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Introduction to Theory of
Change for agricultural
development
Isabel	Vogel,	
SLU	
Tuesday	26	April	2016
Acknowledgements
This	presenta>on	is	adapted	from	material	produced	in	collabora>on	by	Isabel	Vogel,	
Irene	Guijt	(Learnin...
WELCOME
Aims and programme
•  Introduce	‘ToC	thinking’	
•  Step-wise	approach	to	ToC	
•  Demonstra>on	of	different	‘thinking	tools’...
Where are you on Theory of Change?
Drawing	on	five	years	of	
collabora>ve	prac>ce	with	
Irene	Guijt,	Marjan	Van	Es,	
Mauree...
Introductions
•  On	your	table,	introduce	yourself	to	the	
people	around	you	
•  Write	your	first	name	on	a	s>cky	label	and...
Expectations?
Discuss:	
•  Why	are	you	here	today?	
•  What	are	your	top	3	priori>es	for	the	
workshop	
•  Share	
Isabel	V...
WHAT IS TOC?
A	brief	overview
System Change
the
farmer
green – local
pink - national
blue – international
Nature of Systemic Change
•  long	>me	horizon	
•  unpredictable,	emergent,	non-linear,	feedback	
loops,	ongoing,	dynamic		...
Why ToC in development?
•  Development	programmes	oben	have	limited	
impact	
•  Nothing	works	the	same	in	every	context	
•...
See Only Part of the System
13
What are Theories of Change?
Theories	of	change	are	the	percep%ons,	ideas	and	
hypotheses	people	and	organisa>ons	have	abo...
Essence of ToC
Over and over
again…
ToC three aspects
•  Way	of	thinking	(overall	approach)	
•  Process	(doing	a	group-based	ToC	analysis)	
•  A	set	of	produc...
ToC as an approach
•  Theory-based	evalua>on	
•  	Intended	to	make	explicit	how	and	why	
change	happens,	for	whom,	in	what...
Theory of Change as a process
Social change practice –
Paolo Freire, participatory
approaches
An ongoing process of critic...
ToC as a living product
	
•  Theories	of	Change	come	in	all	
shapes,	no	‘right’	version	
•  Narra>ves	and	change	
pathway	...
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
Assumptions
Intervention	
A
Outcome	
B????
THEORY	 Philosophy	
Formal	theory	(academic)	
Programme	theory	(ToC)	
Personal	...
All swans are white
… until
you see a
black one
An assumption is …
a	convic>on	about	what	is	true		
or	accepted	as	true	
	
– shaped	by	values,	experiences,	knowledge,	bel...
Assumptions matter
1.  Surface	values,	build	teams	
2.  Improving	design	and	innova>on	
3.  Coordinated	and	focused	ac>on	...
What	makes	a	good	quality	ToC	approach?
Programme	
design	
Strategy	
revision	
Quality	
check	
Evalua>on	/	
strategic	learning	
design	
Situa>on-specific	process	o...
ToC and research for development
•  Complex	role	–	research,	capacity	
development	and	implementa>on?		
•  Complex	change	...
Source,	June	2014:	hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment-
Instrument.pdf	
IDRC’s approach: Resea...
Benefits of ToC thinking
•  Builds		common	understanding	of	how	and	why		you	do	what	you	
do	
•  Strengthens	the	clarity,	d...
Challenges with ToC
•  ToC	excessively	detailed	
•  Rigid	use	for	accountability	instead	of	
learning	
•  Discouraging	…	o...
ToC Thinking @ Different Levels
Project	Objec>ve	
Step	2.	Desired	
change	
Step	3.	Current	
situa%on	
Step	4.	Specific	
cha...
The relationship between ToC and donor reporting
	
	
	
