1.
Shahid Hussain Raja
Independent Consultant-Public Policy
www.shahidhussainraja.com
September 21,2015
1

2.
 Introduction
 Historical Evolution
 Where we stand - Time Series
 Where we stand - Cross Country
 Present scenario - SWOT Analysis
 Challenges
 Responses
 Conclusion
2

3.
 Despite its relative decline in formal economy in
percentage terms, agriculture is still dominant sector in
overall economic structure. Its performance still dictates
all our macro indicators - GDP, Poverty, External Balance,
Inflation etc
 This presentation, after carrying out the SWOT analysis of
Pakistan’s agriculture sector, describes the challenges it
is facing and how to respond to them
 Its full-length Kindle EBook version is available for
US$3.49 at Amazon.com at the following URL
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Agricultural-Sector-Pakistan-
Challenges-Response-ebook/dp/B010TMK28S
3

4.
 Out of 80 million hectares total area of Pakistan, 58 million
hectares have been surveyed so far
 The area under cultivation is 22 million hectares (38%) out of
which nearly 19 million hectares is irrigated; the rest is rain fed
 The area under forest is 4 million hectares (7%) and the balance
8 million hectares can be classified as the cultivable waste
 Agriculture sector of Pakistan comprises four sectors -
livestock, crop, forest and fisheries
 Livestock contributes 56% of the total agriculture production
while crop sector adds 38% to it out of which the contribution
of major crops is 25% and minor crops is 13%
 Fisheries and forestry contributes 2% each
4

5.
 During the 1950s, agriculture growth was sluggish
due to less area under cultivation and low
productivity
 Low technological base, adverse agricultural terms
of trade, patterns of landholding, inequitable
tenurial relations were some of the causes
 Main driver of growth became increase in cultivated
area which increased from 11.6 m ha in 1948 to
15.3 m ha by 1960
 Development of lands (particularly in the new
barrage areas) had huge impact on production
5

6.
 During the1960’ emphasis shifted towards vertical
expansion - increase in yields through genetic
breakthroughs in major crops (wheat, rice, cotton)
 Land Reforms of 1959 devised a rational land tenure
policy. Implementation facilitated creation of new social
relationship conducive for agricultural growth
 Rapid increase in tube wells contributed to more than a
million ha cropped area in Punjab alone (100% increase in
cropping intensity)
 Agricultural sector grew at 3.8% pa with the production of
all crops grew around 4.8% per year
6

7.
 Varieties evolved during the 1960s were adopted widely
by farmers in the 1970s
 Use of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides), controlled
water, and access to subsidized electricity and credit on a
large scale
 Price and non-price measures resulted in higher use of
modern inputs
 Three rural reconstruction programs’ thrust to create
more rural employment, facilitate flow of farm inputs and
outputs and provide agri. services in small towns closer to
farmers’ doorsteps
7

8.
 Two successive food crises forced the policy makers
to formulate comprehensive food security policy and
realisation of rural transformation as a necessary
precondition for economic growth
 Induction of local bodies resulted in improvement of
rural infrastructure
 Foreign remittances resulted in rural private
construction, rationalisation of the cost of land and
realignment of rural political dynamics
8

9.
 Better crop management and extension services played
a major role in increasing the agricultural production
 Input use efficiency and greater integration with the
world markets are the prime reasons for boosting
growth in agriculture sector
 Fertilizer use and adoption of HYVs and the use of
mechanical farm power exhibited rising trends
9

10.
 Food crises of 2007 reemphasized the crucial importance of
agriculture as an engine of growth, price stabilizer and
vehicle for poverty alleviation. Terms of trade became
favourable for the agricultural sector after many decades
 Introduction of Biotechnology by the private sector started
the Gene Revolution in the country
 Commercial farming started at large scale by enterprising
farmers and business houses which boosted tunnel farming
and farm mechanization
 Environmental consideration, looming threat of climate
change and water scarcity have forced the policy makers to
go for inputs use efficiency and resource management
10

