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Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation 
of Consumer Behavior and Fishscape 
Omid Roozmand 
Environmental Studies, Dartmouth C...
Outline 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 ABM of Consumer Beh...
Outline 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 ABM of Consumer Beh...
Introduction 
Agent-Based Modeling 
Pictures: (Gilbert 2009) 
An agent-based model is a class of 
computational models for...
Introduction 
Consumer Behavior 
Why do people need luxury products? 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Beha...
Introduction 
Consumer Behavior 
$6.88 million for a car plate! 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior ...
Introduction (Human Behavior) 
Cultural 
Psychological 
How Do Consumers Behave? 
Social 
Personal 
Agent-Based Modeling a...
Introduction 
Consumer Behavior 
• Why do consumers of different countries have different purchasing 
behavior? 
• Why do ...
Introduction 
ABM: Understanding and Predicting the consumer behavior and its Consequences 
 1- Understanding and Predict...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 AB...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
- Culture (Power Distance, Individualism, 
Masculinity, UA) 
- Personality: Big Five (OCEAN) 
- ...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Consumer Behavior Decision Process 
Need 
Recognition 
Information 
Search 
Evaluation Purchase ...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Hofstede Cultural Model 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand ...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Human Needs as Main Drives! 
 Social Status 
 Social Responsibility 
 Status Seeking (Power) ...
Agent-Based Model (MASQ Meta Model) (Ferber 2009) 
Internal External 
Mind 
Culture 
Body/Object 
Space 
ABM of Consumer B...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 AB...
ABM of Consumer Behavior (Conceptual Model) (Roozmand 2011) 
Mind 
Culture 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consume...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 AB...
Calculating Weights of Needs 
max{ (1 )*(1 ) * , } ss ss w  Pdi*status*DT  Pdi status A  
max{ (1 )*(1 ) * * * , } sr...
- Consumer agent perceive the products in the 
market 
- Consumer agent sees the other consumer agents 
and their products...
Actual State 
Actual state 
(1 ) t (wss *prss ) 
SS as e   
Actual State (During Consumption) 
t 
t 
SS as (1 decay )*a...
t 
SS ds  f ds society ds market 
Social influence on desired state 
 
w 
SS prSS 
pr PRCA 
N 
t 
SS ds society e 
New p...
Discrepancy between actual and desired state 
t 
Need D ds as 
t 
SS 
i 
SS 
i 
  
Arousal 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Need 
i i...
Select the a product which satisfies the aroused 
need. 
t 
pr E ds as 
 
  
k k 
k  
{ss,sr,st ,saf ,nov,aff } 
t 
se...
Experimental Results 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 ABM of...
Experimental Results (Individual Decision Making) 
1- There are totally 4 agents where 2 of them use our model and initial...
Experimental Results (Country-Level Results) 
Eleven European Countries. Social Status 
(Car Purchasing Behavior) 
Agent-B...
Experimental Results 
Eleven European Countries. Social Responsibility 
(Car Purchasing Behavior) 
Agent-Based Modeling an...
Experimental Results 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 ABM of...
Motivation 
Consumer Behavior 
Do we need it all? 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand ...
CCAD 
Maximizers vs. Satisficers 
Maximizers: Consumers will find the best bundle of product regarding their 
budget const...
CCAD 
Maximizers Algorithm 
Maximizers: We applied dynamic programming to find the best bundle 
푏푢푛푑푙푒푏푒푠푡 = 푎푟푔 푚푎푥 
(푥1,...
CCAD 
Satisficers Algorithm 
Satisficers: Genetic algorithm has been applied for satisficers to find the first 
affordable...
CCAD 
Items Price Utility 
Item X 50 40 
Item Y 30 20 
Item Z 100 90 
Chromosome 1 = <2, 1, 5> 
Utility(Chromosome 1) = 2*...