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desire...
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
COFFEE
STEP 1: CLARIFY PURPOSE
FOR USING TOC
General Purposes for Toc
Purpose	 Examples	
Programme	design	 Analysis,	strategic	choices,	stakeholder	
involvement,	commu...
Case Study: Cambodia and pig farming
PURPOSE:		
To	use	ToC	thinking	to	develop	a	five	year	research	
project	in	the	Cambodi...
STEP 2, 3 AND 4: DESCRIBING
AND UNDERSTANDING CHANGE
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
Step 2: Desired Long Term Change
Essence	
•  Define	a	long-term	
transforma>on	
•  “Head	in	the	
clouds,	feet	on	the	
groun...
Step 2: Desired Long Term Change
Core	Ques>on	
How	ought	things	to	be	for	the	people	we	want	to	benefit,	in	
the	situa>on	w...
Useful questions are…
•  The	‘transforma>on’	is	not	always	obvious..	
•  Heavier,	healthier	pigs…	
– >So	what…?	
	->	So	th...
Desired change
	
By	2026,	small	scale	pig	farmers	are	able	to	
produce	good	quality	pork	to	high	volumes	
for	sale,	and	ha...
Desired Change: Assumptions
•  Why	is	this	change	desirable?	
•  Why	does	this	change	maper	
(worldview)?	
•  What	convic>...
STEP 3: RESEARCH AND
DESCRIBE CURRENT SITUATION
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
Step 3. Describe Current
Situation
Generate	broad	understanding	of	system	in	
which	the	desired	change	is	needed.	
Core	Qu...
Different ways of exploring the current
situation
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
Essen%al:	Ensure	wide	consulta%on	and	
ownership		
Acade...
Rich Pictures
Describe,	don’t	judge	or	priori)se
How to develop a rich picture
•  Place	several	flipcharts	so	everyone	can	easily	reach	it.		
•  Each	person	has	a	marker.	
...
Include ….
•  stakeholders	&	their	stakes	(interest	in,	influence	over,	affected	by)	
•  processes	between	elements	of	that	...
Step 3. Tasks & Outputs
	
a.  Draw	a	rich	picture	about	the	situa>on	for	which	the	change	is	
desired	
–  name	key	stakeho...
Dive Deeper with Power
•  Is	diverse	
•  It	can	be	visible,	hidden,	invisible	
•  One	can	have	power	over,	to,	with,	withi...
Dive deeper with Gender
•  What	gender	dynamics	are	at	play	here?	
•  What	gender	inequali>es	are	influencing	the	
system?	...
GENDER is created … and so
is its (in)equality
•  Gender	(in)equality	in	problem	analysis	influences	how	
we	see	what	maper...
Current Situation: Assumptions
•  Why	have	we	assessed	
the	situa>on	as	we	did?		
•  Why	are	these	the	
stakeholders	and	a...
STEP 4: IDENTIFY WHO/WHAT/
WHERE NEEDS TO CHANGE AND
HOW
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
ToC Thinking @ Different Levels
Project	Objec>ve	
Step	2.	Desired	
change	
Step	3.	Current	
situa%on	
Step	4.	Specific	
cha...
Step 4. Identify Specific Changes
Needed
Zoom	in	on	and	name	what	parts	of	the	current	
situa%on	need	changing.	
Core	Ques)...
Rich Pictures
What needs to change to support
your desired change?
Unstructured	current	
situa%on	
Is	now	….	
Is	now	….	
Is	now	….	
Is	now	….	
Who/what	needs	to	change	and	
how	
Set	of	impr...
Willing, Able, Allowed…
… to change behaviour?
•  Awareness
•  Knowledge
•  Attitude
•  Motivation
•  Skills
•  Opportunit...
Step 4. Tasks & Outputs
a.  Iden>fy	key	actors,	ins>tu>ons	and	systems,	
(e.g.	market	systems)	
b.  Iden>fy	who	needs	to	c...
Behaviour statements
•  Essen>al	for	the	desired	change	
•  An	actual	behaviour	of	a	specific	player	or	stakeholder	
	
Exam...
Step 4. Assumptions about
Specific Changes
•  Why	is	it	these	
stakeholders,	actors,	
groups,	en>>es	who	need	
to	change?	
...
Present like this ....
Desired
Change
Stakeholder	
and	behaviour	
change	to	
support	the	
desired	change	
Stakeholder	
and...
STEP 5: PRIORITISE FOCUS AND
MAP CHANGE PATHWAYS
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
Step 5: Prioritise your focus and map
pathways
Deciding	on	and	mapping	out	your	contribu%on	
in	the	next	5	years	
	