11.
Crop Decades Ago In Recent Years
1950-53 1960-63 2003-06 2007-10
Wheat 3.13 4.01 20.80 22.76
Rice 0.81 1.09 5.14 6.47
Maize 0.37 0.47 2.60 3.48
Sugarcane 6.09 14.52 48.44 54.45
Seed Cotton 0.82 0.99 5.87 6.18
Fruit N/A 2.54 6.49 7.06
Vegetable 0.63 0.86 3.07 3.13
Milk N/A N/A 37.27 38.05
Meat N/A N/A 2.31 2.84
Fish 0.055 0.089 0.59 0.69
Output of most crops increased by 6-10 fold
(million metric tons; 3 year moving average)

12.
 Wheat - From 4 MT in 1950s to 6MT in 1960s to 25 MT in
2014
 Rice - From less than 1MT to 2 Mt in 1960s to more than
6.9 MT in 2014
 Maize - from 0.5MT in 1950s to 1MT in 1960s to 3.7 MT in
2014
 Cotton - From 0.8 MT in 1950s to 2 MT in 1960s to 13.5
MT 2014
 Sugarcane - From 6MT in 1950s to 14MT in 1960s to 48.3
MT in 2014
12
MT = Million Tonnes

13.
Commodity Pakistan India USA China World
Wheat 28 27 26 48 28
Cotton 20 15 29 43 22
Rice 32 33 82 64 42
Sugarcane 516 734 785 871 717
Maize 33 22 96 55 50
13
Maunds (40 kg)/acre

14.
14
SWOT Analysis

15.
 With more than 22 million hectares of land under cultivation, agricultural
land of Pakistan is 35% of the total area, sufficient not only for its food self-
sufficiency but also its industrial and exports needs
 Contributing one fifth of Pakistan’s total GDP, agriculture is the only source
of income for 60 % population of Pakistan absorbing 47% of the total labor
force
 Agriculture being the main income activity of the people of the area for
more than 6 millennia of recorded history, agriculture is the occupation by
choice of the inhabitants. They have now more than 60 years of
accumulated knowledge of modern agricultural practices.
 Irrigation system of Pakistan is best irrigation agriculture sector
 Pakistan is blessed with all four weathers, very helpful in increasing
productivity of agricultural land.
 Pakistan is fourth largest producer of cotton, dates, mangoes worldwide
15

16.
 Weak factor productivity, stagnant yields
 Preponderance of small farmers, low technology
base
 Post harvest losses, inadequate supply chain
Infrastructure, inefficient and inadequate marketing
 Depleting soil fertility
 Deteriorating Irrigation and drainage system
 Ineffective Education, R&D and Extension linkages
 Poor skill development for modern agriculture
 Inappropriate use of natural resources
 Rural Non-farm Sector performs below potential
16

17.
 Existence of productivity gaps - great scope
for production enhancing
 Worldwide interest in agriculture
 Burgeoning population - need for food
 Growing prosperity - demand for value added
food products
17

18.
 Climate change and environmental threat
 Use of arable land for non-agricultural use
 Low priority for agricultural development-
urban bias
 Sluggish economic growth-catch-22 position
 Rural Governance issues
18

19.
How to improve the quality of life of the
citizens of Pakistan by ensuring their food
security and providing agricultural raw
material to its industry at competitive rates by
making agriculture an efficient, productive
and profitable sector of the economy in a
manner that its growth is sustainable and
outputs are competitive?
19

20.
 Increase productivity by increasing efficiency in all
agricultural operations through public as well as
private sector investment in R&D and Extension
 Increase profitability by rationalizing input and
output prices, reducing production and post
production losses and selective public procurement
intervention
 Making agricultural produce competitive in the
rapidly globalizing world by reducing cost of
production, improving quality and ensuring
Sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) compliance
20

21.
 Ensuring sustainability by promoting environment
friendly good agricultural practices through
,appropriate legal framework, awareness campaigns
and incentives and rewards
 Equitable distribution of gains from enhanced
productivity by making available public sector
goods and services to all stakeholders without
distinction
21