CCAD 
Satisficers Algorithm 
Initial Population 
Sort Chromosomes 
Crossover 
Mutation 
Re-Structure 
Chromosomes 
Satisfi...
CCAD- Results 
Maximizers- Income influence 
Products 
1- Item X: Low-quality disposable items 
2- Item Y: Low-quality dur...
CCAD- Results 
Maximizers vs. Satisficers 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environm...
CCAD- Results 
Maximizers vs. Satisficers 
Satisficers purchase more than Maximizers! 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation...
Future Work 
• Adding social norms to consumer agents decision process 
• Building a social network and evaluating the eff...
Future Work for Consumer behavior 
Connection of GIS Simulation with our Agent-Based Platform 
Agent-Based Modeling and Si...
Experimental Results 
 Introduction 
o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science 
o Case Study: Consumer Behavior 
 ABM of...
Fisheries- Simulation 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartm...
Motivation 
Final Aim of the Project 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental...
Fisheries- Results 
Different runs with different cheating probability 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Be...
Fisheries- Results 
10 groups of fishers with different characteristics 
G1: Fishers that never cheat 
G3: Not sharing inf...
Motivation 
Final Aim of the Project 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental...
Thank you! 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth Colleg...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Theory 
Culture Personality Need 
Extracting relationship 
Personality and Needs 
Computational ...
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Conceptual Model - Interactions 
Consumer Agents Seller Agents 
Consumer-Seller Space 
Products ...
Experimental Results 
25 Countries 
O E A Wealth 
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD (PPP) 
Austria 49.29 10.34 50.61 9.21 45.90 8.34...
Experimental Results 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmo...
Initial 
Product 
Experimental Results 
Pdi O E A Wealth Status 
Agent A 0.30 0.55 0.60 0.50 0.70 0.70 1 
Agent B 0.30 0.5...
Experimental Results 
Factor Countries Our- 
Result 
EMS Our- 
Results-SS 
EMS McCrae World Bank Data 
PDI 11 SR= -0.89 En...
Introduction 
Consumer Behavior 
• Consumer behavior studies the individuals and the processes they use to 
select, use an...
Wealth 
(PPP)$ 
Experimental Results 
Pdi Openness Extraversion Agreeableness 
(SD=0.05) 
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD 
France ...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Hofstede Cultural Model 
Masculinity/ 
Feminity 
Cultural Differences 
Individualism/ 
Collectiv...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Hofstede Cultural Model 
Masculinity/ 
Feminity 
Cultural Differences 
Individualism/ 
Collectiv...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Big-Five Model of Personality (OCEAN) 
Openness 
Conscientiousness 
Extraversion 
Agreeableness ...
ABM of Consumer Behavior 
Human Needs as Main Drives! 
Needs 
Social Status 
Social Responsibility 
Power 
Safety 
Novelty...
Experimental Results 
Wealth! and Social Status 
Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand En...
Belief 
Update 
Agent‘s 
State 
Recognition 
S 
T 
A 
T 
E 
Personality 
Perception 
Need 
Action 
Estimation 
Wealth 
Cul...
57 امید روزمند 
سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ 
و شخصیت 
20/7/1390 
63...
57 امید روزمند 
سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ 
و شخصیت 
20/7/1390 
64...