Core	q...
Step 5: Priorities and Pathways
Tasks	
a.  Priori>se	changes	and	stakeholders	
to	focus	on	–	3-5	per	group	
b.  Document	w...
Source,	June	2014:	hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment-
Instrument.pdf	
Use spheres of influenc...
Use criteria
Opportunities
Where	are	the	opportuni%es/challenges	and	leverage	points	in	the	
next	5	years?	
Mandate and ro...
Step 5: Priorities and Pathways
Tasks	
a.  Priori>se	changes	and	stakeholders	
to	focus	on	–	3-5	per	group	
b.  Document	w...
Output
a)  and	b)	
Priori>sed	selec>on	of	changes	
to	influence,	with	a	robust	
jus>fica>on	and	assump>ons	
	
3-5	changes	pe...
COFFEE
Step 5: Priorities and Pathways
c. Map your change pathway
Tools and Task
Map change pathway of specific
changes
Assumptio...
ToC Thinking @ Different Levels
Project	Objec>ve	
Step	2.	Desired	
change	
Step	3.	Current	
situa%on	
Step	4.	Specific	
cha...
Priority	change	
Change	
	Change	
	Change	
	Change	
	Change	
Assump)ons	 Assump;ons	
Assump;ons	
Assump)ons	
Assump)ons	
S...
Mapping task
•  Bring	your	priority	changes	and	assump>ons	
•  Volunteers	
– Changes	on	post-its	–	1	change	per	post-it,	s...
Assumptions
If	x	and	y	happens,	will	z	really	be	the	result?	Why?	
	
What	are	we	taking	for	granted?	
		
Are	the	steps	tog...
STEP 6: DEVELOP STRATEGIES
AND INTERVENTIONS
Step	1.	Clarify	
purpose	for	using	
ToC			
Step	2.	Describe	
desired	change	
Step	3.	
Research	and	
describe		
current	
si...
Priority	change	
Change	
	Change	
	Change	
	Change	
	Change	
Assump)ons	 Assump;ons	
Assump;ons	
Assump)ons	
Assump)ons	
S...
Step 6: Strategies
Task:	
Brainstorm:	
-  What	type	of	research	project	design	do	we	
need?	E.g.	programme	vs	single	study...
STEP 7: DEFINING PMEL
PRIORITIES AND PROCESS
Generic areas for research MEL
1.	Strategy	and	direc;on:	‘Are	we	doing	the	right	thing?’	
2.	Management	and	governance:	‘A...
ToC Quality Audit
Principles	 Weak		 Has	poten;al	 Reasonable	 Robust	
Comprehensive	
analysis	
	
Superficial,	
uncri>cal,	...
Close
Aims:		
•  Basic	understanding	of	ToC	approach	
•  Interest	and	enthusiasm!	
•  Reflec>ons	
•  Feedback	forms
Additional resources
•  ‘Hivos	Guide	to	ToC:	A	Stepwise	approach’,	Marjan	Van	Es,	Irene	Guijt	and	
Isabel	Vogel,	2015	
hpp...
THANK YOU!
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Isabel Vogel - Introduction to Theory of Change for agricultural development

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Isabel Vogel (independent consultant) about the assumptions and ideas about change and how it can come to fruition

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Isabel Vogel - Introduction to Theory of Change for agricultural development

