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TERRITORIAL RE-NOVATION:
AN APPROACH
Shahid Solomon December 2012
CONTENTS
1. Paradigm of the Futurist
2. Why Territorial Re-novation?
3. A General Systems Model for Territorial Re-
Novation
4. Managing Territorial Transition
5. Working the Timeline
6. Seven Steps to Renovation
7. Bio
1. PARADIGM OF THE
FUTURIST
AN EARLY AND IMPORTANT
CHOICE TO MAKE


     Feel Good Optimism (transcending
      risk)
       Bright Side of Human Nature
          Evolutionary Consciousness
     Feel Bad Pessimism (extrapolating
      risk)
         Dark Side of Human Nature
         Systemic Failure
     Rational Optimism (managing risk)
         Power of Catallaxy: spontaneous order
          created by exchange & specialisation
          (Hayek)
         Desireability of Green Transition for
          Recapitalisation by Global Finance &
          Technology Multinationals
         New Generational Values
         Mobilising Power of Social Networking
1. WHY TERRITORIAL
RENOVATION?
TERRITORIES




 Include:   Regions, States, Cities, Towns,
 Districts
TERRITORIES



 Commonalities      of territories
     Systems: social, economic, infrastructure
      etc.
     Scale: Interlock with smaller and greater
      territories (scale)
     Transition: Globally progress through
      transitions of energy, technology, spatial
      structuring
CONCEPT OF RE-NOVATION



  Starts with What We Have
   Got
  Past Aware

  Future Engaged

  Incremental

  Pragmatic
FIVE INSIGHTS OF RE-
NOVATION




Insight # 1: All things are interconnected
Dealing constructively with change implies RE-NOVATION: new contracts of give and take.
Insight # 2: Current reality sets the agenda.
Re-novation starts with an assessment of what is currently working or not working.
Insight # 3: The past is gone… but we feel its momentum
Re-novation looks back in order to understand the present and frame the future.
Insight # 4: The future is imagined …but we feel its promise
By imagining and even designing a future, we can wrap that idea of a future around the
current agenda and enlarge the envelope of re-novation.
Insight # 5: All things are interconnected on a moving timeline
Re-novation is a process of constant adaptation around the timeline that we build in our
mind.
6. A GENERAL SYSTEMS
MODEL FOR
TERRITORIAL RE-
NOVATION
CAPITALS (WHAT WE HAVE GOT) AND
DRIVERS (WHAT CHANGES WHAT WE HAVE GOT)
MANAGING
TERRITORIAL
TRANSITION
WHY TRANSITION




Global Mega Cycles of Investment and Re-
investment led by energy-technology regimes
Re-Novating  Territories: Regions, Cities and City Regions
REALITIES OF TRANSITION



     Blueprints don’t work
     Real Transitions are messy, fuzzy & zig-zag

     The (perceived) problems and the (partial)
      solutions lie in manipulating systems that work
      / do not work and change in interconnected
      ways
MANAGING TRANSITION

   Drivers: Inside - Out:
          Population Growth
          Workforce Capability

          Competitive Advantage


   Drivers: Outside - In:
          Power Blocs
          Finance Capital

          Networks

          Energy

          Technology

          Generational Values
MANAGING TRANSITION




   Levers: Deliberate Manipulation of Inside Out
    Drivers By Government to Achieve a Desired
    Future
      State investment
      State Regulation
      Partnerships & Coalitions
      Forging of rights and values
STATE LEVERAGE IS CRITICAL AT THE
MIDPOINT OF TRANSITION CYCLES
PLOTTING TIMELINE THROUGH INTER
LOCKING TERRITORIAL SCALE
7. SEVEN STEPS TO
TERRITORIAL RE- NOVATION
SEVEN STEPS

(1) Build a timeline.
(2) What’s working /not working
right now?
(3) How did we get here?
(4) Where do we want to be?
(5) How do we get there?
(6) What story do we build?
(7) What do we do next?
1)BUILD A TIMELINE
W E DEVELOP THE CONCEPT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TIMELINE AND DEAL WITH
DISTANT, DEEP AND PROXIMATE TIME HORIZONS FOR THE TERRITORY
(2) WHAT’S WORKING /NOT WORKING RIGHT NOW?
USING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WE EXPLORE WHAT’S WORKING AND WHAT’S NOT
WORKING NOW.




