Planning to 2030, 2050 and beyond has become important throughout the world because:
• An immense amount of change would be needed in only 40 years
• Change will profoundly affect every person, family, business, farm, village, city and government on earth in complex and unpredictable ways.
• The pace is accelerating, predictions are becoming outdated faster
Re-novation means making room for realising the fullest potential of a regional territory. It requires embracing the present, the past and the future and coming up with an ambition that inspiring, a governance model and service model that works and a clear plan going forward.
The presentation outlines 5 insights and seven steps to Re-novation
2. CONTENTS
1. Paradigm of the Futurist
2. Why Territorial Re-novation?
3. A General Systems Model for Territorial Re-
Novation
4. Managing Territorial Transition
5. Working the Timeline
6. Seven Steps to Renovation
7. Bio
4. AN EARLY AND IMPORTANT
CHOICE TO MAKE
Feel Good Optimism (transcending
risk)
Bright Side of Human Nature
Evolutionary Consciousness
Feel Bad Pessimism (extrapolating
risk)
Dark Side of Human Nature
Systemic Failure
Rational Optimism (managing risk)
Power of Catallaxy: spontaneous order
created by exchange & specialisation
(Hayek)
Desireability of Green Transition for
Recapitalisation by Global Finance &
Technology Multinationals
New Generational Values
Mobilising Power of Social Networking
7. TERRITORIES
Commonalities of territories
Systems: social, economic, infrastructure
etc.
Scale: Interlock with smaller and greater
territories (scale)
Transition: Globally progress through
transitions of energy, technology, spatial
structuring
8. CONCEPT OF RE-NOVATION
Starts with What We Have
Got
Past Aware
Future Engaged
Incremental
Pragmatic
9. FIVE INSIGHTS OF RE-
NOVATION
Insight # 1: All things are interconnected
Dealing constructively with change implies RE-NOVATION: new contracts of give and take.
Insight # 2: Current reality sets the agenda.
Re-novation starts with an assessment of what is currently working or not working.
Insight # 3: The past is gone… but we feel its momentum
Re-novation looks back in order to understand the present and frame the future.
Insight # 4: The future is imagined …but we feel its promise
By imagining and even designing a future, we can wrap that idea of a future around the
current agenda and enlarge the envelope of re-novation.
Insight # 5: All things are interconnected on a moving timeline
Re-novation is a process of constant adaptation around the timeline that we build in our
mind.
10. 6. A GENERAL SYSTEMS
MODEL FOR
TERRITORIAL RE-
NOVATION
11. CAPITALS (WHAT WE HAVE GOT) AND
DRIVERS (WHAT CHANGES WHAT WE HAVE GOT)
15. REALITIES OF TRANSITION
Blueprints don’t work
Real Transitions are messy, fuzzy & zig-zag
The (perceived) problems and the (partial)
solutions lie in manipulating systems that work
/ do not work and change in interconnected
ways
16. MANAGING TRANSITION
Drivers: Inside - Out:
Population Growth
Workforce Capability
Competitive Advantage
Drivers: Outside - In:
Power Blocs
Finance Capital
Networks
Energy
Technology
Generational Values
17. MANAGING TRANSITION
Levers: Deliberate Manipulation of Inside Out
Drivers By Government to Achieve a Desired
Future
State investment
State Regulation
Partnerships & Coalitions
Forging of rights and values
21. SEVEN STEPS
(1) Build a timeline.
(2) What’s working /not working
right now?
(3) How did we get here?
(4) Where do we want to be?
(5) How do we get there?
(6) What story do we build?
(7) What do we do next?
22. 1)BUILD A TIMELINE
W E DEVELOP THE CONCEPT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TIMELINE AND DEAL WITH
DISTANT, DEEP AND PROXIMATE TIME HORIZONS FOR THE TERRITORY
23. (2) WHAT’S WORKING /NOT WORKING RIGHT NOW?
USING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WE EXPLORE WHAT’S WORKING AND WHAT’S NOT
WORKING NOW.
Economy
Social capital
Natural capital
Infrastructural Capital
Governance
24. 3) HOW DID WE GET HERE?
WE WORK BACK FROM THE PRESENT THROUGH OUR PAST TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE SYSTEMS
EVOLVED, LOOKING AT BOTH HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND HOW CHOICES WERE MADE
25. (4) WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE?