  1. 1. Introduction to Theory of Change for agricultural development Isabel Vogel, SLU Tuesday 26 April 2016
  2. 2. Acknowledgements This presenta>on is adapted from material produced in collabora>on by Isabel Vogel, Irene Guijt (Learning by Design), Marjan Van Es (Hivo) and Maureen O’Flynn. Please contact Isabel Vogel info@isabelvogel.co.uk if you wish to reproduce any of it.
  3. 3. WELCOME
  4. 4. Aims and programme •  Introduce ‘ToC thinking’ •  Step-wise approach to ToC •  Demonstra>on of different ‘thinking tools’ •  Work with a prac>cal example •  Basic understanding of ToC approach •  Interest and enthusiasm!
  5. 5. Where are you on Theory of Change? Drawing on five years of collabora>ve prac>ce with Irene Guijt, Marjan Van Es, Maureen O’Flynn, Inigo Retolaza and others
  6. 6. Introductions •  On your table, introduce yourself to the people around you •  Write your first name on a s>cky label and choose an adjec>ve that describes how you feel or what you are, e.g. Inspiring Isabel •  Stand in a circle
  7. 7. Expectations? Discuss: •  Why are you here today? •  What are your top 3 priori>es for the workshop •  Share Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
  8. 8. WHAT IS TOC?
  9. 9. A brief overview
  10. 10. System Change the farmer green – local pink - national blue – international
  11. 11. Nature of Systemic Change •  long >me horizon •  unpredictable, emergent, non-linear, feedback loops, ongoing, dynamic •  mul>ple actors and perspec>ves •  contested: different interests, power rela>ons •  many strategic op>ons
  12. 12. Why ToC in development? •  Development programmes oben have limited impact •  Nothing works the same in every context •  Need to understand the specific dynamics in the context, the change we desire, and design accordingly •  Need to learn as we implement, because…
  13. 13. See Only Part of the System 13
  14. 14. What are Theories of Change? Theories of change are the percep%ons, ideas and hypotheses people and organisa>ons have about how change happens. These ‘theories’ can be conscious or unconscious and are based on personal beliefs and values, assump>ons and a necessarily limited, personal percep>on of reality. We need to bring these to the surface and cri>cally examine them to focus on change (not ac%ons). 14
  15. 15. Essence of ToC Over and over again…
  16. 16. ToC three aspects •  Way of thinking (overall approach) •  Process (doing a group-based ToC analysis) •  A set of products (narra>ves, change pathway diagrams) What will really change for real people?
  17. 17. ToC as an approach •  Theory-based evalua>on •  Intended to make explicit how and why change happens, for whom, in what context Intervention A Outcome B???? THEORY Philosophy Formal theory (academic) Programme theory (ToC) Personal beliefs, values, perspec;ves and assump;ons Specific contexts
  18. 18. Theory of Change as a process Social change practice – Paolo Freire, participatory approaches An ongoing process of critical reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the role our organisation can play in a specific change process
  19. 19. ToC as a living product •  Theories of Change come in all shapes, no ‘right’ version •  Narra>ves and change pathway diagrams •  Current assump>ons •  Ownership and buy in from all key stakeholders is essen;al Must be reviewed and revised based on cri;cal reflec;on, learning and adapta>on of our programme
  20. 20. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change Adapted from Van es et al 2015)
  21. 21. Assumptions Intervention A Outcome B???? THEORY Philosophy Formal theory (academic) Programme theory (ToC) Personal beliefs, values, perspec;ves and assump;ons
  22. 22. All swans are white … until you see a black one
  23. 23. An assumption is … a convic>on about what is true or accepted as true – shaped by values, experiences, knowledge, beliefs – oben implicit – true for some people for a period of >me in a certain place – about different things –context, actors, factors; related to pathways for change; opera>onal assump>ons
  24. 24. Assumptions matter 1.  Surface values, build teams 2.  Improving design and innova>on 3.  Coordinated and focused ac>on 4.  Adap>ve management and risk management 5.  Focus for evalua>on and learning 6.  Increased trust and credibility Adapted from “Working with Assump>ons”, Irene Guijt 2013
  25. 25. What makes a good quality ToC approach?
  26. 26. Programme design Strategy revision Quality check Evalua>on / strategic learning design Situa>on-specific process of steps, using diverse ‘tools for thought’ with relevant people Comprehensive analysis Power, gender lenses Assump>ons central Par>cipa>on in development Used dynamically Principles Purposes Process Narra>ve Visual MEL frameworks Plan to improve ToC Products
