Presentation given on 'Policy coherence in the WLEFC nexus: EU and international policies' by Stefania Munaretto and Maria Witmer, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, at Lunch Seminar, WRI, Washington D.C.

1. Policy coherence in
the WLEFC nexus:
EU and international
policies
Lunch seminar, WRI, Washington D.C.
Stefania Munaretto
Maria Witmer
PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency
May 24th, 2017

2. 2
EU funded project - SIM4NEXUS
• Sustainable Integrated
Management FOR the NEXUS of
water-land-food-energy-climate
for a resource efficient Europe
• Integrated knowledge and tools
(serious game) to evaluate
impacts of resource use and
policies on NX
• 26 partners from16 countries
• 2016-2020

3. 3
Project structure

4. 4
Defining the WLEFCN nexus
Analytical approach
Systematic process of inquiry that explicitly account for WLEFC
interactions for better understanding relationships and providing
integrated knowledge for planning and decision making

5. 5
Defining the WLEFCN nexus
Governance approach
Guidance for policy decisions through an explicit focus on
interactions between WLEFC policy goals and instruments in order
to enhance cross-sectoral collaboration and policy coherence

6. 6
Defining the WLEFCN nexus
Emerging discourse
Emphasize synergies, conflicts and trade-offs emerging from
the interactions at bio-physical, socio-economic, and policy
and governance level in the WLEFC nexus (boundary concept)

7. 7
WLEFC nexus framework
A systematic process of scientific inquiry
and of coherent policy design that focuses
on synergies, conflicts and trade-offs
emerging in the interactions at bio-
physical, socio-economic, and governance
level in the WLEFC NX
• Equal weight of NX domains
• Focus on interactions
• Bilateral
• Synergistic
• Conflicting (trade-offs)
Food Land
Water
Energy
Climate
Trade-offs
Synergies
Government
(Policy/Regulation)

8. 8
Policy coherence in SIM4NEXUS
Policy coherence refers to the systematic effort to reduce conflicts
and promote synergies within and across individual policy areas at
different spatial scales
Policy coherence within and across sectors and scales
Policy
inputs
Policy
processes
Policy content:
goals and means
Policy
implementation
Contextual factors and
unforeseen events
Outcomes
and impacts
(adapted from Nilsson et al., 2012)

9. 9
Policy interactions at different levels
Policy area
Administrative/spatial scale
Horizontal Vertical
Internal
e.g. EU climate mitigation targets vs EU
carbon emission cap, or vs EU burden
sharing or vs EU ETS
e.g. global climate policy vs
EU climate policy
External e.g. EU food policy vs EU climate policy
e.g. global climate policy vs
EU energy policy
A causal relationship between two policies in which one policy
exerts influence on the other either intentionally or
unintentionally
policy A>policy B ≠ policy B>policy A

10. 10
Typology of interactions and scoring system
(Nilsson et al., 2016)
+ + +

11. 11
Density of interactions: hotspots
W1
W3
E3
F4
F5
L2
L3
L4
C2
W2
W4
E1
E4
E5
F1
F2
C3
E2
F3
L1
C1
NEXUS CRITICAL
SYSTEM (NCS)
NEXUS CRITICAL
SYSTEM (NCS)
NEXUS CRITICAL
OBJECTIVE (NCO)
NEXUS CRITICAL
OBJECTIVE (NCO)

12. 12
Methodology
• Collecting primary and secondary data
• Mapping policy goals and means
• Selecting policy objectives
• Assessing interactions at EU level
• Selecting NCOs; further investigation:
• Horizontal external coherence
• Level of integration of synergies and conflicts in policy docs
• Vertical external coherence