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Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Consumer Behavior Based on Culture and Personality

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  1. 1. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior and Fishscape Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  2. 2. Outline  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  3. 3. Outline  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  4. 4. Introduction Agent-Based Modeling Pictures: (Gilbert 2009) An agent-based model is a class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole. Wikipedia Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  5. 5. Introduction Consumer Behavior Why do people need luxury products? Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  6. 6. Introduction Consumer Behavior $6.88 million for a car plate! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  7. 7. Introduction (Human Behavior) Cultural Psychological How Do Consumers Behave? Social Personal Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  8. 8. Introduction Consumer Behavior • Why do consumers of different countries have different purchasing behavior? • Why do consumers of one country, or even of one family have different purchasing behavior? • How are consumers influenced by other consumers? Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  9. 9. Introduction ABM: Understanding and Predicting the consumer behavior and its Consequences  1- Understanding and Predicting the Individual consumer Behavior  2- Understanding and Predicting the Consumption Behavior of a Society  3- The Impact of the Behavior of Society on Environment Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  10. 10. ABM of Consumer Behavior  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of AFishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  11. 11. ABM of Consumer Behavior - Culture (Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, UA) - Personality: Big Five (OCEAN) - 6 Related Needs From Maslow, Max- Neef Sociological and Psychological Theories Five Stages model of Consumer Behavior Consumer Behavior And Economics Agent-Based Technology- MASQ Meta Model Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence ABM of Consumer Behavior Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  12. 12. ABM of Consumer Behavior Consumer Behavior Decision Process Need Recognition Information Search Evaluation Purchase Post- Purchase Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  13. 13. ABM of Consumer Behavior Hofstede Cultural Model Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  14. 14. ABM of Consumer Behavior Human Needs as Main Drives!  Social Status  Social Responsibility  Status Seeking (Power)  Safety  Novelty  Affiliation Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  15. 15. Agent-Based Model (MASQ Meta Model) (Ferber 2009) Internal External Mind Culture Body/Object Space ABM of Consumer Behavior Individual Collective Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  16. 16. ABM of Consumer Behavior  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers vs. Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  17. 17. ABM of Consumer Behavior (Conceptual Model) (Roozmand 2011) Mind Culture Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  18. 18. ABM of Consumer Behavior  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers vs. Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  19. 19. Calculating Weights of Needs max{ (1 )*(1 ) * , } ss ss w  Pdi*status*DT  Pdi status A  max{ (1 )*(1 ) * * * , } sr sr w  Pdi status A pdi status DT  w maxMas*avg(O, E,1 A) (1 Mas)* A,0 st     w Mas A saf  (1 )* max{max{ , (1 )}* *(1 ), } nov nov w  IDV UA O UA O  max{[ (1 ) * ( ) *(1 )], } aff aff w   Ind avg E  A  Ind  A  Computational Model Mind Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 19 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  20. 20. - Consumer agent perceive the products in the market - Consumer agent sees the other consumer agents and their products Computational Model Mind Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 20 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  21. 21. Actual State Actual state (1 ) t (wss *prss ) SS as e   Actual State (During Consumption) t t SS as (1 decay )*as 1    SS SS Computational Model Mind Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 21 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  22. 22. t SS ds  f ds society ds market Social influence on desired state  w SS prSS pr PRCA N t SS ds society e New products’ influence on desired state  w SS prSS pr PR N t SS ds market e t SS ds  AVG ds society ds market 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 22 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS ) 1 ( * _ 1     ) 1 ( * _ 1     ( _ , _ ) t SS t SS Computational Model Desired State ( _ , _ ) t SS t SS