  27. 27. ToC and research for development •  Complex role – research, capacity development and implementa>on? •  Complex change process - mul>ple actors, significant >me-lags between research and change •  Scope and scale of research – from single studies to mul>-component, mul>-site and mul>-sector programmes •  What is your contribu>on: research outcome or development outcome?
  28. 28. Source, June 2014: hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment- Instrument.pdf IDRC’s approach: Research Quality + Research outcomes Development outcomes Implementa>on Research
  29. 29. Benefits of ToC thinking •  Builds common understanding of how and why you do what you do •  Strengthens the clarity, direc;on, effec;veness and focus of programmes •  Provides a framework for review, learning and re-design. •  Improves partnership •  Supports organisa;onal development •  Helps people communicate what they do so it can be more easily understood by others •  Empowers people to become more ac;ve and involved in programme design, implementa>on and learning
  30. 30. Challenges with ToC •  ToC excessively detailed •  Rigid use for accountability instead of learning •  Discouraging … overwhelming, impossible •  Drown in analysis vs. get to ac>on too soon •  Not enough consulta>on •  Never using the products again – no learning
  31. 31. ToC Thinking @ Different Levels Project Objec>ve Step 2. Desired change Step 3. Current situa%on Step 4. Specific changes needed Sphere of Influence Step 5. Priori%se focus and & change pathways Longer term Concern Step 6. Strategies ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Control Step 7. MEL Source: Van es et al, 2015
  32. 32. The relationship between ToC and donor reporting Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt What? How? Why? So what? ToC is for analysis and cri>cal reflec>on and accountability to stakeholders
  33. 33. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  34. 34. COFFEE
  35. 35. STEP 1: CLARIFY PURPOSE FOR USING TOC
  36. 36. General Purposes for Toc Purpose Examples Programme design Analysis, strategic choices, stakeholder involvement, communica>on Strategy revision Regular revisit ToC, review strategies in response to changes and new insights Quality review of exis>ng programme Improve quality, make assump>ons explicit, sharpen strategies Evalua>on Mid-term, end-term, reconstruc>on of ToC, validate assump>ons Strategic learning design Learning ques>ons, building evidence base, what works or not and under which condi>ons 36
  37. 37. Case Study: Cambodia and pig farming PURPOSE: To use ToC thinking to develop a five year research project in the Cambodian domes>c pig produc>on sector. Cambodia Overview Cambodia is a country emerging from conflict. It con>nues to struggle and faces numerous challenges and sociopoli>cal issues, including widespread poverty, pervasive corrup>on, lack of poli>cal freedoms, low human development, and a high rate of hunger. Cambodia has a popula>on of 16 M, and GDP/PPP is around 3 500 USD. While per capita income remains low compared to most neighbouring countries, Cambodia has one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, with strong annual growth in GDP the last decades of 7-8% annually. Agriculture remains the dominant economic sector, with strong growth in tex>les, construc>on, garments, and tourism leading to increased foreign investment and interna>onal trade. See Case Study hand-out. Photo G Ström
  38. 38. STEP 2, 3 AND 4: DESCRIBING AND UNDERSTANDING CHANGE
  39. 39. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  40. 40. Step 2: Desired Long Term Change Essence •  Define a long-term transforma>on •  “Head in the clouds, feet on the ground” •  Challenging and hard, stretching but just about reachable in 10-20 years’ >me
  41. 41. Step 2: Desired Long Term Change Core Ques>on How ought things to be for the people we want to benefit, in the situa>on we are trying to resolve? Task Write a people-oriented statement of change (not an abstract concept) 20 mins Think about… •  Who is the most important focus of the change? How would you like their lives to be in a posi>ve future situa>on? •  Statement should describe the desired transforma>on, with assump>ons •  Tangible, specific, >me-bound
  42. 42. Useful questions are… •  The ‘transforma>on’ is not always obvious.. •  Heavier, healthier pigs… – >So what…? -> So that...? Development is about well-being, environmentally sustainable, quality of life, equitable and inclusive transforma>ons [are these par>cular values??]