         Economy

         Social capital

         Natural capital

         Infrastructural Capital

         Governance
3) HOW DID WE GET HERE?
WE WORK BACK FROM THE PRESENT THROUGH OUR PAST TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE SYSTEMS
EVOLVED, LOOKING AT BOTH HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND HOW CHOICES WERE MADE
(4) WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE?
WE REVIEW OR GENERATE ON HOW THE WORLD IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, EXPLORE
POSSIBLE FUTURES AND SKETCH OUT A PLAUSIBLE TERRITORIAL FUTURE WE BELIEVE
THAT WE CAN CREATE.




TERRITORIAL SCENARIO GENERATION IS A BALANCING ACT
BETWEEN
   Likely or possible context scenarios over which there is no control
   Possible territorial scenarios over which there is some control
   Systemic feedback loops between the above
   The need for simplicity
BALANCING ACT: LIKELY OR POSSIBLE
CONTEXT SCENARIOS OVER WHICH
THERE IS NO CONTROL




      Links world scale scenarios, to contintental, state, bio region, city region,
       urban and rural scenarios
      Ideally reduced to a central tendency or “most likely” context scenario so
       as to reduce the range of possibilities
      Generates outside-in Drivers
      The concept of transition greatly simplifies this task
      Context scenarios set the scene for the specific territorial scenarios
BALANCING ACT : POSSIBLE
TERRITORIAL SCENARIOS OVER
WHICH THERE IS SOME CONTROL




   Models inside-out Drivers
   Reactive Response and/or
   Pro-active Opportunism (Levers)
BALANCING ACT: THE NEED FOR
SIMPLICITY




     Understanding and engagement from all types
      of role players
     Focussing policy and decision making
(4) CONTINUED : CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:




Deductive Methodologies:
   Probabilistic Forecasting
   Imaginative projection (crystal balling)
   Future wheels
Inductive Methodologies: select most plausible and desired future from a
range of possibilities
   Selection of key drivers (lead variables) based upon level of uncertainty and
    impact (uncertainty x impact = driver importance)
   Generation of a (limited and useful) range of possible scenarios
   double variable ( 4 quadrant) analysis
   triple variable (cubistic) or multi-variate scenario generation
   Modelling Tools
Re-Novating  Territories: Regions, Cities and City Regions
(4) CONTINUED: CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:




Participative Methodologies
   Managed Iterative thinking process with key leaders, stakeholders, experts
   Incorporating best practical feasible / workable mix of Inductive and
    deductive methods
(5) HOW DO WE GET THERE?
WE BUILD SCENARIOS ON HOW OUR CHOICES WILL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WE WISH
TO CREATE.



THE MOST IMPORTANT, EASILY NEGLECTED SCENARIOS
   Model the implications of near and medium term choices for
    getting to desired plausible future timeline
   Use double or triple variable scenario generation based on
    policy or strategy options
   Do-nothing or “business as usual scenario” in bottom left
    quadrant
   Best choice scenario in top right quadrant
   Other quadrants represent parallel steps
Re-Novating  Territories: Regions, Cities and City Regions
6) WHAT STORY DO WE BUILD?
WE WRITE UP THE STORY AND CREATE A PICTURE OF THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
7) WHAT DO WE DO NEXT?
WE DESIGN OUR SYSTEMS AND SET TARGETS FOR HOW WE WILL CREATE
THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
BIO
ABOUT SHAHID SOLOMON


A City Planner
After graduating as a planner at UCT in 1986, Shahid worked his way to executive level in the City of Cape Town
through its various transitions in the 1990’s with responsibilities for most of the planning, economic development and
tourism related disciplines. This included working on several of Cape Town’s iconic mega-projects and facilitating
local and international partnerships with many organizations.
Development Strategist
Shahid entered consulting practice in 2005 where he has worked on economic strategy, tourism, growth
management, integrated planning and foresight strategies throughout South Africa.
He has designed and managed several business mentoring programmes.
A Re-novator
Shahid has renovated two charming old houses in Cape Town, self-renovated many times over and been a part of
many big and small re-novations in South Africa’s transition.
At the age of 54 he sees himself as a re-novation coach and advisor.
He is self employed.