  23. 23. Discrepancy between actual and desired state t Need D ds as t SS i SS i   Arousal       Need i i    Need i i t Need t Need True D False D Aroused w W    (1 )* (1 )*AVG_Price   1  Need Needi i e Computational Model Mind Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 23 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  24. 24. Select the a product which satisfies the aroused need. t pr E ds as    k k k  {ss,sr,st ,saf ,nov,aff } t sel pr pr pr  arg min E Computational Model Mind Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 24 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  25. 25. Experimental Results  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  26. 26. Experimental Results (Individual Decision Making) 1- There are totally 4 agents where 2 of them use our model and initially hold low status product 2- There are 2 products (high social status, low social status) Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  27. 27. Experimental Results (Country-Level Results) Eleven European Countries. Social Status (Car Purchasing Behavior) Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  28. 28. Experimental Results Eleven European Countries. Social Responsibility (Car Purchasing Behavior) Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  29. 29. Experimental Results  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  30. 30. Motivation Consumer Behavior Do we need it all? Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  31. 31. CCAD Maximizers vs. Satisficers Maximizers: Consumers will find the best bundle of product regarding their budget constraints Satisficers: Consumers are satisfied by any affordable bundle of items which provides a utility above their threshold. They are not looking for best bundle! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  32. 32. CCAD Maximizers Algorithm Maximizers: We applied dynamic programming to find the best bundle 푏푢푛푑푙푒푏푒푠푡 = 푎푟푔 푚푎푥 (푥1, 푥2, … , 푥푛) 푛 푖=1 푥푖푢(푖푡푚푖 ) 푊ℎ푒푟푒 푖=1 푥푖푝푖 ≤ 푏푢푑푔푒푡 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  33. 33. CCAD Satisficers Algorithm Satisficers: Genetic algorithm has been applied for satisficers to find the first affordable bundle. Genetic Algorithm is a technique in computer science to find near optimum-solutions for search problems Chromosome: Each chromosome includes a bundle of available products Chromosome’s Utility: 푁푥 ∗ 푢 푖푡푚푥 + 푁푦 ∗ 푢 푖푡푚푦 + 푁푧 ∗ 푢(푖푡푚푧 ). Chromosome’s cost: 푁푥 ∗ 푝푥 + 푁푦 ∗ 푝푦 + 푁푧 ∗ 푝푧 Feasible Chromosome: (퐶표푠푡 ≤ 퐵푑푔). Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  34. 34. CCAD Items Price Utility Item X 50 40 Item Y 30 20 Item Z 100 90 Chromosome 1 = <2, 1, 5> Utility(Chromosome 1) = 2*40 + 1*20 + 5*90 = 550 Cost(Chromosome 1) = 2*50 + 1*30 + 5*100 = 630 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  35. 35. CCAD Satisficers Algorithm Initial Population Sort Chromosomes Crossover Mutation Re-Structure Chromosomes Satisficing Chromosome has been found Yes No Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  36. 36. CCAD- Results Maximizers- Income influence Products 1- Item X: Low-quality disposable items 2- Item Y: Low-quality durable items 3- Item Z: High-quality durable items Consumer Agents 100 Maximizers agents System 100 runs, and 6 months simulation Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  37. 37. CCAD- Results Maximizers vs. Satisficers Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  38. 38. CCAD- Results Maximizers vs. Satisficers Satisficers purchase more than Maximizers! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  39. 39. Future Work • Adding social norms to consumer agents decision process • Building a social network and evaluating the effects of social norms on agents’ behavior • Finding the effect of consumer behavior on resource scarcity!! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  40. 40. Future Work for Consumer behavior Connection of GIS Simulation with our Agent-Based Platform Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  41. 