  43. 43. Desired change By 2026, small scale pig farmers are able to produce good quality pork to high volumes for sale, and have access to the animal health services, produc>on inputs and credit services they need to grow their business. Small-scale farmers have formed effec>ve and efficient producer associa>ons to support higher-volume produc>on to meet the domes>c market. They are able to share knowledge of technologies and prac>ces. They have good business outlets in other regions. Women farmers are able to take charge of pig produc>on, make their own choices about how they spend their profits, and are invited to par>cipate in community business associa>ons.
  44. 44. Desired Change: Assumptions •  Why is this change desirable? •  Why does this change maper (worldview)? •  What convic>ons about change is this based on? •  What social beliefs does this change build on and/or challenge? •  This change is desirable for marginalised people because…. •  This change maMers to us because… •  This transforma%on is based on the convic%on that change happens through… •  This change builds on/ challenges the following common beliefs…
  45. 45. STEP 3: RESEARCH AND DESCRIBE CURRENT SITUATION
  46. 46. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  47. 47. Step 3. Describe Current Situation Generate broad understanding of system in which the desired change is needed. Core Ques)on What does the current situa>on look like for which the desired change has been iden>fied?
  48. 48. Different ways of exploring the current situation Essen%al: Ensure wide consulta%on and ownership Academic research Context, situa>on, power gender analyses Workshop exercises e.g. •  Vision of success exercise •  Rich Picture analysis Consult the communi>es •  Success stories •  Focus group discussions •  PRA exercises More academic approach More PRA approach
  49. 49. Rich Pictures Describe, don’t judge or priori)se
  50. 50. How to develop a rich picture •  Place several flipcharts so everyone can easily reach it. •  Each person has a marker. •  Draw the people and key challenges in the centre, use the case study •  Start drawing current situa>on. –  Who are stake-holders and how do they influence, are affected by the issue? –  Draw aspects of context, causes and effects, other relevant social, economic, poli>cal, environmental features or issues –  Ins>tu>ons, structures, processes, inter-rela>onships, issues, conflicts, agreements, resources –  Draw linkages. •  Don’t discuss, just explain as you go.
  51. 51. Include …. •  stakeholders & their stakes (interest in, influence over, affected by) •  processes between elements of that structure •  nature of interrela>onships (e.g., strong, weak, fast, slow, conflicted, collabora>ve, direct, indirect) •  important aspects of situa>on that affect how stakeholders, stakes, structures and processes interact –  purposes, aspira>ons, goals –  mo>va>ons –  values and norms –  environmental aspects, e.g., a climate of opinion –  issues, conflicts, and agreements –  resources (e.g., people, money, tools, skills) –  geography
  52. 52. Step 3. Tasks & Outputs a.  Draw a rich picture about the situa>on for which the change is desired –  name key stakeholders & their stakes (interest in and influence over) –  Ins>tu>ons, structures, processes, inter-rela>onships, issues, conflicts, agreements, resources b.  Dive deeper by: –  analysing power rela>ons –  iden>fying gender dynamics c.  Discuss and write down assump>ons made We have 40 mins
  53. 53. Dive Deeper with Power •  Is diverse •  It can be visible, hidden, invisible •  One can have power over, to, with, within Reflect: Which forms of power and power dynamics are influencing the situa%on?
  54. 54. Dive deeper with Gender •  What gender dynamics are at play here? •  What gender inequali>es are influencing the system? •  What gender-differen>ated or gender-related opportuni>es are present?
  55. 55. GENDER is created … and so is its (in)equality •  Gender (in)equality in problem analysis influences how we see what mapers •  Gender-differen>ated needs, capaci>es, benefits, risks, burden… •  Not just about coun>ng women and men …
  56. 56. Current Situation: Assumptions •  Why have we assessed the situa>on as we did? •  Why are these the stakeholders and actors that maper? •  What do we judge specific influences as helping or hindering, par>cularly power and gender dynamics? 1.  We have included these stakeholders because…. 2.  We have iden%fied factors as helping or hindering because … 3.  We differ in the following assump%ons because…. 4.  Where relevant, do we have evidence that our assump%ons are true?
  57. 57. STEP 4: IDENTIFY WHO/WHAT/ WHERE NEEDS TO CHANGE AND HOW