CAPABILITIES
  City and Regional Planning
  Foresight & Scenario Planning.
  Leadership Coaching & Mentoring
  Programme Management
  Economic Partnerships & Development
  Enterprise Development
  Destination Marketing & Development
SHAHID LIVES IN CAPE TOWN
SOUTH AFRICA




Telephone     +27 (0) 71 917 5011
Telephone:    + 27 (0) 82 6580 617
Email:        shahidsolomon@gmail.com
              shahid@novation2050.co.za
Fax:          +27(0) 86 773 6615
Twitter:       @ShahidSolomon
Skype:         shahidsolomon
Facebook:      shahid.solomon.1@facebook.com
               novation 2050@facebook.com

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Ekurhuleni 2055 vision may 2012
 

Re-Novating Territories: Regions, Cities and City Regions

  • 2. CONTENTS 1. Paradigm of the Futurist 2. Why Territorial Re-novation? 3. A General Systems Model for Territorial Re- Novation 4. Managing Territorial Transition 5. Working the Timeline 6. Seven Steps to Renovation 7. Bio
  • 3. 1. PARADIGM OF THE FUTURIST
  • 4. AN EARLY AND IMPORTANT CHOICE TO MAKE  Feel Good Optimism (transcending risk)  Bright Side of Human Nature  Evolutionary Consciousness  Feel Bad Pessimism (extrapolating risk)  Dark Side of Human Nature  Systemic Failure  Rational Optimism (managing risk)  Power of Catallaxy: spontaneous order created by exchange & specialisation (Hayek)  Desireability of Green Transition for Recapitalisation by Global Finance & Technology Multinationals  New Generational Values  Mobilising Power of Social Networking
  • 6. TERRITORIES  Include: Regions, States, Cities, Towns, Districts
  • 7. TERRITORIES  Commonalities of territories  Systems: social, economic, infrastructure etc.  Scale: Interlock with smaller and greater territories (scale)  Transition: Globally progress through transitions of energy, technology, spatial structuring
  • 8. CONCEPT OF RE-NOVATION  Starts with What We Have Got  Past Aware  Future Engaged  Incremental  Pragmatic
  • 9. FIVE INSIGHTS OF RE- NOVATION Insight # 1: All things are interconnected Dealing constructively with change implies RE-NOVATION: new contracts of give and take. Insight # 2: Current reality sets the agenda. Re-novation starts with an assessment of what is currently working or not working. Insight # 3: The past is gone… but we feel its momentum Re-novation looks back in order to understand the present and frame the future. Insight # 4: The future is imagined …but we feel its promise By imagining and even designing a future, we can wrap that idea of a future around the current agenda and enlarge the envelope of re-novation. Insight # 5: All things are interconnected on a moving timeline Re-novation is a process of constant adaptation around the timeline that we build in our mind.
  • 10. 6. A GENERAL SYSTEMS MODEL FOR TERRITORIAL RE- NOVATION
  • 11. CAPITALS (WHAT WE HAVE GOT) AND DRIVERS (WHAT CHANGES WHAT WE HAVE GOT)
  • 13. WHY TRANSITION Global Mega Cycles of Investment and Re- investment led by energy-technology regimes
  • 15. REALITIES OF TRANSITION  Blueprints don’t work  Real Transitions are messy, fuzzy & zig-zag  The (perceived) problems and the (partial) solutions lie in manipulating systems that work / do not work and change in interconnected ways
  • 16. MANAGING TRANSITION  Drivers: Inside - Out:  Population Growth  Workforce Capability  Competitive Advantage  Drivers: Outside - In:  Power Blocs  Finance Capital  Networks  Energy  Technology  Generational Values
  • 17. MANAGING TRANSITION  Levers: Deliberate Manipulation of Inside Out Drivers By Government to Achieve a Desired Future  State investment  State Regulation  Partnerships & Coalitions  Forging of rights and values
  • 18. STATE LEVERAGE IS CRITICAL AT THE MIDPOINT OF TRANSITION CYCLES
  • 19. PLOTTING TIMELINE THROUGH INTER LOCKING TERRITORIAL SCALE
  • 20. 7. SEVEN STEPS TO TERRITORIAL RE- NOVATION
  • 21. SEVEN STEPS (1) Build a timeline. (2) What’s working /not working right now? (3) How did we get here? (4) Where do we want to be? (5) How do we get there? (6) What story do we build? (7) What do we do next?
  • 22. 1)BUILD A TIMELINE W E DEVELOP THE CONCEPT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TIMELINE AND DEAL WITH DISTANT, DEEP AND PROXIMATE TIME HORIZONS FOR THE TERRITORY
  • 23. (2) WHAT’S WORKING /NOT WORKING RIGHT NOW? USING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WE EXPLORE WHAT’S WORKING AND WHAT’S NOT WORKING NOW. Economy Social capital Natural capital Infrastructural Capital Governance
  • 24. 3) HOW DID WE GET HERE? WE WORK BACK FROM THE PRESENT THROUGH OUR PAST TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE SYSTEMS EVOLVED, LOOKING AT BOTH HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND HOW CHOICES WERE MADE