22.
A. Horizontal expansion - increasing the area
under cultivation
B. Vertical expansion - increasing the productivity
C. Structural transformation - diversification and
value addition
D. Cross Cutting Interventions - agrarian reforms
22

23.
 Bringing new areas under cultivation
 Reclaiming degraded lands
 Intercropping
23

24.
 Bringing uncultivated area under cultivation by
providing proper technical support, making
available affordable technology and adequate water
 Increasing availability of water by construction of
new small and medium dams and popularizing rain
harvesting techniques
 Saving water by reducing water losses through
proper water conveyance and efficient irrigation
techniques
 Economical management of ground water pumping
through incentives, legislation and awareness
24

25.
 Launch a sustained campaign for the use of
gypsum in every acre and provide incentives
 Forbid by law the burning stubs of wheat and
rice and encourage the farmers to plough them
into the field
 Encourage the sowing of humus making plants
soon after the harvesting of wheat and plough
them back into the lands
25

26.
 Encourage eco-friendly inter-cropping practices
as it increases the area under cultivation by
cultivating vegetables in between the rows
 Agro-forestry is another profitable option for
the farmers and the country
 However farmers must be given proper technical
support for this practice to be cost effective and
eco friendly
26

27.
 Agricultural Education and Research
 Farm Mechanization
 Inputs
◦ Seeds
◦ Chemicals
◦ Water
◦ Credit
 Production Losses
27

28.
 Introducing need based agriculture education, creating
effective inter and intra institutional linkages and
collaboration with reputable foreign universities
 Strengthening public sector Research and Development
system, improving inter and intra institutional coordination
among educational/research institutions and extension
 Encouraging private sector investment in the field of R&D with
focus on modern technology and facilitating their outreach
 Capacity building of extension personnel of the provincial
agricultural departments
28

29.
 Intensification and diversification of farm
mechanization by ensuring easy access of the farmers
to essential farm machinery
 Its efficient and optimal use by incentivizing the
private sector for opening farm machinery
leasing/hiring outlets in villages
 Expansion and modernization of local farm machinery
manufacturing by providing them training, incentives
and technical/financial support to produce agricultural
implements as per international standards
29

30.
 Variety development and local production of good quality
seeds by the private sector by providing them appropriate
legal cover and technical/financial support
 Providing legal framework for establishing partnerships
between bio-tech research institutes and private seed
companies
 Encouraging good practices among the farmers to increase
the efficacy of farmers saved seeds
 Incentivize the farmers to use drill system of sowing to save
on fertilizer and for better seed germination
30

31.
 Timely availability of fertilizers, un-adulterated
pesticides & herbicides at reasonable prices to
the nearest possible doorsteps of the farmers.
 Rationalization of prices, in time import and
provision of subsidy when needed
 Popularizing the efficient and judicious use of
chemical inputs for reducing production losses
with minimum side effects
31

32.
 Provinces to rationalize their respective water-related
legislations including local water usage rules and
implementation of integrated water resource management
 Encourage public-private partnerships on water saving
techniques in cultivation of different water terrains, and other
innovative designs of groundwater recharge dams and
rainwater harvesting
 Prioritizing planned investment in large storage infrastructure
and groundwater use in light of macroeconomic instability due
to public budget deficit and conflicting demand uses
 Saving water by reducing water losses through proper water
conveyance and efficient irrigation techniques
 Economical management of ground water pumping through
incentives, legislation and awareness
32

33.
 Streamlining the traditional sources of farmer credit
by integrating them with the formal banking system
 Making financial products tailor-made to the needs
of smallholders and of micro, small and medium
non-farm rural enterprises to become efficiently
linked to the agri-based supply chains
 Increasing the volume and outreach of formal
banking network for timely and easy access to credit
by farming community
33

34.
 There are various estimates of production losses due to
non-use of weedicides by the farmers
 Ignorance, fear and costs of using are the general reasons
for this neglect
 There is need to create awareness among the farmers for
judicious use of weedicides for reducing the production
losses
 There are eco friendly measures to reduce this loss for
those who are excessively conscious of use of chemical
inputs
34

