is making municipal decision-making more important than government decision-making. Symbolic cities and cities with some kind of special status will obtain special roles • Smart City concepts will proliferate in societies that are becoming more densely developed and are promoting the economy of denseness Attempts will be made to create natural features in cities • Green areas, parks and natural construction will increase the natural effect in cities • Technological development will enable a physically less burdensome life in the countryside and in agricultural jobs. Pressures to produce more food for city dwellers will continue to grow How can Finland's city-planning processes be made to support the reform of communities? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 The roles of cities are growing MULTIMEDIA
  15. 15. The earth's biocapacity has already been exceeded in many ways – the pressure to create sustainability will grow • The earth's "consuming middle-class” will grow from two to five billion between 2010 and 2030 • 32 per cent of the food produced around the world is wasted every year. Energy and material shortages will engender increasingly large conflicts worldwide A circular economy and responsible business – solutions to limited resources • Creative closed-circulation systems are becoming more common in different sectors across the world. The EU is following the example set by China and Japan, placing the circular economy high on the political agenda • The pressure for sustainable consumption will grow as resources dwindle and prices increase. Resource-efficient sharing-based models will become more common, replacing ownership How will Finland optimally utilise its unique water and forest resources? Sitra • Ernesto Hartikainen • 10/2014 Ecological footprints are outgrowing our “shoes” MULTIMEDIA
  16. 16. Building a successful Finland for tomorrow sitra.fi Facebook.com/SitraFund @SitraFund @ErnestoHarti