13. 13
Selected objectives
• Relevance of the
objectives to the
project
• Potential of the
objectives to have a
high number of
interactions
• 33 objectives across 5
policy sectors
EU WATER POLICY
W1 Achieve good water quality status
W2
Ensure sufficient supply of good quality surface water and groundwater for people’s needs, the economy and
the environment
W3 Increase water efficiency
W4 Reduce water consumption
W5 Assess and manage flood risk and mitigate flood effects
W6 Address and mitigate water scarcity and drought
EU ENERGY POLICY
E1 Increase production of biofuel
E2 Increase consumption of biofuel
E3 Increase production of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel)
E4 Increase consumption of energy from biomass (excluding biofuel)
E5 Increase hydro-energy production
E6 Increase hydro-energy consumption
E7 Increase energy efficiency
E8 Reduce energy consumption
E9 Push forward important energy infrastructure projects (grid, network, interconnectors, etc.)
E10 Achieve energy supply security
EU LAND USE POLICY
L1 Restoring degraded soils to a level of functionality consistent with at least current and intended use
L2 Prevent soil degradation
L3 Maintain and enhance forest cover
L4 Prevent indirect land use change from nature to productive use
EU FOOD AND AGRICULTURE POLICY
F1 Contribute to farm incomes (if farmers respect rules on environment, land management, soil protection, water
management, food safety, animal health and welfare - ‘cross-compliance’)
F2 Improve competitiveness of agricultural sector (including sector-specific support and international trade issues)
F3 Ensure provision of environmental public goods in the agriculture sector
F4 Support rural areas economy (employment, social fabric, local markets, diverse farming systems)
F5 Promote resource efficiency in the agriculture, food and forestry sectors
F6 Reduce and prevent food waste
F7 Reduce intake of animal protein in human diet (non-binding objective; expressed intention on a research phase)
EU CLIMATE POLICY
C1 Reduce GHGs emissions to keep global temperature increase within 2 degrees
C2 Increase efficiency of the transport system
C3 Support the development and uptake of low-carbon technology
C4 Support the development and uptake of safe CCS technology
C5 Incentivize more climate-friendly land use
C6 Promote adaptation in key vulnerable EU sectors and in MSs

14. 14
Scoring approach
• Scoring process:
• Individual scoring by two researchers
• Comparison of individual scoring
• Discussion of the most controversial interactions in a team of researchers
• Scoring criteria:
• What happens to objective X if we make progress on objective Y?
• Only direct interactions
• Specification of the context
• Justification of scores
• Sources of information:
• Expert knowledge
• Evidence of policy interactions available in the literature
• Information on bio-physical and socio-economic interactions provided by
SIM4NEXUS WP1

15. 15
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 L1 L2 L3 L4 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
W1 +2 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 -1/+2
W2 +2 -1 -1 +3 -1/+2 +3 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/+2 +2 -1/+2 -1/+1 +1
W3 +3 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +3 +3
W4 +1 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +2 +1
W5 -1/+1 -1/+1 0/+1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0/+1 +3
W6 +1 +3 +2 +3 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +1 +1 0/+1 +3
E1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 +3 +1 -1 -1 -3 -3 +2 -2 +1 -1 -1/+2 -1/0 -2 -2
E2 +3 -1/+2 -1 -1
E3 +3 +1 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/0 +2 -2
E4 +3 +2 -1
E5 -3 -2 -1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 -1 +2 -1 -1 +1
E6 +3 +2 -1
E7 +1 0/+2 0/+2 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +1 +2 +2 +1 +3 +3 +1 +3
E8 +1 +1 +2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +3 -1 +1 +2 +2 +3 +3 +1 +2
E9 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 0/+1 +2 -1/+1
E10 0/+1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 0/+2 -2 -1 -1
L1 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2
L2 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2
L3 +1 +2 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1/+1 +1 +2 -1/+2 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2
L4 +1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1 -2 +1 +1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +2 +3 -1 -1 +2 -1/+1 +2 +1 +1
F1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1/+1 +1 +1 -1/+1 +1 0/+1 +1 +1
F2 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 -1/+1 -1 -1 -1/0 -1/0 +2 -1 +1 +2 -1 +1 -1 -1
F3 +3 +3 +1 +2 -2 -2 -1/0 -1/0 +3 +3 +2 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +2 +2
F4 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 0/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1
F5 +1 +3 +2 0/+1 +3 +3 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 0/+1 +3 +1 0/+1
F6 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +1 +1
F7 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 -2/+2 -2 -1/+1 -1 +2 +1 +3 +1
C1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 -1 -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +3
C2 -1 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2
C3 -1/+1 -1/+1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +2 +1 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3
C4 -2 -2 -1 0/+1 0/+1 -2 +3 +3
C5 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 -1/+1 0/+1 +1 +1 +1 -1/+1 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +1 +1 +3 +1
C6 +1 +2 -1/+1 -1/+1 +3 +3 0/+1 +1 -2/+2 +3 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1 0/+1 +1
Screening matrix What happens to objective x → (affected)
If we make progress on objective y ↓(affec ng)