41. Experimental Results  Introduction o Agent-Based Modeling and Social Science o Case Study: Consumer Behavior  ABM of Consumer Behavior o M&S of Culture and Personality • Conceptual Model • Computational Model • Experimental Results o Consumer Choice Aggregated Demand (CCAD) • Maximizers • Satisficers • Results  ABM of Fishscape  Conclusion and Future Work Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  42. 42. Fisheries- Simulation Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  43. 43. Motivation Final Aim of the Project Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  44. 44. Fisheries- Results Different runs with different cheating probability Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  45. 45. Fisheries- Results 10 groups of fishers with different characteristics G1: Fishers that never cheat G3: Not sharing information when they have not much information G5: Cheating by not sharing true information G7: Cheating by sharing some false information G9: They never share any information! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  46. 46. Motivation Final Aim of the Project Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  47. 47. Thank you! Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  48. 48. ABM of Consumer Behavior Theory Culture Personality Need Extracting relationship Personality and Needs Computational Model F(C, P, N) Consumer behavior Multi-Agent System (MASQ) Infrastructure based on Repast Symphony Experimental results Verification Evaluation Real Data Acceptable Yes No Agent Parameter Process Space Expert Data Input to Monitor Extracting relationship Culture and Needs Selecting Math Functions and Algorithms Condition End Expert Transaction Mind Process Development Stages Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  49. 49. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  50. 50. ABM of Consumer Behavior Conceptual Model - Interactions Consumer Agents Seller Agents Consumer-Seller Space Products in the market Consumers’ Inboxes c … 1 c2 cn Sellers’ Inbox s … 1 s2 sn Message Handler Consumers-Sellers Message Handler Consumers-Sellers Inboxes for agent communication c … 1 c2 cn Consumers’ Inboxes Message Handler Consumers Consumer Space Product … Consumer Mind Consumer Body Seller Mind Consumer – Seller Body Interaction: Body-Space Interaction: MH-SpaceItem Inbox Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  51. 51. Experimental Results 25 Countries O E A Wealth Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD (PPP) Austria 49.29 10.34 50.61 9.21 45.90 8.34 66,639 Belgium 54.59 8.55 45.99 10.08 45.07 9.02 85,818 Denmark 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 66,191 Finland 50.33 11.04 49.84 9.26 49.46 8.82 38,754 France 48.09 9.52 45.44 8.77 46.64 8.19 93,729 Germany 47.80 9.32 50.31 8.99 45.08 8.17 89,871 Greece 51.53 8.91 48.60 7.14 52.42 9.04 72,825 Ireland 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 89,327 Italy 50.00 9.99 49.80 8.09 46.52 8.59 119,704 Netherlands 49.94 9.21 49.75 9.22 46.08 8.77 120,086 Norway 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 72,254 Portugal 50.29 9.51 48.06 9.67 49.52 8.76 53,357 Spain 49.64 9.70 49.00 8.28 45.26 8.57 92,253 Sweden 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 80,091 Switzerland 52.62 9.38 50.47 8.81 47.69 8.19 144,186 UK 45.97 9.71 49.79 9.68 47.31 9.44 128,959 Australia 50.07 8.78 48.98 10.06 47.51 10.70 90,906 Canada 48.75 9.96 48.32 9.71 49.14 9.13 89,252 Hong Kong 41.64 9.11 46.91 7.59 42.69 8.31 202,189 Israel 50.95 10.13 48.65 8.40 49.44 9.33 64,034 Japan 41.53 10.46 46.73 8.06 42.21 8.81 124,858 South Korea 44.30 8.74 44.86 6.71 44.11 6.85 45,849 New Zealand 49.49 8.78 50.61 9.36 46.83 9.19 55,823 Singapore 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 113,631 United States 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 50.00 10.00 143,727 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  52. 52. Experimental Results Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  53. 53. Initial Product Experimental Results Pdi O E A Wealth Status Agent A 0.30 0.55 0.60 0.50 0.70 0.70 1 Agent B 0.30 0.55 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.70 1 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  54. 