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Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

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ESI Presents on real estate data insights at Keller Williams training program

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Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

  1. 1. Deciphering the Philadelphia Housing Market PETER ANGELIDES FEBRUARY 23, 2017
  2. 2. Overview ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. • ESI’s Technical Applications • Cross Industrial City Trends Demand: Millennials Public Schools Job Growth Changing Commuting Patterns Supply: Construction Database • Housing Market Trends & Tools Philadelphia Housing Index Condo Insight
  3. 3. ESI’s Technical Applications ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. Economic & Fiscal Impact Analyses Market Studies Hardship Studies Valuations (not appraisals) Tax Appeal Cases Litigation Support
  4. 4. Selected Clients ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  5. 5. Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. ● 20% of the region’s population ● 26% of the city’s population ● 46% of the Core Center City population ● 40% of the population of Greater Center City Philadelphia Metro Area Age Distribution 2017 Housing Report: building on Optimism Center City District & Central Development Corporation, Feb 22, 2017
  6. 6. Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. “It’s true that homeownership among this age group has traditionally been lower than in previous generations. But that may be more a function of delayed purchases due to millennials’ new financial reality: historically high student debt, recession, rising real estate costs, a challenging and stratified job market.” Millennials Look to the Suburbs, Not Cities, for First Homes Curbed, June 21, 2016 Source: US Census Bureau, ACS, 2009 and 2014, 1-Year estimates Median Household Income, 2009-14
  7. 7. Demand: Future of Philadelphia's Millennials ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. “Will they stay enchanted with Philly, looking past the tepid business environment and still-struggling school system?” Has Philly Reached Peak Millennial? It’s Going to Be Hard to Find Out BillyPenn, Feb 21, 2017 Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll, The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2016 Percentage of 18- to 34-Year Olds Likely to Be Living in Philadelphia in 5 to 10 Years
  8. 8. Demand: Public Schools ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. “Thanks to its academic success, Penn Alexander quickly became a destination school for the type of middle-class families who once sidestepped the city’s troubled public schools or moved to the suburbs. The school’s popularity triggered a real estate boom in the West Philadelphia catchment area it serves.” Penn Alexander in Philadelphia Wins Major National Education Award, Newsworks, Sept. 28, 2016 Curbed, June 21, 2016
  9. 9. Demand: Enrollment Trends ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. “After years of decline, K- 12 enrollment has stabilized in the past three years in schools run by the School District of Philadelphia and by the Archdiocese of Philadelphia. Enrollment in public charter schools has nearly doubled since the school year that ended in 2010.” Philadelphia: The State of the City, A 2016 Update, The Pew Charitable Trusts, March, 2016
  10. 10. Demand: Job Growth ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. “Neighborhoods are a source of vibrant economic growth, and local civic leaders and residents are passionate and informed...” Roadmap for Growth: A Shared Agenda for the City to Promote Economic Growth and Job Creation, Dec 8, 2015
  11. 11. Demand: Job Growth ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. Philadelphia: An Incomplete Revival,Center City District, Jan, 2017 Total Wage and Salary Employment, 1970-2016
  12. 12. Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  13. 13. Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  14. 14. Demand: SEPTA Ridership Growth Between 1998-2016 ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  15. 15. Supply: Construction Database ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. Current Projects Under Construction in Center City
  16. 16. Supply: Construction Related ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. The average number of days between zoning and building permit issuance between January 2011 and January 2015 went from 204 to 172 days.
  17. 17. Supply: Construction Related ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. Center City Housing Construction Meeting Demand, But Challenges Loom, Plan Philly, Feb 23, 2017 Greater Center City Housing Completions, 200-15
  18. 18. Supply: Rental Rates ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. Source: departmentofnumbers.com Real Gross Rent in Philadelphia (2104 Dollars)
  19. 19. Housing Market Trends Across Philadelphia’s Neighborhoods ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  20. 20. • Aggregates every deed transfer in Philadelphia. • Adjust sales prices for age, lot size, square footage, garage, central air, exterior, and tax exemption, seasonality. • Statistical smoothing over time, within neighborhoods. Housing Market Trends & Tools: Philadelphia Housing Index ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
  21. 21. Philadelphia Housing Index ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. • Assessment Data • Transaction Data • Aggregate to numerous boundaries: Districts, Neighborhoods, School Boundaries. #PHLhousingindex
  22. 22. Philadelphia Housing Index, Growth Since January 2001
  23. 23. Philadelphia Housing Index River Wards
  24. 24. Philadelphia Housing Index 2016 - Q4
  25. 25. Philadelphia Housing Index Change 2001 Q1 - 2016 Q4
  26. 26. Housing Market Trends & Tools: Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. • Tracks condominium sales across Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. • Provides buyers, sellers, developers, real estate brokers, banks, condo associations detailed, customized and unbiased information • Provide consulting and forecasting services CONDO Insight
  27. 27. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. • Ranking • Comparison and forecast • Condo valuation • Market overview CONDO Insight
  28. 28. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  29. 29. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  30. 30. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  31. 31. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  32. 32. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  33. 33. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  34. 34. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  35. 35. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  36. 36. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  37. 37. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  38. 38. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  39. 39. Condo Insight ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight
  40. 40. ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. CONDO Insight Questions? Comments? Other feedback? Please feel free to reach out to me directly at: Flynn@econsultsolutions.com Condo Insight
  41. 41. Questions? Peter Angelides, Ph.D., AICP Econsult solutions, Inc. 215.717.2777 angelides@econsultsolutions.com Thank You ● econsultsolutions.com ● econsultsolutions.com/philadelphia-housing-index ● condoinsight.com

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