16. 16
Nexus critical goals (hotspots)
E1
W1
L1
C2
W3
W6
W5
W4
L2
L3
L4
F2
F7
C1
C3
C4
C5
C6
E10
E8
E5
F1
F5
F4
W2
F3
E7
NEXUS CRITICAL OBJECTIVE (E1) AND RELATED NEXUS
CRITICAL SYSTEM (E1 + DIRECT INTERACTIONS)
NEXUS CRITICAL OBJECTIVE (W2) AND RELATED NEXUS
CRITICAL SYSTEM (W2 + DIRECT INTERACTIONS)
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1/+2
+1
-1
-1/+2
-1/0
-2+2
-1/+2
+1
-1
0/+1
-1/+2
-1/+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+2
-2
+1
-2
+1
-1
-3
-1
-3
-1/+1
-1/+1
0/+1
-1
-2
-1/+1
-1/+1
+2
+3
+1
+1
+1
+2
+1
+2
+2
-1
+1
-2
+2 +2
-1/+2
+2
-1/+1
+3
+1
0/+1
+1
-2
-1/+1
-1/+1
F6
+1
+1

17. 17
Level of integration of E1 and W2 in policy
documents
Reference in renewables (E1)
policy documents to …
Water 2-3
Land 3
Food and Agriculture 2-3
Climate 3
Reference to W2 in policy
documents of…
Land 1-2
Energy 2-3
Food and Agriculture 3
Climate 1-2
E1 affecting NX W2 affected by the NX
0 = no integration 1 = low integration 2 = moderate integration 3 = strong integration

18. 18
Vertical coherence E1 and W2 with international policies
• E1 and W2 generally coherent with global
policies (SDGs, UNFCCC, UNEP, UNCCD, etc.)
• Effects of E1 on food security and consumer
food prices are weakly addressed in EU
policy (key target in SDGs)
• Social impacts of E1 on competition for land, water and other
natural resources in developing countries not mentioned in
EU policy
• Water footprints of mitigation alternatives mentioned by
UNEP but not by UNFCCC and EU nexus policy docs

19. 19
What can we tell policy-makers?
• More synergies than conflicts: coherence on paper
> problems arise in implementation
• E1, E5, F2, C4 can negatively affect NX > trade-offs
• W6, L1,L2, E7, E8, F3, F4, F5, F6,C1, C6 > if pursued with integrated
policies could have a wide range of positive effects in the NX
• W2 can benefit from an integrated policy approach in the NX
• EU policies for biofuels need to integrate global goals of food security,
consumer food prices and social impacts of competition for resources

20. 20
About the method
• Scoring system works but time consuming: wide range of
expertise required to score interactions; interpretation and
context crucial for results
• Network representation is useful addition to identify indirect
interactions; if representing more than two objectives at once it
becomes less readable
• Checking which policy documents acknowledge synergies and
trade-offs gives a deeper understanding of policy coherence than
only scoring interactions

21. 21
What’s next?
• Discuss scoring and results with stakeholders
• How synergies are exploited and conflict addressed in
implementation practices?
• Several crucial EU policy reviews (by 2020) offer
window of opportunity to integrate project findings in
policy discussion

22. For further information please consult
www.sim4nexus.eu,
follow us at @SIM4NEXUS
Thanks for your attention!
stefania.munaretto@pbl.nl