  58. 58. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  59. 59. ToC Thinking @ Different Levels Project Objec>ve Step 2. Desired change Step 3. Current situa%on Step 4. Specific changes needed Sphere of Influence Step 5. Priori%se focus and & change pathways Longer term Concern Step 6. Strategies ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Control Step 7. MEL
  60. 60. Step 4. Identify Specific Changes Needed Zoom in on and name what parts of the current situa%on need changing. Core Ques)on Who and what needs to change in which way for the desired change to become possible?
  61. 61. Rich Pictures What needs to change to support your desired change?
  62. 62. Unstructured current situa%on Is now …. Is now …. Is now …. Is now …. Who/what needs to change and how Set of improved behaviours
  63. 63. Willing, Able, Allowed… … to change behaviour? •  Awareness •  Knowledge •  Attitude •  Motivation •  Skills •  Opportunity Hivos | 2014 63
  64. 64. Step 4. Tasks & Outputs a.  Iden>fy key actors, ins>tu>ons and systems, (e.g. market systems) b.  Iden>fy who needs to change in what way –  Develop a list of stakeholders/actors in systems –  Formulate in what way you would like to them to act, think, relate –  Choose 3-5 c.  Discuss and write down assump>ons made 40 mins
  65. 65. Behaviour statements •  Essen>al for the desired change •  An actual behaviour of a specific player or stakeholder Examples •  Min of Jus>ce ra>fies Conven>on on Violence Against Women and Girls •  Local agencies of the Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food proac>vely consult farmers’ groups on district-specific targets for agricultural extension •  Women producers and their husbands par>cipate in gender awareness and training
  66. 66. Step 4. Assumptions about Specific Changes •  Why is it these stakeholders, actors, groups, en>>es who need to change? •  What are we assuming about their needs, capaci>es, behaviours, rela>onships, recep>vity and mo>va>on to change? We assume the following about their: •  needs •  current capaci%es •  current behaviours •  rela%onships •  mo%va%on to change •  opportunity to change?
  67. 67. Present like this .... Desired Change Stakeholder and behaviour change to support the desired change Stakeholder and behaviour change to support the desired change Stakeholder and behaviour change to support the desired change Stakeholder and behaviour change to support the desired change Stakeholder and behaviour change to support the desired change Assump>on? Assump>on? Assump>on? Assump>on? Assump>on?
  68. 68. STEP 5: PRIORITISE FOCUS AND MAP CHANGE PATHWAYS
  69. 69. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  70. 70. Step 5: Prioritise your focus and map pathways Deciding on and mapping out your contribu%on in the next 5 years Core ques)on What changes will you influence, why and how in the next 5 years?
  71. 71. Step 5: Priorities and Pathways Tasks a.  Priori>se changes and stakeholders to focus on – 3-5 per group b.  Document why c.  (Map your change pathway) ASSUMPTIONS
  72. 72. Source, June 2014: hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment- Instrument.pdf Use spheres of influence Actor behaviour Partner Desired change Actor behaviour Actor behaviour Partner Stakeholders Stakeholders Your project Time-line?
  73. 73. Use criteria Opportunities Where are the opportuni%es/challenges and leverage points in the next 5 years? Mandate and role What is your legi%mate role in this system? Collaboration and influence Who has influence on the key actors? Who else is working on related agendas, similar/different to you? Who could you collaborate with and why? Your unique contribution What do you bring to the change process? E.g. convening, capacity development, research products Feasiblility What is your realis%c poten%al to influence the situa%on?
  74. 74. Step 5: Priorities and Pathways Tasks a.  Priori>se changes and stakeholders to focus on – 3-5 per group b.  Document why c.  (Map your change pathway) ASSUMPTIONS
  75. 75. Output a)  and b) Priori>sed selec>on of changes to influence, with a robust jus>fica>on and assump>ons 3-5 changes per group
  76. 76. COFFEE
  77. 77. Step 5: Priorities and Pathways c. Map your change pathway Tools and Task Map change pathway of specific changes Assumptions
  78. 78. ToC Thinking @ Different Levels Project Objec>ve Step 2. Desired change Step 3. Current situa%on Step 4. Specific changes needed Sphere of Influence Step 5. Priori%se focus and & change pathways Longer term Concern Step 6. Strategies ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Control Step 7. MEL