WE REVIEW OR GENERATE ON HOW THE WORLD IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, EXPLORE
POSSIBLE FUTURES AND SKETCH OUT A PLAUSIBLE TERRITORIAL FUTURE WE BELIEVE
THAT WE CAN CREATE.
TERRITORIAL SCENARIO GENERATION IS A BALANCING ACT
BETWEEN
Likely or possible context scenarios over which there is no control
Possible territorial scenarios over which there is some control
Systemic feedback loops between the above
The need for simplicity
26. BALANCING ACT: LIKELY OR POSSIBLE
CONTEXT SCENARIOS OVER WHICH
THERE IS NO CONTROL
Links world scale scenarios, to contintental, state, bio region, city region,
urban and rural scenarios
Ideally reduced to a central tendency or “most likely” context scenario so
as to reduce the range of possibilities
Generates outside-in Drivers
The concept of transition greatly simplifies this task
Context scenarios set the scene for the specific territorial scenarios
27. BALANCING ACT : POSSIBLE
TERRITORIAL SCENARIOS OVER
WHICH THERE IS SOME CONTROL
Models inside-out Drivers
Reactive Response and/or
Pro-active Opportunism (Levers)
28. BALANCING ACT: THE NEED FOR
SIMPLICITY
Understanding and engagement from all types
of role players
Focussing policy and decision making
29. (4) CONTINUED : CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:
Deductive Methodologies:
Probabilistic Forecasting
Imaginative projection (crystal balling)
Future wheels
Inductive Methodologies: select most plausible and desired future from a
range of possibilities
Selection of key drivers (lead variables) based upon level of uncertainty and
impact (uncertainty x impact = driver importance)
Generation of a (limited and useful) range of possible scenarios
double variable ( 4 quadrant) analysis
triple variable (cubistic) or multi-variate scenario generation
Modelling Tools
31. (4) CONTINUED: CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-
LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:
Participative Methodologies
Managed Iterative thinking process with key leaders, stakeholders, experts
Incorporating best practical feasible / workable mix of Inductive and
deductive methods
32. (5) HOW DO WE GET THERE?
WE BUILD SCENARIOS ON HOW OUR CHOICES WILL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WE WISH
TO CREATE.
THE MOST IMPORTANT, EASILY NEGLECTED SCENARIOS
Model the implications of near and medium term choices for
getting to desired plausible future timeline
Use double or triple variable scenario generation based on
policy or strategy options
Do-nothing or “business as usual scenario” in bottom left
quadrant
Best choice scenario in top right quadrant
Other quadrants represent parallel steps
34. 6) WHAT STORY DO WE BUILD?
WE WRITE UP THE STORY AND CREATE A PICTURE OF THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
35. 7) WHAT DO WE DO NEXT?
WE DESIGN OUR SYSTEMS AND SET TARGETS FOR HOW WE WILL CREATE
THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.
37. ABOUT SHAHID SOLOMON
A City Planner
After graduating as a planner at UCT in 1986, Shahid worked his way to executive level in the City of Cape Town
through its various transitions in the 1990’s with responsibilities for most of the planning, economic development and
tourism related disciplines. This included working on several of Cape Town’s iconic mega-projects and facilitating
local and international partnerships with many organizations.
Development Strategist
Shahid entered consulting practice in 2005 where he has worked on economic strategy, tourism, growth
management, integrated planning and foresight strategies throughout South Africa.
He has designed and managed several business mentoring programmes.
A Re-novator
Shahid has renovated two charming old houses in Cape Town, self-renovated many times over and been a part of
many big and small re-novations in South Africa’s transition.
At the age of 54 he sees himself as a re-novation coach and advisor.
He is self employed.
CAPABILITIES
City and Regional Planning
Foresight & Scenario Planning.
Leadership Coaching & Mentoring
Programme Management
Economic Partnerships & Development
Enterprise Development
Destination Marketing & Development
38. SHAHID LIVES IN CAPE TOWN
SOUTH AFRICA
Telephone +27 (0) 71 917 5011
Telephone: + 27 (0) 82 6580 617
Email: shahidsolomon@gmail.com
shahid@novation2050.co.za
Fax: +27(0) 86 773 6615
Twitter: @ShahidSolomon
Skype: shahidsolomon
Facebook: shahid.solomon.1@facebook.com
novation 2050@facebook.com