  • 25. (4) WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE? WE REVIEW OR GENERATE ON HOW THE WORLD IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, EXPLORE POSSIBLE FUTURES AND SKETCH OUT A PLAUSIBLE TERRITORIAL FUTURE WE BELIEVE THAT WE CAN CREATE. TERRITORIAL SCENARIO GENERATION IS A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN  Likely or possible context scenarios over which there is no control  Possible territorial scenarios over which there is some control  Systemic feedback loops between the above  The need for simplicity
  • 26. BALANCING ACT: LIKELY OR POSSIBLE CONTEXT SCENARIOS OVER WHICH THERE IS NO CONTROL  Links world scale scenarios, to contintental, state, bio region, city region, urban and rural scenarios  Ideally reduced to a central tendency or “most likely” context scenario so as to reduce the range of possibilities  Generates outside-in Drivers  The concept of transition greatly simplifies this task  Context scenarios set the scene for the specific territorial scenarios
  • 27. BALANCING ACT : POSSIBLE TERRITORIAL SCENARIOS OVER WHICH THERE IS SOME CONTROL  Models inside-out Drivers  Reactive Response and/or  Pro-active Opportunism (Levers)
  • 28. BALANCING ACT: THE NEED FOR SIMPLICITY  Understanding and engagement from all types of role players  Focussing policy and decision making
  • 29. (4) CONTINUED : CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME- LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH: Deductive Methodologies:  Probabilistic Forecasting  Imaginative projection (crystal balling)  Future wheels Inductive Methodologies: select most plausible and desired future from a range of possibilities  Selection of key drivers (lead variables) based upon level of uncertainty and impact (uncertainty x impact = driver importance)  Generation of a (limited and useful) range of possible scenarios  double variable ( 4 quadrant) analysis  triple variable (cubistic) or multi-variate scenario generation  Modelling Tools
  • 31. (4) CONTINUED: CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME- LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH: Participative Methodologies  Managed Iterative thinking process with key leaders, stakeholders, experts  Incorporating best practical feasible / workable mix of Inductive and deductive methods
  • 32. (5) HOW DO WE GET THERE? WE BUILD SCENARIOS ON HOW OUR CHOICES WILL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WE WISH TO CREATE. THE MOST IMPORTANT, EASILY NEGLECTED SCENARIOS  Model the implications of near and medium term choices for getting to desired plausible future timeline  Use double or triple variable scenario generation based on policy or strategy options  Do-nothing or “business as usual scenario” in bottom left quadrant  Best choice scenario in top right quadrant  Other quadrants represent parallel steps
  • 34. 6) WHAT STORY DO WE BUILD? WE WRITE UP THE STORY AND CREATE A PICTURE OF THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
  • 35. 7) WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? WE DESIGN OUR SYSTEMS AND SET TARGETS FOR HOW WE WILL CREATE THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
  • 36. BIO
  • 37. ABOUT SHAHID SOLOMON A City Planner After graduating as a planner at UCT in 1986, Shahid worked his way to executive level in the City of Cape Town through its various transitions in the 1990’s with responsibilities for most of the planning, economic development and tourism related disciplines. This included working on several of Cape Town’s iconic mega-projects and facilitating local and international partnerships with many organizations. Development Strategist Shahid entered consulting practice in 2005 where he has worked on economic strategy, tourism, growth management, integrated planning and foresight strategies throughout South Africa. He has designed and managed several business mentoring programmes. A Re-novator Shahid has renovated two charming old houses in Cape Town, self-renovated many times over and been a part of many big and small re-novations in South Africa’s transition. At the age of 54 he sees himself as a re-novation coach and advisor. He is self employed. CAPABILITIES  City and Regional Planning  Foresight & Scenario Planning.  Leadership Coaching & Mentoring  Programme Management  Economic Partnerships & Development  Enterprise Development  Destination Marketing & Development
  • 38. SHAHID LIVES IN CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA Telephone +27 (0) 71 917 5011 Telephone: + 27 (0) 82 6580 617 Email: shahidsolomon@gmail.com shahid@novation2050.co.za Fax: +27(0) 86 773 6615 Twitter: @ShahidSolomon Skype: shahidsolomon Facebook: shahid.solomon.1@facebook.com novation 2050@facebook.com