35.
 Reducing post production losses
 Value addition
 Marketing
35

36.
 Reducing post-production losses through
development of cool chain infrastructure including
storage in the private sector
 Establishing grain storage and handling system at
all levels including on-farm, off-farm and points of
entry/exit (sea/airports), and refurbishment of
existing storage facilities
 Enforcing grain quality standards and establishing
reliable grain testing laboratories at delivery points
36

37.
 Making agricultural produce competitive in rapidly
globalizing world by enforcing SPS standards and
introducing international certifications
 Encouraging quality consciousness among the farmers
through awareness campaigns
 Introducing and implementing grading standards and
improving marketing system of agricultural produce
 Establishing modern agricultural produce wholesale
markets in public-private partnership with cold
storages, pack houses, customs facilities etc.
37

38.
 Sustained growth of the rural economy lies in the
development of efficient and effective agri-based supply
chains that link the agriculture sector with their
corresponding upstream and downstream links in the rural
nonfarm to the national and international markets
 Establishing modern agricultural produce wholesale
markets in public-private partnership with cold storages,
pack houses, customs facilities etc.
 Encouraging processing and value addition of agricultural
produce to fetch better value, and to reduce post-harvest
losses
 Introducing warehouse receipt system for easy realization
of sale proceeds to farmers
38

39.
 Formulation of comprehensive Land Use Policy
 Improving Agricultural Terms of Trade
 Improving Rural Infrastructure
 Improving Rural Governance
 Environmental Sustainability
 Creating Linkages and promoting Investment
 Gender Mainstreaming
 Production Relations
39

40.
 Developing a national land use policy for rational use of land resources is
the need of the day as valuable arable land is being converted at alarming
rates by the property developers and industrial concerns for commercial non
farm uses
 Infrastructural development, though necessary is also rendering fertile land
to brick and mortar
 Add to it the declining fertility of our agricultural lands due to non
sustainable agricultural practices
 Plus the degradation of our lands due to water logging and salinity going on
for decades, a negative side effect of our irrigation practices
 All these issues needed to be addressed by formulating a long term
comprehensive land use policy by the government
40

41.
 Improve the terms of trade between agriculture and the
other sectors of the economy so that the squeezing of the
peasants going on for the last six decades can be reversed
 Rationalize the prices of the inputs farmers use, provide
subsidy on them and as well as those of commodities they
produce
 Improving the marketing infrastructure
 Selective procurement when the prices of agricultural
commodities crash
 Introduction of crop insurance scheme
41

42.
 In rural areas the roads, schools, hospitals and other
infrastructure are in deplorable condition
 No doubt the government has invested a lot in farm to markets
roads, construction of health facilities, schools and also rural
electrification
 However there are complaints of substandard workmanship and
their fast wear and tear due to paucity of maintenance funds
 Similarly there are complaints of shortage of staff to man these
health and educational schools. 'Ghost Schools’ was a term not
invented in the air; it has a solid evidence
42

43.
 Develop efficient and effective agri-based supply chains that
link the agriculture sector with their corresponding upstream
and downstream links in the rural non-farm (RNF) to the
national and international markets
 RNF provides 40-60% of incomes/jobs in rural areas, much of
its activity occurs in the trading, services and processing sector
having strong forward and backward linkages with agriculture
 Informal and low capital using entities catering mostly to
domestic markets, RNF presents opportunities for providing
value addition to primary production at the farm level
43

44.
 RNF is hampered by the numerous middle level low capital using
players who add little or no value to products and services
 For creating linkages between non-farm rural enterprises with agri-
based supply chains, we have to establish modern agricultural
produce wholesale markets in public-private partnership with cold
storages, pack houses, customs facilities etc.
 At the same time government should Introduce warehouse receipt
system for easy realization of sale proceeds to farmers and
encourage processing and value addition of agricultural produce to
fetch better value, and to reduce post-harvest losses
44