54. Experimental Results Factor Countries Our- Result EMS Our- Results-SS EMS McCrae World Bank Data PDI 11 SR= -0.89 Env= -0.62 SS= 0.83 Design= 0.50 Int Image= 0.49 MAS 11 Saf= -0.55 Safety= -0.39 St = o.71 Advanced Tech= 0.51 Motor = 0.56 IND 25 Nov = 0.5415 Trying New Brands = 0.82 Aff = -.718 Number of Cofe per million population = -0.55 Adopting Radio=0.883 TV = 0.888 Mobile=0.469 Fax = 0.624 PC = 0.801 Internet Hosts = 0.873 UA 25 Nov = -0.59 Image of car =0.7 Adopting Radio=-.41 TV = ----- Mobile=-0.77 Fax = -0.2 PC = -0.39 Internet Hosts = -0.46 O Nov = 0.57 Dom = 0.52 Dom= 0.45 Ach = 0.46 Change = 0.6 E Aff = 0.61 Dom = 0.5 Dom= 0.38 Ex = 0.65 Aff = 0.83 A Dom = -0.55 Aff = 0.57 Dom=-.46 Agg= -0.68 Aff= 0.19 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  55. 55. Introduction Consumer Behavior • Consumer behavior studies the individuals and the processes they use to select, use and dispose of products or services to satisfy their aroused needs and the impacts that these processes have on the consumer and environment. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  56. 56. Wealth (PPP)$ Experimental Results Pdi Openness Extraversion Agreeableness (SD=0.05) Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD France 68 48.09 9.52 45.44 8.77 46.64 8.19 93729 Belgium 65 54.59 8.55 45.99 10.08 45.07 9.02 85818 Portugal 63 50.29 9.51 48.06 9.67 49.52 8.76 53357 Spain 57 49.64 9.70 49.00 8.28 45.26 8.57 92253 Italy 50 50.00 9.99 49.80 8.09 46.52 8.59 119704 Netherlands 38 49.94 9.21 49.75 9.22 46.08 8.77 120086 UK 35 45.97 9.71 49.79 9.68 47.31 9.44 128959 Germany 35 47.80 9.32 50.31 8.99 45.08 8.17 89871 Switzerland 34 52.62 9.38 50.47 8.81 47.69 8.19 144186 Finland 33 50.33 11.04 49.84 9.26 49.46 8.82 38754 Austria 11 49.29 10.34 50.61 9.21 45.90 8.34 66639 France Belgium Portugal Spain Italy NL UK Germany Swiss Finland Austria xm 0.235 0.238 0.088 0.229 0.364 0.404 0.463 0.292 0.524 0.081 0.293 α 1.579 1.730 0.947 1.579 2.368 3.126 3.644 2.540 4.195 1.162 5.992 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  57. 57. ABM of Consumer Behavior Hofstede Cultural Model Masculinity/ Feminity Cultural Differences Individualism/ Collectivism Power Distance Uncertainty Avoidance Long Term/ Short Term Indulgence/ Restraint Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  58. 58. ABM of Consumer Behavior Hofstede Cultural Model Masculinity/ Feminity Cultural Differences Individualism/ Collectivism Power Distance Uncertainty Avoidance Long Term/ Short Term Indulgence/ Restraint Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  59. 59. ABM of Consumer Behavior Big-Five Model of Personality (OCEAN) Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism Low Scores High Scores Down to earth, practical, rational Imaginative, Creative, Loves ‘new’ Down to earth, practical, rational Organized, Disciplined Quiet, Independent, Cautious Talkative, Active, Seek Novelty and Excitement Suspicious, Critical, Irritable Trusting, Lenient, Good-natured Calm, Unemotional Worried, Emotional Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  60. 60. ABM of Consumer Behavior Human Needs as Main Drives! Needs Social Status Social Responsibility Power Safety Novelty Affiliation Cultural Context Power Distance Masculinity Individualism Uncertainty Avoidance + - + - + - - Affected BY: Behavior Imitate the same status people Find a product which is environment-friendly Compete with others Find a product which safe and useful for family Try to be different from other people Imitate the behavior of group members Products- Same social status people Products Products- All people who have better product Products Products- Other people In-group members Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  61. 61. Experimental Results Wealth! and Social Status Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College
  62. 62. Belief Update Agent‘s State Recognition S T A T E Personality Perception Need Action Estimation Wealth Culture dimensions Calculating Weight for Social Status Need w     57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 62 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS } ss max{ Pdi*status*DT (1 Pdi)*(1 status)*A,μ ss Computational Model Mind
  63. 63. 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 63 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS
  64. 64. 57 امید روزمند سمینار دفاع از پایان نامه دکتری: مدل سازی مبتنی بر عامل رفتار خریدار بر اساس فرهنگ و شخصیت 20/7/1390 64 57 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Consumer Behavior Omid Roozmand Dartmouth College, ENVS

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