  79. 79. Priority change Change Change Change Change Change Assump)ons Assump;ons Assump;ons Assump)ons Assump)ons Strategies Desired Change
  80. 80. Mapping task •  Bring your priority changes and assump>ons •  Volunteers – Changes on post-its – 1 change per post-it, same colour – Assump>ons on post-its – 1 assump>ons per post- it, same colour •  Backwards mapping from priority change
  81. 81. Assumptions If x and y happens, will z really be the result? Why? What are we taking for granted? Are the steps together enough, if not what other suppor>ng factors are needed? What else might each step lead to - unintended consequences, posi>ve or nega>ve?
  82. 82. STEP 6: DEVELOP STRATEGIES AND INTERVENTIONS
  83. 83. Step 1. Clarify purpose for using ToC Step 2. Describe desired change Step 3. Research and describe current situa;on Step 4. Iden;fy who/ what/where needs to change to realise desired change Step 5. Priori;se focus and map change pathways Step 6. Develop strategies and interven;ons Step 7. Define MEL priori;es and process Step 8. Use ToC for cri;cal reflec;on to implement and adapt Theory of Change
  84. 84. Priority change Change Change Change Change Change Assump)ons Assump;ons Assump;ons Assump)ons Assump)ons Strategies Desired Change
  85. 85. Step 6: Strategies Task: Brainstorm: -  What type of research project design do we need? E.g. programme vs single study -  What is the demand for research in the relevant target groups (current/poten>al)? -  What communica>on/engagement is needed to influence behaviour change? -  What capacity building is needed? For whom? 20 mins
  86. 86. STEP 7: DEFINING PMEL PRIORITIES AND PROCESS
  87. 87. Generic areas for research MEL 1. Strategy and direc;on: ‘Are we doing the right thing?’ 2. Management and governance: ‘Are we implemen>ng the plan as effec>vely as possible?’ 3. Research products: ‘Are outputs audience-appropriate and do they meet the required standards?’ 4. Uptake: ‘Are people accessing and sharing our work?’ 5. Behaviour change, network change, other outcomes in ToC: ‘What kinds of effects or changes have the work contributed to?’ 6. Context: ‘How does the changing poli>cal, economic, social and organisa>onal climate affect our plans and intended outcomes? How should we adapt our programme?’ (Tina Pasanen and Louise Shaxson, ODI hpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/10284-design-monitoring-evalua>on-framework-policy-research- project)
  88. 88. ToC Quality Audit Principles Weak Has poten;al Reasonable Robust Comprehensive analysis Superficial, uncri>cal, business- as-usual Some new thinking, with big gaps in cri>cal thinking Cri>cal thought on most areas, unclear in some areas, mainly based on known strategies Cri>cal, clear, focused, considers wide range of perspec>ves, informa>on and strategies Power and gender aware No thought on power or gender dynamics Weak and/or par>al power or gender analysis Power and gender lens used but some areas or implica>ons s>ll underdeveloped Power and gender lenses clearly inform analysis and strategies Ar%culated assump%ons None except most basic/obvious Some but not systema>c, clear or cri>cal Fairly complete but not all well formulated Clear, comprehensive, cri>cal ones iden>fied Par%cipa%on Very few people involved ad hoc in formula>on or review Inten>onal inclusion of some players in formula>on or review Clear process for diverse input planned with wide par>cipa>on in some aspects but not fully realised Clear process implemented with cri>cal input from diverse relevant players Ac%ve use Collec>ng dust Used infrequently, on request Some proac>ve use but not updated Frequent use and upda>ng Van es et al, 2015
  89. 89. Close Aims: •  Basic understanding of ToC approach •  Interest and enthusiasm! •  Reflec>ons •  Feedback forms
  90. 90. Additional resources •  ‘Hivos Guide to ToC: A Stepwise approach’, Marjan Van Es, Irene Guijt and Isabel Vogel, 2015 hpp://www.theoryofchange.nl/resource/theory-change-thinking-prac>ce- stepwise-approach •  ‘Theories of Change: >me for a radical approach to learning in development’, Craig Valters, 2015 hpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/9883-theories-change->me-radical- approach-learning-development •  ‘How to design a monitoring and evalua>on framework for a policy research project’, Tina Pasanen and Louise Shaxson, 2016 hpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/10284-design-monitoring-evalua>on- framework-policy-research-project •  ‘A review of the use of ToC in interna>onal development’, Isabel Vogel 2012 hpps://www.gov.uk/government/news/dfid-research-review-of-the-use-of- theory-of-change-in-interna>onal-development
  91. 91. THANK YOU!

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