45.
 It is not an easy task to dismantle centuries old rural governance
structure and replace it with modern, formal contract based rural
public management in a short period but can be done in long term
 Start with education, literacy and skill formation which will shake the
foundations of this feudalistic structure
 Establish alternate dispute resolution mechanism to replace the
informal system heavily dependent on big landlords, supported by
the police and the patwari
 Local bodies elections be held as per fixed schedule which will bring
in the leadership interested in improving rural infrastructure, the
best guarantee of their fast journey to urban culture
45

46.
 Creating awareness among the farmers about the looming threat of
climate change and environmental degradation
 Popularizing the good agricultural practices by synchronising the
extension services of the provincial agricultural departments and
marketing outlets of the private agro services providers
 Promulgation of legislation for stopping of practices aggravating
the threat of climate change
 Allocation of resources for carrying out research to adjust the
cropping pattern and fine-tuning the planting and harvesting
schedules, practicing crop rotation and diversifying crop mix
 Developing more varieties responsive to climate change
 Adapting irrigation practices and fertilization regimes.
46

47.
 Although it is not possible to replace the centuries old production
relations of land cultivation in the rural areas of Pakistan in the short
term, efforts can be made to introduce the three modern forms of
farming
 Contract farming-encouraging agri-based processors to supply inputs &
technology packages to farmers on deferred payment with buy-back of
produce at guaranteed prices
 Cooperative farming-piloting variations of successful coop-models (with
refinements to traditional coops)
 Corporate farming-promoting lease of commercially viable tracts of land to
corporate level entrepreneurs who are willing to practice high-tech export
oriented agriculture and share profits with the owners
 However all the above three need comprehensive legislation about
contract making/dispute resolution as well as their strict
implementation through a specially created institutional infrastructure
47

48.
 Rural women are under three pressures-nature, society and family, all treat
them unfairly in terms of status, ownership of resources , job opportunities
and empowerment
 Improving healthcare and family planning facilities to relieve them of
excessive child bearing burden should be the top priority
 Launching of special rural female literacy and education campaign by
offering attractive monetary rewards would help in their empowerment and
reduce domestic violence
 Ensuring women’s access to resources and assets, including ownership of
land by creating awareness about their rights and strict enforcement of legal
framework priority
 Providing equitable opportunities to women by developing marketing
oriented skills and remunerative employment in the rural areas
48

49.
 Enhance the productivity of the agriculture by increasing efficiency in all
agricultural operations through public as well as private sector investment
in R&D, extension services, rural infrastructure, marketing, value addition
etc.
 Unfortunately, the flow of investment funds towards agriculture, which has
recently picked up, is still far below the desired levels.
 we need to make agricultural produce competitive in the rapidly globalizing
world by reducing cost of production, improving its quality and meeting
global food safety standards. raising the awareness of the opinion leaders
and decision makers to enforce strict food safety standards.
 Motivating domestic and foreign investors to invest in seed production,
fruit and vegetable processing, agri-infrastructure development and
encouraging development of commercially viable non-farm rural
agriculture enterprises
49

50.
 Despite its declining importance, agriculture is a sector capable of
accelerating growth, reducing poverty, containing inflation and
improving the quality of life of its citizens. Due to its backward and
forward linkages, small investment can bring substantial gains
 Area needing urgent attention are inputs use efficiency, reducing
production/post production losses, credit availability and bringing
more areas under cultivation through intercropping and tunnel farming
 Areas needing attention in the short term are rural infrastructure,
agricultural terms of trade, promoting investment, formulating land
use policy ,farm mechanisation and improving rural non-farm sector
 Areas needing attention in the long term are agricultural education,
rural governance ,gender mainstreaming, adapting to climate change
threats and introducing modern forms of production relations
50

51.
 Thank you for viewing the presentation
 If you liked it, can you please download its
EBook version for only US$ 3.46 at the
following URL
http://www.amazon.com/author/shahid_hussain_raja
 Peanuts for you, but will help me a lot
51

52.
52